Episode 117

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Published on:

21st Feb 2023

Expectations Blown Away, Record Consumer Debt and Chris' Soapbox

Retail sales rose far more than expected in January as consumers persevered despite rising inflation pressures. According to the report by the COmmerce Department, advance retail sales for the month increased 3%, compared with expectations for a rise of 1.9%. Excluding autos, sales rose 2.3%, which is not adjusted for inflation. The ex-autos estimate was for a gain of 0.9%.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and try to determine what effect it will have on the economy and the seemingly ever-present inflation.


They discuss comments from St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, who said that continued Federal Reserve rate increases will “lock in” slowing inflation even with continued economic growth. He also says it's likely that the economy will slow and the unemployment rate rise towards its “longer-run natural level,” something economists define as consistent with stable inflation and in the case of the United States estimated by Fed policymakers as around 4%.


Chris and Saied look at data from mortgage technology and data provider Black Knight Inc. showing that some of the most popular pandemic boomtowns such as Phoenix and Seattle, as well as popular West Coast cities like San Jose and San Francisco, posted home price declines of more than 10% from their 2022 peaks.


They also offer some thoughts on a report from the Labor Department, which indicates that inflation rebounded in January at the wholesale level, as producer prices rose more than expected to start the year.


Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.


Enjoy!


What You’ll Learn in this Show:

  • Why Chris believes that home values have gone down, but we're not seeing accurate reporting of that fact.
  • Why the Fed's main tool for controlling monetary policy is the Fed funds rate.
  • The most opportune time for people to list their homes.
  • Why unemployment is often a by-product of the Fed raising interest rates.
  • And so much more...


Resources:

"CPI shows US inflation still sticky and slowing grudgingly in January" (article from MarketWatch)

"Fed's Bullard: Further rate increases would "lock in" disinflation" (article from Reuters)

"Zillow says the home price correction is winding down—here’s what 28 other forecast models have to say" (article from Fortune)

"Map: Here's where home prices are dropping the most" (article from Yahoo! Finance)

"Here’s the breakdown of the inflation report for January — in one chart" (article from CNBC)

"Retail sales jump 3% in January, smashing expectations despite inflation increase" (article from CNBC)

"Consumer debt hits record $16.9 trillion as delinquencies also rise" (article from CNBC)

"Wholesale prices rose 0.7% in January, more than expected, fueling inflation increase" (article from CNBC)

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About the Podcast

The Higher Standard
This isn’t a different standard, it’s the higher standard.
Welcome to the Higher Standard Podcast, where we give you ultra-premium, unfiltered truth when it comes to building your wealth and curating the lifestyle of your dreams. Your hosts; Chris Naghibi and Saied Omar here to help you distill the immense amount of information and disinformation out there on the interwebs and give you the opportunity to choose a higher standard for yourself. Sit back, relax your mind and get ready for a different kind of podcast where we elevate your baseline with crispy high-resolution audio. This isn't a different standard. It's the higher standard.

About your host

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Christopher Naghibi

Christopher M. Naghibi is the host and founder of The Higher Standard podcast — a rapidly growing media platform delivering unfiltered financial literacy, real-world entrepreneurship lessons and economic commentary for the modern era.

After nearly two decades in banking, including his most recent role as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of First Foundation Bank (NYSE: FFWM), Christopher stepped away from corporate life to build a brand rooted in truth, transparency, and modern money insights. While at First Foundation, he had executive oversight of credit, product development, depository services, retail banking, loan servicing, and commercial operations. His leadership helped scale the bank’s presence in multiple national markets from $0 to over $13 billion.

Christopher is a licensed attorney, real estate broker, and general building contractor (Class B), and he brings a rare blend of legal, operational and real estate expertise to everything he does. His early career spanned diverse lending platforms, including multifamily, commercial, private banking, and middle market lending — holding key roles at Impac Commercial Capital Corporation, U.S. Financial Services & Residential Realty, and First Fidelity Funding.

In addition to his media work, Christopher is the CEO of Black Crown Inc. and Black Crown Law APC, which oversee his private holdings and legal affairs.

He holds a Juris Doctorate from Trinity Law School, an MBA from American Heritage University, and two bachelor degrees. He is also a graduate of the Yale School of Management’s Global Executive Leadership Program.

A published author and sought-after speaker (unless it’s his son’s birthday), Christopher continues to advocate for financial empowerment. He’s worked pro bono with families in need, helped craft affordable housing programs through Habitat for Humanity, and was a founding board member of She Built This City — helping spark interest in construction and trades for women of all ages.