Iran War: Oil Prices, Fed Shakeup, Jobs Report & Crypto Lives
Episode 325 is what happens when a jobs report, crypto’s glow-up, Fed-chair musical chairs, and a live geopolitical powder keg all walk into the same podcast and nobody leaves with lower blood pressure. Chris and Saied tear into the bizarre disconnect between war headlines and market optimism, question whether Wall Street has confused “priced in” with “blindfolded,” break down oil, rates, and why replacing Powell with Warsh is a lot messier when inflation and recession risk are both lurking in the room, and still find time to laugh their way through the chaos like only THS can. In other words: a little macro, a little mayhem, and a strong reminder that just because the market is acting calm does not mean the world is.
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Transcript
Oh, yeah.
Speaker A:Cracking.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Even though they work for today, they're
Speaker B:a crypto brokerage exchange.
Speaker A:You know that now.
Speaker B:One of the.
Speaker B:One of the oldest ones.
Speaker A:You just read the notes.
Speaker A:Look at you.
Speaker A:Well, I suppose we should be podcasters.
Speaker B:I am a YouTuber.
Speaker B:At the end of the day, that's
Speaker A:also a weird statement.
Speaker A:Yeah, I don't know how I feel about that.
Speaker A:Don't, don't, don't.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah.
Speaker B:Welcome back to the number one financial literacy podcast in the world.
Speaker B:This is the higher standard.
Speaker B:Cue the ghost energy drink campop.
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Speaker A:I had a really inappropriate joke.
Speaker B:That's all.
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Speaker B:Christopher Nahi.
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Speaker B:Well, it all started way back.
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Speaker A:You missed the lob here.
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Speaker B:There's a lot to get into tonight.
Speaker A:A lot.
Speaker B:We have everything from the jobs report.
Speaker B:We have crypto news to get into.
Speaker B:But honestly, if we're going to be honest with ourselves, it's virtually impossible to do a show, to not talk about the geopolitical conflicts.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:I mean, we would be doing.
Speaker B:We'd be lying.
Speaker B:We wouldn't be honest.
Speaker B:We wouldn't be who we really are if we didn't talk about how this is impacting everything.
Speaker A:I thought we started with We're YouTubers.
Speaker A:Isn't lying and not being honest part of the job description?
Speaker B:That is for a majority of them.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Not us though.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:No, because we keep it.
Speaker A:We're the truth telling guy.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:As the kids say, we keep it
Speaker A:a buck one hundo.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:All right, look, so I, for those of you who don't know me well, I wake up every morning, usually around 3:30, 4:00 in the morning and I'm usually up for the rest of night.
Speaker B:I can validate that.
Speaker B:Yes, I do get those messages.
Speaker A:It's really inappropriate.
Speaker A:I apologize.
Speaker B:I enjoy it.
Speaker B:I love waking up to it.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Do you really?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I'll send you some news.
Speaker B:What did you say this?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And that's what I do.
Speaker A:A lot of my hardcore tweeting, I still call it tweeting is xing.
Speaker A:Doesn't make any sense to me because that also sounds like only fans adjacent.
Speaker A:So I can't.
Speaker A:I can't X at night.
Speaker A:You know what I mean?
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker B:Single X is weird.
Speaker A:Yeah, you do.
Speaker A:Oh, I axed all night long.
Speaker A:Did you what now?
Speaker A:Are you tired?
Speaker A:No.
Speaker B:So many jokes.
Speaker A:So many jokes.
Speaker A:So many skus.
Speaker A:So I.
Speaker A:The last couple nights have been.
Speaker A:So I should probably back this up.
Speaker A:Before the war, I. I was feeling a little overwhelmed with what I thought was likelihood of war leading up to it.
Speaker A:And.
Speaker A:And honestly I thought during the week that they attacked Venezuela and took out Maduro, that that was going to be the kickoff the Iranian war.
Speaker A:I actually sent texts to friends and
Speaker B:family saying I think immediately, right after
Speaker A:I thought that no, the war was gonna happen that weekend.
Speaker A:And they went after Maduro instead.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:It turns out in retrospect they were trying to clear political allegiances from, you know, ambassadors and whatnot from.
Speaker A:From the embassies.
Speaker A:And there was.
Speaker A:We found out later on that was what was going on in part.
Speaker A:And I'm sure knowing the location of the Iranian regime at the time they were.
Speaker A:They were looking to take out was part of it.
Speaker A:But.
Speaker B:And I also think though, with how that all turned out and how that entire situation with Venezuela de.
Speaker B:Escalated so quickly played a large factor into the reasoning, or should I say how it was sold to the majority on why this should be done now because maybe we can replicate that again.
Speaker A:You talking about Maduro?
Speaker B:No.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:How we were able to de.
Speaker B:Escalate that situation very quickly, get in and out fast and we could do this again here.
Speaker A:Well, and I would let me look back, looking back on it, there's, there's some problems and I talked a little bit about this in the live today and it's frustrating as hell.
Speaker A:So I'm going to give a big asterisk here.
Speaker A:If you're the sensitive kind of listener who doesn't like the fact that I go off on what may be considered to be conspiratorial on some level, this show's going to bother you.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:Because one of the things that I do is I spend a lot of time in these wee hours of the morning shout out for using the phrase we Hours.
Speaker B:We Hours.
Speaker A:We.
Speaker A:The way with the way the winds.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, those.
Speaker A:Little early.
Speaker A:I'm that guy.
Speaker A:I spent a lot of time kind of esoterically thinking about the, the economy and how things are going to play out because I'm legitimately interested in where the markets are going and I want to see if I'm right.
Speaker A:So looking back on the Maduro situation, it's pretty obvious that this was one of the largest crude oil supplies in the world.
Speaker A:That if we knew we were going to go into Iran, this presented an interesting opportunity with which we would have access to oil.
Speaker A:Now, we never got a lot of oil from Iran anyway.
Speaker A:About 80% of that went to China.
Speaker A:But it does give us leverage in oil conversations.
Speaker A:And the two largest crude oil refineries in the world happen to be in Louisiana and Texas.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:On the US Soil.
Speaker A:Then you have, okay, what happened in Mexico?
Speaker A:It seemed like an interesting distraction after a Supreme Court loss on tariffs.
Speaker A:And we've now ratcheted those tariffs up from 10% to 15%.
Speaker A:But we haven't actually implemented them yet.
Speaker A:They've just said they were going to do those things.
Speaker A:And then we go into Iran.
Speaker A:And I cautioned everybody with a pretty lengthy and somewhat inflammatory post that people should be hesitant to celebrate early that this was the beginning and it was just the beginning.
Speaker A:And that was met with a lot
Speaker B:of pushback, which I can't understand.
Speaker B:Yeah, you know, I mean, you, you take, you take this tactic with a country like that.
Speaker B:This is, this is existential for them.
Speaker B:This means everything to them.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:It's also an identity issue.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And I think that the, the as much as we talk about the show that there's been 15 years of artificial intra deflation, this prolonged period of prosperous time that people have forgotten what it's like to lose, they have this bravado where they really feel like, I'm gonna, I'm gonna crush it.
Speaker A:I always Crush it.
Speaker A:I always win.
Speaker A:Well, everybody's won the last 15 years, in part.
Speaker B:You could have invested in almost anything in one.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And I don't wanna.
Speaker A:I don't wanna be that generic with it and demonize people who, who are struggling because a lot of people out there who are struggling financially.
Speaker A:What I'll say is this has been one of the most prosperous runs in American history.
Speaker A:That run ended about a couple years ago, and now between wage inflation not keeping up with actual inflation, people are feeling the pinch.
Speaker A:So I'm not saying that people shouldn't feel difficult.
Speaker A:What I'm saying is over the last 15 years, we had a lot of success stories.
Speaker A:More than what I would call normal.
Speaker A:Yes.
Speaker A:So in this context, I have taken some time to look at some things and there's, there's some holes in a lot of the conversations and I want to plug some of those holes with questions and let people think those through.
Speaker B:I bet you do.
Speaker B:Thank you for doing it for me.
Speaker A:So you didn't catch the lob on the Pearl earlier?
Speaker B:Yeah, he saw the opening and he took it.
Speaker B:We plugged it.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Okay, Got it.
Speaker A:No, it's fine.
Speaker A:It's just good.
Speaker A:Yeah, we got to be more sexually referenced, right?
Speaker A:Jokes in order to get his attention, apparently.
Speaker A:My bad.
Speaker A:So there.
Speaker A:The US is now waging an air only war.
Speaker A:At this particular juncture in time, I have yet to see in my limited time on this planet a war where you can bomb somebody from the air only and liberate a people.
Speaker A:And I think that there's a disconnect between the differences of regime change and liberation.
Speaker A:I think a lot of Iranians were very happy to see the leader of the country, the religious leader, the supreme leader of the country to be taken out because of the quality of life they'd been afforded, they thought was terrible.
Speaker B:And granted, I do know my fair share of Iranians who do feel this way.
Speaker B:I do.
Speaker A:And I respect the hell out of it.
Speaker A:I think that's right.
Speaker A:Unfortunately, that is only the beginning.
Speaker A:Because if you don't change the regime out entirely, and I guess the US is killing them all off systematically.
Speaker B:It's also easier said than done when you're here versus there.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:You also.
Speaker A:It's three and a half times the size of Iraq.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Iraq was also a ground war.
Speaker A:The people in Iraq also waged war side by side.
Speaker A:But that's also easier to convince a populace to do because right now Iranians go outside.
Speaker A:There is not Americans with boots on the ground to prevent an evil regime and their military of stomping you out.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Whereas if there were Americans on the ground, which is a very sensationalized conversation, then at least they would feel more comfortable going outside, that they had somebody to fight side by side with them currently.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And that was kind of a lot of the thought process behind the scenes from a financial perspective.
Speaker A:One of the things on the show that I think is important to talk about is the straight of her MO's is a huge vein.
Speaker A:But it goes both ways.
Speaker B:I was going to take it there.
Speaker B:Yeah, I'm trying to be respectful here.
Speaker A:Huge vein going both ways.
Speaker A:Come on.
Speaker A:I'm giving away freebies here.
Speaker B:Not doing this with you today.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:Not on this topic.
Speaker A:All right.
Speaker A:All right.
Speaker A:So we saw the straight up hormones being threatened to shut down, but then Iran came out and said, we're going to let China go through.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:You use their own shipping vessels.
Speaker A:Their own shipping vessels.
Speaker A:Meanwhile, Lloyds of London canceled insurance policies on a lot of the tankers coming in and out of the Trader Mosque.
Speaker B:This is really an insurance problem.
Speaker A:An insurance problem.
Speaker A:It's a third party outside private insurance company problem.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:What like the, the reference I saw from or I read online that made a lot of sense is like if you got a Lamborghini and you drive it on a racetrack, you need a special type of insurance for it.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:But if that racetrack is on fire, you ain't getting that insurance.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Because they're not.
Speaker A:Their risk of loss, an insurance company is high enough for them to say, we are more likely to pay than not at this particular juncture.
Speaker A:So we're just not going to give you the insurance.
Speaker B:Exactly.
Speaker B:And then you can't afford to send those shipping vessels out because they're just weight.
Speaker A:Well, these companies have a business decision to make.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Are we going to take the risk of loss of sending.
Speaker A:And even before the insurance was pulled by Lloyds of London, a lot of the product movers using tankers had put those shipments on hold because they were concerned about what was going on in this region.
Speaker A:So now you've got Iran, who is striking out all the other participants in the region.
Speaker A:Not the US per se, but their bases in some of these places, everywhere from Abu Dhabi to Kuwait to the uae.
Speaker A:Doha, for example, Bahrain.
Speaker A:Yeah, a lot of these places are now getting hit.
Speaker A:And we've seen some really interesting conversations.
Speaker A:But what I thought was fascinating was then over the, over the course of the last couple days, you saw the Korean market just get devastated to the,
Speaker B:to the point where they had to put a stoppage.
Speaker A:That's right.
Speaker A:So in the US market has the same stop loss feature as well, which is what if.
Speaker A:I think it's about 8% enough to check originally.
Speaker A:If you want to check and see what the stop loss is on market trading activity.
Speaker A:So you want to see what the percentage is that the market has to go down before they put a stop loss.
Speaker A:And you'll see a different one for the Dow and the Nasdaq.
Speaker A:I want to say it's about 8%.
Speaker B:This is for the market as a whole.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:So what they do is let's say the indices, in this case the Korean indices, dropped 8% within a narrow window of time.
Speaker A:They stopped trading on it, then they're going to open trading back up.
Speaker A:They also do this on individual stocks by the way.
Speaker A:Yes.
Speaker A:So then they open trading back up and if you continue to see losses, they just shut the market down for the day.
Speaker B:Do companies, if it on, on specific companies.
Speaker B:This is just a tangent.
Speaker B:Do they get to like know, you know what that price is or is it a standard across the board?
Speaker B:As far as it's a percentage.
Speaker A:Percentage.
Speaker A:Percentage.
Speaker A:It's raw.
Speaker A:It's raw percentage movement.
Speaker A:It has nothing to do with the actual dollar price.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:So that being said, the stop losses are triggered there.
Speaker A:Okay, what do we got here?
Speaker B:South Korean stock market enforces a daily price limit of 30% for individual stocks, preventing them.
Speaker A:But it's like 8, 15, 20 something, right though.
Speaker B:Yeah, there it goes.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Additionally, a market wide circuit breaker system halts trading for 20 minutes.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:If the index drops by 8, 15 or 20%.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Level one, 8% drop for 20 minute halt.
Speaker B:Level two, 15 drop for another 20 minute halt.
Speaker B:Level three, if there's a 20% drop, trading seizes for the day.
Speaker A:So let's walk this in through in a timely perspective.
Speaker A:On Monday our market opened up with seemingly no scare, no activity, everything business as usual.
Speaker A:We actually had a pretty narrow tech led rally that day and it was strange.
Speaker A:At the same time the Fed was pump, pumping money into the ecosystem billions of dollars in because they said they were going to do this Fed line, non QE QE where they're pumping money in to help the banks who were going to be paying taxes for their clients.
Speaker A:So they were just really pumping some money in there.
Speaker A:We've seen some improvement in the Fed as a result of that.
Speaker A:Then on Tuesday we saw the market start to get really shaky, started to get kind of nervous, saw some volatility.
Speaker A:The vix, our synthetic Volatility index started to show signals of fear and volatility
Speaker B:went up to as high as like 25.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:The Vic at as high as 25, it's currently above 20 still, but barely above 20.
Speaker A:So it's come back down.
Speaker A:And then this morning.
Speaker A: t you were going to Vix is at: Speaker A:Okay, there you go.
Speaker A:Anything above 20 in my mind is heightened, but still.
Speaker A:And the synthetic volatility index for us is still in normal territory, but it's, it's barely there.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's our own volatility index that
Speaker A:you can catch on the lives proprietary baby.
Speaker B:Can't take.
Speaker B:It can't be manipulated.
Speaker A:I mean it really can.
Speaker A:Anybody's got AI, just make your own.
Speaker B:No, no, but ours can't be manipulated.
Speaker A:No, ours is unique.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Ours is straight.
Speaker A:No opinions, straight data driven and it's, I'm pretty proud of it.
Speaker B:But all facts, no cap.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I got to put together some model explanations on our, on a website we got to build in the future.
Speaker A:But I've just been busy.
Speaker A:So now we open up the market today, Wednesday, and we've seen all the Asian markets, Korean being the biggest statistical outlier dive.
Speaker A:And we thought, okay, well the US market's going to have a very similar reverberating effect in the economy.
Speaker A:We're going to start to finally see the impacts of fear in an economy.
Speaker A:And we didn't right before the market opened.
Speaker A:When I'm up at 3, 4 o' clock in the morning, I see statements all over social media talking about how Iran and the US the Iran vis a vis a third party proxy is talking to the US about possibly ending the war.
Speaker A:That turned out to not be true.
Speaker A:As a matter of fact, it turned out to be the opposite.
Speaker A:Statements that were made throughout the day.
Speaker A:But that calm made national headlines.
Speaker A:And because it made national headlines, it seems like the market opened up with this air of optimism.
Speaker A:To me that screamed market manipulation.
Speaker A:But also last night and this morning I saw, I heard some interesting things which had me very much questioning everything that I thought at this point in time.
Speaker A:From a financial perspective, Iran has said that to respect their relationship with China, they were going to open the Strait of Hermos to them only.
Speaker A:But then the US comes out and says they're going to use one of our funds, federal funds, to backstop insurance for boats going through the strait and they're going to use the US military to walk them through.
Speaker A:But then I'm like, wait, a minute.
Speaker A:If 80% of the oil coming through here goes to China and China's already passing through, who are we protecting and why?
Speaker A:So you start thinking through things logically and you think to yourself, well, these are desert regions.
Speaker B:And I think it's really more narrative driven than anything.
Speaker B:I was trying to make it seem like.
Speaker B:Because I think the story, it had come out that the US had offered, we will ensure the ships.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:And the vessels that go through.
Speaker B:And then phone calls were being made and that wasn't in fact the case.
Speaker A:And let me ask, let me just ask the broad question, which is may offend some, but I'm going to ask the question anyway.
Speaker A:How do you trust anything you see or hear?
Speaker B:I don't know.
Speaker B:I really don't know.
Speaker A:There's literally I.
Speaker A:Today on the live, I, I inadvertently played a spoof video.
Speaker B:I saw that.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And I mean, look, that's gonna happen though.
Speaker B:And that's, and that's always been the fear of the eye.
Speaker B:It wasn't too long ago when.
Speaker B:What do we got here?
Speaker B:Asian markets with China, India, Japan and South Korea being the top destinations.
Speaker B:Are you trying to show down here?
Speaker B:While the US receives as much smaller portion, approximately two and a half percent, the global and specifically Asian reliance on this route makes it a critical point of energy security.
Speaker B:Yeah, well, I mean, so I think there's roughly 100 million barrels that get passed through there globally.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:And 20 million that goes through the straight of hormones.
Speaker B:So 20 million barrels go through there.
Speaker B:And what's really important about, you know, the strait of hormones as far as the oil production goes is it sets, it sets the price in the market for what oil trades at.
Speaker B:And that's.
Speaker B:And that's the reliance.
Speaker B:But you're right, I don't know how you can trust anything because there wasn't too long ago when like there was a generated image that went out.
Speaker B:I can't remember what the image was.
Speaker B:But then markets tanked that day and then ended up rebounding by the end of the day.
Speaker B:But that's going to happen.
Speaker A:And I don't know if you guys saw this, but they also did this chart showing all the Israeli jets leaving Israel and going to Iran.
Speaker A:And like this map where they show these little dots kind of going everywhere and they basically making these circle routes and then they're still flying over Palestine.
Speaker A:So that war is still going on.
Speaker B:They're dealing with that.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:But getting no coverage in the media.
Speaker A:And I'm sitting here going like, this is strange.
Speaker A:And again, I'm not, I'm not taking sides, giving opinions.
Speaker A:I'm just saying like the Russia Ukraine war is still going on and getting little to no coverage at all.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:I mean these are active wars.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And I'm looking at the geopolitical unrest, the conf.
Speaker A:The conflict that's going on.
Speaker A:And the market today closed at a narrow tech led rally.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And.
Speaker B:And this is, and this is the problem.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:So I, I wrote it here for us to talk about.
Speaker B:The stock market reaction is not aligning with the increased recession risk and the bond market reaction that we've seen clear palpable disconnect.
Speaker A:And people.
Speaker A:So somebody today, I think you saw on the show came at me.
Speaker A:He's a YouTube watcher and you know, he's like, you know, you being upset about and you know.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And complaining about isn't going to.
Speaker B:You ranting about it.
Speaker B:What is it going to do for anybody?
Speaker B:It's like.
Speaker B:Well, hold on.
Speaker A:What you.
Speaker A:Again.
Speaker A:But shouldn't we be frustrated as a society that we have an irrational exuberance in the market?
Speaker A:We believe this market is incapable of failure.
Speaker B:Well, this is the.
Speaker B:And then.
Speaker B:And this is my point.
Speaker A:Or it's a toucan pop episode by the way.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:You got the sparkling water.
Speaker B:Not to be confused with the still liquid death.
Speaker A:Class.
Speaker A:Class.
Speaker A:Class.
Speaker A:Fancy.
Speaker B:Fancy.
Speaker B:This guy's so fancy, bro.
Speaker B:Pinkies up.
Speaker B:Pinkies up.
Speaker A:There you go.
Speaker B:There you go.
Speaker B:And this is my point.
Speaker B:The only rational justification that I could think of why this is the.
Speaker B:The market and S P has remained where it's at.
Speaker B:Is there.
Speaker B:It's really a quick de escalation has been priced in.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:But the White House is literally telling you it's going to be weeks.
Speaker B:But isn't.
Speaker B:Isn't that part in and of itself too is weird.
Speaker B:Like I have, I can't remember a time when they're like they're, they're putting a time limit on.
Speaker B:We'll be there for another three, four weeks.
Speaker A:What that to me is bold.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Like so is your default strategy.
Speaker A:No matter what happens, we're out in a couple weeks and if.
Speaker A:What is that?
Speaker A:What are you leaving the people there with the.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:The argument is it's just, it's going to be.
Speaker B:I mean I already believe it's too costly, but it's going to be too costly in three to four weeks.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:But again, again, financial show.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:So we have focusing on this.
Speaker A:GDP has been propped up by government spending.
Speaker A:The Fed has two mandates.
Speaker B:Jobs, instability, price.
Speaker A:Price stability.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Okay, we know that jobs, the report today came out.
Speaker A:We talked a little about that.
Speaker A:We expected 50,000.
Speaker A:We got 60 something thousand.
Speaker A:63, I think.
Speaker A:Let me, let me check the show notes because every once in a while I actually want to be accurate.
Speaker A:Because why would I want to be accurate?
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:63,000.
Speaker B:And then this is, this is.
Speaker A:You pull up an article on that, see if you can find something for Jill.
Speaker A:Sure.
Speaker A:So we had a better than expected job print, which I'm going to be honest is bullshit, but whatever I'm calling shenanigans.
Speaker A:Yeah, okay, we're this.
Speaker A:But the jobs numbers have been wrong for so long now.
Speaker A:People are like, oh, they're wrong.
Speaker A:But okay.
Speaker B:But this I feel like is a major misstep.
Speaker B:Okay, you got, you got your boy Kev, we're going to call him.
Speaker B:We got JP from the hood and we got your boy Kev.
Speaker A:Kevin Wash, we got to come up.
Speaker B:Better name your boy Kev.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:Come on.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Kevin Warshim later.
Speaker A:But private employers added 63,000 jobs in February.
Speaker A: wing for job gains since July: Speaker A:Construct and education, health services led growth.
Speaker A:Really?
Speaker A:Because last I checked, the deliveries in the market are for construction are low, like wildly low.
Speaker B:And we've already discovered or discussed on previous episodes that.
Speaker A:Where is this from?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Without the
Speaker A:ADP research.
Speaker A:Oh yeah, that's right.
Speaker B:Straight from the source.
Speaker A:Good job.
Speaker B:Boom.
Speaker A:Yeah,
Speaker B:but we've already discussed on previous shows that without the addition of the healthcare jobs, we would actually be at a loss over the, over the last year.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:But here's, here's what I think is a major misstep.
Speaker B:If the expectation is you're going to bring in a new Fed chair and possibly also replace Lisa Cook.
Speaker A:Maybe.
Speaker B:If that's the game plan.
Speaker A:Can you imagine being the executive branch losing the tariff situation and then losing Lisa Cook situation?
Speaker B:Yeah, I know.
Speaker A:Talk about getting kicked in both ding dings.
Speaker B:Well, I think losing, losing the tariff situation was always part of the plan.
Speaker B:We talked about that on the show.
Speaker B:That was part of the plan.
Speaker B:That was the, that was the goal.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:But this is a major misstep because you have Kevin Warsh coming in who you're saying that you want to replace Jerome Powell with someone that's going to cut interest rates right away.
Speaker B:But here's the problem.
Speaker B:You now have some.
Speaker B:You have a geopolitical conflict that has heightened recession risk.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Clear.
Speaker B:As clear as day.
Speaker A:If it's going to increase inflation near term, it's bottom Line.
Speaker B:It's going to.
Speaker B:And like, I don't want to even hear the word transitory.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:I don't even want to hear it.
Speaker A:It comes and it goes.
Speaker B:I don't, I don't come and go.
Speaker B:But you have heightened recession risk.
Speaker B:All the while you have positive jobs and positive gdp.
Speaker B:You don't have a leg to stand on to cut rates.
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:And if you look, if you play out the tariff situation.
Speaker A:So right now the market's going, okay, they're going to put 15% tariffs unilaterally.
Speaker A:They go, okay, well, tariffs are priced in.
Speaker A:Okay, fine.
Speaker A:A war is not priced in.
Speaker A:I'm sorry.
Speaker B:Yeah, come on.
Speaker A:This is not priced in.
Speaker A:How many billions of dollars are we spending a day?
Speaker A:Yeah, I'm saying billions.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And for the people that don't know, I mean this is days ago, like two days ago there was like three fighter jets that had already gone down.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And obviously rest in peace to the people that unfortunately passed in those situations.
Speaker B:Each one of those $100 million gone, evaporated, you know.
Speaker A:All right, we talked about this before the show.
Speaker A:I'm just going to do it.
Speaker B: As of March: Speaker B:Ongoing high intensity conflicts such as the war in Ukraine.
Speaker B:$127 million per day.
Speaker B:Active military deployments, such as a carrier strike group cost roughly six and a half million dollars per day.
Speaker B:Is this where our tariff revenue is going?
Speaker B:That's a lot of stimulus, bro.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:You're not getting those tax dollars.
Speaker B:And the, the bigger conversation here, which I don't know if we'll have enough to get into today, but the only reason why maybe there's even a little bit of comfort level with overspending and, and all this.
Speaker B:Well, first of all, our.
Speaker B:In our interest payments is cost currently more than our military defense.
Speaker B:That what we have to pay for.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So we're already way overpaying there.
Speaker B:But the reason, the whole reason why the US is comfortable with overspending by $2 trillion every single year is because you have the world reserve currency.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker B:You got ev.
Speaker B:Everybody, everybody is, is, has all has been playing, playing, playing your game.
Speaker B:I got some numbers here for you.
Speaker B:I don't know if you're ready for this dollarization.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker B:Countries around the world not, not using the US dollar anymore.
Speaker B: In: Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:74%.
Speaker B:As of right now, it's down to 49%.
Speaker A:Wow.
Speaker A:It's a big drop.
Speaker A:I didn't know that.
Speaker B:That's a huge drop.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:And that.
Speaker B:And that's.
Speaker B:That's the beginning, the process of getting out of the US dollar.
Speaker A:So that's where Ray Dalio's point really comes to hit home, where there's a new world order.
Speaker A:That's what he's referring to.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And that's part of this, part of every cycle.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:It's not something new.
Speaker B:It's just part of a cycle that he's eventually going to be right about that.
Speaker B:Whether it happens in two to three years, like he's claiming, maybe.
Speaker B:But eventually, yeah, it's going to happen.
Speaker A:You know, there's been photos that have come out of Iran where they've shown their drones in, like, underground tunnels and, like, bunkers.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:This whole conversation has been, they were a week away or two from a nuclear weapon, you know, for the last 20 years.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Why haven't they released a photo?
Speaker A:Why?
Speaker A:Just somebody standing next to a nuclear weapon or our nuclear plant.
Speaker B:I'm sorry, you've been threatened.
Speaker B:You've been threatening that they've had nuclear weapons for a very long time.
Speaker B:I mean, I feel like now we would have found out.
Speaker A:I'm just saying they're showing you their underground drones.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:They're showing you that they have this surplus they're not going to from an unknown facility.
Speaker A:Like, show a photo of them with a nuclear weapon and say, hey, world, we're serious.
Speaker A:Take a serious.
Speaker A:Or maybe they really don't have those capabilities.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:And in which case, what are we doing so.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:What are we doing?
Speaker A:Don't get me wrong.
Speaker A:Evil dictator, terrible regime change.
Speaker A:Fine.
Speaker A:Yeah, okay.
Speaker A:Like, if that's what we're in there to do, then just say that.
Speaker A:You know, don't we don't.
Speaker A:We don't need to fluff it up with, like, everything else.
Speaker A:I think the entire world would have been like, all right, you want to get rid of an evil dictator who's terrible to people?
Speaker A:That's your reason.
Speaker B:That's a tough sell, though.
Speaker A:It's a tough sell.
Speaker A:We do the exact same thing in Maduro.
Speaker A:I mean, let's be honest, we did the exact same thing with Maduro.
Speaker A:Literally popped him out and pop him out as wild.
Speaker A:But there was no.
Speaker A:There was no protest in the streets.
Speaker A:There was nothing.
Speaker A:You went in, you got him, like, mission, he's out, and then that's it.
Speaker A:In silence.
Speaker A:Yeah, right.
Speaker A:But they weren't looking for a regime Change.
Speaker A:They had a successor already lined up.
Speaker B:The problem is you got people, like, people in Congress already coming out like Rubio, saying other reasons why we went in.
Speaker A:Okay, fine.
Speaker A:But then, but then, okay, I'm just, I'm just gonna ask the tough questions, okay?
Speaker A:And I, I don't want anybody to be upset by it.
Speaker A:I'm sure I'm gonna piss somebody off.
Speaker A:Why do this during the holy month of Ramadan?
Speaker A:To, For a religious supreme leader, you literally are making him a martyr in that.
Speaker A:I mean, maybe the timing was right.
Speaker A:I, I, it just seemed personal.
Speaker A:That's all I'm saying.
Speaker A:Like, it, you, you could, I mean, three weeks earlier, two weeks earlier, not Ramadan.
Speaker A:You know what I mean?
Speaker A:Like, and it just seems like a really.
Speaker B:And, and I'm just, I'm just gonna say it, I'm gonna say it again.
Speaker B:Here's the thing.
Speaker B:We're not playing.
Speaker B:They're not even playing the same game.
Speaker B:You're going.
Speaker B:The plan is for you to go in and have a regime change.
Speaker B:The plan for them is to stay alive and stay in control of their land.
Speaker B:It's existential.
Speaker B:For them.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:You're not even playing the same game.
Speaker A:And then how do you get a people to unite and overthrow.
Speaker A:Well, the government.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:How do you, how do you get the people come out of, come out of their homes?
Speaker A:If you're bombing from the air only, how does that work?
Speaker B:And okay, we're bombing from the air.
Speaker B:You're bombing from the air only.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker B:And then here's my, here's my problem with the stock market and where it's at and how it's not aligned with everything.
Speaker B:How can you price in de escalation when you took out their supreme leader?
Speaker A:That's what I'm going with this.
Speaker B:You took out their supreme leader, who arguably could be a martyr.
Speaker A:Where is the market confidence coming from?
Speaker B:And the next name, next few name top officials have already been taken out.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:So who are you negotiating with for a quick de escalation?
Speaker A:Who's in charge?
Speaker A:I don't know.
Speaker A:And that's why, that's why, like, okay.
Speaker A:And I know inevitably someone's going to say, well, you didn't talk about this.
Speaker A:You didn't talk about that.
Speaker A:Here's the difference.
Speaker A:This country had not been involved and engaged in active military conflict that it should be labeled a war.
Speaker A:Technically, this time it is.
Speaker A:And wars typically have normalized responses in the markets.
Speaker A:Long term, it's actually good for soccer.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:A long term it is.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:So maybe help Maybe that's what we can get into.
Speaker B:So how would a normal market or a rational market like react to something like this?
Speaker B:What would happen to the treasuries?
Speaker A:Normally you would have fear that creeps into the market.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:When you have fear that creeps into the stock market, people go risk off, they start going, okay, I'm going to go into the safer asset classes because right now the future is slightly uncertain.
Speaker A:I don't know how long it's going to drag out.
Speaker B:What would be like a safer asset class.
Speaker B:So you keep it in the U.S. still, I think.
Speaker A:Okay, first of all you would go and say, okay look, I should carve out here.
Speaker A:This is the first time we've seen crypto involved in a U.
Speaker A:S based war set of circumstances.
Speaker A:We have seen crypto in other wars and in other countries where those countries will go into crypto as a hedge against their currency being devalued.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:You're seeing that in Iran apparently from the data that we're seeing pulled where crypto on the blockchain in that country is spiking up because people are pulling their money out of the Iranians ecosystem and putting in the crypto ecosystem.
Speaker A:Yeah, okay.
Speaker A:Which I guess in some ways makes a lot of sense.
Speaker A:I think it's probably a smart fiscal decision.
Speaker A:That being said, the US market is completely ignoring this.
Speaker A:As a matter of fact, the, the, the gas sector, energy and gas should be down.
Speaker A:Yeah, right.
Speaker A:And you should, you should see the 10 years starting to rise.
Speaker A:We saw the 10 year dip on Monday.
Speaker B:Yeah, you saw it, right?
Speaker B:You saw a dip now I think, I think the 10 years back up,
Speaker A:back up like 407.
Speaker B:Yeah, 407.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:But then you have the 30 year mortgages that are just back above.
Speaker A:I think it's like six or something.
Speaker A:607.
Speaker A:Six or something.
Speaker A:Which is again still a great rate relatively speaking.
Speaker B:But the 30 year treasuries at 4.7.
Speaker B:Yeah, I mean what's happening?
Speaker A:Honestly, I think there is a complete and total lack of appreciation of a possibility of a correction.
Speaker A:I think the market, this is going to sound like a broad statement.
Speaker A:I think the stock market is now buying its own hype and it's too big to fail.
Speaker A:Everybody is so invested in one another, it's so incestual now you can't have it fail.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And I honestly, I think with as much institutional money that's into the system now that, what, what did, what's the guy's name, sailor?
Speaker A:Oh, Michael Saylor.
Speaker B:Michael said.
Speaker B:What do you say about bitcoin, he's buying, he's like, go ahead, I'll buy way more than you could sell.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's the thought process of probably the institutional money.
Speaker B:Even if there was supposed to be a correction, we'll put more money in to make sure to float this thing.
Speaker B:Yeah, that, that's what I'm saying.
Speaker A:And that's what happens.
Speaker A:And it's happening over and over and over again.
Speaker A:And I look at this stuff and I'm just throwing up my hands.
Speaker A:I mean, so the guy today on the show who's asking me like, why are you, why are you like ranting about it?
Speaker A:Because it's illogical and illogical markets scare me.
Speaker B:So yeah, it means you shouldn't trust the headlines.
Speaker A:Well, and that's a whole different path we can go down too.
Speaker A:Like I'm so normally I post, I'll post something financially at night and then I'll post in the morning and then I'll post in the afternoon and I'll post again at night.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:And I go to this posting, son.
Speaker A:Yeah, I post a lot and it helps me just logically keep up with what's going on in the markets.
Speaker A:But I try to carve out anything that's political.
Speaker A:I mean there's something like.
Speaker A:For example, today the White House put together a program which we can talk about a little bit, but basically it's a rate payer program which basically makes the hyperscalers and AI companies pay and subsidize the growth of electrical needs.
Speaker A:Oh yeah.
Speaker A:The infrastructure.
Speaker A:And in theory, as they're building these new electrical buildings out and that it doesn't talk, it's not a federal mandate.
Speaker A:So how this gets enforced is still a question mark, nobody really knows.
Speaker A:But this program that the White House rolled out and talked about today, which is an interesting time to talk about this, where the AI companies and the hyperscalers will pay for the own electricity and any excess electricity will run off to the consumer and hopefully lower our costs.
Speaker A:Nice.
Speaker A:But basically it prevents, it's in theory should prevent us, the consumer from paying too much from electricity perspective.
Speaker B:And it should probably keep people out from their city council meetings, from, from voting against having these data centers.
Speaker A:And it's sensational if it works, but again, not a federal mandate, a program.
Speaker A:Who oversees this program?
Speaker A:Who enforces this program?
Speaker A:What are the rules?
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Sayed, I've got a new program.
Speaker A:I got it.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Mac Mini, Mac Mini.
Speaker A:As an AI agent, Head of ratepayer program.
Speaker A:Put a sticker on it.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, call it Donald J.
Speaker B:Exactly.
Speaker A:Donald J.
Speaker A:Agent.
Speaker A:Dj.
Speaker A:Dj.
Speaker A:Anyway, you know what's funny?
Speaker A:I was thinking the other day, I was getting out of the shower, I look at myself naked in the mirror and I thought to myself, where is the Rock?
Speaker A:What happened to him?
Speaker A:Remember they were talking about him running for president, political office for a while?
Speaker B:That's.
Speaker B:That's what you thought?
Speaker A:Yeah, I'm like the Rock.
Speaker B:You.
Speaker A:What happened to dj?
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker B:Like, they lost a lot of weight, bro.
Speaker A:He did lose a lot of weight.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Was that, was that a health reason or.
Speaker B:He did it for a role.
Speaker A:I think he did it for a role.
Speaker A:But then he also decided that, that, you know, over long term that it's gonna be better for him.
Speaker A:Okay, but at the same time, what's his face?
Speaker A:The other guy did it.
Speaker A:The.
Speaker B:The Dave Batista.
Speaker A:Dave Batista did it too.
Speaker A:Dave Batista.
Speaker A:Hey, man, I'm be honest with you.
Speaker A:I. I don't know about what your, your selective choices are in men, but he's a good looking dude, man.
Speaker A:Like, his style game is all right.
Speaker A:He's not a good looking, like physically guy, but he's.
Speaker A:His style game is tight.
Speaker B:You have, yeah, you.
Speaker B:You have a bias, though.
Speaker A:Why?
Speaker A:Because Filipino.
Speaker B:No, because he's guardian of the galaxy.
Speaker B:That's.
Speaker B:That's your thing.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:That.
Speaker A:Because Marvel related.
Speaker B:No, yeah, that's that.
Speaker B:I know you have a bias.
Speaker A:I didn't like Black Adam.
Speaker A:I thought that was.
Speaker B:I never saw it.
Speaker A:No, you don't say.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:I don't even.
Speaker B:I don't even know the storyline.
Speaker A:It's basically like he's Superman but bald.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Oh, and that didn't do well.
Speaker B:We already got Superman.
Speaker B:We don't need you.
Speaker A:No, no, it's a Marvel.
Speaker A:The DC character and it, it was a whole thing there, but basically it did not go as planned.
Speaker A:Got it from a production standpoint, but it is, it's a good superhero.
Speaker A:I look, I'm in all the corny stuff, but whatever.
Speaker A:But anyway, so I was getting out of the shower, looking at myself, looking in the mirror, thinking about dj.
Speaker A:Then I was like, what happened?
Speaker A:Remember they were talking about him being president for a long time, running for office and all that stuff, and he was actually giving interviews, talking about it.
Speaker B:It's wild.
Speaker B:I mean, he could get a lot of votes.
Speaker A:And then I think, imagine.
Speaker B:But imagine the rallies.
Speaker B:If DJT can hold host a rally like that, what do you think the Rock could do?
Speaker B:Yeah, he's got years of experience.
Speaker B:Yes.
Speaker B:You know, he's coming out one time.
Speaker B:At least one time.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Oh, what's your opinion?
Speaker B:It doesn't matter what your opinion is.
Speaker A:We're terrible people.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Somewhere someone's listening to this, like really cussing us out.
Speaker A:Probably planning to go on the next live and tell me off.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And if you're that person, I can't wait.
Speaker B:Yeah, we're waiting for it.
Speaker A:All right, so the question remains, are we in markets resilient or are we just in denial?
Speaker A:And I, I really don't know.
Speaker A:The Reuters reported a tech led rebound today.
Speaker A:I covered it on the live show.
Speaker A:The stock market to my mind is completely disconnected and frankly I don't think we are correctly pricing this.
Speaker A:I think we're ignoring the second hand inflation risks that are real.
Speaker A:Because no matter what you think politically about a war, even if it stops tomorrow, and I don't see that happening, you still have inflation that's going to come up and cause an increase in the inflation numbers.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And how's the Fed going to fix that?
Speaker A:They're going to cut rates or are they going to increase rates?
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:As of right now, the March meeting is over 97% probability of not making a change to the rates.
Speaker A:I think that's the right call.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's the right call for sure.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So I mean, first of all it's the only call, I mean that they would be able to justify given all the data points that have come out.
Speaker B:But I mean I would anticipate at least somewhat of a dip in the not so distant future.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:Dip in what?
Speaker B:The market as a whole?
Speaker A:Yeah, I think so.
Speaker B:So that my message, my message behind that would be like to not panic, sell to like that, that should be the, that should be the expectation of
Speaker A:the messed up part is, the part that bothers me a great deal is I've said on this show more times than I can count, you know, say I want to see the housing market go down.
Speaker A:What's the catalyst?
Speaker A:And you go, I don't know.
Speaker A:And I go out, we see, we settle these problems and we go, I don't know.
Speaker A:And we go, but you know, if there could be a catalyst.
Speaker A:But until such time as there is one, I don't know.
Speaker A:Right, right.
Speaker A:And then if you would have told me independent of all this, hey Chris, what's going to make the stock market go down?
Speaker A:And I go, I don't.
Speaker A:Maybe a war.
Speaker A:I would have thought a war would fucking bring it down.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And the fact that it's not coming down.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:That the fear in the market, which is still evident by the vix.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:The fear gauge.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:Is saying people are more afraid today than they were yesterday.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Is not enough to bring this down.
Speaker A:What's going to bring the market down?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Please enlighten me.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Is it going to be Nvidia missing earnings finally?
Speaker A:That's gonna, that's gonna do it.
Speaker A:I mean, I, I just.
Speaker A:And how is that worse than a war?
Speaker B:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker B:Because it's literally propping up the entire stock market.
Speaker A:It makes no sense.
Speaker A:Then I see this disinformation campaign in the morning and I'm going, like, okay, what?
Speaker A:Like, then I'm.
Speaker A:I think it was, the quote was.
Speaker A:It came from the New York Times.
Speaker B:Now you can't just the New York Times anymore.
Speaker A:I don't know.
Speaker A:Do I have to, like, see, like, somebody speaking and even then do I trust it?
Speaker A:I don't know.
Speaker A:Yeah, like just.
Speaker A:It just feels wrong.
Speaker B:What could be like the equivalent, like blue, old school blue check mark for a video, you know?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I don't know.
Speaker B:There's nothing you could be able to create.
Speaker A:Nothing you can do.
Speaker A:Yeah, everything.
Speaker A:Because you're not watching live events.
Speaker A:And even if you do watch a live event, you can, you can kind of mirror that.
Speaker B:So I. Yeah, that's.
Speaker B:That's the only way to me, in my opinion, is it's got to be live.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:That's the only counter to all this.
Speaker B:It has to be live.
Speaker A:Unfortunately.
Speaker A:I agree.
Speaker A:So I watched you.
Speaker B:But then, even then you got, you got Jim Carrey impersonators out there and you're like, what is going on?
Speaker A:Here's the crazy part about that.
Speaker A:I still don't know if that was an impersonator or not.
Speaker B:Nah, come on.
Speaker A:Jim Carrey came out and made a statement.
Speaker B:No, no, no, no.
Speaker B:That was.
Speaker B:Come on.
Speaker A:I know.
Speaker B:You saw Nine Days, nine Days earlier.
Speaker B:Nine Days.
Speaker B:You say he got, like, hair extensions.
Speaker A:I'm saying it doesn't make any sense.
Speaker A:How did that guy get into the event if Jim Carrey himself did an RSVP for it?
Speaker A:Well.
Speaker B:Oh, he probably did RSVP for it
Speaker A:and it didn't show up.
Speaker B:Yeah, dude, it's so easy.
Speaker B:You've seen that guy who acted as a Klay Thompson for the Golden State warriors and just walked into the gym and went out to the.
Speaker B:It's so easy.
Speaker A:But here's the thing.
Speaker A:It's.
Speaker A:Klay Thompson was supposed to be there.
Speaker B:So I'm saying Jim Carrey was probably
Speaker A:supposed to be there and then just didn't show up.
Speaker B:Yeah, probably.
Speaker B:He probably sent the guy on his own.
Speaker A:What do you mean?
Speaker B:Come on.
Speaker B:Are we gonna act like people don't have doubles?
Speaker A:I get that.
Speaker B:Go do.
Speaker B:Go do my performance for me.
Speaker B:Come on.
Speaker B:Go, Lip.
Speaker B:Sing it for me.
Speaker B:That's happened.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Akon's different, though.
Speaker A:Akon's just.
Speaker B:What's wrong?
Speaker A:He's entrepreneur, bro.
Speaker A:His brother looked just like him.
Speaker A:He's like, look, bro, we can both do performances at the same time.
Speaker A:Make money as entrepreneurial, bro.
Speaker A:He's thinking outside the box.
Speaker B:There used to be.
Speaker B:I don't know if there's still play, but there's these two twins in the NBA.
Speaker B:I think the Morris brothers.
Speaker B:They have.
Speaker B:They look.
Speaker B:They're identical twins and they have arm sleeves and they all have.
Speaker B:They have matching arm sleeve tattoos.
Speaker B:It's all matching, bro.
Speaker B:He's like, hey, you want to fill in for me tonight?
Speaker B:I don't want to play tonight.
Speaker B:That could easily happen.
Speaker A:But they're both on different teams.
Speaker A:All right.
Speaker B:They're all.
Speaker B:Yeah, they both made the league.
Speaker B:That's the only difference.
Speaker A:Yeah, it's a little bit harder that way.
Speaker A:I mean, not split a check, though.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's good.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I don't think I'd want to do that if I had a sibling.
Speaker A:Oh, these two guys.
Speaker B:These two guys.
Speaker A:Yeah, they look very much alike.
Speaker A:Do they have the same tattoos in both arms?
Speaker B:Same tattoos, both arms.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Good for them.
Speaker B:Good for them.
Speaker A:They're both playing the Suns at one point.
Speaker B:They did.
Speaker B:I think they're out of the league now.
Speaker A:Can you imagine playing, playing with your brother on a pro team?
Speaker B:I mean, that's.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's gotta feel good.
Speaker A:That's gotta feel good.
Speaker B:Damn it.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Geez.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Following my brother.
Speaker B:Oh, Shout out to BBC.
Speaker B:It's from BBC.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:First of all, they aren't the same height.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:I don't think you catch the joke.
Speaker A:I get the joke.
Speaker B:Oh, yeah.
Speaker B:Oh, I got one with the tattoos.
Speaker B:They're pretty much similar.
Speaker B:Not pretty much.
Speaker B:They are.
Speaker A:What's the district?
Speaker B:D.C. huh?
Speaker B:Oh, the district.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:That was the.
Speaker B:The Washington team.
Speaker B:So that was when they were on different teams.
Speaker B:Okay, there's that.
Speaker A:So Kevin Marsh got nominated today, officially.
Speaker A:We knew that was coming.
Speaker A:I think the White House formally nominated.
Speaker A:Nominated him today to replace Jerome Powell.
Speaker A:But Jerome Powell obviously ends.
Speaker A:Term ends in mid May.
Speaker B:What's the incentive for him?
Speaker A:For who?
Speaker B:Kevin Warsh.
Speaker B:Why are you taking this?
Speaker A:It's a popular job.
Speaker B:Why would you do this?
Speaker A:This is a headache Bro, it's a career builder, man.
Speaker A:It really.
Speaker B:I don't feel like it's building any kind of career for drone power right now.
Speaker B:It's dumb for him.
Speaker B:After this, it's over.
Speaker A:No, he'll write books.
Speaker A:He'll go on tours.
Speaker B:Oh, yeah.
Speaker B:Maybe he'll get a book deal for sure.
Speaker A:Private planes.
Speaker A:Might wind up in a pool with a sultan.
Speaker A:You never know.
Speaker A:When they asked Bill Clinton, why did you go?
Speaker B:Why was he smiling at the photos, though?
Speaker A:Because he was looking back.
Speaker B:He looked back, he's like, oh, I remember this one.
Speaker A:I think.
Speaker A:I think the reason why is because he knew the story was so ridiculous.
Speaker B:Did you see the look on his face?
Speaker B:He's looking at him like.
Speaker A:Because I'll tell you the story exactly how he said it.
Speaker A:Why'd you go in the pool?
Speaker A:And he goes, well, you know, I
Speaker B:checked into the hotel, and this ain't right, bro.
Speaker A:And the sultan had told me to go to the pool.
Speaker B:Hey, when the sultan tells you to go to the pool, you.
Speaker A:So I went to the pool, right?
Speaker A:Which, let's be honest, if a sultan.
Speaker A:Caution goes, bro, dude.
Speaker A:Guy.
Speaker A:Bro, dude, Gabro.
Speaker B:Because that's how they talk, right?
Speaker A:I don't know.
Speaker A:I'm just, you know.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Trying to make it funny.
Speaker A:You need to go to pool, bro.
Speaker A:You have to.
Speaker A:You got to go, bro.
Speaker B:You got to see my pool.
Speaker B:You've never seen a pool like this, right?
Speaker A:That's code, right?
Speaker B:You got to know what's in the pool.
Speaker B:You just gotta go, like.
Speaker A:You know, like, that ain't.
Speaker A:He's sending stuff.
Speaker B:Hold on, hold on.
Speaker B:It's also not his first rodeo.
Speaker A:Yeah, no, he's.
Speaker A:He admitted, like, how many.
Speaker A:How many billionaire jets have you been on?
Speaker A:And he goes, he's gotta.
Speaker A:Wait.
Speaker B:I know him.
Speaker B:I know him.
Speaker A:You gotta add.
Speaker B:You gotta account for a little bit of memory loss.
Speaker B:I got a couple more there.
Speaker A:Five or six.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Lots of billionaires doesn't.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:I was like, bruh, just.
Speaker A:Everybody got Jess now.
Speaker A:You just can't count them.
Speaker A:It's just, what the hell?
Speaker A:And again, there's pictures of him in the pool, and Jelaine Maxwell's, like, two a couple feet from him, and he's just sitting back and smiling, and, like, everybody's asking him the context of this, and he's smiling while giving the interview.
Speaker A:And meanwhile, his wife's the Hillary Clinton woman.
Speaker A:They released photos of her.
Speaker B:She just went.
Speaker A:And she went off, slammed her hand on the table and walked out.
Speaker A:And.
Speaker A:God, the world is such a Weird place right now.
Speaker A:It's so emotionally discouraging.
Speaker B:I think it's emotionally discouraging.
Speaker B:And honestly, with everything that's been just.
Speaker B:Let's just look back at the last five to six years since the pandemic and everything that's been coming out, right.
Speaker B:So many major.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's such a bad look.
Speaker A:Yeah, look, he's legit.
Speaker A:Oh, he's laughing.
Speaker B:Come on, bro.
Speaker B:Rocking.
Speaker B:Rocking.
Speaker B:The Apple Ultra, too, is wild with those.
Speaker A:Crazy.
Speaker A:With the orange tracking, health issues with
Speaker B:the orange band, dude.
Speaker A:It's just like, look, I'm like, y'.
Speaker A:All.
Speaker A:Just like, y'.
Speaker A:All.
Speaker B:Mine's different, though.
Speaker B:And then here's Hillary all pissed off.
Speaker A:Yeah, I know.
Speaker A:She slammed the table, dude.
Speaker A:She was pissed.
Speaker A:And honestly, in her defense, they.
Speaker A:They released photos of her during this interview of her doing stuff, which is dirty pool.
Speaker A:If you're going to interview and you get.
Speaker A:Finally get on the stand to answer questions, like, why are you going to go the extra distance of releasing photos of her while she's there?
Speaker A:I mean, it's just like, it's.
Speaker A:You're throwing salt in the wound.
Speaker A:You got enough to ask her some pretty provocative questions.
Speaker A:Just ask provocative questions.
Speaker A:You know, I'm sure it's not gonna be as fun as, the sultan told me to go to the pool.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:But since, like, just go back, like, the last five, six years, with all the different, like, headlines that have come out, all the headline risks to the market and everything.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:I feel like it's kind of like what I.
Speaker B:My.
Speaker B:My cousin who went through, like, med school, and I talked to him about it, and all the different things that he's seen during residency and all the different rotations that he's done, you know, he's.
Speaker B:He's gone and he's like.
Speaker B:They've had to, like, amputate people's legs because of, like, diabetes and.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And.
Speaker B:And you just see so much.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And you're now desensitized.
Speaker B:I got no feeling towards anything.
Speaker A:You know, I feel like that's the information flow.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker B:That's the.
Speaker B:You know, and that's what it feels.
Speaker B:And that's the only justification that I have for.
Speaker B:Why hasn't the market dipped?
Speaker B:Because people are just like, I don't.
Speaker A:I.
Speaker B:It's.
Speaker B:It's hard to keep up.
Speaker B:How can you keep up with.
Speaker A:About money?
Speaker A:Is that.
Speaker A:Was that what you're sentiment?
Speaker B:No, it's not that.
Speaker B:I don't care.
Speaker B:It's about money.
Speaker B:My sentiment is like, I've.
Speaker B:I.
Speaker B:We've experienced so much in the, in the last like five, six years that it didn't.
Speaker B:Nothing hurts.
Speaker B:So let's just keep riding it.
Speaker A:Okay?
Speaker A:But that, that's not a strategy.
Speaker B:I'm not saying it's a strategy.
Speaker B:I'm just saying they're not even thinking about it.
Speaker A:No.
Speaker B:At least the every everyday investor.
Speaker B:And then you already know the institutionally, they've taken the emotion out of everything.
Speaker B:They're just waiting to see how the, how the market reacts.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:It's all derivative driven.
Speaker B:So they're not going to come out and like self correct.
Speaker B:Hey, money's flowing, keep it going.
Speaker A:And yeah.
Speaker A:And it's so now like you have Claude code, which came out with their wealth advisory like codec and now wealth advisory agent services.
Speaker A:So now do you really need a wealth advisor for you or can Claude do that?
Speaker A:I mean it's such a weird time too.
Speaker A:And then today in the news, Kraken, which is a crypto firm, got the first official access to the banks Fed routing system.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:The core payment system.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:What does that mean for everyone?
Speaker B:So like that's got to be a major deal.
Speaker A:Well, so let's back it up here.
Speaker A:I don't believe this is going to be a very.
Speaker A:There's going to be a lot of people who are going to apply for this because it's a sensational thing in the headlines.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And Jamie Dimon did kind of dare people.
Speaker A:He was like, you know, you want to be a bank, be a bank.
Speaker A:When they're like, all right pal, we're a bank.
Speaker A:Because now what's up?
Speaker B:They have a Kraken, which is a brokerage.
Speaker B:Like you can have a brokerage account online for your crypto.
Speaker B:They have a banking arm.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And today, the same day, Coinbase is now trading stocks.
Speaker A:Okay, I look at that as a bit of an asterisk here.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:To me that looks like they're just adopting the Robinhood model.
Speaker A:Robinhood started off as a stock trading platform that got into crypto and try to democratize the space by offering free trading.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:Coinbase was a crypto firm that got into stocks trying to democratize the space and have some crossover.
Speaker A:So they're just trying to stop, decline, bleed and use a platform.
Speaker A:It's very similar.
Speaker B:But it wasn't too long ago that they, they got hacked.
Speaker A:Right, Coinbase.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:Let me again, security protocols are what they are.
Speaker A:You're going to get attacked.
Speaker A:It's just the modern world that we're in.
Speaker A:But the Kraken Getting access to the Fed system is significantly more important.
Speaker A:But I look at this and go, okay, there's going to be a rush of applications of people trying to get similar bank charters in the crypto space.
Speaker A:Now that's going to happen.
Speaker A:Just expect that number one.
Speaker A:But over the long term this is not going to happen consistently.
Speaker A:Because here's a problem.
Speaker A:If you're in the crypto world, you've got a fundamental disconnect to what happens in the real world.
Speaker A:And that is the know your customer kyc.
Speaker B:A lot of people don't know what that means yet.
Speaker A:So the KYC process for banks you have a duty and a federal requirement to ask questions, source of wealth, source of funds when making loans to prevent money laundering, Prevent money Money Laundering act
Speaker B:and the bank system.
Speaker A:So like secrecy act, bsa, aml.
Speaker B:This is ways for bankers can't skirt the system and just accept money in and they'll have to answer to like regulators on like how do you, how, how did you vet this out to make sure that this is all clean?
Speaker A:And there's slightly different requirements for the deposit side as there are for the lending side.
Speaker A:But we know lending and crypto also go hand in hand as well.
Speaker A:And one of the things that a lot of crypto holders want to do is find a way to get a loan so they don't have to sell on the crypto and they get a loan on the assets they own.
Speaker A:They don't pay income tax on it and it's a benefit to them to do it that way.
Speaker A:Structured that way.
Speaker B:Well it wasn't too long ago too right where banks were now allowing to account for crypto on your balance sheet to maybe apply towards your net worth.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:To qualify for the loan.
Speaker A:That's right.
Speaker A:And then which is just which is
Speaker B:a portion of the requirement to qualify for a loan.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So you have this world where I think the crypto firms have romanticized the idea of having access to the Fed system system.
Speaker A:Having access to that system means you have to fulfill the requirements.
Speaker A:Now according to the the White House, they're going to make some of these rules a lot more easy to work through for banks and for crypto companies.
Speaker A:But here's the way this works.
Speaker A:If you're a tech company and you're a non bank lender, for example, your compliance burden is way lighter than somebody who's in the banking sphere and has federal regulators in your building frequently.
Speaker B:Do you feel like that should be the case or should it be equal?
Speaker B:Is there justification for it?
Speaker A:Well look at the private credit market as a proxy for what we're talking about.
Speaker A:Banks under the Dodd Frank act have an ability to, to follow ability to repay rule.
Speaker A:They have a, they have to follow this path.
Speaker B:You have to show that the person can actually repay the loan.
Speaker A:That's right.
Speaker A:And they have to document and evidence this.
Speaker A:They can't have implied or expressed.
Speaker A:You know, I'm blanking on the name implied or expressed.
Speaker A:Biased.
Speaker A:They can't discriminate.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So they have to do all this extra work.
Speaker A:But they also have to verify source of wealth, source of funds.
Speaker A:If you're coming at all this cash, you have to verify where it came from.
Speaker A:They have these requirements.
Speaker A:And then if you, we all know about the CTR rule, currency transaction reports, you bring in more than $10,000 in cash, they're going to report you for via currency transaction report.
Speaker A:There's also sars, suspicious activity reports where if you're doing something weird in a bank, a bank has a requirement to file a suspicious activity report, also known as a SAR.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B: rule, you take a: Speaker A:want to option to the current banking system, you gotta follow all these protocols that, that requires a lot more resources and a lot more compliance burden.
Speaker A:And I'm sorry, AI ain't there yet.
Speaker A:So I think a lot of these crypto firms are getting into this space going okay, we want to do this.
Speaker A:Okay, well you're also putting yourself at regulatory risk number one.
Speaker A:And now you've got to eat into your earnings because you have all these extra people and systems you have to put in place in order to ensure that your protocols align with the banking system.
Speaker A:Yeah, a lot easier said than done.
Speaker A:And I don't want to name any names, but I have been asked to participate with very, very well known financial companies on helping them get bank charters.
Speaker A:And once they realize how big of a burden this is, everyone that I've ever talked to has been like, nope, I'm out, out of this because I worth the headache.
Speaker A:Because banking will use something, do something called banking as a service where they will sell their bank's services to you as a service.
Speaker A:And then you say, for example, Robinhood has a bank behind them and that bank is the one who's using their services, are using.
Speaker A:But Robinhood runs you through their services.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Apple did this with their credit cards.
Speaker A:Where they got banking as a service doing was Goldman Sachs.
Speaker B:Yes.
Speaker A:And that relationship didn't work out.
Speaker A:Gee, I wonder why.
Speaker A:You know, and the reason why they're selling them a service.
Speaker A:Apple doesn't have their own bank.
Speaker A:It makes more sense for Apple to have their own bank, but it's very costly, very compliance heavy.
Speaker A:And then you've got regulatory exams.
Speaker A:When a large bank program, they're there
Speaker B:all the time, then you can't discriminate either.
Speaker A:And if you're one of these bigger companies, $10 billion in assets or more, they're there all the time.
Speaker B:Right, Exactly.
Speaker A:At least right now anyway.
Speaker A:Yeah, it changes a little bit.
Speaker B:Yeah, they're locked in and they're, they're in there like swimwear.
Speaker A:So in the private credit world, they decided to take on additional credit risk that banks could not take on.
Speaker A:But they get paid more interest for it.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:They're sacrificing credit quality for rate.
Speaker B:Win win.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:It's a win win for them until credit deteriorates.
Speaker A:Then banks who have been unable to take those types of risks, high leverage loans, for example, they don't have the same default percentages as the private credit market is likely to have in the not too distant future.
Speaker A:And that's what all the scuttlebutt has been about.
Speaker A:Hey, these guys are out here making all these wild loans and it's because they don't have the regulatory oversight the banks do.
Speaker A:So now crypto companies are entering that sphere, and I fear that they don't understand what they're getting themselves into to.
Speaker A:Okay, it's a lot sexier in theory than it is in execution, but maybe
Speaker B:the idea of just adding another layer of legitimacy means more to them right now.
Speaker A:Maybe, maybe.
Speaker A:I think, unfortunately, we like it or not, the crypto Sphere has enough ETFs and institutional people who have adopted in that they need that ecosystem to work.
Speaker A:And you know what?
Speaker A:I'm here for it.
Speaker A:I hope that it does.
Speaker A:I hope that regulatory oversight and crypto come together and they coalesce in a world.
Speaker A:Because to me, that gets you closer to the blockchain, and to me that's the value.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:A ubiquitous blockchain worldwide, which can track records.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:We all have Social Security numbers.
Speaker A:There are things tied to our Social Security numbers every single day that no one, no one knows your name.
Speaker A:And social, you try to keep those separate, you try to keep them hidden.
Speaker A:But the fact of the matter is, why don't we all have crypto wallets that match our socials?
Speaker A:Yeah, seems like a pretty easy install.
Speaker B:I know.
Speaker B:Come on, Elon.
Speaker A:Yeah, I'm just saying, like this Isn't like rocket science.
Speaker A:You know, you put in some, you know, your own, like four digit code at the end of it and that's your, that's your crypto blockchain wallet.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:I'm just saying, like some of this stuff just doesn't make any sense.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:You know, they're going to do that with the AI agents and the bots.
Speaker A:What do you mean?
Speaker B:They're going to have their own, their own accounts, their own socials.
Speaker A:They'll all be registered to blockchain.
Speaker B:Yeah, they'll all be registered to the blockchain Blockchain.
Speaker A:So you'll know.
Speaker A:I mean, because here's the problem is, is I think in the future you're going to wind up having companies that are five employees, right?
Speaker A:You're going to have a CEO, right?
Speaker A:You're going to have a, a CTO Chief Technology Officer.
Speaker A:You're going to have three people who maintain a huge cluster of AI agents.
Speaker B:I mean, didn't you tell me recently, Meta is rolling this out and eliminating their middle management?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:So Meta, Meta's taken and Mark Zuckerberg's made plenty of public statements about this.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:So this is not like fodder for me, just like jumping in a theory.
Speaker B:This is part of the game plan.
Speaker A:This is part of the game plan he's talked about.
Speaker A: This is: Speaker A:But he's basically saying that if you're a middle manager at the company, right, you're either going to be managing what Instead of being 12 people, it's going to be like 50 people.
Speaker A:Because you have AI assisting you, they have AI assisting them.
Speaker A:So now we're expecting more volume out of you as a middle manager and there's going to be less middle management.
Speaker A:He wants a much flatter organization.
Speaker A:I think that is going to be how large companies function.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:You're going to get rid of his middle as middle management is why?
Speaker A:If you have AI assisting you, how many.
Speaker A:Let's be honest, okay, let's be emotionally, intellectually honest.
Speaker A:If you work for a large company in your corporate America, right, And you walk around the office at any given time, are people always head down working?
Speaker B:No.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:But with the advancement of technology, technology is allowed the employee to become more efficient, right?
Speaker A:So if employees are more efficient, they have more time.
Speaker A:So their work output should either be greater or their capacity to do more work should be greater.
Speaker A:So you need to maximize that.
Speaker A:And in Zuckerberg's world, that means you're going to have more responsibilities.
Speaker B:God, worse.
Speaker B:Than the NFL.
Speaker B:The no Fun League.
Speaker B:No fun.
Speaker A:I. I don't understand the reference.
Speaker A:Can.
Speaker B:They can't have any fun.
Speaker B:No celebrations.
Speaker B:Fine for everything.
Speaker A:Really?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:No dancing the end zones or anything.
Speaker B:I mean, though.
Speaker B:Yeah, they do, but it's.
Speaker B:Come on, let them get a little bit more creative.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:I feel like they're trying to make it family friendly.
Speaker A:What?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:You know, you're a cabin.
Speaker A:A lot of sexual dances these days.
Speaker B:What's wrong with the gritty?
Speaker B:You can't do the gritty.
Speaker A:I don't even know what that is.
Speaker B:Stop it.
Speaker A:What's the gritty?
Speaker A:The gritty.
Speaker B:You gotta do it now, man.
Speaker A:Oh.
Speaker A:Stand up.
Speaker A:Do it.
Speaker A:Camera's on.
Speaker B:Camera's off.
Speaker A:Do it.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:No good.
Speaker A:I'll.
Speaker B:I'll leave that to Adam.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I don't know that it's.
Speaker A:But I'm very deeply worried about the future.
Speaker B:So wait, what's the.
Speaker A:What.
Speaker B:So what's the next hurdle or the next step for Kraken?
Speaker B:Now that they have access to the Fed payment systems?
Speaker A:They already have their approval, so now it's just implementing.
Speaker A:It's just implementing the structure, rolling out products that go along with it.
Speaker A:And then, I mean, to be honest with you, I don't fully understand why they need it.
Speaker A:And I've been in this business a long time.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And I guess if you want to have people wire money in and there's other vehicles with which to do this, I. I don't know what.
Speaker B:Because on their plat, on their platform, you could take dollars and convert it to crypto and.
Speaker B:And also vice versa, back and forth.
Speaker B:Now, did they have a wallet?
Speaker B:You know, if they have a.
Speaker A:You.
Speaker B:You can store and hold your.
Speaker B:Your money there too?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Now, they can offer checking, savings accounts and do all that too.
Speaker A:They could send.
Speaker A:You can send wires.
Speaker A:There's just a.
Speaker A:You bypass one or two extra steps.
Speaker A:But do I.
Speaker A:Do I think it's worth the regulatory burden?
Speaker A:I mean, not really.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Is it great pr.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I did not even know what Kraken's logo looked like yesterday.
Speaker A:Now I know exactly who they are.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Why them?
Speaker A:Because their name is dope or the Kraken.
Speaker B:What's cracking?
Speaker A:Nah, it's not us.
Speaker B:No, we're cracking.
Speaker B:That's not that.
Speaker A:We can make a.
Speaker B:We.
Speaker A:We could make.
Speaker B:We could do a commercial.
Speaker A:This is Saeed.
Speaker A:He's clapping cheeks.
Speaker A:I'm Chris.
Speaker B:Say he's clapping cheeks.
Speaker A:I'm over here.
Speaker B:Cracking cheeks.
Speaker B:That's so good.
Speaker A:That's a commercial.
Speaker A:You'll Never forget, brother.
Speaker A:That's so unbelievably good.
Speaker B:Sponsor the show Kraken.
Speaker B:Yeah,
Speaker A:I could, I couldn't do, I couldn't do an advertising that's laying over there.
Speaker B:He's clapping.
Speaker B:Jeez.
Speaker A:Over here.
Speaker A:Cracking.
Speaker A:This show is brought to you by Kraken, where you can clap some cheeks.
Speaker A:Oh, God,
Speaker B:I don't know.
Speaker B:I don't know.
Speaker A:Yeah, I don't know if I can take a mic.
Speaker B:I don't know if I can do
Speaker A:anything after that TV timeout.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah, we'll put you on time out.
Speaker B:You got anything?
Speaker B:Nah, you, you guys have got it all cracking up in there.
Speaker A:He's trying to wiggle out of the show.
Speaker A:In my defense, I didn't turn the air on on purpose.
Speaker A:I'm trying to heat him up.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:He's wearing a jacket.
Speaker A:It's hot, man.
Speaker B:I'm wearing a long sleeve too.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I'm roasting both of you guys out here.
Speaker A:Make sure these guys look moist while they're getting their cheese clap.
Speaker A:I'm literally crying.
Speaker B:Oh, my God.
Speaker B:Last I in Christ is Sam Zell.
Speaker A:So now that we're towards the last hour of, you know, the show and we're in towards the last couple minutes of it and you want to admit to the audience what you did before I walked in here, you dirty mouth bastard.
Speaker B:What did I do?
Speaker A:You burped some nasty.
Speaker A:You can't prove that.
Speaker A:Prove it.
Speaker A:That's Iranian food.
Speaker A:Prove it for sure.
Speaker A:I could smell it.
Speaker B:Oh, wait, hold on.
Speaker B:Africans have Cooper too.
Speaker A:Do you really?
Speaker A:Oh, yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:I just, I tried.
Speaker B:I, I, I, I said it was Cuba because that's all you would understand it.
Speaker B:But I mean, it was kebab.
Speaker A:Okay, yeah.
Speaker A:You can smell it.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:It is the one food where it tastes amazing.
Speaker A:But in your car or on your breath, if you have, if you have,
Speaker B:if you have, if you have kebab or kubide and you are planning to meet with people, other, meet with people
Speaker A:later, don't do it.
Speaker B:Honestly, that's, that's like, it's insulting.
Speaker B:That's grounds for, like, not being friends anymore.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Which by the way, you just did, dude.
Speaker B:Absolutely.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Jill, he is not our friend.
Speaker B:Honestly, it's, it's a complete lack of respect for, for the people you're meeting with.
Speaker A:I can co sign that.
Speaker A:Can you hold on?
Speaker B:Well, I'm in a different room, so I didn't smell it.
Speaker B:I respected him enough to wait.
Speaker B:I knew I wanted you to deal with this.
Speaker A:I had to Febreze the entire room because of you.
Speaker A:Yeah, you know what?
Speaker A:I'm turning the heat up right now.
Speaker A:I'm gonna turn the heat on right now.
Speaker A:Make sure you roast you a little bit.
Speaker B:Hey, shout out to all the listeners that tuned into today's Live.
Speaker B:Today's Live was really good.
Speaker B: Monday, Wednesday, Fridays at: Speaker B:We've built out a lot of really, really cool charts.
Speaker B:Chart work is amazing on there.
Speaker B:Phenomenal.
Speaker A:Is it?
Speaker A:I'm trying to get better.
Speaker A:One of the things I got to do is I got to buy and
Speaker B:enjoy while it lasts.
Speaker B:Yeah, enjoy while it lasts because that thing is eventually going to go behind a paywall.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Well, I gotta.
Speaker A:So I gotta build a model.
Speaker A:The, the alpha model.
Speaker A:I gotta.
Speaker A:Well, I've already built a model.
Speaker A:I've got to program the model, have our agentic AI cut in.
Speaker A:I've got to buy a device which plug the current setup, which will give us real time transitions in video.
Speaker A:And then I'm building out a separate network to put all this stuff on so that it runs 24 7.
Speaker A:Because one of the things we do right now is really actually pull data into the server during the actual live show hours.
Speaker A:So I'll start, I'll start the server up about 30 minutes for a show, then I'll end it about 30 minutes after a show.
Speaker A:And that gives me the data set that I'm using, the beta, the whole thing.
Speaker A:But.
Speaker A:And then I found a way to.
Speaker A:Right now I'm paying for APIs for X, which ironically the API calls for X to.
Speaker A:To pull data from X's tweets is more expensive than the API calls for Claude.
Speaker A:Oh, wow.
Speaker A:Which is, when you think about it, I'm getting reasoning data from Claude, analytical data, versus just pulling down otherwise publicly available data on X.
Speaker A:And for some reason, X just costs more.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's weird, right?
Speaker B:Yeah, that sounds weird.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:But that's the way it works right now.
Speaker A:And I found a way to reduce the overhead cost.
Speaker A:It was actually.
Speaker A:That's Elon, a new cloudbot function which they now can scrape any site and it's undetectable as a bot.
Speaker B:And what was that?
Speaker B:Van Damme needs to be their, their spokesperson.
Speaker A:Yeah, I'm Claude.
Speaker B:100.
Speaker B:100%.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I come to the cloud bot.
Speaker A:I'm the German cloud bots.
Speaker A:Hi.
Speaker B:And it was like not too long ago, right where the Pentagon striked a deal with OpenAI.
Speaker A:Struck a deal, which, by the way, was dirty, bro.
Speaker B:Dirty work.
Speaker A:Dario over at Anthropic goes, yeah, man, we're not gonna do that.
Speaker A:We have ethical morals.
Speaker A:And then Sam Altman goes, we don't.
Speaker A:Yeah, we're in.
Speaker B:Yeah, I'm in.
Speaker A:And then he backpedal the next day and goes, yeah, but we.
Speaker A:Well, we have the same ethical morals Anthropic does.
Speaker A:What, do I sign this contract?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And the reason why he started backpedaling a little bit was because the next day, uninstalls of OpenAI jumped 300%.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's right.
Speaker A:It seems a little financially motivated is all I'm saying.
Speaker B:Of course.
Speaker B:I mean, if you watch the last show, it just fits right in.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:A lot of people like the last show, the AI show.
Speaker A:I like that one.
Speaker B:A lot of people like that one.
Speaker A:I didn't like because I got angry and like.
Speaker A:Salty.
Speaker B:Visceral.
Speaker A:Visceral.
Speaker B:Yeah, you were a little.
Speaker B:You were a little angry.
Speaker A:I mean, it's complete.
Speaker B:Just a wee bit.
Speaker A:It's a little bit.
Speaker A:It's a lot of.
Speaker B:It's hard, man.
Speaker B:It's hard to.
Speaker B:To see where it all goes from here on, how this all plays out.
Speaker A:So let the show on something that.
Speaker A:Here's.
Speaker A:Look, I get asked a lot about AI.
Speaker A:As a matter of fact, one of the CPAs next door comes over all the time.
Speaker A:We have these, like, deep philosophical conversations about AI.
Speaker A:And I've resided to the fact that it doesn't matter what you do.
Speaker A:You could be a doctor, you could be a lawyer, you could be a banker, you could be in healthcare, you could be in fitness, as a trainer.
Speaker A:It really does not matter what you do.
Speaker A:All of us need to get comfortable with AI.
Speaker A:Yeah, we need to play with it, we need to build with it.
Speaker A:We need to understand it.
Speaker A:You need to understand AI.
Speaker A:And I've said this on previous shows, I said in the last show, I'm going to say it again, I'm going to beat the drum on this one, because no one knows what comes next.
Speaker A:This is unprecedented, uncharted territory.
Speaker A:The markets are acting irrationally, we are in the middle of wars, and I am telling you to understand AI.
Speaker A:Why?
Speaker A:Because the most disruptive, permanent thing that is going to happen to us in our lifetime is, in fact, AI driven.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:The more you understand it, the more you know, the better you are.
Speaker A:If you have a parent or family member who's been completely disconnected, the Internet, what happens to them next will unplug them.
Speaker A:Make them look like savages in caves.
Speaker A:And there's no place you can go that's going to be immune to this.
Speaker A:You can go to Austin, you can go to la, you can go to, you know, Florida.
Speaker A:You can go anywhere.
Speaker A:It does not matter.
Speaker A:Yeah, it doesn't matter.
Speaker A:It doesn't even matter.
Speaker B:Had to throw that in there.
Speaker A:No, that's fine.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:So do you guys think of me whenever I walk in a room without it?
Speaker A:With talon too.
Speaker A:Is.
Speaker A:Or the rock or is it just.
Speaker A:Is it just me who thinks.
Speaker B:I think it's just you.
Speaker A:I think it's just you.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Yeah, I think so.
Speaker A:We're both bald.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:You still give off the Jeff.
Speaker A:The.
Speaker B:The Jeff Goldblum vibes.
Speaker A:Really?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And you wish.
Speaker A:I do wish.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:He seems fun.
Speaker B:Like he would be a great hang.
Speaker A:He was a good looking dude back in the day.
Speaker B:Was he?
Speaker B:Jurassic park days?
Speaker B:Not so much.
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:The fly days.
Speaker B:The fly days.
Speaker A:He was fly.
Speaker B:Oh, the fly.
Speaker A:He was the movie fly.
Speaker A:No, that's how he got famous.
Speaker A:Oh.
Speaker A:And then he did Earth Girls Are Easy.
Speaker A:Great movie.
Speaker A:That was.
Speaker B:You're really dating yourself now.
Speaker A:Yeah, it's.
Speaker B:It's.
Speaker A:It's real.
Speaker A:Yeah, it's a problem.
Speaker B:Yeah, he's great.
Speaker B:Anyways on that.
Speaker B:This was a good episode.
Speaker B:Appreciate you, man.
Speaker A:I appreciate you.
Speaker A:There it is.
Speaker A:There's my guy.
Speaker B:I guess he was.
Speaker A:Look at that dude.
Speaker A:That was Jurassic Park.
Speaker A:That was it.
Speaker A:That wasn't Fly, was it?
Speaker B:Oh, yeah, no.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:This is Jurassic park and it's Independence Day.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:Oh, no, right here.
Speaker A:Jurassic Park.
Speaker A:Yeah, I know.
Speaker A:My Dr. My Jeff Goldblum shirtless pictures.
Speaker A:I knew exactly where that was from.
Speaker B:Look at him.
Speaker B:Jacked, fitted.
Speaker B:Oh, no, right here.
Speaker A:That looks like Sylvester Stallone.
Speaker A:But that's him.
Speaker B:It does look like him.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:That is about to say like Rambo, man.
Speaker A:Yeah, Pull him up.
Speaker A:In Earth Girls Are Easy with Gina Davis.
Speaker A:Okay, great, great show.
Speaker A:They all turn into these aliens that are clearly just like big fabric suits.
Speaker A:And he's an alien.
Speaker A:She's an.
Speaker A:And she's, you know, a human.
Speaker B:So he's known as the alien movie guy.
Speaker A:I don't know these.
Speaker A:No, that's him.
Speaker A:You see the Earth girls?
Speaker A:You see those three aliens right there?
Speaker A:The yellow, blue and red ones?
Speaker A:I think he's the blue one.
Speaker B:I have not seen this.
Speaker A:Earth Girls.
Speaker A:Easy.
Speaker A:Great movie.
Speaker A:Look at him.
Speaker A:Stud.
Speaker B:Yeah, he's stud.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And this is a time where like a dude who looked like us couldn't.
Speaker A:Couldn't be an actor, you know, and he made it so.
Speaker A:Yeah, pull right there.
Speaker A:Pull.
Speaker A:Click on that one.
Speaker A:There you go.
Speaker B:He's got.
Speaker B:He's got charisma, though.
Speaker A:Yeah, massive charisma.
Speaker A:And who's the guy in the middle?
Speaker A:I can't remember who the other guy was.
Speaker A:Is that Jim Carrey?
Speaker B:It looks like Jim Carrey.
Speaker A:It might be Jim Carrey.
Speaker B:Is that Damon Waynes?
Speaker A:Yeah, I think it's David Woods.
Speaker A:Jim Carrey.
Speaker B:That would make sense.
Speaker B:SNL days, right?
Speaker A:Yeah, that makes sense.
Speaker A:Go to IMDb.
Speaker A:Go.
Speaker A:Or if you're listening to the show
Speaker B:and you still say, yeah, it is right there.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:Daniel Wayne, Jim Carrey and Jim Carrey.
Speaker A:Yeah, dude.
Speaker B:Two Jim Carrey references on the show.
Speaker A:The real Jim Carrey, to be clear.
Speaker A:The real Jim Carrey.
Speaker B:Please stand up.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker B:Please stand up.
Speaker B:Exactly.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Gina Davis, Jeff Goldblum, Jim Carrey, Damon Waynes and a bunch of people you don't know.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:That's a good cast, though, if you're.
Speaker B:But if you're still sticking around, and I know we haven't said it yet, best thing you could do for the show to support the show is head over to join Fridays.com enter the code higher to get a hundred dollars off your first order or head over to thspod.com to get your merch.
Speaker B:Get your merch.
Speaker B:All the fly merch.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And lastly, send the show out to a friend, family member, somebody that you feel like that could use it.
Speaker B:Do it, do it now.
Speaker A:Do it, do it.
Speaker B:Until next time, everybody.
Speaker B:Okay, bye.
Speaker A:Good night, everybody.
