Tariffs, Tumbling Tech & The Fed’s Tightrope
Jerome Powell might be the only man in America who can tank the stock market and calm it down—all in the same sentence. In this episode, Chris and Saied break down Powell’s most recent cryptic speech (complete with purple tie and Fed-speak flair) and explain why the central bank is stalling like your friend who won’t define the relationship. With tariffs looming like a bad sequel and markets reacting like it’s a rollercoaster sponsored by Dramamine, the guys dive into the real question: Is this a dip… or just indigestion?
➡️ Meanwhile, Nvidia is catching strays, Netflix is crushing it in a recession (because apparently we all just want to binge and cry), and retail sales are peaking like everyone rushed to buy a car before the tariff guillotine drops. Throw in a McLaren parked in general population, some spicy banter about floppy-wrist jump shots, and a side of Zaddy Zandi recession forecasts, and you’ve got an episode that’s equal parts economic insight and comedy gold. Pull up, pour a cold brew, and don’t forget your gooseneck.
💥 Have you left your "honest ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️" review?
👕 THS MERCH: http://www.thspod.com
🔗 Resources:
Powell sees 'challenging scenario' for Fed if Trump tariffs stoke inflation and slow growth (Yahoo! Finance)
Stock market today: Dow slides as UnitedHealth plunges, Nasdaq, S&P 500 sputter to end down week (Yahoo! Finance)
Netflix stock rises after earnings, outlook top Wall Street forecasts (Yahoo! Finance)
Recession 'more likely than not' if trade war keeps escalating (Yahoo! Finance)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.
Transcript
You got a thread on the back of your hat.
Speaker A:You turn.
Speaker A:Yeah, it's right there.
Speaker A:It's from the higher center.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:What was that?
Speaker A:That's good.
Speaker B:The worst endorsement.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's good.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker B:We're not doing the clap in thing.
Speaker B:No, no.
Speaker B:I refuse to respond to the clap.
Speaker A:Welcome back to the number one financial literacy podcast in the world.
Speaker A:This is the higher standard.
Speaker A:Sitting next to me on my left is my partner in crime, Christopher Nahibi.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And more energy this time.
Speaker A:I got.
Speaker A:I got some listeners taking shots.
Speaker B:Who?
Speaker B:You.
Speaker B:And me.
Speaker B:And me.
Speaker A:You.
Speaker B:For what?
Speaker B:Oh, yeah, I was.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Okay, that's valid criticism.
Speaker B:Twice.
Speaker B:Yeah, I was.
Speaker A:They're like.
Speaker B:I was tired the last show.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's true.
Speaker A:They came at me.
Speaker A:They're like, it's my job to provide you with energy drinks.
Speaker B:I've had.
Speaker B:This is my second one tonight, so.
Speaker B:Yeah, I'm gonna be gassed.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Well, yeah, sitting next to me on my right is my partner in time, the one and only Sayed Omar.
Speaker A:Thank you, my man.
Speaker A:And sitting behind the ones and twos, we have nobody.
Speaker A:So Jerome Powell did some things.
Speaker B:Look, I know there's a lot of people listening to the show who do not care about Jerome Powell, okay?
Speaker B:So let me just come out and address the elephant in the room, not you.
Speaker B:Sorry.
Speaker B:Just to be clear, what I want to address is.
Speaker B:Look, I don't care about politics either.
Speaker B:I really don't.
Speaker B:And I know that the show sounds really political.
Speaker B:I know that we talk a lot about this stuff.
Speaker B:From time to time, it's because it's having an obvious and clear impact on the economy.
Speaker B:And for those of you who are like, chris, I don't care about Jerome Powell.
Speaker B:I want to know how to make money.
Speaker B:Okay, well, this is how you do it, all right?
Speaker B:You got to understand the zeitgeist, the ether, baby.
Speaker B:All right?
Speaker B:You got to pay attention to this stuff.
Speaker B:And for those of you who say, I don't care.
Speaker B:Okay, look, dude, you are missing data points which are critical for your decision making.
Speaker B:Let me give you an example.
Speaker B:Yes.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Because I know you want one site.
Speaker B:Because you're looking at me.
Speaker B:I want one eyes.
Speaker A:Give me the example.
Speaker B:All right, look, right out the gate.
Speaker B:Let's just say a week and a half ago, you were like, I'm going to buy some Nvidia stock.
Speaker A:Yeah, right.
Speaker A:You know, I mean, it's part of the Mag 7.
Speaker B:Sounds like a good stock.
Speaker A:I mean, it was propping up the entire stock market for a very long Time.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Their stock had a really bad day when tariffs were on the table.
Speaker A:And how would you have known that?
Speaker B:You wouldn't have known that.
Speaker B:If you aren't listening to the political zeitgeist, you aren't paying attention to Jerome Powell.
Speaker B:And Jerome Powell did some things today which I think could have reasonably be anticipated.
Speaker B:And we're going to talk about those things later on the show that you would, that you would expect it would have traded impacted trading activity.
Speaker B:And guess what?
Speaker B:Today was a not so great day in the markets.
Speaker B:And just so you know, Today is Wednesday, April 16th.
Speaker A:April 16th.
Speaker A:Yes.
Speaker B: At a solid: Speaker A:10 days away.
Speaker A:4:00pm 10 days away from my boy's birthday.
Speaker B:Shout out to a room.
Speaker A:No, My son, my boy.
Speaker B:No, I know.
Speaker B:I was.
Speaker A:Oh, the can pop.
Speaker B:It's not always about you.
Speaker A:It's about me.
Speaker B:It's not.
Speaker B:Adam's turning 788-999.
Speaker B:Jesus.
Speaker A:I know.
Speaker A:This is a big one.
Speaker A:The next one's two digits.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:I mean, I'm officially old.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I don't have a little boy anymore.
Speaker A:I have a boy.
Speaker A:I have a full on boy.
Speaker B:You still have great features, color in your beard.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Like you're not full on gray.
Speaker B:Like I'm basically like Moses.
Speaker A:I know.
Speaker A:No, it's.
Speaker A:Some areas are so white that when I shave it down or trim it down too low, it just looks like I don't have a beard.
Speaker B:Yeah, that happens.
Speaker A:Terrible.
Speaker B:I don't know why I have like the evil Marvel character villain facial hair.
Speaker A:You do?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:People like, do you color it like that?
Speaker B:Like, why would I color it like this?
Speaker A:Is that intentional?
Speaker A:No, it looks like there's a rhythm to it.
Speaker B:It's not.
Speaker B:That's also weird.
Speaker B:It's like, why doesn't my facial hair go lopsided?
Speaker B:Like why is one side gray and the other side like not.
Speaker B:I don't understand the evenness of it all.
Speaker A:So one more thing to get into and why you'd want to also listen to Jerome Powell.
Speaker A:Another example.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:Instead of listening, instead of listening to all these other financial gurus that are online, right.
Speaker A:These influencers, if you will.
Speaker A:I mean, you're already here.
Speaker B:Are they really influencing?
Speaker A:I hope not.
Speaker A:You know, but if somebody that's as plugged in as Jerome Powell is going to sit in front of at a symposium or wherever he's at in Chicago, right.
Speaker A:And he's telling you that there's a lot of uncertainty.
Speaker A:He's got all the data.
Speaker A:He's got.
Speaker B:His job is to, is to Be certain.
Speaker B:Literally the uncertainty.
Speaker A:His job is to have the data presented to him.
Speaker A:He gets all the data and he's.
Speaker B:Telling you, excuse me, I would like more data.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:Thank you.
Speaker A:Everything.
Speaker A:Everything I do is dependent on the data.
Speaker A:That's what he's saying.
Speaker A:And guess what?
Speaker A:And he's saying that I don't know where this goes.
Speaker B:Yeah, he was very clear about that today.
Speaker B:But let's pause there.
Speaker B:So Powell's real audience, just to be clear, is not the public, it's the market.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker B:That's who he's really talking to when he does these things.
Speaker B:You know, so if you think he's coming out saying these things because he's trying to make you feel good.
Speaker B:No, it's not you.
Speaker B:It's the market.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:The market moves based on the stuff that he says.
Speaker B:And he knows it.
Speaker B:And frankly, our president, same thing.
Speaker A:And he's doubling down on things that he said maybe at his last post game press conference to make sure that everyone realizes or he wants people to believe that.
Speaker A:No, guys, jobs are still good.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:You ever heard the expression fed speak?
Speaker A:Yeah, Fed speak.
Speaker B:Hear that a lot.
Speaker B:Oh, the Fed's doing their Fed speak again.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:We've highlighted on the show the Fed will often talk about what's going on in their closed door meetings with a repeated script that just has certain words pivoted out.
Speaker B:Well, they speak in this.
Speaker B:Fed speak this language on purpose because phrases like waiting for greater clarity, they're tactical.
Speaker B:They're being strategic about what they're trying to say.
Speaker B:They buy time while keeping the markets guessing.
Speaker B:He's intentionally keeping it ambiguous.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:Great example.
Speaker B:Say nine out on a date.
Speaker B:You're my girlfriend.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:In this example, and I say side.
Speaker B:We'Ve been dating for a while.
Speaker B:I just want to know.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Are we gonna take this the next step to the next step.
Speaker A:And I say, you know, I really.
Speaker A:I really gotta see where this goes.
Speaker B:Yeah, we'll see where it goes.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I mean, the night is still young.
Speaker B:We'll see what happens.
Speaker A:I'm not gonna promise anything, but I'm.
Speaker B:Not gonna not promise anything either.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So why would I close the opportunity?
Speaker A:Exactly.
Speaker B:You know, I gotta.
Speaker A:He got.
Speaker A:So if in for Jerome's Powell's sake, he's gonna leave the options.
Speaker A:Oh, he's always going to give himself three options.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:Even though one of the options hasn't been spoken about a lot lately, but technically speaking, it's still there.
Speaker A:Raising rates.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Hey, I could be crazy.
Speaker A:I might do that.
Speaker A:But I'm probably not.
Speaker B:Oh, my God.
Speaker B:Can you imagine the market?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Like, like Jim Cramer's probably just going to stop this.
Speaker B:Look at the screen for an hour.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And that.
Speaker A:And that's because we went through this great long period where they raised rates to the high levels that they were, and then we were all waiting for them to begin cutting.
Speaker A:And we were led to believe that once they began cutting that it'd be a slow, gradual process.
Speaker B:Where does it feel so slow and gradual now?
Speaker B:Does it?
Speaker A:Yeah, I think they've pivoted from that, you know, position 100%.
Speaker B:They did, yeah.
Speaker B:They had to.
Speaker B:A lot of, like, unexpected things happen.
Speaker B:We talked about that.
Speaker B:We'll get into a little bit today.
Speaker B:So let's translate for the pod listener out there, those of you listening going like, oh, God, more Jerome Powell.
Speaker B:Why?
Speaker B:Okay, yeah, we got you.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker B:We're going to soft serve this.
Speaker B:So essentially, the Fed is not being cautious here with their language.
Speaker B:They're basically stalling.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:They're stalling while watching the economy like it's a slow motion car crash.
Speaker B:We know this is not good.
Speaker B:We know there's things that are moving the markets.
Speaker B:It's mostly rhetoric driven and the Fed's stalling.
Speaker B:Look, we don't know.
Speaker B:We don't have the data that's come in.
Speaker B:This all just happened a week and a half.
Speaker B:Here's what they're not saying.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:This all happened a week and a half ago.
Speaker B:It's going to have some reverberating impacts.
Speaker B:When that data comes in, we'll let you know.
Speaker B:Until then, we don't know.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And it doesn't help that he's been told that we're going to.
Speaker A:Now we're just going to pause Everything for 30, 60, 90 days.
Speaker A:Like we.
Speaker A:We'll revisit the situation in 90 days.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Isn't that what you're talking about?
Speaker B:A guy who wears purple ties on purpose because he doesn't want to be seen as political?
Speaker B:This is what he does.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:It's true.
Speaker A:That's what he does.
Speaker A:But also what he's also doing is he's leaving the option open.
Speaker A:So one of the questions in this meeting that he had today or the symposium that he was at.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Was, is the Fed prepared to cut rates in the event that there's a market crash?
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And unequivocally he's like, no, like, we're not going to get into that because there's too much not know that we won't do It.
Speaker A:No, I can't even comment on it because it's too much uncertainty.
Speaker B:It's a guess.
Speaker A:It's a guess.
Speaker B:It's a guess.
Speaker A:But you got.
Speaker A:Now think to yourself, if the head guy.
Speaker A:Imagine if the CEO of your company came out and was like, oh, yeah, we're ready.
Speaker A:We're ready to.
Speaker A:We're ready to start laying off people.
Speaker A:That would send everybody into a panic.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:What do you.
Speaker A:What do you.
Speaker A:So now he's.
Speaker A:He's just literally trying to control emotions.
Speaker B:Yeah, well.
Speaker B:And look, a lot of money means a lot of emotions.
Speaker B:Some people are better suited to take.
Speaker B:Take advantage of those circumstances.
Speaker B:Some people will destroy their lives.
Speaker A:Exactly.
Speaker B:So.
Speaker B:And I know you're thinking, Chris, can you give me an example?
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, give me an example.
Speaker B:Yeah, I can.
Speaker B:I like to go back in time.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Back.
Speaker B:Back in time.
Speaker A:Oh, way back.
Speaker B:Way back.
Speaker B:And look at examples.
Speaker B:Not because I think it's going to happen, but look, what's the closest corollary to where we're at today?
Speaker A:History tends to repeat itself?
Speaker B:1970S, baby.
Speaker A:Straight.
Speaker B:That's right.
Speaker A:So, resurgence in inflation.
Speaker B:1970S, we had a resurgence inflation known as stagflation, which is basically a recession, but with a slight unique twist to it.
Speaker B: So in the late: Speaker A:Inflation, which, remember, we just came out of.
Speaker A:We did for two years.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Crushing growth and spiking unemployment, which may or may not happen.
Speaker B:Tbd.
Speaker B:That's why the Fed's like, I don't know, bro.
Speaker A:We'll see.
Speaker A:I don't know.
Speaker B:So Powell in a similar trap right now.
Speaker B:If tariffs push inflations while the labor market slows, so he could have the same problem.
Speaker B:I mean, in theory, we are heading down a road where that could be with the gas station team of the road.
Speaker A:Or.
Speaker B:Essentially it's like.
Speaker B:And this is a terrible example, but bear with me here, okay?
Speaker B:I think it makes sense because this would never happen in real life, but whatever.
Speaker B:It's like trying to put out a fire while someone keeps throwing matches and gasoline on it.
Speaker A:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker B:Let me know how that's working out for you.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:The people that are actually controlling the fire are not the ones helping you.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:You're working in opposite directions.
Speaker B:And to be clear, that's not a political statement.
Speaker B:I'm not poo poohing any party.
Speaker B:No, there's no party poo pooing here.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:We're not doing that.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:All I'm saying is, is there are at moments challenges between the Executive and legislative branches in what they do and economic policy.
Speaker A:Well, you gotta think too, like it's not, it's not lost on anybody that when.
Speaker A:And we're not poo pooing any party.
Speaker B:No poo pooing parties here.
Speaker A:No, yeah, we're not, we're just stating the facts that this is what actually happened when this administration took office.
Speaker A:Came out the gate right away.
Speaker A:I think it's time for drone Powell to cut rates.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:That was strategic though too because let's be honest, if you're the president and you know that he's likely to cut rates.
Speaker B:Yeah, It's a great move.
Speaker B:Saeed.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:I want you to know that I'm going to edit this show.
Speaker A:Yeah, okay.
Speaker B:We already know that I'm going to edit the show.
Speaker B:You already know it's a more probable than onset of circumstances.
Speaker B:So he set himself up to say I have a victory over Jerome Powell when in fact Jerome Powell ultimately, when he does cut rates, is just going to do what he's going to do anyway.
Speaker A:That's right.
Speaker A:That's.
Speaker A:That's right.
Speaker B:It got off on his brain.
Speaker A:Now you already knew.
Speaker A:That's hilarious.
Speaker A:No, but then, and then, and then he goes on to say when Jerome Powell came out and they asked him, I was like, he, he has no control over me.
Speaker A:And what we do, like we're, we're independent.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:But, but Trump has already set that up to say I control you.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I can't because you know what I'm going to do?
Speaker A:Like I, because not to say that he's doing it intentionally.
Speaker A:He's like, okay, I'll just shift my focus to the ten year.
Speaker A:But he knows what that means.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:And if you take home one thing from the show, please, for the love of God, one, watch the ten year.
Speaker A:Yes.
Speaker B:The ten year treasury is such an important part of the overall economic picture.
Speaker B:You're like going, oh my God, Chris, like, why do I care?
Speaker B:Okay, well, mortgage rates, the best proxy you have for mortgage rates going up or down is a ten year.
Speaker A:Yep.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Now typically you get rates that are in, in the business world that are over the corresponding treasuries.
Speaker B:Don't worry about that.
Speaker B:If you see the 10 year go up, you can expect mortgage rates to go up.
Speaker B:If you see the ten year come down, you can expect mortgage rates to come down.
Speaker B:It's that simple.
Speaker B:You want to be the smartest realtor or real estate agent on, in the street?
Speaker B:Just watch the ten year treasury.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:You'll know what's Going to happen next.
Speaker A:Exactly.
Speaker B:And if you're not watching it and you've been in the business for years, what are you doing?
Speaker A:And this is the thing, as of this past week, that has really started to scare investors.
Speaker B:The tenure, the.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:The Treasuries, the bond market in general.
Speaker A:The bond market in general.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:Bond markets.
Speaker B:It's getting a little dicey out there.
Speaker A:So with everything that's been going on with the tariffs and all the uncertainty at play, and a lot.
Speaker A:The stock market has.
Speaker A:Has taken its hits over the last week.
Speaker A:Week and a half, two weeks.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Well, typically, what happens in situations like this, and correct me if I'm wrong, is investors will flee over to safer investments like the Treasuries.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:And what that.
Speaker B:More stable.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Investments.
Speaker A:Right, exactly.
Speaker B:Less risk.
Speaker A:Less risk.
Speaker A:And what happens when they do that?
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:Treasury prices go up.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:They're supposed to.
Speaker B:More buyers.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Means prices drive up.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:So.
Speaker A:But it's so unstable right now that it's working in the opposite direction that it's supposed to go.
Speaker A:So that's the scary part.
Speaker B:So.
Speaker B:Yeah, there is.
Speaker B:Well, so we.
Speaker B:We talked about the vix, the fear index, the fear gauge, having a lot of spikes up and down.
Speaker B:It's actually kind of normalized a little bit.
Speaker A:I saw that.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:So because it's normalized closer, around, like, low 30s, last I checked it.
Speaker B:It's been a while.
Speaker B:Admittedly, you would expect the treasury bond market to settle out, and it's not really.
Speaker B:It's been very volatile.
Speaker B:So here's what I'll say.
Speaker B:Forget all the traditional nuance, all the BS that we always talk about.
Speaker B:No one knows what happens next.
Speaker B:Everyone's still uncertain.
Speaker B:I don't care what the VIX says and what fear gauge says.
Speaker B:This uncertainty has created an environment.
Speaker B:People like, I don't know if I want to really finance anything or buy anything.
Speaker B:I just want to.
Speaker B:I just kind of want to see what happens.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I mean, that's the smart thing to do.
Speaker A:Right, Right.
Speaker A:Because even if you thought rates were.
Speaker A:If rates did even come down a little bit when you're looking.
Speaker A:When you're looking to refinance or borrow some money, are you going to refinance right when rates start to dip, or are you going to wait till the rates bottom out?
Speaker B:So.
Speaker B:So this is another thing I'm hearing a lot from people that are trying to make money, and they're like, chris, I just want to make some money.
Speaker B:And this question I've gotten so much in the last Couple weeks in the DMs.
Speaker B:Should I buy the dip now?
Speaker B:Don't, don't be that guy, dude.
Speaker B:Don't be that person who's calling me, hitting me up in the dm, saying, should I buy the dip?
Speaker B:If you know this is a dip.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:You know better than everybody else in the markets that no one.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:That I know is looking at this going, we're at the bottom by now.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:There isn't a single seasoned investor.
Speaker B:And some people are saying, well, you know what?
Speaker B:Warren Buffett's moved almost entirely to cash.
Speaker B:That's also not necessarily true.
Speaker A:T bills.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Here's what I would say.
Speaker B:Yes.
Speaker B:Warren Buffett has put a lot of money into T bills.
Speaker B:He's got a lot of cash.
Speaker B:He's dragging a ton.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:So much so that you and I were calling this years ago.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:We knew he was moving a big chunk to cash, but when you look at his overall financial picture, he's always been about 70% invested and 30% cash.
Speaker B:And he always kind of restructures his investments based on their value at any given time to be about.
Speaker B:He's just got so much damn money now that he's still about 30% invested in cash.
Speaker B:It's just a big ass number.
Speaker A:Yeah, you're right.
Speaker A:It's just a bigger number.
Speaker A:But I think this, what we talked about more recently about that was this was like the first time in a very, very long time that he's completely removed himself from the s and P500.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And I think that speaks volumes.
Speaker A:That's where it really speaks volumes.
Speaker A:You're like, ooh, wait a minute.
Speaker B:And that's another question.
Speaker B:So the second biggest question or second most frequently asked question number one is, do I buy the dip now?
Speaker B:Dude, I don't know if this is a dip.
Speaker B:I can't tell you to do that.
Speaker B:I have no idea.
Speaker B:Right out the gate.
Speaker B:The other one I get is, well, should I stop investing in the S and P now?
Speaker B:And I'm like, okay, well, your dollar cost averaging, right?
Speaker B:And they go, well, yeah.
Speaker B:And I'm like, okay, well this is part of that.
Speaker A:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker A:Well, if you, if you continue to buy now, right.
Speaker A:Because think of it this way.
Speaker A:Had you, had you bought in like a year ago where you, had you experienced some gains, right.
Speaker A:Then you would have had the gains.
Speaker A:But now you're getting an opportunity almost to go back in time and buy again at that price.
Speaker A:And even if it goes down further, you continue to dollar cost average.
Speaker A:We went through the Numbers.
Speaker A:I guess the biggest fear here is that we actually step right into a recession.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And you're in your wonder.
Speaker A:You're thinking to yourself, oh, man, I bought.
Speaker A:I bought the stocks, like, during a recession.
Speaker A:Why did I do this?
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:I really feel like we're in one already.
Speaker B:I know so many people that are having financial challenges now.
Speaker B:And because we do the show.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:People feel very.
Speaker B:I don't know if you get this a lot.
Speaker B:I.
Speaker B:I do.
Speaker B:I.
Speaker B:People feel very comfortable talking about some deep personal financial stuff.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I actually, like, commend them when they do.
Speaker A:If they do come to me, I just go right this way.
Speaker A:His name is Christopher, and he'd be at the higher standard.
Speaker B:That would make a lot of sense because I usually go like, hey, have you talked to say, you know this?
Speaker B:And they're like, no, no, we don't talk to you.
Speaker B:I don't need the color commentary.
Speaker A:Sorry.
Speaker A:You're the play by.
Speaker A:I'm the play by play guy.
Speaker B:No, I'm not asking you to talk to him for commentary.
Speaker B:I'm just asking to get him on schedule.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:By the way, totally racist, and I apologize.
Speaker A:What?
Speaker B:Rajeel was helping me.
Speaker B:The studio.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And you do.
Speaker B:So he's Fijian, Right.
Speaker B:And little Indian.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Lovely dude.
Speaker B:His son and my son are close friends, and I adore him.
Speaker B:He's fantastic.
Speaker B:And he's been helping me out in the studio, but I've been showing him my stories on Instagram.
Speaker B:People like, that's not Saeed.
Speaker B:And I'm like, obviously it's not Saeed.
Speaker B:You raise.
Speaker A:That's like the correlation.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:I sent it a substitute attacked him.
Speaker B:In, but he's brownish.
Speaker B:And I'm like, what's wrong with society?
Speaker A:Props to you.
Speaker A:I wouldn't have known that people from Fiji are Fijian.
Speaker B:I didn't know until he said it to me.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:I was like, you're messing.
Speaker A:I feel like.
Speaker A:Is that a joke to see if I know what I'm talking about, like.
Speaker A:Or am I gonna correct you?
Speaker B:So back in the day when I first started, people don't know this about me, so I.
Speaker B:One of my earliest jobs was working as a teller at Wells Fargo.
Speaker A:Me too.
Speaker B:So, yeah.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And I worked.
Speaker B:I worked with this girl, and she.
Speaker B:She looked Asian, but she was clearly, like, mixed or something.
Speaker B:I couldn't tell.
Speaker B:I thought maybe Filipino.
Speaker B:I didn't know what she was.
Speaker B:And, you know, I think at the time I was like, 16, 17.
Speaker B:She asked for me to drive her home after work because she doesn't have a car and she normally walks and it was cold.
Speaker B:I was like, whatever, blah, blah, blah.
Speaker B:And we're.
Speaker B:I'm driving her to her place, right?
Speaker B:There's nothing romantic about this.
Speaker B:Like, she had.
Speaker B:She had a dude.
Speaker B:But, you know, I was like, hey, you know, I've always wondered, like, what's your ethnicity?
Speaker B:And she goes, oh, I'm Guamanian.
Speaker B:I'm like, that's not a word.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I'm calling shenanigans.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:No, you're from Guam.
Speaker B:And she goes, yeah.
Speaker B:I'm like, why don't you just say I'm from Guam?
Speaker B:She's like, because I'm Guamanian.
Speaker B:I'm like, stop saying that.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, exactly.
Speaker B:She was right, I was wrong.
Speaker B:It's a word.
Speaker B:Did not know that.
Speaker B:Go mania.
Speaker B:I'm like, tasmanian.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I have a really good follow up story for this that I would have been able to share, like, maybe several months ago, but I can't.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Back when we had an X rated show before everybody, their mother started, ironically, more people listen to you, but they're listening for the wrong reasons.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:To try to catch you on something now.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker B:At the same time, I'm like, tell your friends.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:So now I almost want to say something bad.
Speaker B:So they shut up their friends and be like, yo, hey, they said this.
Speaker B:Can you believe they said this on the show?
Speaker A:Honestly, shout out to all the listeners and you know who you are, that.
Speaker B:You mean the haters.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:No, no, no, no, no.
Speaker A:The listeners that know me well enough to where they'll literally DM me and say, I mean, kudos, brother.
Speaker A:You showed some serious restraint this last episode.
Speaker B:I know, right?
Speaker A:They go.
Speaker A:They even know.
Speaker A:They know.
Speaker A:Like, oh, say wants.
Speaker A:He wants to hit this punchline.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And I watch.
Speaker B:So I watch other people's podcasts.
Speaker B:And the weirdest reason why I watch, by the way, I do this, it's Chris Williamson's.
Speaker B:I watch because the lighting.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:Beautiful lighting.
Speaker B:I love the cinematography.
Speaker B:I don't care what he's saying.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Halftime.
Speaker B:I'm like, he's so pretty.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Like a good voice.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I'll watch Rogan because there's certain.
Speaker B:Certain people he brings on that I'm really interested in.
Speaker B:Like, I love the science stuff.
Speaker B:I love Egypt stuff.
Speaker B:I love, like, the history stuff, the UFC stuff.
Speaker B:I'm like, me.
Speaker A:Is it true he really quit drinking?
Speaker B:Who?
Speaker A:Rogan.
Speaker B:I wasn't wearing that.
Speaker A:Yeah, I think I saw.
Speaker A:I think I saw a post where he's like, yeah, I Think I'm done drinking.
Speaker A:Yeah, well, he's like.
Speaker A:He.
Speaker A:His arg.
Speaker A:His argument was, it's kind of weird that I'm just now realizing this after all these years.
Speaker A:Somebody that takes such good care of their body, like a temple, just feeds it poison.
Speaker B:I think all he does is smoke cigars now.
Speaker A:And the other extracurricular stuff.
Speaker B:I.
Speaker B:I stopped drinking without the intention of, like, being blatant about it.
Speaker B:But I gotta be honest with you, I do not regret it.
Speaker B:And I never thought in a million years I'd regret it.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:So my wife in the new studio has bought us, like, these really nice crystal pieces.
Speaker A:Nice.
Speaker B:Some of which are decanters.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Just.
Speaker B:And I'm like, what am I going to put in that monster?
Speaker A:That would be legendary.
Speaker A:And we can keep it in the fridge.
Speaker A:Yeah, we should totally do that.
Speaker B:You think I'm being sarcastic here?
Speaker A:No, no.
Speaker A:We'll pour ourselves every time.
Speaker B:I also bought us a cold brew container to go in there today so we can make some cold brew.
Speaker A:Cold brew.
Speaker B:So that, you know, we can share it with the nobodies who visits us.
Speaker B:So I happen to a deep dive into today from Yahoo.
Speaker B:Finance.
Speaker B:Let's get into a little bit.
Speaker B:It's going to segue.
Speaker B:The Jerome Powell conversation is something a little bit meaningful.
Speaker B:Useful.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:For any of you who's looking to make money and get some good sound bites to take back to your friends and family and loved ones.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:See?
Speaker A:See what this means?
Speaker A:It's tea leaves.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And there are people who are gonna be like, chris, I don't care about Jerome Pal.
Speaker B:Then stay with us.
Speaker B:Okay, Jerome Pals, the aperitif is the palate cleanser before I give you the steak tartare.
Speaker A:Yeah, okay.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:Tartare.
Speaker B:The tartar is Netflix.
Speaker B:All right, so Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday today, the central bank will wait for greater clarity before considering any interest rate adjustments, as he expects President Trump's tariffs to generate higher inflation and slower growth.
Speaker A:Okay, so explain to the people what.
Speaker A:What kind of clarity?
Speaker A:Because right now he's seeing, well, jobs are okay, so there's no need to cut rates.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:The thought process behind that is if unemployment got out of hand, that if he lowered rates, then it would stimulate the economy more to ultimately adding more jobs.
Speaker B:See, the problem is you've gotten so good at this now that you actually speak in Fed speak when explaining Fed speak.
Speaker B:It's confusing now.
Speaker A:It's.
Speaker B:What he's trying to say is, bro, we don't know what's going to happen, we're going to need to see some data.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:We're going to need some.
Speaker A:See some data that is.
Speaker A:And.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:And the data that we're seeing doesn't.
Speaker A:Doesn't make me have to do anything.
Speaker B:Yep.
Speaker B:All these things, they go the opposite way of what I'm trying to do.
Speaker B:So now I'm just pissed off.
Speaker B:So I'm just going to wait.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:That's what he's saying.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Look at my purple tie.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:There's no politician.
Speaker B:Just anecdotally, if you see somebody wearing a blue tie with a suit or a red tie with a suit, do you automatically assume Republican or Democrat?
Speaker A:No, I don't see colors the way you.
Speaker A:You normal people do.
Speaker B:Oh, that's right.
Speaker B:You're colorblind.
Speaker B:I am so sorry.
Speaker A:So when you say.
Speaker B:I did not mean.
Speaker A:When you said.
Speaker A:When you said.
Speaker A:When you said he wears a purple tie, go.
Speaker A:Really?
Speaker B:I really.
Speaker A:I thought this was.
Speaker A:I thought this was blue the whole time.
Speaker B:Did you really?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:You know the worst part about this?
Speaker A:My kids love to tease me about this.
Speaker A:It's like their favorite thing.
Speaker A:They go, hey, dad, what color is this?
Speaker A:And I'm like, why you got to do this?
Speaker B:I forget all the time.
Speaker A:Do you?
Speaker A:That's.
Speaker A:You don't see the color strengths?
Speaker A:There's no.
Speaker A:Never.
Speaker B:No.
Speaker B:You always seem to have the color corded, like, coordinated.
Speaker B:Like clothes, bro.
Speaker A:Black on black.
Speaker A:Black and olive green.
Speaker A:Easy.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I just thought you're Middle Eastern.
Speaker B:Like, that's bro.
Speaker B:Dude, guy.
Speaker A:No, no.
Speaker A:But blue tie, red tie.
Speaker A:I mean, if they're a politician, of course.
Speaker B:Politician adjacent.
Speaker B:Like a banker walks in wearing a red tie to you.
Speaker B:Oh, Republican.
Speaker A:No, I think Insurance agent.
Speaker B:Oh, state farm.
Speaker A:No, the guys that used to work in our building that all used to.
Speaker B:Wear those big knotted ties.
Speaker A:Full Windsor.
Speaker A:Big knotted.
Speaker A:They all wore red ties.
Speaker B:You know, I see them in the gym and they're all, like, wildly tatted up, too.
Speaker B:It's like, bro, you can't be the guy with a giant.
Speaker A:They want.
Speaker A:They just want.
Speaker A:They just want to be the next.
Speaker B:PVD bro who stunningly, is not a good guy.
Speaker B:Why?
Speaker A:What do you mean?
Speaker A:People don't know that, Christopher.
Speaker A:Yeah, we got a.
Speaker A:We got a lot of hate when we tease people with that one.
Speaker A:Thumbnail.
Speaker A:Remember?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Oh, the Patrick David thumbnail.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And they thought, oh, we had him on the show.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I almost want to do it again.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:The clickbait.
Speaker B:This is very, very just.
Speaker B:This is false advertising.
Speaker B:Not advertising.
Speaker B:This is not advertising.
Speaker B:This is Me showing a picture.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:You fell for the click.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:That's called click bait.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:You've been baited.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Why are you mad at me?
Speaker A:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker B:You're mad at all traditional.
Speaker A:We.
Speaker A:We tested you.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker B:Well, the twin developments that Jerome Powell had generated higher inflation and slow growth that he's saying are a problem for him.
Speaker B:Well, he acknowledged during the Chicago speak that you mentioned earlier today that the conference that he was at could create a major dilemma for the Fed, which is obligated to keep prices stable and while also maximizing employment.
Speaker B:So this is a direct quote.
Speaker B:Now, we may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual mandate goals are in tension.
Speaker B:He said during a question and answer session that followed his speech, he admitted there is a.
Speaker B:And again quoting, strong likelihood, end quote, that the economy will be moving away from both of the Fed's goals for the, quote, balance of the year or at least not making much progress, end quote.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah.
Speaker B:That may lead to a, quote, very difficult judgment, end quote, for the central bank.
Speaker B:Powell acknowledged.
Speaker B:You see the quotes here that I'm throwing out at you?
Speaker B:He's trying to give you little hints.
Speaker A:He's giving you little hints.
Speaker A:And we, we briefly spoke about this on the last show.
Speaker A:Yeah, briefly.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Or I think them.
Speaker A:Providing maximum employment does not mean an unemployment rate of 1%.
Speaker A:No, that's not what that means.
Speaker B:No.
Speaker A:Providing maximum employment would be somewhere in the ballpark of four and a half percent.
Speaker A:Four percent.
Speaker A:Four and a half.
Speaker A:What we've kind of been now accustomed to seeing.
Speaker A:It used to be 5%, but I think the Atlanta Fed.
Speaker A:Bostic.
Speaker A:That his name?
Speaker B:Bostic.
Speaker B:Bostic.
Speaker B:We never really settled this.
Speaker A:We.
Speaker A:Raphael, though.
Speaker B:Yeah, Raphael.
Speaker A:Yeah, Raphael.
Speaker B:Donatello.
Speaker B:Leonardo.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Raphael came out and said, I think after the last seven to 10 years, I think we can all comfortably say that a maximum employment or a healthy unemployment rate would be four and a half percent.
Speaker A:So what he's saying, what Jerome Powell is saying is if unemployment starts to go the other way, but inflation also remains high, what do you.
Speaker A:What is he in the other FOMC members supposed to do?
Speaker A:Because cutting rates would help one scenario.
Speaker A:Leaving rates higher would help the other scenario.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And now we're in this stage of stagflation.
Speaker B:Fun fact.
Speaker B: yment Imbalance growth Act of: Speaker B:Share that with your friends.
Speaker B:Go to a party.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:The Fed's got two roles, man.
Speaker B:You go, hey, hey, Bro, let me say something about those two roles.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Those two mandates you talk about, everybody talks about.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Humphrey ains act.
Speaker A:Yeah, but he.
Speaker A:But they.
Speaker B:They shot 78.
Speaker A:But they shot themselves in the foot on this one.
Speaker A:And I still don't understand why.
Speaker A:Fully.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:I mean, the inflation rate, a goal of 2%.
Speaker A:It used to be 2 to 3%.
Speaker B:Want to hear something fun?
Speaker B:You know how in the statement that he said tension, he used that word intentionally?
Speaker A:Tension.
Speaker B:Tension, yes.
Speaker B:Said it may lead to some tension between the political zeitgeist and his dual mandate.
Speaker B:I did a little bit of research.
Speaker A:You did?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I dug deep.
Speaker A:You did deep.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B: And reaching back in the: Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:Because you know I'm all about the bell bottoms.
Speaker A:Yep.
Speaker B:Powell's tension quote comment here is a direct nod to stagflation fears.
Speaker B: Think: Speaker B: actual direction was used in: Speaker B:Yeah, you're only gonna get that here, kids.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:The higher standard podcast.
Speaker B:No one else giving that to you.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So no mainstream media.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So you already can.
Speaker A:So you know he's using it now to set the table.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:Yeah, it's.
Speaker A:It's like a little head nod.
Speaker B:Yeah, he.
Speaker B:He was giving kudos shout outs.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:This is like when you hear, like a rap battle between Tupac and Biggie, and Tupac say, wait, did he talk about his wife?
Speaker B:Is that what just happened right there?
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly like, you know that.
Speaker A:And he gave a shout out to his homie Volker.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's the homie for him.
Speaker B:He loves Paul Volker.
Speaker A:Yeah, that.
Speaker A:That was the guy.
Speaker A:Yeah, that was the guy that was in charge back then.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So he also went on to say that the Fed would, quote, wait for greater clarity, but historically, policy lags can take about six to 18 months, because we know that some of these things are lagging indicators.
Speaker A:Yeah, see, that's the problem.
Speaker A: Here we are in: Speaker B:I got another example for you.
Speaker B:Hit me with steering a battleship through the fog with only radar, Right?
Speaker B:You're waiting for some ping backs on the radar.
Speaker B:You don't know what's in front of you.
Speaker A:You can't see it until you see the tip of the.
Speaker B:You just know that you got to use this tool and listen for some ping back from, you know, hitting like a, I don't know, an iceberg or another submarine or something out there.
Speaker B:And then if you do, then you react.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Too late.
Speaker B:I'm up here.
Speaker B:Cerebellum.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Cerebellum is too late then.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Well, no, not necessarily.
Speaker A:Sometimes.
Speaker B:Clearly, you've not been on a submarine or Battleship.
Speaker A:Never.
Speaker A:Never will be.
Speaker B:You play Battleship?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I win every time.
Speaker B:Stop it.
Speaker A:Every time.
Speaker B:I don't podcast where all we do is play.
Speaker B:I don't whoop your ass.
Speaker A:You know, they.
Speaker A:Some of those podcasts that are so big are those shows.
Speaker A:They have separate gaming channels.
Speaker B:Dude, my son has been watching a lot of those lately.
Speaker A:What is he into?
Speaker A:What kind of games?
Speaker B:Roblox.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah.
Speaker B:He's playing a lot of Mario, too.
Speaker B:We got him a switch.
Speaker A:I know.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Did you get in the game?
Speaker A:I told you to get him.
Speaker B:Terrible idea.
Speaker B:What's wrong with you?
Speaker A:You did.
Speaker A:You got it.
Speaker B:Yeah, man.
Speaker A:Why?
Speaker A:What's so terrible about it?
Speaker B:He's addicted.
Speaker A:It's strategy.
Speaker B:It's a whole thing.
Speaker A:No, it's good for him.
Speaker B:I don't get it.
Speaker A:It's good for him.
Speaker B:I just.
Speaker B:I want.
Speaker B:I want to go back to my son.
Speaker A:No, no, no.
Speaker A:It's way better this way than him getting addicted to the apps.
Speaker B:Yeah, probably true.
Speaker B:So I have one more little tidbit before we jump into some Nvidia conversation for those of you who are like, I want to make money.
Speaker B:Chris, stop talking about your own pal.
Speaker B:We're getting there.
Speaker B:Okay?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Settle down.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:We're now moved on from the apartif.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:We cleanse the palate.
Speaker B:We've had a little bit of tuna tartare, maybe some steak tartare, and we're going to jump into some of the meat and potatoes.
Speaker B:All right?
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:But Powell's hawk turned dove vibes.
Speaker B:Despite being appointed by Trump, Powell has been criticized by Trump for not cutting rates fast enough.
Speaker B:Enough.
Speaker B:Trump's obviously given the political kind of shtick here of like, you should cut rates now, he's holding steady.
Speaker B:While Trump's policies create inflation, the irony here writes itself.
Speaker B:But there is clearly a political backdrop which is going to come to a head.
Speaker B:And I think Jerome Powell's term's up to 26.
Speaker A:I don't know.
Speaker B:I think it's up to 26.
Speaker A:Let me look it up.
Speaker B:So let's talk about Nvidia and market volatility.
Speaker B:Nvidia, for those of you who do not follow the Mag 7, it's a tech stock, okay?
Speaker B:And Nvidia is typically a barometer for AI, risk appetite.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Because their primary output are chips for AI.
Speaker B:So Nvidia has become the proxy for AI optimism in the market.
Speaker B:If they the stock's doing well, people are like, oh my God, it's amazing.
Speaker B:If it's doing terrible is overhyped.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:May 26th.
Speaker A:You're right.
Speaker B:Okay, There you go.
Speaker B:See, this hurts you, doesn't it?
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:I'm proud of you.
Speaker B:Oh, thank you.
Speaker B:When the stock tanks Nvidia, it shakes the confidence the entire innovation narrative on Wall Street.
Speaker B:So Nvidia is often spoken about a lot.
Speaker B:So if you hear someone like talking about Nvidia, like oh my God, bad day for Nvidia.
Speaker B:You can expect the entire innovation sector.
Speaker B:Anybody tied to tech is going to have some type of ramification on the stock price at least a little bit.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:AI chips like the new oil.
Speaker B:We used to talk about nothing but oil in this country.
Speaker B:Oh, oil this, oil that.
Speaker B:Everything was oil driven and that's changed a whole lot.
Speaker B:The narrative US restricts Nvidia chips to China, like banning gasoline exports during energy war.
Speaker B:We have this proxy fight going on with our chips going there, their chips coming here.
Speaker B:We all heard about the whole Huawei situation where there was spying equipment allegedly in cell sites and whatnot.
Speaker B:Obviously tick tock.
Speaker B:A Chinese owned business is under a lot of scrutiny.
Speaker B:So these are proxies now for kind of overall control.
Speaker B:It hits demand, slowing global build out and opens doors for rivals like Huawei to develop homegrown solutions.
Speaker B:So the more we restrict Nvidia's chips going over there or they restrict them coming into their country, the more it gives an opportunity for Chinese competitors to rise.
Speaker A:Yes.
Speaker B:And then ultimately has reverberating effects in the market.
Speaker B:So watching these stocks is really important, number one for overall market and sector, number two for AI in general.
Speaker B:And number three, the tariffs that impact these, these companies, these companies have reverberating effects for competition reasons.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:So you've got to be mindful of all these things.
Speaker B:Another example of why the zeitgeist, the ether of all this political commentary.
Speaker B:The tariffs are really important if you're going to buy be buying just simple stock.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Nvidia, one of the most traded stocks in the world.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:So according to Yahoo Finance here, US stock futures traded flat on the heels of a bruising day on Wall street.
Speaker B:That was today, on Wednesday.
Speaker B:That underscores fears over the economic impact of President Trump's tariffs.
Speaker B:It is crazy to me that one day's been positive, one day's been negative, one day's been positive.
Speaker B:And this is today's narrative yet again, negative.
Speaker B:There's just so much up and down.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:How can you call a low if you're buying the dip?
Speaker B:I don't know.
Speaker A:You can't.
Speaker A:And that's the stress behind that is what keeps me always wanting a dollar cost average.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:That's the only thing that makes me feel safe.
Speaker B:Yeah, I hear you.
Speaker B:And you know from your tall friend.
Speaker A:Warm hugs from tall friends.
Speaker A:Because you know that over the, over the long haul, even if I am buying at a.
Speaker A:At a higher price at some point and then it eventually comes down a little bit, after 30 years, I will have made the right decision more times than not.
Speaker A:It's like, okay, I'm gonna shoot.
Speaker A:I'm gonna shoot 20 shots this game.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And I know a certain percentage is gonna go in just based on my averages.
Speaker A:I'm that good.
Speaker B:I'm not even gonna take the.
Speaker B:There's plenty of shots I can take here about your shots that I'm not going to take because those are 100% fire every time you just shoot a foe shot.
Speaker B:Oh, my God.
Speaker B:You don't still do that if you're not watching this.
Speaker B:No, I don't do that.
Speaker B:I didn't even do that.
Speaker A:Stop it.
Speaker B:You don't have Saeed basketball shot.
Speaker B:Just exercising the rhythm of the shot.
Speaker A:Look at the.
Speaker B:And I gotta be honest, look at the form.
Speaker B:Nobody did.
Speaker B:The people still do the floppy wrist.
Speaker A:Are you supposed to yank it back?
Speaker B:There's lots of unorthodox shooters.
Speaker B:Stopper.
Speaker A:Stop it.
Speaker B:Lots of unorthodox shooters.
Speaker A:Yeah, no, everyone still does.
Speaker A:I'm surprised it's called the gooseneck.
Speaker A:First of all.
Speaker B:Okay, first of all, I don't care what you call your floppy wrist.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:It's got other connotations other places.
Speaker B:Just go to Santa Monica and give you somebody the gooseneck and see what happens to your eye, bro.
Speaker B:But let me just ask you the question.
Speaker B:Right after Reggie Miller, there weren't a lot of people shooting like Reggie Miller, like Steph Curry.
Speaker B:Why is that?
Speaker B:Reggie Miller, back in the day was the most preeminent shooter in the league.
Speaker B:Yeah, like, he was the guy.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:But nobody wanted to shoot like him.
Speaker B:It's because he had like that weird thing.
Speaker A:It's actually very.
Speaker A:No, it's very.
Speaker A:First of all, Reggie Miller Shaw was very unorthodox.
Speaker A:His hands would cross.
Speaker A:So yeah, that's.
Speaker A:You don't want to.
Speaker A:You can't practice that.
Speaker A:And Steph Curry, people can't shoot like him because it's actually very difficult.
Speaker A:I can't.
Speaker A:I don't Want to even get into mechanics?
Speaker B:Did I suggest that?
Speaker B:It was easy.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:You said, why aren't people shooting like Steph Curry?
Speaker B:A lot of people try to shoot like Steph Curry.
Speaker B:Nobody tried to shoot like.
Speaker A:No, no.
Speaker A:They try to shoot the same shots as Steph Curry.
Speaker A:They don't shoot like Steph Curry.
Speaker A:That's two completely different things.
Speaker B:Let's get back to the finance, shall we?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Futures attached to the Dow Industrial Jones.
Speaker B:A Dow Jones Industrial Average probably say that, right?
Speaker B:Rose 0.4%.
Speaker B:The benchmark for the S&P gained 0.5%.
Speaker B:Futures for the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.6%.
Speaker B:Yet the market was expressing fear and the Dow was up.
Speaker B:But it's a bruising day on Wall Street.
Speaker B:These are mixed messages.
Speaker B:These are the same damn article.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:These are two paragraphs apart.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:And people like Chris buy the dip.
Speaker B:How do you know it's a dip?
Speaker A:How do you know it's a dip?
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Exactly.
Speaker B:On one hand, in the same article, two paragraphs, consecutive paragraphs.
Speaker B:Very contradictory statements.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I mean, well, explain to people what's the thought process behind those individuals that are saying, buy the dip?
Speaker B:Because people say, look, if you don't take on risk, you don't get rewards.
Speaker B:They're saying, take on the risk of the market being at its low point and buy now.
Speaker B:But here's the problem.
Speaker B:If the market continues to go lower, what do you take on?
Speaker B:More risk, you buy more and then at some point you run out of money.
Speaker B:It's like going to Las Vegas.
Speaker B:And here's the greatest example I can give you, that's non financial.
Speaker B:You go to Las Vegas, you play blackjack.
Speaker B:$50 a hand, right.
Speaker B:That's your dollar cost averaging 50 a hand.
Speaker B:You're hoping you win more hands than you lose.
Speaker A:Yeah, right.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:But you lose a couple hands.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:You need a bankroll.
Speaker A:You gotta.
Speaker A:You need a bankroll to start, right?
Speaker B:You're gonna need some money to back that bankroll if you lost a couple hands.
Speaker B:And then there's always that guy, you know what?
Speaker B:I'm losing, but I can make more money if I play two hands at the same time.
Speaker A:Split it.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Or I bet a hundred dollars per hand.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And then you lose that hand.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Now what are you gonna do?
Speaker B:Now you've lost two hands in a row, plus the one you doubled down on.
Speaker B:So now you've lost.
Speaker B:But I'm down 50 and 100.
Speaker A:But now I'm gonna hit this one.
Speaker A:So you know what?
Speaker A:I'm gonna do.
Speaker A:I'm gonna make up for it.
Speaker A:I'm gonna put 300.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:It's always better to play the game a little longer and bet just 50 a hand and be consistent than it is to go in, bet more, come in, bet less, go in, bet more, take more losses.
Speaker A:I think this example works a little bit better at the craps table, but I'll.
Speaker A:I'll let it go.
Speaker B:You know, I love playing craps, but I will.
Speaker A:It's the most fun game.
Speaker B:Just bet the line.
Speaker A:Just bet the line.
Speaker B:It's all you got to do.
Speaker A:It's the most fun game once you understand the rules.
Speaker B:I was in my late 20s before I actually played, like, a real game of craps.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And I.
Speaker B:That first time, I cried, you know, like, all those tables.
Speaker B:You've seen the movies.
Speaker B:Everyone's like, yeah, it's amazing.
Speaker B:They keep the dice roll.
Speaker B:Everybody's blowing on your dice, and you're like, yeah, I'm the man.
Speaker B:That was my first experience.
Speaker A:That was your first one?
Speaker A:My first experience.
Speaker A:I remember blowing 300.
Speaker A:And I'm not a gambler.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:But I.
Speaker A:I lost $300, and at the time, that was a lot of money for me.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:It's not haram, bro.
Speaker A:I know.
Speaker A:It is haram, bro.
Speaker A:You mean halal?
Speaker A:I don't know.
Speaker A:It's not halal, bro.
Speaker A:It's haram.
Speaker A:And I lost it in 15 minutes, but it felt like the longest time.
Speaker A:And I remember feeling like that was the best $300 I've ever spent.
Speaker B:That casino air.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:I swear, oxygen rich.
Speaker B:Feels fresh.
Speaker B:Wonder how much they spend on those air systems.
Speaker B:It's got to be wild.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:All right, so now the third paragraph in this article.
Speaker B:So one product.
Speaker B:Article one, negative.
Speaker B:Article two is, like, it's relatively positive.
Speaker B:Article three, you ready?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Stocks extend their slide on Wednesday as Powell speaks in Chicago.
Speaker B:So now the president's affecting the economy, and so is the Fed secretary.
Speaker B:Everybody's affecting the economy, right?
Speaker B:So if.
Speaker B:And here's the crazy part.
Speaker B:If Jerome Powell point Trump and say, hey, look, politically, you're affecting the market, you're dragging stocks down with some of these tariffs conversations.
Speaker B:Now, Trump could point to you and be like, stop talking to Chicago.
Speaker B:You're dragging the market down with your negative optimism.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:You're saying things that are dragging people down.
Speaker B:You're a buzzkill, bro.
Speaker B:You're buzzkill in the market.
Speaker B:At least I'm trying to do something.
Speaker B:You're out here just scaring people.
Speaker A:Is he really scaring People, though, I feel like he.
Speaker A:Everything, every time Jerome Powell speaks, it's just.
Speaker A:He's just calming the waters.
Speaker B:Okay, let me continue.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Stocks extended their slide on Wednesday as Powell, speaking in Chicago.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Issued his starkest warning yet on how tariffs could affect the U.S.
Speaker B:economy.
Speaker B:Fed Chair said the central bank would likely face a, quote, challenging scenario considering he expects the levies to exasperate inflation and slow economic growth that we covered in the previous article.
Speaker B:Powell also threw cold water on hopes that the central bank would eminently slash interest rates as tariffs roll in, saying the Fed officials will, quote.
Speaker B:Wait.
Speaker B:For greater clarity.
Speaker B:See, now, his comments in that speech are put in a position where you understand the impacts the economy on Trump's trade policy.
Speaker A:Yeah, but it's not his job to save the day.
Speaker A:In this instance, it's not.
Speaker B:But he does have impact on the.
Speaker B:He's saying stuff that moves markets just as much as Trump is saying something.
Speaker A:No, yeah, yeah, yeah, you're right.
Speaker A:He can.
Speaker A:But up until now he hasn't.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:So what he's just setting the table for is everyone's like, hey, when, when all this hits the fan, right?
Speaker A:Look that way.
Speaker B:Don't, don't you dare.
Speaker A:Don't you dare look over here.
Speaker B:But again, if you're the guy in my DM saying, chris, I'm gonna buy Nvidia today, I'm buying the dip.
Speaker B:Yeah, it's the dip.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Okay, well, let's go on.
Speaker B:Before and after Powell spoke, Nvidia's shares tanked on the news.
Speaker B:The chip giant would face new curbs from the US Government on sales to China.
Speaker B:Tanked.
Speaker B:That's the word.
Speaker B:Tanked.
Speaker A:Tanked.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:On Thursday, the focus for Wall street will be Netflix's quarterly earnings report.
Speaker A:Was.
Speaker A:It was tanked.
Speaker A:It was down like 9%, right?
Speaker B:Eight, man.
Speaker A:Come on, man, let me tank you.
Speaker B:Look it up.
Speaker B:Tanks today.
Speaker A:Here, I got you right here.
Speaker A:Today.
Speaker A:7%.
Speaker B:But how much is 7%?
Speaker A:Yeah, true.
Speaker A:And after hours, it's one.
Speaker B:Okay, yeah.
Speaker B:So not good.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker B:But.
Speaker B:So tomorrow, Thursday, Netflix was going to be reporting.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Quarterly earnings report, which is set for release after the bell.
Speaker B:The big tech, unsettled with Big tech was unsettled by Trump's tariffs.
Speaker B:The streaming giant has emerged as a rare bright spot among the group and investors to hold high hopes for its results.
Speaker B:And I'm going to give you some unsolicited optimism.
Speaker A:Give it to me.
Speaker B:I'm blowing all the sunshine in all the holes right now for you, ok?
Speaker B:I want rainbows coming out of everything.
Speaker A:All right, let's go.
Speaker B:Netflix is an interesting company to consider buying right now.
Speaker B:And I'm not endorsing them.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:I'm just saying that historically they've exhibited patterns of behavior in similar situated economies that make them a true outlier.
Speaker B:Not saying to buy the dip, saying that Netflix typically shines in economies like this.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:So maybe not a dip, but maybe an opportunity for future growth here based on historical performance.
Speaker B:True.
Speaker A:Yeah, true.
Speaker B:So Nvidia has China drama.
Speaker B:I want to frame this, right?
Speaker B:The Biden administration was cracking down on AI chip exports.
Speaker B:Tariffs are now a bipartisan weapon.
Speaker B:Nvidia, which gets a chunk of its data center revenue from China, is now a target.
Speaker B:And so this is the ramifications that they're getting.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:So now they have exports, plus they have the data center business out there.
Speaker B:Nvidia's market cap dropped over $100 billion a day earlier this year.
Speaker B:A reminder of how fragile tech dominance really is under geopolitical stress.
Speaker B:So these, these events can have real meaningful dollar impacts.
Speaker B:So again, buy the dip, dude.
Speaker B:I don't know where that's at.
Speaker B:If you're in video, 7% down on a day is not a big deal.
Speaker B:But a hundred billion dollar swing in their market cap, that's a big loss.
Speaker A:It's a big loss.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:So there's some market skittish.
Speaker B:We should.
Speaker B:Numbers we should probably frame up here.
Speaker B:As of this week, the s and P500 is down about 9% year to date.
Speaker B:Not a huge number, but down.
Speaker B:Okay, Right.
Speaker B:But guess what?
Speaker B: rate hiking cycles since: Speaker A:Oh, yeah, and we, we talked about that.
Speaker B:You brought that up.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, we, we said that after a recession has been declared over, it usually takes about a year for 75 to 85% of the market to be back in the green.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Is the green or the black?
Speaker B:Black, Black, positive, red, Negative.
Speaker B:Yeah, Black and red.
Speaker A:Yeah, Black and yellow.
Speaker B:Black and yellow.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:To be black and yellow.
Speaker A:But.
Speaker A:And after three years, 100% of the time, you're back in the black.
Speaker B:So instead of buying the dip, my response to everybody has been this.
Speaker B:You ready?
Speaker B:But to just blow minds right now.
Speaker B:Okay, people, People are driving the car.
Speaker B:You should probably brace yourself.
Speaker B:Don't hit the brakes when you hear this, right?
Speaker A:To be on a T shirt.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:This is going to be big.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:All right.
Speaker B:I don't want anybody driving to get into a car accident.
Speaker B:I don't Want to be responsible for you going, oh, my God, he's a genius.
Speaker B:All right, so maybe it's not selling may and go away.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:More like buy and main.
Speaker B:Pray.
Speaker B:Buy me and pray.
Speaker B:Sponsored by the higher standard.
Speaker B:You gave me the gooseneck.
Speaker B:I think you're flirting with me.
Speaker B:All right, so Netflix narrative.
Speaker B:Let's talk about that.
Speaker B:Netflix ad tier and password crackdowns are actually paying off.
Speaker B:I'm the guy who's like, bruh, I can't share my passwords.
Speaker B:I know you and ruin your passwords all the time.
Speaker A:No, for Netflix, I don't share passwords with anybody.
Speaker A:Netflix.
Speaker B:Because people from Netflix listen to the show, right?
Speaker A:No, no, but YouTube TV.
Speaker B:Gooseneck.
Speaker B:Gooseneck, I get it.
Speaker A:No, YouTube TV.
Speaker A:We do.
Speaker A:But Netflix, you know, And I guess here's the thing a lot of people have told me about a couple different shows on Apple.
Speaker A:Whatever, right?
Speaker B:Severance.
Speaker A:Severance, Right.
Speaker B:So good.
Speaker A:And there's another one, too, that people have spoken about, but I'm like, everything I need is kind of on Netflix.
Speaker A:If I do want to watch something.
Speaker B:Netflix gets some state gets stale sometimes.
Speaker B:Like, you'll scroll through and be like, I seen that.
Speaker A:I don't seen it.
Speaker A:Seen it.
Speaker B:I'm watching a Korean movie now on.
Speaker B:On Netflix.
Speaker B:It's all, like, dubbed.
Speaker B:I love it.
Speaker A:I'm watching.
Speaker A:I'm watching two things now.
Speaker A:God, get upset.
Speaker B:I am.
Speaker B:I am already upset.
Speaker B:I'm not about to.
Speaker B:I'm already.
Speaker A:Well, this is personal.
Speaker A:This is not with the wife, so she doesn't watch.
Speaker B:It makes it worse.
Speaker A:What do you mean?
Speaker B:You could personally be watching the shows.
Speaker B:I have personally told you.
Speaker A:This is.
Speaker B:This is that I know you will personally enjoy.
Speaker A:This is.
Speaker A:This is why you use your wife.
Speaker B:As a reason why you're not personally watching that.
Speaker B:You personal.
Speaker A:Yeah, you can't say that.
Speaker A:This is when I'm on the treadmill.
Speaker B:Just fill in any exploit if you want, right?
Speaker A:This is when I'm on the treadmill in the morning doing my morning walks.
Speaker B:That's when I watch my shows, too.
Speaker B:God, I hate you so much.
Speaker A:No, you're a terrible person.
Speaker A:Okay, here's my shows.
Speaker B:You're a liar.
Speaker A:Court of Gold right now.
Speaker B:I don't even know what that is.
Speaker A:Shame.
Speaker A:Shame.
Speaker B:Is that the shame you're feeling for.
Speaker A:Not watching the shows in full swing?
Speaker B:What the hell are these shows about?
Speaker A:Yeah, okay.
Speaker A:Court of Gold is.
Speaker A:Is a documentary on the Olympics for the men's national basketball team.
Speaker B:You have a problem, okay?
Speaker A:You've got a legitimate addiction in sports and full swing.
Speaker A:Full swing is for golf.
Speaker B:I feel like you legitimately have, like, a real sports betting problem that you're not talking about on the show.
Speaker A:No, no, I've.
Speaker A:I have intentionally never made one sports bet because I know myself.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:It's gonna get carried away, and I.
Speaker A:Here's.
Speaker A:Here's the problem for me.
Speaker A:I don't even look at the odds because I don't want to start thinking about it while I'm.
Speaker B:Did you ever win the lottery?
Speaker B:Like, I'm never going to see you again because you read a sports book every single day.
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:I would come back and troll you every single day.
Speaker B:That's probably smart.
Speaker B:There's a guy I follow on.
Speaker B:On Instagram.
Speaker B:His name is King Hillbilly, who literally is the.
Speaker B:The weird nails painted grill.
Speaker B:Like, all these bright colors.
Speaker B:Always wear.
Speaker A:That's what I would do to you.
Speaker B:Bright jerseys.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Where his sacks, his pants, low walks all weird, has a big truck, and everyone's like, how's this guy got money?
Speaker B:Like, what does he do?
Speaker B:He literally went on and did like a.
Speaker B:Like a reel about.
Speaker B:I won the lottery.
Speaker B:His lottery ticket.
Speaker B:He showed it and, like, copied in color, and he's like, I want it from this.
Speaker B:This convenience store that I visit every day.
Speaker B:I come here every day, buy a Pepsi and gamble some more.
Speaker B:And, like, I imagine you would be King Hillbilly if you wanted.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:If you got Instagram, look up Hillbilly.
Speaker B:He is a character, bro.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Hit up his comment section.
Speaker A:Tell him to come on the higher standard.
Speaker A:We.
Speaker A:We'll put him on.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Let's talk about some financial literacy, because clearly you don't have it.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Let's talk about what you should be doing with your money.
Speaker B:I'm like, you want a million dollars, but, like, half that went to taxes, right?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And then you spend 100,000 on that truck, which is a pretty badass truck, I'm not gonna lie.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And then, you know.
Speaker B:But, hey, whatever.
Speaker B:Shout out to him.
Speaker B:Good for him.
Speaker B:All right, so Netflix is.
Speaker A:Wait, wait, hold on real quick.
Speaker A:I do feel like, though, I want to come back to this later.
Speaker B:You're a gambling addiction.
Speaker A:No, no.
Speaker A:A lot of people play this game.
Speaker A:I think it would be a fun game for us to structure for a show on, like, if you won the lottery.
Speaker A:Here's a smart way to handle it.
Speaker B:Can we also have a segment where we talk about the really bad decision?
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, of course.
Speaker A:No, we.
Speaker A:We end it.
Speaker A:We come back full circle that with how we would Actually spend it.
Speaker B:You know what I would love to do?
Speaker B:I would love to frame the lot.
Speaker B:First of all, I don't.
Speaker B:I don't play the lottery.
Speaker B:I call it poor people tax.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I don't do that.
Speaker A:I call for people.
Speaker B:Ye.
Speaker B:I would.
Speaker B:If I ever did and I won, I would frame the ticket.
Speaker B:Yeah, right.
Speaker B:Like someone frames a jersey with a picture of me holding the ticket next to it.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And make it big.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I put it on a chain.
Speaker A:I would.
Speaker A:It would be the emblem of a chain.
Speaker B:No, it would be big.
Speaker B:It would be like a shepherd farlay.
Speaker B:Like, print in my office on a.
Speaker A:Spinner, and it would just spin on.
Speaker B:The wall behind me.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Just so everybody who talked to me has to look at it.
Speaker B:Like, I want you to see that behind me at all times.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Acknowledge the picture before you speak to me.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And then I'm gonna do a lot of stuff, like.
Speaker B:Yeah, I'm gonna go ahead and say no to that.
Speaker B:You know, just.
Speaker B:And just say no to, like, stuff that people are asking me to do that I clearly should do, but I'm not gonna do.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:Just because I want you to know that I'm not doing it.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Yeah, I'm gonna go ahead and say no.
Speaker A:But go ahead and say no to that.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Put it on the next meeting.
Speaker B:Or like, hey, Chris, can you.
Speaker B:Can you attend this meeting?
Speaker B:I'll think about that and get back to you.
Speaker B:Wait, what?
Speaker A:What?
Speaker B:Yeah, I'm gonna think about that meeting in my attendance at it, and I'm gonna.
Speaker B:I'm gonna circle back to you on it.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I hear your need for it, and I'm gonna let you know.
Speaker A:I don't feel like we'd last very long.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And then I've got my own personal assistant.
Speaker B:My assistant has talked to, make meetings with me.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:I'm gonna.
Speaker A:I'm gonna have an assistant to make sure my assistant's doing the assistant's job.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Can you check in with the assistant, make sure that you guys are figuring out what I'm supposed to be doing tomorrow?
Speaker B:And then you guys attend the meetings.
Speaker B:Let me know how I did.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:Well, that's what.
Speaker A:You know, that's what 50 sent did.
Speaker A:He had an accountant for his accountant.
Speaker B:Did he really?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Smart.
Speaker B:Don't trust that accountant, man.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And caught that account embezzling some.
Speaker A:Oh, man.
Speaker B:Damn, damn, damn.
Speaker B:Saeed.
Speaker B:Can't take your potty mouth anywhere.
Speaker A:52 minutes, man.
Speaker B:Gooseneck hand gestures in this.
Speaker A:That was a brick.
Speaker A:Yeah, that was the break.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:I believe this is two shows of you cussing and one show for me.
Speaker A:Yeah, it's two to one.
Speaker B:We gotta have like a scorecard.
Speaker A:But you get.
Speaker A:Hold on.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:You get away with a lot, though.
Speaker B:What do you mean?
Speaker B:You.
Speaker B:You.
Speaker A:You know what?
Speaker B:Like I'm cuss adjacent.
Speaker A:Yeah, you're custody.
Speaker A:You still say ass, and that's an animal.
Speaker A:Damn.
Speaker B:That's a bridge.
Speaker B:I'm cussing, Jason.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:You know what you're doing?
Speaker B:I can.
Speaker B:I can take those out of context and put them anywhere they're totally appropriate.
Speaker A:Right, right.
Speaker B:Mule shoot.
Speaker B:Makes an ass.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:You can say ship.
Speaker B:Yeah, ship it.
Speaker A:Yeah, ship it.
Speaker B:All right, so Netflix is set to report first quarter earnings after the bell on Thursday.
Speaker B:Tomorrow, the company is sitting as one of the best positioned big tech names amid uncertain economic environment dominated by President Trump's trade war.
Speaker B:Why?
Speaker B:Well, amid recent market volatility, Netflix's strong subscription model with critical entertainment.
Speaker B:Critical, questionable, but whatever, which historically has performed well in a recession, has made the stock a defense choice for investors.
Speaker B:Bank of America analyst Jessica Rafe Ehrlich wrote on Tuesday.
Speaker B:I agree with that.
Speaker B:They clearly won the streaming wars.
Speaker B:Everybody else is trying to catch up to what they did.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Netflix's stock is up 9% this year, standout when measured against year to date declines of 17% or more.
Speaker B:For its larger tech peers, including Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and the S and P.
Speaker B: % in: Speaker A:Wow.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:So S&P off 9%.
Speaker B:By the way.
Speaker B:Not all of them.
Speaker B:Sorry.
Speaker B:Here's what Wall street expects for the first quarter according to Bloomberg's consensus estimates.
Speaker B:Because, you know, I got to do some estimates every once in a while.
Speaker B:Revenue of 10.5 billion versus 9.37 billion last year.
Speaker B:Netflix's guidance was 10.42 billion.
Speaker B:So they issued guidance.
Speaker B:They said, hey, last year.
Speaker B:And for those of you listening, Chris, I don't care about Jerome pal.
Speaker B:Here's the educational portion of the show.
Speaker B:Okay?
Speaker B:Here's the part where you go, oh, I learned something today.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Side can't control his potty mouth.
Speaker B:And here's how you look at guidance.
Speaker A:Yeah, Right.
Speaker B:So they last year put out $9.37 billion in revenue.
Speaker B:They issued guidance saying, hey, we expect next year to have 10.42 billion in revenue.
Speaker B:That's their guidance.
Speaker B:We expect to grow from this to that.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Their revenue is looking to be about 10.5 billion.
Speaker B:That's a revenue beat.
Speaker B:So anytime you turn on cnbc, you Watch the news.
Speaker B:Someone says they had a revenue beat.
Speaker B:That's what they're saying.
Speaker B:They gave guidance.
Speaker B:They outperformed that guidance.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:No different than when you go to your boss and you say, I'll probably get that report over to you by Friday.
Speaker A:And then you end up delivering to them on Thursday.
Speaker B:Which side has no idea what that feels like?
Speaker A:No, under promising, over delivery.
Speaker A:And that's what, that's what I'm great at.
Speaker A:This is what I do.
Speaker B:That's a way to stay in business, brother.
Speaker B:I got you their earnings per share.
Speaker B:EPS, as you often heard, $5 and $0.68 versus $5 and $0.28 last year.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:So they've now got earnings per share of 5.68 cents.
Speaker B:Last year was 5.28.
Speaker B:Their guidance was 558.
Speaker B:They beat it by 10 cents a share.
Speaker B:That is an earnings per share beat.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:So when, when they raise their prices, it's literally every one of their users.
Speaker B:Just so a little fun fact about that.
Speaker B:So Netflix users and subscription numbers historically have always been a point of fodder and conversations like, oh, the subscriptions, other subscribers going up, are they going down?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Little point of note here, Saeed.
Speaker B:This will also be Netflix's first report that no longer reports subscriber numbers as the company focuses on driving greater engagement and top line growth.
Speaker A:Meaning revenue smart by them because they know that if they do raise it, I mean, how many users they got?
Speaker A:150 million.
Speaker B:You can look that up.
Speaker B:But it's, it's, let's just, let's just.
Speaker A:Say 20 million users.
Speaker B:I think in 20.
Speaker B:20.
Speaker A:Way more, actually.
Speaker B:I actually have the number here.
Speaker B:I'm just messing with you.
Speaker B:I want you to work for no reason, so I'll give you that number in a second.
Speaker B:But when you're at, when you're top of the game, all you have is downside risk, right?
Speaker A:Exactly right.
Speaker B:So if all you have is downside risk, why go that route?
Speaker B:Is it raining outside?
Speaker A:Sounds like it, yeah.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker B:Making it rain out here, kids.
Speaker B:No, it's really raining.
Speaker B:I just want to point out we're not being douches.
Speaker B:So this first time they're not reporting, they're focus the top line revenue growth.
Speaker B: At the end of: Speaker A:Oh.
Speaker A:Double what I.
Speaker A:Wow.
Speaker A:Wow.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:So exactly.
Speaker A:And then if they reported the subscribers and that goes down, then that would just give more room for uncertainty for people to, you know, maybe sell.
Speaker A:But they know that if they raise it.
Speaker A:Only a certain percentage of the people might drop off, but revenue will still go up.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:So Netflix said in its fourth quarter shareholder letter that it will disclose subscriber data in the future as we cross key milestones.
Speaker B:So we'll let you know when we feel like we've made some, you know, real milestone.
Speaker A:Netflix is notorious for this.
Speaker A:They don't even let you see how many people have watched the videos.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:They don't even give the comedians.
Speaker A:I know the comedians that they sign and they do specials with.
Speaker A:They don't even give them the data.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And they control that really, really tightly.
Speaker B:But it limits your ability to make moves based on some of these outside metrics.
Speaker B:You just kind of have to wait for some of these numbers to be, you know, out there to perform.
Speaker B:But say what you will, it's worked for them, you know, Massive company.
Speaker B:Netflix has won the streaming wars.
Speaker B:Case closed.
Speaker B:Moffat.
Speaker B:Nathan Nathanson analyst Robert Fishman wrote in a client note last month.
Speaker B:I don't know who that is or what the company that is, but sounds like he knows what he's talking about.
Speaker B:Because Netflix has more content, it drives better engagement, leading to more subscribers and possibly better pricing power in a virtuous cycle.
Speaker B: clude doubling its revenue by: Speaker B:The streamer's market cap is currently just north of 400 billion.
Speaker A:Just to think where they started from, man.
Speaker A:And how they wiped out Blockbuster.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I was going to have that conversation with you on the show, but since you've already tapped it, dude, you went from mailing CDs.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:To taking out Blockbuster, which was like a preeminent part.
Speaker A:I remember, I remember when it first launched and people were getting DVDs in the mail, and I was thinking to.
Speaker B:Myself, I thought it was weird back then.
Speaker A:I.
Speaker A:I was, I didn't sign up for.
Speaker A:I was like, I don't really like, I still like the Blockbuster thing.
Speaker A:Like, it's still.
Speaker A:Because nostalgia.
Speaker B:I had strong reservations.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:But then the idea of stuff just showing up to your house, I'm like, wait, you.
Speaker B:Because back then, you have to, like, pick some titles that you wanted.
Speaker B:They would ship them to you when they got them.
Speaker A:Well, that was the thing.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:It's like, when I want to watch a movie, I want to go get it right then and there.
Speaker A:Come on.
Speaker A:And then I have to wait for it to in the mail.
Speaker A:Like Planet no.
Speaker B:But streaming.
Speaker B:Solve that.
Speaker A:And then.
Speaker A:And then they and then on demand, then they think about how many things.
Speaker B:In your life would be amazing on demand.
Speaker B:Yeah, right.
Speaker A:Think about that.
Speaker A:From like an explicit show.
Speaker A:Not.
Speaker A:Not a clean show, baby.
Speaker B:This on demand marriage.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:This.
Speaker A:This on demand both ways.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Yo, coworker, this is an on demand job.
Speaker B:Yeah, right.
Speaker B:Like, when I wants it right.
Speaker B:Be very different.
Speaker B:And I will say the Amazon's gotten pretty close to on demand for a lot of products.
Speaker B:You're like, wow.
Speaker B:Or if you want to do the Owen Wilson, wow.
Speaker B:All right, so Netflix, is Netflix recession proof?
Speaker B:You're asking me side is what you're.
Speaker A:Asking, Is it recession proof?
Speaker A:I don't think.
Speaker A:What is reset?
Speaker A:What does recession proof mean?
Speaker B: In: Speaker B:People dropped cable and sought cheaper entertainment, which I'm already seeing people do now, by the way.
Speaker B:Yeah, right.
Speaker B:With about 300 million global subscribers, as we last heard, Netflix now has more members than the entire US Adult population.
Speaker B:Yeah, let that marinate.
Speaker B:Yeah, you got to write, you got a good business.
Speaker B:At that point, you're doing something right.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:So ditching subscriber counts was an interesting choice by then, but I thought some color here would be interesting.
Speaker B:Netflix's decision to stop reporting subscribers numbers is bold and risky.
Speaker B:It's the equivalent of a gym chain saying, we're not counting members anymore.
Speaker B:Just how much you sweat.
Speaker B:See, I'm out here.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:But when you're at the top of the food chain, you.
Speaker A:You can get away with stuff like that, because crates.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:What are you gonna do?
Speaker A:Where are you gonna go?
Speaker B:Only place you gotta go is down.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker B:So.
Speaker A:No, no, but if you.
Speaker B:But you.
Speaker A:If you are that company, right.
Speaker A:You're the top of the food chain, and you got all these people wanting to invest in you, and you.
Speaker A:You think they're gonna stop investing in you because you stop showing that as long as you keep producing.
Speaker B:Well, let me frame this in a different way.
Speaker B:Wall street.
Speaker B:Stop caring about how many subscribers you have, because you have more than everybody.
Speaker B:They now want to know how sticky those subscribers are.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:They want to know how engaged in your content they are, how broad is their relationship with you.
Speaker B:Think about this in the context of a bank.
Speaker B:If you have a checking account with a bank, you're a client of theirs, and that might be valuable.
Speaker B:How many customers do you have?
Speaker B:But if you're somebody who has a checking account, a credit card, a bank loan, a home loan, now you've got a deeper relationship.
Speaker B:You're Less likely to leave.
Speaker A:Well, that was the one of the.
Speaker A:If I walked away from Wells Fargo learning anything, it was that model right there.
Speaker A:I mean, and that's what.
Speaker A:That's what got them in trouble, right?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Well, no, no, I should.
Speaker B:That's.
Speaker B:That's not what got them in trouble.
Speaker B:What got them in trouble was.
Speaker B:Was an over assertive sales culture, which was the end goal was that.
Speaker B:That.
Speaker B:That's.
Speaker B:That goal is the same for every company across the country.
Speaker A:100.
Speaker A:And when they would make you open up the account, they're like, make sure you sign them up for online banking.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Because you.
Speaker A:If you make someone take the time to set up the account log in, they're not going to want to redo that again.
Speaker B:It's like anybody listens to the show.
Speaker B:If you buy.
Speaker B:If you listen to our show and buy our merch, like you're a fan.
Speaker A:You're a fan.
Speaker B:And if you haven't bought our merch, shame what's wrong with you.
Speaker B:Shame you're not deep into your relationship with us.
Speaker B:Yeah, this isn't sticky.
Speaker A:Icky.
Speaker A:Yeah, we need a stickier relationship site.
Speaker B:Now's the time where you do the gooseneck.
Speaker A:Okay, got it.
Speaker B:That's what you are.
Speaker A:Look, I held the follow through too.
Speaker B:Yeah, still a brick.
Speaker B:All right, so let's talk about retail sales.
Speaker B:For those of you saying, well, Chris, I still don't understand how to invest.
Speaker B:What am I looking for?
Speaker B:Got you, dog.
Speaker A:What are you looking for right now?
Speaker A:Are you looking for deals like.
Speaker A:Like Warren B.
Speaker B:No.
Speaker B:No deals come to me.
Speaker B:That's not true at all.
Speaker B:Retail sales jumped in March.
Speaker B:This surprised me.
Speaker B:Driven by a rush to buy cars ahead of looming tariffs.
Speaker B:And that was the answer.
Speaker B:I was like, oh, that makes sense.
Speaker B:Tariffs are coming.
Speaker B:Gotta buy now.
Speaker B:Yeah, buy now.
Speaker A:Gotta buy right now.
Speaker B:Dave Ramsey.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Shout out.
Speaker B:Moody's analytics chief economist Mark Zandi joined the Morning Brief to break down why that surge raises recession risk and may hurt future spending.
Speaker A:Wait, who was that?
Speaker B:Mark Zandy, my guy.
Speaker A:What is it?
Speaker A:Moody's.
Speaker B:What?
Speaker B:Moody's guy, Mark Zandy.
Speaker A:Oh, I thought you.
Speaker A:I was.
Speaker B:I call him Zaddy.
Speaker A:I was expecting a different introduction.
Speaker A:I thought you were gonna say my boy Zandy.
Speaker B:Yeah, my.
Speaker B:My guy.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:So I actually saw him on.
Speaker B:On cnbc, and I sent him an email.
Speaker B:Last time I went to his conference, out front was a car with license plate that said Zaddy on it.
Speaker A:Stop it.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And I took a picture of it.
Speaker B:I sent it to him.
Speaker B:I'm like hey, did you drive here?
Speaker A:Hey.
Speaker A:Hey, is this where you park?
Speaker B:He thought I was like on drugs.
Speaker A:He's like what's wrong with you, Christopher?
Speaker B:What?
Speaker B:And you know for such a serious guy he's really cool to talk to.
Speaker B:Yeah, he's a nice guy.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:It really surprised me me still.
Speaker B:So Zaddy was on the show.
Speaker B:He said how poor for the future Mark.
Speaker B:This was a question to him and I'm gonna.
Speaker B:So I just rather than read you the article, I just took his quote directly from the thing.
Speaker B:So the question asked him is how poorly for the future Mark.
Speaker B:I wonder.
Speaker B:I know, I know that you had a recession call for about 60% odds of a recession as of April 10.
Speaker B:Where does that call stand for you today?
Speaker B:So Zaddy responds about the same.
Speaker B:It's.
Speaker B:I think it's I, it's.
Speaker B:I think odds are better than even maybe matter that that we're will suffering.
Speaker B:Let's do this again.
Speaker B:This is probably should have done this.
Speaker B:Now I look back on it matter that will suffer recession starting at some point this year to be precise 60%.
Speaker B:So that hasn't changed.
Speaker B:You know I think there's still a 40% chance that we don't go into recession.
Speaker B:And it depends on what the Trump administration does with the tariffs.
Speaker A:So he thinks the tariffs play a.
Speaker B:Big role in if they take an off ramp here and continue to de escalate lower the tariffs that'll improve.
Speaker B:They'll have imposed or threatened to impose the and that figure is a way out, you know that things may cool off and we basically will not likely have.
Speaker B:We'll have a much greater chance of not having recessions.
Speaker B:But he's basically putting the tariff conversation front and center and saying hey, if we get aggressive with this and a trade war results that's bad for everybody.
Speaker B:You can almost guarantee a recession.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's what he's paraphrasing here.
Speaker B:So retail sales up but March's retail sales spike was led by autos largely due to the buyer's race to get ahead of the tariffs.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Historical fact.
Speaker B: In: Speaker B: % but: Speaker A:Yeah man.
Speaker A:This isn't and this actually goes across all different sectors today too.
Speaker A:There's it came out was builders confidence.
Speaker B:Oh yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:That was down to a seven month low.
Speaker A:Yeah, right.
Speaker A:And it got me thinking because I remember when we first did our first tariff episode we knew that we were primarily talking about Canada and Mexico.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And we get a lot of lumber from Canada to.
Speaker A:For home building.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:And you're like, shout out to the Canadian listeners.
Speaker B:A lot of people who listen to this podcast are from Canada.
Speaker B:I don't know how we got you, but we love you.
Speaker A:That's the Drake thing.
Speaker A:That's what it is.
Speaker B:People do think you're Drake.
Speaker B:You get that a lot.
Speaker A:Not anymore.
Speaker A:Not with the gray, Mediterranean looking.
Speaker B:Derek, what's up?
Speaker A:Not a lot.
Speaker A:But so that kind of thing, man.
Speaker A:That, the homework affordability crisis.
Speaker A:That's not going to get any better anytime soon.
Speaker B:No.
Speaker A:Unless, by the way.
Speaker B:Unless we talked about that a whole lot lately.
Speaker A:I know we haven't.
Speaker A:And there's.
Speaker A:There was this whole thing that recently came out with Redfin and Zillow.
Speaker B:Can you imagine if you're a first time home buyer so pissed off that nobody's gonna talk about this anymore?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:You heard about this, right?
Speaker B:No.
Speaker A:So we had it on the, we talked about on the show when that the new law passed that now buyers are responsible to pay their own agents and sellers are responsible and they got to negotiate their own deals up front.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So the, the workaround that some agents have been doing is apparently they'll.
Speaker A:They just post on the agent website.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Just so I've seen this.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:You know, and then what they'll do is they'll go after a couple like week or so or two weeks, they'll head over to Redfin or Zillow and they'll just post it on there for like other agents to see.
Speaker A:Like coming soon.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:But not for the entire public to see.
Speaker A:So Redfin and Zillow came out recently.
Speaker A:Like they're shutting that whole operation down.
Speaker A:If you don't make it, if you don't make it public to everyone, then you're not listing it.
Speaker B:And look, this, this is where you get a lot of.
Speaker A:And I love that.
Speaker B:And I do too.
Speaker B:I think, I think it's very ethical.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:But you get a lot of real estate agents taking advantage of, I would say not a well healed law and set of circumstances that, that are going to get gut checked a little bit here.
Speaker A:I mean, have you spoken to.
Speaker A:I know we got a lot of agents that listen to the show a lot.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I was, I've been really curious to figure out what is.
Speaker A:Because for a long time, you know, the norm was obviously not the norm.
Speaker A:It was the industry standard that the seller would pay the agent's commission.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And I was waiting to see like.
Speaker A:Okay, because that could still be negotiated to where the seller still does that.
Speaker A:It's not that it's out.
Speaker A:Out completely.
Speaker A:Like you could still negotiate that if you wanted to, but now that they're not required to.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:I've been interested to see what is the norm that comes out of this.
Speaker A:Like what's the most practice way.
Speaker B:So you don't know this site, but a little teaser action here.
Speaker B:So I am rushing to finish the studio, the, the, the new studio space by May 1, largely because we have a litany of guests that we have lined up to come on the show because itching.
Speaker B:They're itching to come on.
Speaker B:But one of them is a very, very well known and respected real estate agent slash broker who owns a very big company who, who is going to come on and he's going to talk about a lot of the things that he's seeing in his niche.
Speaker B:Not only in his niche because it's one of those really high ultra net worth markets, but also with the clients that he serves and kind of the greater macro real estate community.
Speaker B:He's very much plugged in.
Speaker A:He's plugged in.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:And I thought that'd be a really interesting episode because number one, if you're a real estate agent or professional and you're in the space, this is somebody who you probably know.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And you probably want to hear this person speak.
Speaker B:Just a mindset position situation.
Speaker B:Great.
Speaker B:But if you're not in the real estate space, this is also somebody you want to listen to because they'll give you some perspective that I think will be.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Some insight.
Speaker A:I, I know plenty of like my friends that were home shopping that they didn't even realize that back then before the law changed that the seller was responsible to pay for their agents commissions and they're like, oh, I just stepped into like 15 grand, 10 grand, whatever it was.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Like that.
Speaker A:That's, that's awesome.
Speaker A:You know, but now it's like, wait a minute, who's going to be responsible for this and how much?
Speaker A:Because now that has to get negotiated up front.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And you, you got to wonder like, man, if I don him enough, is he gonna really.
Speaker B:They gonna dip.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Or are they not gonna do like their best work or you know what I mean?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Which, you know, I, I gotta make some motions but we'll talk about another show.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:But let's.
Speaker B:Let me give you some data about Zaddy and let's wrap this bad boy up.
Speaker B:You guys listen to us for a long time and I know you're thinking, God, I can listen to these two all day long.
Speaker B:But yeah, we don't want to over sensitize you.
Speaker A:Yeah, right.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Too much stigma.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker A:That's what we had to remove.
Speaker A:One episode a week.
Speaker A:We had to go, there's too much.
Speaker B:This is like crack rock for your brain.
Speaker B:For your brain.
Speaker B:All right, so Zaddy, my guy, Mark Zandy recession call hasn't changed at the current climate.
Speaker B: y's did happen to predict the: Speaker B:Okay, you're out here listening to Humphrey Yang.
Speaker B:Good for you, Patrick.
Speaker B:Bet David also fine.
Speaker B:No disrespect to either gentleman, but Zaddy's the guy.
Speaker B:Mark Zandi's the guy.
Speaker B:Look him up, follow him.
Speaker B:He's on.
Speaker B:On.
Speaker B:He's on X.
Speaker B:He doesn't respond to messages.
Speaker A:But dude, Humphrey Yang didn't need to catch a stray right there.
Speaker A:Why'd you do.
Speaker A:He's such a nice guy.
Speaker B:Nice guy.
Speaker A:I'm just saying compare him next to.
Speaker B:Pvd because I respect him.
Speaker A:That's so disrespectful, bro.
Speaker B:PBE was universally respected.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:He was so lovable.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:But look, look, the Yankees were like, here, we'll give you a piece.
Speaker B:I still, I still got respect for him.
Speaker B:Multi level marketing skills scam or not, I still got respect for.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:For him.
Speaker B:But you know, man, Humphrey Yang catches strays, bro.
Speaker B:Would you rather be Graham Stephan?
Speaker A:No, no, I'd be.
Speaker A:Yeah, I'd rather.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Graham 7.
Speaker A:Catch the strays now.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Valid point.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Mark Zandi suggests that the economy has no, quote, margin for error, for policy error.
Speaker B:That one tariff misstep and you could have a recession almost overnight is basically what he's suggesting.
Speaker B:So he's.
Speaker B:He's saying, is that fragile that week.
Speaker B:So consumer behavior and recession vibes and the dilemma that we're in.
Speaker B:For those of you who get in all of our DMs and you're asking, hey, look, like, what should.
Speaker B:How should I feel?
Speaker B:Should I buy the dip?
Speaker B:Should I not?
Speaker B:Should I buy this dog?
Speaker B:What should we looking at?
Speaker B:We give you some stuff to work with this episode, but I want to.
Speaker B:I want to leave you with some.
Speaker B:Some dessert.
Speaker B:I want to give you something that you go home and go, you know what?
Speaker B:That meal was good.
Speaker A:But the creme brulee.
Speaker B:The creme brulee, though, man.
Speaker A:Yo.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Okay, so let's pull forward spending and talk about a future drought Here.
Speaker B:The car buying rush in March is a classic pull forward spending behavior.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:But you can't look at that as a proxy for where it's going.
Speaker B:You can almost wager it's going to go the other way until such time as this tariff situation is resolved.
Speaker B:And I don't know that we've seen anything on the horizon.
Speaker B:So people, people buy now to beat tariffs, but then this front loaded buying means even if tariffs do get resolved, there won't be buying in the future at the same cadence that it would be in a normalized economy.
Speaker B:So expect weaker retail numbers over the summer.
Speaker B:You can expect it to happen sponsored by the higher standard.
Speaker A:There you go.
Speaker B:When you see weaker retail summer spending, I want you to go, damn those guys.
Speaker B:That's not your dom, Chris.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:I mean, when the, when the people over, the lovely people over at the National Bureau of Economic Research, when they wake up, are they still there?
Speaker A:There's, I think they're still there.
Speaker B:They've been allocated to like those, those sites, they just look at the stars.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And their sole job is looking for aliens.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:They've been repositioned.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:When, when they do come out and declare a recession.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And when they start to look at things, that shows signs of a recession.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:This is why we talk about some of these data points.
Speaker A:They're talking about gdp, they're talking about real income, employment, industrial production.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And they're talking about wholesale retail sales.
Speaker A:Wholesale, Wholesale, yeah.
Speaker A:Be careful.
Speaker B:Holiday Inn.
Speaker A:Holiday Inn, yeah.
Speaker B:Well, if creme brulee isn't your thing, how about a molten lava cake?
Speaker A:No, that's that you leave feeling gross with that.
Speaker B:Not all the time.
Speaker B:Sometimes you feel warm in the inside.
Speaker A:Oh, no, you can't feel good after eating lava cake.
Speaker B:Come on, you don't want that molten, warm molten lava.
Speaker A:No, no, no.
Speaker A:That's down your throat.
Speaker A:That's not, that ain't my cup of tea, bro.
Speaker B:It's not.
Speaker A:I, I size.
Speaker A:I euro stepped that one.
Speaker A:I was like, nope, I'm going right around this.
Speaker B:Just molten lava cake.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Very chocolatey and rich.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:Flavorful, chocolatey lava.
Speaker A:Okay, I got it, I got it.
Speaker B:Tariffs affect supply chains in layers.
Speaker B:Okay?
Speaker A:Layers.
Speaker B:It's not, it's not just jamming in and it's done.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:It affects other things, of course.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Steel tariffs make cars more expensive.
Speaker A:Trickle, if you will.
Speaker B:A trickle effect.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:Tech tariffs affect appliance costs, consumer electronics, even home improvement tools.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:So everything as we know gets more expensive.
Speaker B:So it's not Just a tax on imports, which we all feel that it's a tax on us.
Speaker B:That's what it really is.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker B:It's a tax on your fridge, your iPhone, and your ability to fix your garage door.
Speaker A:Oh, gosh.
Speaker B:So you need to understand these things will become more expensive.
Speaker B:And as a result, even if consumers are still financially strong by the summertime, you've seen a pull forward in spending, and now you're going to have more expensive products.
Speaker B:There will be a drop in consumer spending in the summer of this year.
Speaker A:Okay?
Speaker A:And I got a perfect little story about this to wrap up.
Speaker B:If you wrap up the show with a terrible story, I'm just telling you right now, I will put baby powder on my hand and I will slap you like LeBron James.
Speaker B:I know that I wanted to slap.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Stephen A.
Speaker B:Smith.
Speaker A:Stephen A.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Essay.
Speaker A:They call him.
Speaker B:Come on, man.
Speaker A:Yeah, they call him that.
Speaker A:It's s.
Speaker A:You can't call him that.
Speaker B:No, that's what they call him.
Speaker B:I don't care, man.
Speaker A:The homies call him that.
Speaker B:That bro.
Speaker A:Sa.
Speaker A:Steven A.
Speaker B:That's not appropriate.
Speaker B:I would.
Speaker B:I would object to that nickname.
Speaker A:That's what they call him.
Speaker A:I'm just saying what they say on live television.
Speaker B:Why don't they just call them sassy on the mouse?
Speaker A:On the mouse.
Speaker B:Sas.
Speaker A:They use sassy.
Speaker A:This is how you know when you start to see, like, real life, things start to change and you're like, wait a minute, are we.
Speaker A:Are we starting to go through it?
Speaker A:I was leaving the office the other day, okay.
Speaker B:At a balmy 7:00pm huh?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Well, here at a time at a.
Speaker A:At a decent hour, where.
Speaker A:What I mean by that is the valet was still open.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:And park next to me in general population.
Speaker B:GP.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:GP was in McLaren.
Speaker A:What's going on, bro?
Speaker B:What do you mean?
Speaker A:How you not valet a McLaren?
Speaker A:To me, that's a real tell sign of.
Speaker A:Of the times.
Speaker A:Who's parking a McLaren in general?
Speaker A:Pop, can I be honest?
Speaker B:I'm upset a lot of people right now.
Speaker B:I'm gonna break some hearts.
Speaker A:Okay?
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:McLaren is not a real exotic.
Speaker B:I said it.
Speaker A:It's still very expensive, though.
Speaker B:It's a faux Ferrari.
Speaker A:Yeah, it is.
Speaker B:I said it.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:I like Ferraris better myself.
Speaker B:When the door handle jiggle, jiggle.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:I'm not impressed.
Speaker A:But I walked by it, and I.
Speaker B:Have a lot of people who drive McLaren's like, oh, I love the LP, whatever, blah, blah, blah.
Speaker B:Five.
Speaker B:This.
Speaker B:Five.
Speaker B:I don't care, bro.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Y'all really want a Ferrari.
Speaker A:That's what you really want.
Speaker B:But you got a McLaren.
Speaker A:Why?
Speaker A:I thought McLaren's are more expensive.
Speaker B:Some are, some aren't.
Speaker A:Really?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I'm a Ferrari.
Speaker A:I'm not gonna lie.
Speaker A:As a kid growing up, I always heard McLaren and I.
Speaker B:They were very different back then, you know?
Speaker A:I know.
Speaker A:And then heard.
Speaker A:Heard of Lamborghinis, heard of Ferraris.
Speaker A:Right, right.
Speaker A:And I had seen probably five to ten Lamborghinis, like, as a kid, maybe like two or three Ferraris.
Speaker A:Never saw.
Speaker B:I see that many a day now.
Speaker A:I know.
Speaker A:No, like, on the drive home, you see it, like, you're gonna.
Speaker B:You're bouncing.
Speaker B:But us, bro.
Speaker A:What?
Speaker A:And there's so many Rolls Royces around.
Speaker A:Like, what's going on?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Stop it.
Speaker A:Enough, bro.
Speaker B:I had a friend pull up the other day in a Cullen.
Speaker A:What?
Speaker B:Yeah, the orange interior.
Speaker B:And I walked up to his car and I'm like, man.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Come on, man.
Speaker B:Insert expletive here.
Speaker B:You.
Speaker A:Yeah, I was.
Speaker B:I was pissed, bro.
Speaker B:I'm like, what is this?
Speaker B:He's like, what?
Speaker B:It's a nice car.
Speaker B:I'm like, man, you stop.
Speaker A:You don't need to be doing all this.
Speaker B:Buy yourself a Rivian, like a normal person.
Speaker B:Damn it.
Speaker A:Too much?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Bright orange interior.
Speaker A:Not with.
Speaker B:It had his name, like, you know, embossed in the background.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Not even embroidered.
Speaker B:Embossed.
Speaker A:Embossed.
Speaker B:I'm like, come on, man.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:This is absurd.
Speaker A:He wanted you to see it, too, huh?
Speaker A:He wanted you to see it.
Speaker B:I just want everybody to know if you ever see a black Cullinan pull up with the orange interior.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And there's an emoji, eggplant, embossed in the headrest.
Speaker B:That's me.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's me.
Speaker A:That's yours.
Speaker B:I put it there.
Speaker A:I used to tell people if I ever hit the lotto, which I'm not going to, because I don't play, I would.
Speaker A:I would buy one of those exotic cars, and I would just get it, like, in, like, a boring, like, navy blue.
Speaker A:Blue.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:Because it's like, oh, he's got a boring navy blue one.
Speaker A:That means the obnoxious yellow ones at home somewhere.
Speaker A:So I'm already.
Speaker B:I don't think anybody's ever thought that.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I'm accounting for two.
Speaker B:That's just you and your imaginary friend, you guys sitting on the table, talking about that.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Not watching Severance together.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Court of Gold.
Speaker A:You got it.
Speaker B:Laughing about.
Speaker B:I'll watch.
Speaker B:You gotta go.
Speaker B:No, you gotta watch.
Speaker B:It.
Speaker A:Yeah, it's amazing.
Speaker B:You watch Loki?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And Full swing.
Speaker A:It's great.
Speaker B:The letter after eu.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:You get creative.
Speaker B:I gotta come up with creative ways in a way.
Speaker A:Well done.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:All right, so if you've stuck around this long and you haven't actually left us an honest 5 star review, now would be the time.
Speaker A:Please head over to Apple or Spotify.
Speaker B:I'll make it easier.
Speaker B:Click all the things.
Speaker B:Okay, but go.
Speaker B:Leave a comment on every damn site you watch us on.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And if you're over on YouTube, hit that like, button.
Speaker A:Subscribe.
Speaker A:Ring that notification bell.
Speaker A:I know we're an hour and 20 in, you probably fell off button, but it means a lot to us.
Speaker B:Nobody fell off.
Speaker B:Canadians are loyal.
Speaker A:The Canadians are very Canadians.
Speaker B:Listen to the end every single episode.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Shout out.
Speaker A:Honestly, shout out to the listeners that watch us on their TVs at home in the living room.
Speaker B:Yeah, man.
Speaker A:Yeah, man.
Speaker A:I'm like.
Speaker B:Always weirds me out.
Speaker A:I'm like, that's cool, man.
Speaker B:It's cool, but it wears me out.
Speaker A:It does.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Like, I'm like, man, yeah.
Speaker B:I almost.
Speaker B:I almost want you not to look at my face.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker B:Good night, everybody.
Speaker A:Good night, everybody.
Speaker B:Bye.
Speaker B:Okay, bye.
Speaker A:The reverse.
Speaker B:Yeah, the reverse.
Speaker B:Who knows?
