The Art of the Tariff: Trump Shakes the Global Trade Table
Chris Naghibi and Saied Omar toss aside their planned topics faster than a politician dodging a question to tackle the economic grenade President Trump just lobbed: tariffs. And not just any tariffs—reciprocal tariffs with the subtlety of a wrecking ball. With import taxes soaring as high as 49%, countries like China, India, and the EU are basically being told, “Nice try, but America first.” As global markets went into panic mode, futures took a nosedive, and investors clutched their portfolios like toddlers clinging to their blankies.
➡️ But fear not—Chris and Saied break it all down with historical flair (hello, Smoot-Hawley), modern spice, and a side of "WTF just happened to the stock market?" They explore the ripple effects on jobs, car prices (RIP affordable Jeeps), and even what this might mean for that imported espresso machine you were eyeing. If you’ve ever wondered how tariffs could impact your wallet, your 401(k), and your stress levels all at once, this episode delivers answers with wit, wisdom, and the economic sass you never knew you needed.
💥 Have you left your "honest ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️" review?
👕 THS MERCH: http://www.thspod.com
🔗 Resources:
President Trump’s Economic Plan Breakdown (NBC News)
Stock Market Reacts to Trump’s Tariff Announcement (CNN)
Trump Announces Higher Reciprocal Tariff Rates (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)
Trump Unveils Sweeping Global Tariffs (The New York Times)
These Cars May Be More Expensive As Trump’s Auto Tariffs Take Effect (Forbes)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.
Transcript
You ready to do this?
Speaker A:Well, no, I'm not ready to do this.
Speaker B:I'm still feel defeated.
Speaker A:No, I'm still in shock.
Speaker A:Actually.
Speaker A:The, the day for me unfolded a little differently than most days today.
Speaker A:Yeah, I banging away on the laptop, you know, trying to do the Lord's work, make a dollar out of 15 cents.
Speaker A:And I happen to look up at CNBC post close of the markets.
Speaker A:I'm on the West coast around 1:00 and there's a emergency press conference going on.
Speaker A:We all knew that Trump was going to roll out the tariffs today, so I was still in the not so surprised camp.
Speaker A:Ok.
Speaker A:And then I saw the tariffs roll out.
Speaker B:Oh boy.
Speaker A:Oh my God.
Speaker B:My goodness.
Speaker B:Before you get into that.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Welcome back to the number one financial literacy podcast in the world.
Speaker B:This is the Higher Standard.
Speaker B:Sitting next to me on my left is my partner in crime, Christopher Nahibi.
Speaker A:And sitting next to me is my partner in time, the one and only Saitomar.
Speaker B:Thank you, my man.
Speaker B:And sitting behind the ones and twos, we have nobody, not a single person.
Speaker B:Yeah, nobody's there.
Speaker B:Before we get into the show, which we have a lot of important things to discuss, a lot of, a lot.
Speaker B:The conversation around tariffs and how this impacts everybody, the economy, how, how it impacts your money, your investments.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Let's start off with a positive review of the show.
Speaker A:Oh, I forgot we got reviews.
Speaker B:We did.
Speaker A:I was so stunned by today's tariff talk that I just, I completely went left on.
Speaker B:You deserve, you deserve to be at the top of the show if you do this.
Speaker B:And if you haven't done so already, head over to Apple or Spotify.
Speaker B:Leave us an honest five star review.
Speaker B:It does a lot for the show.
Speaker B:Or go over to YouTube, subscribe.
Speaker A:There's been a little bit of an uptick in reviews lately.
Speaker B:There has been an uptick, unfortunately on Apple you can read the full caption, it gets cut off.
Speaker A:Is that the review?
Speaker A:That's a long ass review.
Speaker B:It is a long review.
Speaker B:We appre.
Speaker B:We appreciate you.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Minus one for the, for the cursing.
Speaker B:But five stars, that's an animal.
Speaker B:You can't.
Speaker B:I don't know, I don't know what gets flagged.
Speaker A:It's like a donkey and a mule makes an ass animal.
Speaker B:The technical term.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B: This from Ginger Rich,: Speaker B:Five stars.
Speaker B:Absolutely incredible.
Speaker B:I'm assuming is what I think it says.
Speaker B:The Higher Standard is hands down one of the best financial literacy podcasts out there.
Speaker B:Chris and Saeed have a way of breaking down complex Financial topics and market changes in a way that is easy to understand, engaging, and most importantly, relatable.
Speaker B:What sets the podcast apart is how they weave in their own personal experiences with, whether it's the challenges, managing stress, managing time between business, family and personal morning routines, and just the regular challenges we all face because we are men of the people.
Speaker A:Yeah, man.
Speaker A:And I would love at some point in time in the future of the show to share more about like, what those daily challenges are like, because I really don't.
Speaker A:I, I mean, the same, the same person who left us that review reached out to me and he sensed in the last show that I was struggling with a little bit of, of things professionally.
Speaker A:And I would say he very astute observation on his part.
Speaker A:I don't really talk about some of the struggles that I'm going through, but certainly there's been a lot of stress on my shoulders in the professional environment and it's been weighing on me personally.
Speaker A:And I didn't think it was coming up in shows, but he, he, he saw it, he called, he called me out on it, we talked offline and, and I was, I was stunned that it was that palpable.
Speaker B:You can tell.
Speaker B:Longtime listener.
Speaker A:Yeah, right.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Just to cap it off, their honest and down to earth approach makes learning about money feel approachable rather than overwhelming.
Speaker B:Every episode is packed with valuable insights, real world examples, and lots of laughs along the way.
Speaker B:It truly feels like you're sitting down with knowledgeable friends who want you to succeed.
Speaker B:If you're looking for a podcast that will not only educate you, but also inspire and entertain, the higher standard is a must.
Speaker B:Listen.
Speaker B:Highly recommend.
Speaker A:So one point of correction.
Speaker A:We are not friends like friends that want you to succeed.
Speaker A:We are friends that want you to succeed.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's the whole point of the show.
Speaker A:We wouldn't do it if there wasn't a value to it.
Speaker A:And I think it gets lost in a lot of times with a lot of people that I talk to, believe it or not, I think they lose sight of this is a charitable contribution of our time.
Speaker A:I mean, yeah, we've monetized before.
Speaker A:We scaled back from monetizing now, but we, we do this a lot because we want it to be that fireside chat with friends.
Speaker A:We want it to feel that way and we want it to teach people things.
Speaker B:And I, I know for a lot of times it may come off as doom and gloom or things that are negative, but that's just a lot of what's going around in the market right now.
Speaker B:And it's not that we're saying that there is doom and gloom around the corner.
Speaker B:If you know things that can negatively impact the economy, it.
Speaker B:It should open up opportunities for you as well and make you better hone in on decisions that you want to make for the upcoming future.
Speaker A:I think everybody knowing about the macroeconomic environment is important for their own daily lives.
Speaker A:Not to mention your job.
Speaker A:I don't care what if you could be in manufacturing, you could be a service provider.
Speaker A:Knowing about the economy and what's going on is such a better approach than just going, you know what?
Speaker A:I don't know.
Speaker A:I really don't follow it.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And I know we're in the space, so it's easy for us to nerd out.
Speaker A:I will say the thing that I think people get most recently get turned off by.
Speaker A:By the show, if I'm being honest, is that they.
Speaker A:They hear a lot of the political talk in the show and they assume that you and I are one thing or the other.
Speaker B:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker A:And I think the disconnect for most people who are listening is that we have never on the show said, I'm Republican, you're Republican, Democrat, whatever.
Speaker A:We've never said any of those things.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:So those are assumptions based on us challenging one another.
Speaker A:And yeah, I probably take the Republican stance and you probably take the Democrat stance more times than not because I take that starting stance.
Speaker A:You just take the.
Speaker A:The opposite approach, I mean.
Speaker B:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker A:But it's been really hard to do the show in the last six, seven months and not talk about politics because so much in the political realm is bleeding over into the economic realm.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:That's actually working against what's going on with what we say the FOMC is trying to accomplish, you know?
Speaker A:You know, Jerome Powell today was watching the press conference going, damn it.
Speaker B:I know.
Speaker B:Come on.
Speaker A:Like, I'm just trying to get, you know, come on, man.
Speaker B:You know what?
Speaker B:This is not helping my cause.
Speaker B:And actually, it's actually, you see that making it a lot more difficult.
Speaker A:The FOMC's commentary on this.
Speaker B:No, I haven't.
Speaker B:I'm.
Speaker B:About today.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:No, I haven't.
Speaker A:Oh, my God.
Speaker A:I.
Speaker A:I almost.
Speaker A:No, I jumped out of my chair, but I almost, like, screamed.
Speaker A:The FOMC's comment was, Tariffs are transitory.
Speaker A:I was like, come on, man.
Speaker A:You can't say the word.
Speaker A:You pick a different adjective.
Speaker B:You got it.
Speaker A:You can't say transitory again.
Speaker A:Last time you used it.
Speaker B:They have a certain number of words that they use that they have in their Arsenal.
Speaker B:And they're like, let's pick this one out.
Speaker A:This situation with tariffs will be transitory.
Speaker A:Dog, the last time you said that, we were saddled with inflation that we are still saddled with today.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:Oh, inflation is transitory.
Speaker A:It feels like it's still here.
Speaker B:Exactly.
Speaker A:I'm just saying we're still talking about it.
Speaker A:It's been a couple years, bro.
Speaker A:Maybe.
Speaker A:Maybe inflation's moved in.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:There's a lot of people that are in the camp that believe that this is still very much a negotiating tactic and that this current administration is willing to go the distance.
Speaker A:And even I'm in this camp, by the way.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:That.
Speaker B:Even so that I know what it'll do to the market.
Speaker B:It'll.
Speaker B:Values will come down once tariffs are implemented, and then when the deal is struck 48 hours later, the market will go right back up again.
Speaker A:So here's what I'm going to say.
Speaker A:I'm going to present some data from a historical perspective, both directly related to Trump himself and also related to similar situation.
Speaker A:Similar.
Speaker A:Similarly situated economic endeavors historically.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:And my goal in doing this is to give everybody a perspective on what may or may not be the outcome based on the only thing we really have, and that's historical data.
Speaker B:Perfect.
Speaker B:And I too, will be presenting historical data.
Speaker B:And my goal in doing so will make you feel a lot more comfortable and positive with what's going.
Speaker B:Going to happen with your money long term.
Speaker A:All right, so to set the stage for those of you who are like, what the hell is going on?
Speaker A:It.
Speaker B:Even get into it, guys.
Speaker A:Yeah, I know.
Speaker A:I mean, just stop with the foreplay.
Speaker A:So look, we had an entirely different show drafted for tonight, and I had a different concept and Saeed had a different concept.
Speaker A:We g.
Speaker A:Talk a little about private equity and some of the business.
Speaker B:Oh, yeah.
Speaker B:Angel investing.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Which would have been a good.
Speaker A:We probably still should do it.
Speaker A:But the, the, the, the tariff talk today was so sensational.
Speaker A:It would have been a disservice to everybody to, to.
Speaker A:To talk about it.
Speaker A:So let's get into the art of the tariff here.
Speaker A:Let's give you a little bit of high level, 30,000 foot.
Speaker A:Let's break down a historical precedent and then we're going to talk about what happened in the markets, which is part of the reason why I respond the way that I did.
Speaker B:By the way, I saw what you did there.
Speaker B:The art of the tariff.
Speaker B:Well done.
Speaker B:You know, you're good at this.
Speaker A:I'm here.
Speaker A:Yeah, I'm here.
Speaker B:This is what you do.
Speaker A:I've been doing this show for a couple years now.
Speaker A:Isn't that wild?
Speaker A:What's been the.
Speaker A:Three, four years?
Speaker A:Four years, right?
Speaker B:I think three and a half, four years, yeah.
Speaker A:Has it been longer than that?
Speaker A:I think it's been longer than that, hasn't it?
Speaker B:I mean, from start to finish, like planning, prepping for the show?
Speaker B:Yeah, I think so, anyway.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:So.
Speaker A:Well, President Donald Trump confirmed his long threatened reciprocal tariffs today, but they were way bigger than anybody anticipated.
Speaker A:It's the latest move in his effort to shift global trade by levying taxes against goods shipped into the United States.
Speaker A:Importers seeking to bring in goods to the United States from other countries will now face tariffs as high as 49% based on how the White House is calculating duties on U.S.
Speaker A:exports, according to NBC News, as well as non monetary trade barriers based on countries doing things like manipulating their currencies or serving as, quote, pollution havens.
Speaker A:That's a lot.
Speaker A:And I'll say there's still a big open question mark as to the tariffs that were proposed today.
Speaker A:I'll get into that a little bit later on.
Speaker A:But there actually might be worse than this.
Speaker B:This.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:So the result was a list of tariffs that are set to impose major duties on billions, if not trillions of dollars in trade.
Speaker A:China, one of the United States's largest trading partners, would be hit with a 34% tariff, which may be inaccurate because everybody got a 20% basis and then a 10% basis on top of that.
Speaker A:So the, from what I saw today, the current interpretation is that China's getting hit with a 54, 4% tariff.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:So it was the, the 20% basis plus the stuff that he announced today, which in this case 34 for China.
Speaker A:So 54 in total.
Speaker A:That has yet to be clarified for the record.
Speaker A:The European Union with 20%, India with 26% and Japan with 24%, amongst others.
Speaker A:The US stock market sharply reversed earlier gains as Trump made his remarks in after hours trading.
Speaker A:The S and P futures fell 1.5% as of this article, which came out, frankly almost immediately afterward.
Speaker A:And it continued to fall off a cliff.
Speaker A:So there are some things that we said on our show about tariffs which we were not planning on talking about again.
Speaker A:We said, oh well, dude, he's talking about tariffs on this country, on that country.
Speaker A:But he's not talking about Vietnam or Bangladesh, everybody.
Speaker B:Yeah, it wasn't.
Speaker B:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker A:He came out and everybody got, got hip checked.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker B:It's like that one.
Speaker B:This is me.
Speaker B:The, the thing that came to mind was when 50 Cent came out with an album and you thought he's going to diss one or two people and then he decided to light the entire rap industry on fire.
Speaker A:I don't know why.
Speaker A:Everything is an example that goes back to 50 Cent with you.
Speaker B:You love him too.
Speaker A:I do.
Speaker A:He's the best troll of the game.
Speaker B:Best.
Speaker A:The best and the most unexpected.
Speaker A:I would have never thought 50 Cent, we get today, trolling people is very bright.
Speaker B:He's very bright.
Speaker A:He's bright in a.
Speaker A:In a very unexpected way.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:But I also feel like he's got psychological problems.
Speaker B:He's bright and uses it for evil.
Speaker A:Evil.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:He's.
Speaker A:He's the evil guy.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:He's not the hero.
Speaker B:Oh, no, no, no, no.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:He's the guy who like revels in being.
Speaker B:Exactly.
Speaker A:So of course the natural logical question is, oh my God, has this ever happened again?
Speaker A:And I did not know the answer to this.
Speaker A:So this is fresh data for me.
Speaker A: g I saw, yeah, it happened in: Speaker A:And I'm like, oh my God.
Speaker A: The Great recession was in: Speaker A:The Great Depression.
Speaker A:Sorry.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:So we had this industrial revolution led Great Depression, the worst recessionary economy in American history.
Speaker A:And this is the last time we did this.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:That's not a good start to a conversation.
Speaker A:You know what I mean?
Speaker A:Like, I'm just saying, like that's.
Speaker A:That's a little uncomfortable.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:It makes me feel not warm and fuzzy.
Speaker B:Said, no, not at all.
Speaker B:I mean it all.
Speaker B:You have to first scale back naturally.
Speaker B:What I think about is why are they doing this?
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:We understand, we've talked about routinely on the show that the U.S.
Speaker B:has a spending problem.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:They spend $6 trillion a year.
Speaker B:They collect four to four and a half trillion dollars a year in tax.
Speaker A:Revenue, which according to last episode, episode 275, our friend from the UAE.
Speaker A:This is all part of the plan to break that spending problem down and hopefully have a bit of a cash surplus at the end of the year.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:So this would ideally, in theory, create more revenue.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:So last year we collected $4.9 trillion in taxes.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Of.
Speaker B:Of which 70 some billion dollars were.
Speaker B:Came in tariffs, tariff revenue.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:They're estimating the administration that these tariffs will create 600 to $700 billion in revenue.
Speaker A:That's.
Speaker B:That's 10x man.
Speaker B:So I mean, he paid a bit.
Speaker B:He went to Cardone seminar.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:Yep.
Speaker B:He's like, I got a 10x this.
Speaker A:He works for Cardone.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I want a Tedx right now.
Speaker B:Moody's came out and they.
Speaker B:They're estimating somewhere closer to 100 to 200 billion.
Speaker A:Numbers are all over the place here.
Speaker B:They're all.
Speaker A:There's no certainty at all.
Speaker B:Exactly.
Speaker B:Because you don't really know if this is just a negotiating tactic or they're really going to stick to this.
Speaker A:Well, so I think most economists that have been polled today, and I listened to about four or five of them, really believe this is the starting point.
Speaker A:But the tariffs you see in the back half of the year won't be the tariffs that are discussed now.
Speaker A:The White House has kind of let on some tips and some kind of suggestions.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Like, hey, we're always here to talk.
Speaker A:You guys want to talk.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:You know that Trump likes to negotiate.
Speaker A: And believe it or not, from: Speaker A:So.
Speaker A:Yeah, I'll get into that a little later.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Because we heard early when Trump came out saying on the campaign and when he first took over office that I'm gonna, we're gonna release these tariffs.
Speaker B:And then there was a predominantly Canada, Mexico's like, oh, if you do that, we're gonna retaliate.
Speaker B:And there was other countries, too, but those are the ones that were really out there in the media.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And then he doubled down, and then that's when the stock market took a dip.
Speaker B:And.
Speaker B: recession, maybe we won't in: Speaker B:It's hard for me to say.
Speaker B:And it kind of gave his hand a little bit to everybody else.
Speaker B:Like, I, I'm okay with us going into a recession right now.
Speaker A:I think some of it is a negotiation tactic, but I think some of it is legitimate.
Speaker A:Like, he's saying, like, look, like, why are we exporting cars to Germany and paying 10%, but they're paying two and a half percent when the cars come here?
Speaker B:Israel has already backed off their retaliation tariffs and said we'll remove it on.
Speaker A:The U.S.
Speaker A:i think there's a number of countries that have already backed off.
Speaker A:So I think Vietnam was one of them.
Speaker B:So if you, if the White House.
Speaker A:Didn'T talk about it today.
Speaker A:Yeah, I think they're gonna come out later on and say that that was a victory.
Speaker B:Yeah, of course.
Speaker A:But they want the tariffs first.
Speaker A:You know, we made a victory, so we're gonna back off them.
Speaker B:Exactly.
Speaker B:And this is all part of the art of the deal with the administration.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And maybe And I think that I.
Speaker B:I'm of the camp, too, that this is all he's willing to go to, whatever lengths he needs to go to in order to get his.
Speaker B:Get his side.
Speaker A:And look, here.
Speaker A:Here's the weird thing about controlling the narrative.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:And after the last episode, I, you know, I was talking to some.
Speaker A:My wife and some people about the guy from the UAE who broke this whole thing down.
Speaker A:I'm like, why doesn't the Trump campaign come out and say it?
Speaker A:I'm like, well, because then it devalues his negotiation stance.
Speaker A:If he clearly explains what his strategy is, then anybody around the world will go, like, all right, we'll just wait him out.
Speaker B:Mm.
Speaker A:You know, like, he's not really gonna do it or, you know, it.
Speaker A:It's.
Speaker A:It's.
Speaker A:I think the.
Speaker A:The crazy fear factor drives a lot of the negotiation, like, the.
Speaker A:The ability to negotiate and a lot of the intention to get it done quicker.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:The urgency.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:And if I'm.
Speaker B:If I'm.
Speaker B:Leaders of other countries, like, you gotta factor in all this at play.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:You know, for.
Speaker B:For somebody like Trump that's in office for him, and what happens to the markets in the economy under his watch will greatly impact him, but he wants everything to continue to.
Speaker B:To grow and succeed.
Speaker B:And maybe that's the thought process of other leaders.
Speaker B:Like, you're not gonna do it.
Speaker B:There's no way you're gonna let this land on your resume.
Speaker A:Well, the last time this happened, it didn't turn out so.
Speaker A:So well.
Speaker A:So let me give you a scenario with which this could turn out to be a bad situation on his resume.
Speaker A:And to be clear, he is risking this strategy or not, intelligent or not, this is a risk.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A: he Smoot Hawley Tariff act of: Speaker A:I had never heard of it.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:Was legislation signed into law by President Herbert Hoover.
Speaker A:Do you know anybody named Herbert these days?
Speaker B:No.
Speaker A:When's the last time you like herbs?
Speaker B:One person in high school, you knew Herbert.
Speaker B:I knew a Herbert one person in high school.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:How Caucasian was that guy?
Speaker B:I want to say Indian.
Speaker A:Really?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:I don't think I've ever met an Indian.
Speaker B:Herbert.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Really?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Thinking back, and I was.
Speaker B:I, too, was shocked at the time.
Speaker A:Huh.
Speaker A:There's got to be a good backstory of that name.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Significantly raising tariffs over.
Speaker A:On over 2,20,000 imported goods with the intention of protecting American jobs and industries.
Speaker A:Keyword intention of protecting American jobs and industries from foreign competition during the onset of the Great Depression.
Speaker A: So: Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A: ,: Speaker A: And here you are in: Speaker A:So, I mean, three or four months later, we're rolling this out.
Speaker A:And the tariff is supposed to help the nation, which is struggling, but we are in a declared recession at that point.
Speaker B:Yeah, we're in a declared.
Speaker B:Exactly.
Speaker B:We're in a declared recession.
Speaker B:And you can get an entire country behind it.
Speaker A:Well, instead of stabilizing the economy, however, these tariffs triggered retaliatory tariffs from other nations, severely restricting international trade.
Speaker A:So far, we're on track.
Speaker A:This contributed to a global economic downturn by cutting U.S.
Speaker A:exports and imports dramatically by more than half, exasperating the economic hardships of the Depression and deepening unemployment.
Speaker A:Now, if you're politically motivated to defend somebody or not, you could poke holes in this.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:This is just.
Speaker A:This is just the facts of what happened in this incident instance, you could say that the US Is a bigger trade partner, it's a more international economy today.
Speaker A:There's lots of reasons why today is different.
Speaker A:I'm not arguing that that's not true.
Speaker A: he Smith Hawley Tariff act of: Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And we were already in a declared recession.
Speaker B:Now, just to recap for everybody, the definition of a recession, even though the White House, the previous administration, opted to change it, is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
Speaker B:The Atlanta Fed is, I believe, has updated their figure to, I think it was previously.
Speaker B:Last week or two weeks ago, it was at Q1 of this year was at negative 2.5% GDP.
Speaker B:For the.
Speaker B:For Q1, they've updated it to now negative 3.7% negative GDP growth.
Speaker A:Yikes.
Speaker B:So you're almost.
Speaker B:You're almost.
Speaker B:You're guaranteed Q1 negative GDP growth already.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:And throughout the last six recessions, there's an average lag time of approximately seven months from when recession initially took place to when the National Bureau of Economic Research came out and declared there was a recession.
Speaker B:Seven months.
Speaker A:I'm not entirely sure anybody's employed there.
Speaker A:Matter of fact, Trump might even let everybody off.
Speaker B:Exactly.
Speaker A:We wouldn't know.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:So if that is the case, if the average time is seven months, you're looking at end of the year.
Speaker B:End of the year, before they even let you know that we're in a recession.
Speaker A:We've been doing the show for years.
Speaker A:Have you ever heard anybody from the National Bureau of Economic Research say anything.
Speaker B:I'm afraid, like, they're afraid to come out at this point and say, never heard anybody, no journalist can get a hold of anybody.
Speaker A:Not a single quote from anybody over there.
Speaker B:Yeah, what's going on?
Speaker B:What do you, what are your thoughts?
Speaker A:I think the Biden administration was like, look, they're going to declare a recession, fire them all and do it quietly.
Speaker A:Yeah, I haven't heard a word from that bureau ever.
Speaker B:You know what, you know, how so in NBA player contracts, they're required to do media coverage.
Speaker B:So, like, that's why they're, they're forced.
Speaker B:And if they don't do it, they get fined.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:If you work for a government agency, you should have to do media coverage.
Speaker B:You have to really have to do a monthly or quarterly, like post game.
Speaker A:Press conference, come out like Jimmy Butler doing haircuts.
Speaker B:You got to like, it should be part of the deal.
Speaker B:Like, like if you're going to get.
Speaker A:A pension, Rome pal, to come out in goth emo painting nails.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:You know, it should be part of the deal.
Speaker B:You're going to get a pension.
Speaker B:You got to do this.
Speaker B:Somebody, somebody from, from the bureau has to come out and do this.
Speaker A:Keep in mind too, some of those jobs don't pay a whole hell of a lot.
Speaker A:So maybe they're not incentivized properly for a press conference.
Speaker A:But.
Speaker A: the Smut Holly Tariff act of: Speaker A:So to give a little bit of comparison and be a little bit fair here, today's tariff actions by President Trump echo certain elements of the Smith Hawley Act.
Speaker A:Specifically, the intent to protect domestic industries through significantly increased tariffs on imports justified by claims of unfair trade practices and currency manipulation by other countries.
Speaker A:However, unlike Smut, I like saying the name Smut.
Speaker A:Unlike Smith Hawley, which broadly increased tariffs on virtually all imports, Trump's tariffs include targeted reciprocal measures against individual countries based on their specific trade relationships and actions, rather than a blanket tariff increase.
Speaker A:So instead of saying everybody's getting taxed, he said, hey, China guy, buddy, pal, I don't like the way you've been trading with us.
Speaker A:We're going to tax you more.
Speaker A:And notably absent from the list of really heavy tariffs, Canada and Mexico are two closest trade partners and big partners.
Speaker A:Yeah, we'll get into that in a little bit later to give you some idea of where they fall on this list.
Speaker A:So this is a little bit different in the implementation.
Speaker A:Could that be good?
Speaker A:Could that be bad?
Speaker A:I don't know.
Speaker A: protectionist rational out of: Speaker A:1930.
Speaker A:We're trying to protect people now.
Speaker A:It's a more geopolitical event.
Speaker A:There's all these other.
Speaker A: here than what it was in the: Speaker A:They're doing it for very different reasons.
Speaker B:Yeah, absolutely.
Speaker B:I mean, look, it's, it's terrible timing when we went through this, this period of time where, you know, interest rates were artificially low for as long as they were.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And now the US had to refi.
Speaker B:Refinance a bunch of their debt.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:And guess what?
Speaker B:That short term debt that they refinanced is now coming due and interest payments are about to get a lot more expensive.
Speaker B:Yeah, right.
Speaker B:So.
Speaker B:And the only way to get out of that hole is to borrow even more money, which devalues the dollar even more.
Speaker A:And there's a lot of people who are manipulating that, I.
Speaker A:E.
Speaker A:China to weaken the US Currency and then further enrich themselves in that process.
Speaker A:Tariffs are really like a tax.
Speaker A:They're really like a tax on the American people.
Speaker A:And, and they're really treated for economic models by all these economists as an additional tax.
Speaker A:And that's why you're seeing them go, oh my God, the consumer is just going to be roasted here.
Speaker B:Oh.
Speaker B:And I mean, I think it was like a year ago, right?
Speaker B:S P and Fitch downgraded U.S.
Speaker B:credit rating.
Speaker A:That's right.
Speaker B:And now conversations are coming up where Moody's is going to do it as well.
Speaker B:So this is no secret to anybody.
Speaker B:And absolutely, I think that other countries are definitely going to use it to their advantage.
Speaker B:Why wouldn't they?
Speaker A:So let's be clear here.
Speaker A:Even though there's some idiosyncratic differences between Trump and Smoot Hawley, the exact same risks are still here.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:You're talking about potentially harming global trade flows and maybe indefinitely.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:You're talking about consumer pricing being a big problem here.
Speaker A:Consumer discretionary spending was already heading down and you've got people spending way more on credit cards and the highest non household debt you've ever had in history.
Speaker A:This is going to add to it.
Speaker A:And to give you an idea, how soon if a car comes off of a boat?
Speaker A:Tomorrow.
Speaker A:Tariff supply tomorrow.
Speaker B:That quick?
Speaker A:April 3rd.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:It's implemented that quickly.
Speaker A:That quickly.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:And there's going to be ramifications to the auto industry which we're going to cover here a little bit later.
Speaker A:So of course the natural question is, is, well, how did your friends in stock market take it?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:People managing portfolio managers.
Speaker A:Yeah, they, they did not take it well.
Speaker A:So for those of you who don't follow the stock market aggressively, I'll break this down for you.
Speaker A:Stock market has a futures market.
Speaker A:It's exactly what it sounds like.
Speaker A:It's what the thing's gonna happen tomorrow, basically.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:And if that takes a jump off a cliff, it usually means people think the market's gonna have a very, very bad opening the next day.
Speaker B:Yes.
Speaker A:So they're trading off in after hours trading in the futures market because they're anticipating a bad market response the next day.
Speaker A:Well, according to CNN Business, stock futures plunge as investors digest Trump's tariffs.
Speaker A:He did try to frame it in, in a national Independence Day kind of vibe, which I'll explain again a little bit later from now.
Speaker A:U.S.
Speaker A:stocks plunged in after hours trading Wednesday as investors digested President Donald Trump's decision to impose sweeping tariffs that could escalate a growing trade war and upend the global economy.
Speaker A:Dow futures plummeted more than 100.
Speaker A:I'm sorry, 1,100 points or 2.7%.
Speaker A:Now, give you an idea.
Speaker A:S and p futures sank 3.9%.
Speaker A:Futures tied to the Nasdaq 100 plunged 4.7%.
Speaker A:So the first article came out early and the S and p was down 1.5%.
Speaker A:Okay, that was by, that was at 3:34pm Geez.
Speaker A:Okay, by the time this came out at 7:01pm Eastern, which is only 4:00 now, Pacific.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So maybe 30 minutes later, S&P futures were down 3.9%.
Speaker B:Oh boy.
Speaker A:So it was down quick and fast.
Speaker A:U.S.
Speaker A:stocks closed higher Wednesday afternoon ahead of Trump's announcement of tariffs.
Speaker A:So the market was actually doing kind of well today, which was surprising to me, frankly, because we knew this was going to happen at the end of the close of the market today.
Speaker A:But a sell off began as he unveiled his plan, holding up a chart that depicted how rates would increase depending on the country.
Speaker A:So I think everybody in America who was in the market, these portfolio managers, traders, they had thought like we had thought on the last show we did about tariffs where, okay, there's going to be some pretty harsh tariffs on China.
Speaker A:There's going to be some pretty harsh tariffs on this country.
Speaker A:That country.
Speaker A:I don't Think people realize that he was going to go into the other countries and that it was going to be so disproportionate to other countries.
Speaker A:It was, it completely caught them off guard.
Speaker A:The last thing you ever want to do with people in the stock market investing money is catch them off guard.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Create uncertainty.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:He intentionally omitted telegraphing how severe and how widespread tariffs were going to be.
Speaker B:Which is the complete opposite of what Jerome Powell has been doing this entire time is easing everything.
Speaker B:Like, look guys, we are going to be holding higher for longer.
Speaker B:And he, well, he's, he's telegraphing before the next meeting.
Speaker B:You can, you can see basically from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Bloomberg World interest rate probability, you already know what's going to happen at the next meeting.
Speaker B:So there isn't a huge shock wave that's sent throughout the economy.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:During the last 11 recessions.
Speaker B:So if you're in the camp that believes that we are currently sitting in a recession or at the beginning of a recession, even though talk to any small business owner, they'll tell you we've been in a recession for a very long time.
Speaker A:Yep.
Speaker B:Stocks tend to peak eight months prior to a recession and then they decline approximately 30%.
Speaker B:That would mean the stocks peaked in February and fall right in line with our end of the year.
Speaker A:Could be.
Speaker A:Yeah, could be.
Speaker A:I mean, there's also a good camp which says the stock market would otherwise have rallied right now.
Speaker A:And we started to see that yesterday and today the market was rallying in the beginning.
Speaker A:And I would say that would probably be more normal course of business is that you have a stock market rally and then you have a market crash of some type for a bit of a correction.
Speaker A:But I think this may have kind of usurped that a little bit and it caught everybody off guard.
Speaker A:I mean, it was not what anybody expected.
Speaker A:And because of that, I think that in some ways I could see a pitch that this may have brought on a recession quicker than it otherwise would have come up.
Speaker A:But at the same time, it may have made it less deep ultimately because it happened quicker.
Speaker A:The market wasn't higher, didn't rally up before it went back down.
Speaker A:So I mean, I could argue both sides of good or bad or necessary or not necessary.
Speaker A:It's an interesting.
Speaker A:No, I don't think any president in history has ever been this cavalier in this, I guess close to the vest with what they were planning.
Speaker A:And it's an interesting take.
Speaker A:And I heard a conspiracy theory today.
Speaker A:If you want to get a tinfoil.
Speaker B:Of hats on, let's put them on.
Speaker A:All right.
Speaker A:Mine's green.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:I'm wearing a beanie.
Speaker A:It's green for everybody who's not watching the video.
Speaker A:Somebody said on.
Speaker A:On CNBC that, you know, hey, what do you think this means for Jerome Powell?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And I thought, oh, man.
Speaker A:Like, if you're Jerome, if you're J.
Speaker A:Pal, you're probably going, okay, I'm doing my job.
Speaker A:I'm working hard.
Speaker A:Is this guy trying to come for me?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:You have to think that, right?
Speaker B:It's part of it.
Speaker B:There's no love lost between the two.
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:They don't like each other.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:They're not fans.
Speaker A:And Trump doesn't want to fire him.
Speaker A:And Jerome doesn't want to quit.
Speaker B:He can't quit because he's still.
Speaker B:You can't walk away from a job that is not finished.
Speaker B:Job's not finished.
Speaker B:Shout out, Kobe.
Speaker A:So there's a bit of this, like, healthy consternation between the two of them.
Speaker A:And the question is, is Trump gonna use the market response to this from a data perspective to say, hey, Jerome, you're not doing your job.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah, it's messed up.
Speaker A:But you can see how that could happen.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:See, what had happened was, is you let inflation get out of control.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:You didn't go fast enough.
Speaker A:So I'm saying, right, you don't have to not work.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:You just can't work here.
Speaker B:Well, he can't.
Speaker A:He.
Speaker A:He.
Speaker B:He himself does.
Speaker B:Does not have the power to fire Jerome Powell.
Speaker A:He doesn't have the power to do a lot of things that he's been doing.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker A:I would love for him to come out and be like.
Speaker B:But he does.
Speaker B:But we're not going to ignore the influence that he has.
Speaker A:Hey, Jerome, it's your friend Donald.
Speaker A:You can call me DT and.
Speaker B:Or dj.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Yeah, no, DT And I just want to let you know that I can't fire you, and I have no intention of doing that.
Speaker B:Thanks.
Speaker B:Thank.
Speaker B:Thanks, dt.
Speaker B:Because I was really worried that that's what you were trying to.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:You know, and I don't want you to feel like that that's going to happen.
Speaker B:Okay, thank you.
Speaker B:Thank you.
Speaker A:But I do want to let you know that we are really working to be efficient with our government spending, and.
Speaker B:I, I, I've seen.
Speaker B:I've seen the, the tariffs that you guys have put in place, and I, I believe those to be transitory.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And last time you used that word, I remember that very vividly.
Speaker A:You said inflation was transitory.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:I thought it was.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I thought that was a supply chain issue.
Speaker A:I feel like it's back.
Speaker A:Okay, so here's what I'm gonna do.
Speaker B:Okay, I'm listening.
Speaker A:Jerome, I'm going to base your compensation on performance.
Speaker A:Okay?
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:And if inflation's going up, Your salary is 25% of what it is today.
Speaker B:Oh, gosh.
Speaker A:All right.
Speaker A:If it's going down, Your salary is 100% of what it is.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's going down.
Speaker A:That's what I like to call proper motivation, Jerome.
Speaker B:I need you to finesse the numbers.
Speaker B:Is that what you're saying?
Speaker A:No, no, no.
Speaker A:What I'm going to do is I'm going to put you their website calling what we're paying Jerome today.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Dot com.
Speaker A:And everybody around the world can test your performance based on your salary.
Speaker B:Right, exactly.
Speaker A:Which will be the only thing on the page.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:So, you know, get that under control.
Speaker B:You know.
Speaker B:You know.
Speaker B:You know what DT's thinking, too, right?
Speaker B:He's look.
Speaker B:He's thinking it.
Speaker B:Looking at Jerome like, look, I saw what the last administration did and how they finessed the numbers and asked to average the gross domestic income.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:They.
Speaker A:They.
Speaker B:They got creative.
Speaker B:Jerome, I need you to find a way to get creative with these inflation numbers and showcase 2%.
Speaker B:That's what I need you to do.
Speaker A:Can we.
Speaker A:Can we be honest about something?
Speaker A:Yeah, if you're Jerome Powell and the rest of the fomc.
Speaker B:Come on, y'all.
Speaker A:Y'all didn't say.
Speaker A:Wait, wait, wait.
Speaker A:Hold on.
Speaker A:Wait, wait, wait.
Speaker A:The definition of recession is what now?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Not a single person came out and said, listen, as far as I understand, two successive quarters of negative GDP growth is the definition of a recession.
Speaker A:This whole two success of quarters of negative GDI growth, gross domestic income growth, when you're giving out stimmies.
Speaker A:That just sounds ridiculous.
Speaker B:And I got a bone to pick with Jerome.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:For a long time, the FOMC was happy with inflation being around 2 to 3%.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:They were all cool with that.
Speaker B:Jerome decided to come out and say, it's 2%.
Speaker B:We're going to get to our goal of 2%.
Speaker B:I don't care if it's 2.8%.
Speaker B:I needed to see.
Speaker B:I needed to say 2%.
Speaker B:I mean, come on, bro.
Speaker B:What are you doing?
Speaker A:Yeah, right?
Speaker B:And we all know at the end of the day, even if it did get down to 2%, it's not 2%.
Speaker B:All right, so who are you really fooling here?
Speaker A:This is like me going on to social media.
Speaker A:Saying, look, side, I need to admit to you that I have a problem.
Speaker B:Which problem?
Speaker A:I, I, I've been struggling with something.
Speaker A:I want to admit to you I have been, I've been balling out of control and it's legitimately out of control, Saeed.
Speaker A:I can't help but ball.
Speaker B:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker B:What are you saying?
Speaker B:Wait, I'm sorry, I'm confused.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's the world we live in these days.
Speaker A:And it's just weird.
Speaker A:So you might be thinking, hey guys, if this wasn't the first time it happened historically, what does this all mean for the S and P and the stock market?
Speaker A:Where's my money going to go?
Speaker B:Yeah, what's going to happen to my money, Chris?
Speaker B:I need to know what's going to happen with my money.
Speaker A:Well, we took a little historic look here.
Speaker A:Historically, US financial markets have responded negatively, often sharply, like we saw in the futures market.
Speaker A:So expect tomorrow morning's open by the time you hear this.
Speaker A:Last week's open to be a little grim.
Speaker A:Two announcements of tariff increases, largely due to investor concerns over economic uncertainty.
Speaker A:You will find anytime you hear the words uncertainty and economic tied together in business, the markets don't react well to it.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:People don't like, not, they don't like the idea of not knowing where the money's gonna go and what the probabilities are.
Speaker A:When you throw a rogue variable like this in, people get very uncomfortable disruptions in global supply chains and potential retaliatory actions from trade partners.
Speaker A:Those are scary things.
Speaker A: example occurred in March of: Speaker A:That's the last time this happened.
Speaker A: Who was president in March: Speaker A:Said Barack.
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:Donald Trump.
Speaker B:DJ DT.
Speaker A:God.
Speaker B:Oh, you're right.
Speaker B:My bad.
Speaker B:That's.
Speaker B:Yeah, I messed up.
Speaker B:Sorry.
Speaker A:We are interviewing for a new co host in the show.
Speaker A:If you'd like to interview, send your email directly to Saeed Omar.
Speaker B:Right, Right.
Speaker B:My bad.
Speaker B:I was.
Speaker B:Oh, I gave you the, I gave.
Speaker A:You the segment I should have known for the show.
Speaker B:I should have known.
Speaker A:I told you I was gonna say.
Speaker B:I should have known that group chats were on fire back then.
Speaker A:You don't listen to me.
Speaker A:That's the problem.
Speaker B:That was, that was when he hit the fade away in Puerto Rico.
Speaker B:That's what he did.
Speaker A:Why are we there right now?
Speaker B:But that's.
Speaker B:I should have remembered is what I'm saying.
Speaker A:No.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Damn it.
Speaker A:Okay, a notable.
Speaker A:I can't even.
Speaker B:Are we gonna get hate comments again?
Speaker A:No, it just.
Speaker A: Barack Obama: Speaker B:Oh, well, I'm not, I'M sorry, I just, I just took a shot of the dark.
Speaker A:Obama, Trump, Biden.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, man, I forgot what year we are in general.
Speaker A:Four years.
Speaker B:Four years.
Speaker A:Four years.
Speaker B:Got it.
Speaker B:You act like I didn't know.
Speaker A: ble example occurred in March: Speaker A:25% on steel and 10% on aluminum imports.
Speaker A:So this is not his first go around with tariffs as a president.
Speaker A:Immediately following the announcement, the US stock market experienced volatility and declines.
Speaker A: ,: Speaker A:And the S&P dropped 36 points, or 1.3%.
Speaker A:So you had to know when that limited scope of tariffs on just these two products, steel and aluminum.
Speaker B:Yeah, he knows how the market's going to react.
Speaker A:He knew the market was going to have a big reaction at the close.
Speaker B:He's not worried about it because he knows he's going to make it up the second a deal is struck.
Speaker B:Well, the second deals are struck and tariffs are removed and some are still left in place because he has to make it look like it was all done in good faith.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Then the market will react positively again.
Speaker A:I mean, he doesn't make it look like it's done in good faith if he legitimately is doing it in good faith.
Speaker B:I mean, if you're doing it just as a negotiating tactic.
Speaker A:That's good faith, brother.
Speaker A:What?
Speaker A:It's good faith for your people.
Speaker B:No, if you're doing it as a negotiating tactic and you're putting all this undue stress and all this uncertainty into the market, that's not good faith.
Speaker A:Against my better judgment, I'm gonna appeal to your inner dad, okay?
Speaker B:Oh.
Speaker A:Sometimes you ask your kids to do hard things which challenge them and put them through tough times because you in good faith believe it'll build character and help them grow.
Speaker B:No, no, that's not what's happening.
Speaker A:That's what's happening here, boy.
Speaker B:No, no, no, no.
Speaker B:You're lying to them.
Speaker A:Just dropped your own dad skills back on.
Speaker A:You like that, do you?
Speaker B:No, it'd be, what is the equivalent of me telling my kids, hey, rough times are ahead, even though rough.
Speaker B:I know rough times are ahead and I'm creating all this uncertainty and all this undue stress onto them.
Speaker B:That's the equivalent.
Speaker B:And that is not practicing in good faith.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:Well.
Speaker A:While initial markets reactions were overwhelmingly negative, driven by fears of a full blown trade war, subsequent market behavior showed A mixed recovery pattern.
Speaker A: This is in: Speaker A:In the weeks following the tariffs enactment, equities regained ground as investors absorbed the details, betting that broader economic growth and corporate earnings strength might offset trade disruptions.
Speaker A:I would say that was a very narrow scope then versus what we're seeing now.
Speaker A:I don't think you get that luxury today.
Speaker A:I don't think you can see that kind of recovery be very quickly undertaken unless you have some countries breakdown.
Speaker A:So you saw pretty much a rebound in the weeks following.
Speaker A:You saw equities regain ground in the investors and the broader economic growth and the corporate earnings strength might have offset some of these disruptions.
Speaker A:And things started to be a little positive and the rhetoric started to pick up.
Speaker A: Trump administration back in: Speaker A:This is on a much broader scale.
Speaker A: er stage, just like it did in: Speaker A:But on a bigger stage, markets typically stabilize only once.
Speaker A:There is a clear guidance on the tariffs, long term impacts, trade partner responses and policy clarity from the government.
Speaker A:This context is crucial for listeners seeking to navigate current financial market dynamics in response to today's broad based reciprocal tariffs.
Speaker B:Okay, see so I got.
Speaker A:Every once in a while I prepare for a show.
Speaker B:So.
Speaker B:And every once in a while I also prepare for a show.
Speaker A:Oh, here we go.
Speaker B:Okay, so some, a little, a little historical data for the listeners as well.
Speaker B:This is where the uncertainty comes into play for a lot of people.
Speaker A:Wee bit of historical data.
Speaker B:A little, wee bit.
Speaker B:So good.
Speaker B:It's not lost on us.
Speaker B:So before you hit us up in the DMs or get in the comments that a recession isn't always correlated to a positive or negative stock market.
Speaker B:Okay, yeah.
Speaker A:There's as housing declines as market, stock market.
Speaker B:It could be, it could be anything.
Speaker B:When you look back at the last 30 recessions.
Speaker B:Okay, 30, good sample size.
Speaker B:1869 until now.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B: until: Speaker B:Don't count the pandemic.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:There have been 16 out of the 30 that had positive market returns.
Speaker A:Yeah, I believe that.
Speaker B:Okay, yeah.
Speaker B:And now that also does not.
Speaker B:And I think the return on average for those 16 was 9.8%.
Speaker A:Why give me that sassy face.
Speaker B:No, that's.
Speaker B:I mean that, that falls right in line with the average of the, your stock market return of 8 to 10%.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's right.
Speaker B:Okay, that.
Speaker B:Now that does not mean during that time there wasn't a drawdown to get to that 9.8%.
Speaker A:Yeah, look, people will adapt that when the market.
Speaker A:So this would.
Speaker A:Normally what happens, you're seeing it today in this.
Speaker A:But normally what happens is people will freak out.
Speaker A:Volatility comes into play.
Speaker A:Everybody, you know, holds their chips and they wait.
Speaker A:And I think that they just wait this outline.
Speaker A:So volatility starts dropping prices down or they feel like they're at a low point and they start to reinvest and drive prices back up.
Speaker A:It's not as scary as people make it to be.
Speaker B:The typical drawdown during that time was minus 29%.
Speaker A:Yeah, I get it.
Speaker B:Before it would rebound and ultimately create an average of just shy of 10%.
Speaker B:So that just, that messaging falls right in line with everything that we've always said on the show.
Speaker B:Yeah, right.
Speaker A:Keep investing.
Speaker A:Dollar cost, average.
Speaker B:Dollar, dollar cost, average.
Speaker B:Keep investing.
Speaker B:If anything, if you're thinking this is all doom and gloom again, right?
Speaker B:No, no, no, no, no.
Speaker B:This is, if anything, this shows that there's an opportunity here, right.
Speaker B:To, to keep investing.
Speaker B:If, if there's anything that I think the listeners should be focusing on for as much as they can control.
Speaker B:I know a lot of this is out of their control is try your absolute best to try to take on more tasks at work, stay employed for as long as you can, hopefully and continue to do and invest and buy like you have been, because opportunity is there.
Speaker A:Look, some businesses aren't as impacted as other businesses by the recession.
Speaker A:So just because we're in a recession or that might be looming or something like that happens.
Speaker B:Exactly.
Speaker A:Doesn't necessarily mean that you're going to be impacted the same way as your neighbor.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:And yeah, unemployment will go up.
Speaker A:That doesn't exactly mean that you're going to be unemployed either.
Speaker A:So recessions can be opportunities for a lot of people to make some good money.
Speaker A:That's what happened after the Great Recession, the great financial crisis with housing and investments there.
Speaker A:So, you know, I would say there is a, certainly a positive spin to be made here.
Speaker A:If you can navigate the strenuous nature of a short term pain of the economy.
Speaker B:And just to put a nice little bow on all of it right after the end of a recession in just one year, 85% of the cases you're in the green.
Speaker A:That's, that's a good, that's a good.
Speaker B:Number in just one year.
Speaker A:Look at you being positive after three years, that hurt for you.
Speaker B:Listen to this.
Speaker B:After three years, after a recession is declared, over a hundred percent of the cases, you're back in the green.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:So it's all about staying in long term.
Speaker B:If anything, when you're talking investing, you're thinking long term.
Speaker B:You're talking decade over decade over decades.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:You wait it out.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I think the people that probably the most impacted are those who have a lot of exposure to one company that may be heavily impacted by a recession.
Speaker B:The concentration is too high.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:You're in the s and P500.
Speaker A:You should be okay.
Speaker B:No different than if you're running any business.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:If you have, you know, one client that, that's making up the bulk of your business and then they ultimately find somebody else that does what you do for cheaper.
Speaker B:Well, guess what?
Speaker B:You had too high of a concentration.
Speaker A:So after all the fanfare on, on CNBC was going off.
Speaker A:And for those of you who know my office, I watch CNBC pretty much all day long.
Speaker A:It's on the.
Speaker A:I usually watch it for the ticker, but you know, every once in a while I'll see like the red breaking news banner come up.
Speaker A:One of my favorite things to do is get some popcorn and get into the comments section on social media, live.
Speaker B:In the comment section.
Speaker A:And I knew when the tariff stuff came out and it was so much bigger than people thought, like it was going to be weird just to read comments.
Speaker A:So I went to Yahoo.
Speaker A:Finance.
Speaker B:Oh, the Finance Bros.
Speaker B:They're the best.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Trump announces higher reciprocal tariff rates for worst offenders.
Speaker A:Annual rates on top of baseline.
Speaker A:10% tariffs for select countries.
Speaker A:You ready?
Speaker A:So I'm going to go over the top couple.
Speaker A:Not all of them.
Speaker A:China.
Speaker A:White House estimated tariff rate against the United States was 67%.
Speaker A:So we hit them with 34% plus at least 10%.
Speaker A:So they're at least 44.
Speaker A:It might actually be closer to 54.
Speaker A:European Union tax against the U.S.
Speaker A:39%.
Speaker A:They got hit with 20%, which 10% plus that winds up being 30%.
Speaker A:About on par.
Speaker A:Vietnam has a 90% rate against the United States.
Speaker A:They got hit with a 46% reciprocal tariff.
Speaker A:And again 10% plus that 56%, that's a big number.
Speaker A:Taiwan 64% against the U.S.
Speaker A:got 32%.
Speaker A:Japan 46% against the U.S.
Speaker A:got 24%.
Speaker A:India 52%.
Speaker A:They got 26%.
Speaker A:South Korea 50%.
Speaker A:U.S.
Speaker A:gave them 25%.
Speaker A:Thailand, 72%.
Speaker A:U.S.
Speaker A:gave them 36%.
Speaker A:Switzerland, 61% to the U.S.
Speaker A:we gave them 31%.
Speaker A:Indonesia, 64%.
Speaker A:We gave them 32%, by the way.
Speaker A:Cambodia, the biggest offender here, 97% biggest offender.
Speaker A:What the hell, man?
Speaker A:What do you.
Speaker A:I mean, you've been in Cambodia.
Speaker A:Where's all that money going?
Speaker B:Ain't nothing there y'all doing over there.
Speaker A:Angor Wat and some rice patties is about it, man.
Speaker A:Yeah, it was, it was wild.
Speaker A:So, of course I read the, you know, I read the caption and the caption was everything you thought it was going to be and more.
Speaker A:The White House unveiled a two step tariff approach as Donald Trump's long awaited Libert.
Speaker A:Liberation Day.
Speaker A:He literally called it Liberation Day.
Speaker A:Liberation Day.
Speaker A:Plans were finally released during a Rose Garden event at the White House.
Speaker A:The President will impose a bait baseline tariff rate of 10% in all countries with an additional tariff to be added on top of this for some of what the administration considers to be the worst offenders.
Speaker A:And I will say it is disproportionate.
Speaker A:The President said that those additional rates were calculated both based on tariffs, but also non tariff barriers that Trump has long bemoaned.
Speaker A:Shout out for the vocabulary.
Speaker A:Trump held up a chart at the event, which was really cute, really visually stunning with the additional rates he has planned.
Speaker A:And atop the list was China, which is set to receive a 34% tariff in a list that spanned dozens of countries.
Speaker A:The European Union was second in the list and in line for 20% duties.
Speaker A:To the many clamoring for protection, Trump said, I say terminate your own tariffs and drop your barriers.
Speaker A:You can say that in so many situations in life.
Speaker B:Yeah, right.
Speaker A:Trump said the tariff calculations were actually only half of the cheating his team found.
Speaker A:Saying he could have gone higher, he called his approach kind reciprocal.
Speaker B:Kind reciprocal.
Speaker B:So why, why the administration feels so comfortable in imposing these tariffs and if it, if it sticks, it sticks is because they know the US Consumer makes up so much of the global economy.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:That all these countries are reliant on all of us.
Speaker A:So I would like to point out Canada and Mexico, our biggest trade partners, aren't here.
Speaker A:But there is a name missing.
Speaker A:There is a name oddly void.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:Reciprocal tariffs.
Speaker A:You could argue they're not a big trade partner and they're somewhat isolated, but let's just, let's just get the.
Speaker A:Let's just get it out of the way.
Speaker B:All right?
Speaker A:There is a lack of Russian intelligence.
Speaker B:I was going to say Vladimir's name's not on the list.
Speaker A:There is no Putin for the Putin.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:So there is no Russia.
Speaker A:Let's go to the comments section, shall we?
Speaker B:Let's do it.
Speaker A:All right.
Speaker A:No Russia.
Speaker A:11 replies.
Speaker A:Do tell.
Speaker A:He ain't doing that to his bestie.
Speaker B:Can't be doing it.
Speaker A:They are sanctioned already.
Speaker A:Which is true.
Speaker A:Facts spelled F A X.
Speaker B:All facts.
Speaker B:No cap.
Speaker A:They are sanctioned.
Speaker A:No US Company should be doing business with them.
Speaker A:So that's the truth.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:That's why you're under sanctions.
Speaker A:You shouldn't have it.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:You do realize Russian economy is almost always is completely independent from the west due to years of sanctions and new Trump.
Speaker A:And now Trump's creating an even bigger second market.
Speaker A:So there's a reason for it.
Speaker A:But anyway, it's worthwhile to see the people did get it.
Speaker A:So these countries had tariffs on us and we simply responded with our own tariffs.
Speaker A:And people are mad about that.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So it's like, oh, so now we're just being fair.
Speaker A:This is my favorite comment.
Speaker A:Russia spelled R U Z I A.
Speaker A:Yeah, why not?
Speaker A:So we're screwing them half as bad as they're screwing us.
Speaker A:Still doesn't make sense.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Worst economic decision ever.
Speaker A:Oh, there's nine replies to this one.
Speaker A:Shall we?
Speaker B:Oh, let's do it.
Speaker A:Tds.
Speaker A:What does that mean?
Speaker B:Tds.
Speaker A:You look that up.
Speaker B:I'll look that up.
Speaker A:Yeah, simmer down, Alexander.
Speaker A:It's.
Speaker A:It's not your money.
Speaker A:Might be Alexander response.
Speaker A:Low iq.
Speaker A:There you go, boys.
Speaker A:Keep.
Speaker A:Keep it above board while you're fighting the comments.
Speaker A:Respond.
Speaker A:It really is somebody.
Speaker A:Oh, Alexander gets.
Speaker A:Don't worry, Alex.
Speaker A:MAGA is dumber than dumb.
Speaker A:Better not knock on my door when they need something.
Speaker A:I don't feel like an entire party is going to knock on your door when they need something.
Speaker A:Seems like a strange response.
Speaker A:There's a Spanish version here.
Speaker A:It's all good.
Speaker A:Lfg.
Speaker A:Let's.
Speaker A:Let's freaking go.
Speaker A:This is fair Global trade war.
Speaker A:Don't check your portfolios.
Speaker B:Tax deducted at source.
Speaker B:A tax collected at the time income is earned.
Speaker B:Commonly seen in India and some other countries.
Speaker A:Oh, here's the nicest comment in the comments section.
Speaker A:I love this one.
Speaker A:So sweet.
Speaker A:It's not how much we have.
Speaker B:Oh, God.
Speaker A:But how much we enjoy that makes happiness.
Speaker B:Aw.
Speaker A:I hope you get lighter tarot.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Hashtag bless.
Speaker A:Bless.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Where can I buy your course?
Speaker A:So, this from the New York Times.
Speaker A:Reciprocal tariffs.
Speaker A:See which countries have the highest rates.
Speaker A:And of course, Big Dog had to Go down the rabbit hole once again.
Speaker A:President Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs on Wednesday afternoon.
Speaker A:Sweeping, sweeping tariffs.
Speaker A:Now announcing a minimum of 10% tariff on all trading partners, as well as so called reciprocal actions on dozens of other countries, including some of America's biggest trading partners.
Speaker A:In announcing the new tariffs, his most expansive to date, Mr.
Speaker A:Trump said.
Speaker A:That's President Trump to you.
Speaker B:Yeah, President, come on.
Speaker A:Said that the global tariffs would help correct decades of unfair relationships and stop other countries from rigging and ripping off the United States.
Speaker B:Put some respect on his name.
Speaker A:Put some respect on my name.
Speaker A:China, for example, will see a tariff rate rise to at least 34%, which includes a previous blanket import tax imposed on the country's goods.
Speaker A:Early this year, Vietnam's imports will be taxed at nearly 50%.
Speaker A:So this is the question mark that everybody had.
Speaker A:Nobody really answered.
Speaker A:Did the list that he show on that chart include the 10% that he increased on everybody or was that that plus the 10%?
Speaker A:So that's still kind of an assumption that we have out there in the area that's out there.
Speaker B:It's a little ambiguous and maybe he's leaving it out there intentionally so.
Speaker A:And then of course we're going to quote again.
Speaker A:He calls him Mr.
Speaker A:Trump.
Speaker A:This is an insult.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:Like he's sliding.
Speaker B:He's sunning him a little bit big time.
Speaker B:Yeah, I love this.
Speaker B:I'm all for this.
Speaker A:If you want tariff rate to be zero, Mr.
Speaker A:Trump, aka President Trump said outside of the White House on Wednesday, then you will build your product right here in America.
Speaker A:And I wanted to include that here because manufacturing has largely left the United States.
Speaker B:Okay, but how long until that gets up and running?
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:Manufacturing us.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And then that's a couple years to get meaningful.
Speaker B:And then also just right now, when I think about things that I buy that are manufactured here in the US A lot more expensive.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:Because we actually have labor laws.
Speaker A:Yeah, well, I mean, child labor laws in particular.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, we have restrictions.
Speaker A:You can't just be like, you know, putting modern day slaves into coal mines.
Speaker B:And it is kind of crazy how we all consume.
Speaker B:We all know how these iPhones are made or how our lithium batteries, the Nikes on our feet are made.
Speaker A:How dare you?
Speaker A:Blasphemy.
Speaker B:What do you mean?
Speaker A:You know, you do not say that about.
Speaker A:My Nikes are all made domestically.
Speaker B:Dave Chappelle had a great.
Speaker B:Yeah, I'll send it to you later.
Speaker A:Please do.
Speaker A:I'm sure it's inappropriate for the show.
Speaker B:Very inappropriate for the show.
Speaker B:Now that we're not explicit.
Speaker B:But it's crazy how that's just people like, oh, well, as long as.
Speaker B:As long as I can get it for cheaper, I'm okay with it.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:I mean, you think about what this phone can do for you, Right.
Speaker B:How much this has advanced our economy, our society as a whole.
Speaker B:Everything.
Speaker A:So badass, dude.
Speaker A:Seventeen's gonna be thinner.
Speaker B:A thousand dollars.
Speaker A:I love it.
Speaker B:Twelve hundred bucks, right?
Speaker B:Like, come on.
Speaker B:This should be at least 10,000 bucks.
Speaker A:Your phone is the computer you use the most.
Speaker B:100%.
Speaker B:If you're spending three grand on an imac, how are you not spending more for this?
Speaker B:I know you're taking your imac with you everywhere.
Speaker A:Everywhere.
Speaker A:You know that's where we're gonna go with phones.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:Like, well, they're gonna.
Speaker A:You wind up getting a phone that's so powerful from a processing perspective.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:That you just plug that in to your computer screen with your keyboard and your mouse, and then you work off of your phone's computing power.
Speaker A:That's where we're going.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:The fact that we're not there already is kind of stunning.
Speaker B:Exactly.
Speaker B:And that's just gonna be another way where companies can track you even better.
Speaker A:First of all, I don't even care.
Speaker A:Track me all you want.
Speaker B:No, don't be that guy.
Speaker B:Don't be that guy, bro.
Speaker A:If I could.
Speaker B:You don't know.
Speaker A:Everywhere I go, and I could plug it into one screen, a mouse, and it can.
Speaker A:I just feel like.
Speaker B:I just feel like that's.
Speaker B:That's risky.
Speaker B:Like, I get the.
Speaker B:The idea and the concept of saying, I got nothing to hide.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:Okay, let me be the bear.
Speaker B:I'll share.
Speaker B:I'll share.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:They know.
Speaker B:Already know.
Speaker B:They already know.
Speaker A:They already know.
Speaker A:They can use your own WI fi router to get a 3D render the inside of your house at any point in time.
Speaker A:No, but you're taking a long shower for reasons that are questionable.
Speaker A:They know.
Speaker B:No, no, but when you're saying they, you're talking about government agencies right now.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah, no, I'm talking about they as in your employer.
Speaker B:Somebody that lives next door that can.
Speaker B:Can you have a separate iPhone?
Speaker B:Any app.
Speaker A:Work.
Speaker B:Any app that's on your phone.
Speaker B:Like, if your apps that are created.
Speaker A:In other countries, if you're an employer.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:You already have a work iPhone in most cases.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:That's why people have two phones.
Speaker A:You have a work.
Speaker A:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker B:Keep it separate.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:You would have.
Speaker A:You.
Speaker A:You have two computers.
Speaker A:You have your work computer, and you have your personal computer.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:So you just have a work iPhone that is also your computer.
Speaker A:I mean, there's not this.
Speaker A:I mean, you could.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker A:This is happening already.
Speaker A:You just got multiple devices just, you know, break it down to one.
Speaker B:Break it down to one and give you full access to everything.
Speaker A:What do you mean, full access to.
Speaker A:What is the full access you think you're getting?
Speaker B:No, but it's not.
Speaker B:It's not.
Speaker B:It's not that.
Speaker B:The full access that I'm afraid of giving up.
Speaker B:It's.
Speaker B:It's.
Speaker B:I don't know how much of, like.
Speaker B:It's like giving somebody the keys to your house and saying, yeah, you can come into my house.
Speaker B:It's cool.
Speaker B:What are you talking about?
Speaker B:What do you mean?
Speaker B:Why?
Speaker A:You have a home computer, right?
Speaker B:Yes.
Speaker A:You have an iPhone, right?
Speaker B:I do.
Speaker A:How's that any different?
Speaker B:No.
Speaker B:You're keeping two things different.
Speaker B:No, I'm talking about.
Speaker B:We're talking about work, right?
Speaker A:Okay, you.
Speaker A:I have a work laptop.
Speaker A:I have a work phone.
Speaker B:Yes.
Speaker A:I have a home computer.
Speaker B:You'd be okay with merging your personal and your work together?
Speaker A:No, you would just.
Speaker A:Why do you think that's necessary?
Speaker B:No, no, no.
Speaker B:You.
Speaker B:I'm saying that.
Speaker B:Isn't that what you're suggesting?
Speaker A:You.
Speaker A:No, no, I'm saying you would merge your computer and your phone together.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:No, that I get.
Speaker B:Yeah, I completely agree.
Speaker A:You would just get a work.
Speaker A:Instead of going to a company and getting a work computer and a work phone, they would just give you a work phone.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And then you just plug in a screen and a mouse to it.
Speaker B:Done.
Speaker A:And that would be your computing power and your work phone everybody would call you on.
Speaker A:It'd just be one device.
Speaker B:The little iPad with the keyboard.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:That's all you need, bro.
Speaker A:You're out here talking about Big Brother watching.
Speaker A:He's making up scenarios.
Speaker B:Big Brother's already watching.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:You don't have any privacy.
Speaker B:1984.
Speaker A:Trust me, I know all I needed.
Speaker A:You want.
Speaker A:You want better proof of it?
Speaker A:I can go to your Instagram feed right now, take all your dirty habits away from it.
Speaker B:I know you don't know much.
Speaker B:My.
Speaker B:My Instagram is so clean, bro.
Speaker B:It's so innocent.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Not the inappropriate humor.
Speaker A:Yeah, I don't think so.
Speaker B:Yeah, I'm very careful with what I like and what I don't.
Speaker A:What's the weirdest thing in your Instagram feed?
Speaker A:The weirdest thing?
Speaker B:The weirdest thing.
Speaker B:Yeah, I.
Speaker B:I have, like, a thing with.
Speaker B:I like.
Speaker B:There's this one page that I follow that Redesigns rooms.
Speaker B:And I just like watching how they redesign.
Speaker A:Can I get a lot of that?
Speaker A:Because I'm doing the pot, you know.
Speaker A:Yeah, you're not doing this.
Speaker B:But it's like where it's like they redo bedrooms.
Speaker B:Like you can turn your kids bedroom that's this small and make it like this and do all these different things like.
Speaker B:Oh, that's so cool.
Speaker A:Asian dude.
Speaker B:No, it's all, it's all through like their software.
Speaker B:So it's just, yeah.
Speaker B:Renders of, you know, however they make it.
Speaker A:Because one of the two of us is building a studio and I, you know, I'm constantly looking up things like Ikea and making sure I'm using the right like, you know, screws and simple stuff like that.
Speaker A:I get all sorts of like IKEA and like building based stuff on my feet.
Speaker A:The weirdest thing about my feet by far, cat videos.
Speaker A:Well, you can't get enough.
Speaker B:You're a cat.
Speaker A:Don't be that guy.
Speaker B:You're a cat guy.
Speaker A:I'm not a cat guy.
Speaker B:You're literally the definition of a cat guy.
Speaker B:You own one animal and it's a cat.
Speaker B:You're a cat guy.
Speaker A:Okay, so it makes you the devil.
Speaker B:That doesn't.
Speaker B:Who said that?
Speaker A:If you first of all animals, why didn't you make it personal?
Speaker A:Why?
Speaker A:You're a cat guy.
Speaker B:I didn't even say with a negative connotation.
Speaker B:You took it negative.
Speaker A:You don't like animals because you know.
Speaker B:That there's a perception to that.
Speaker A:You got two kids.
Speaker A:Why don't you have any pets, bro?
Speaker B:We want a pet.
Speaker B:We want to get a dog.
Speaker A:Why don't you get a dog?
Speaker A:Why have you gotten dog?
Speaker B:Well, just waiting for them to get a little bit older.
Speaker A:Why?
Speaker B:So I can trust them to walk out of the house and I don't need to walk with them so they can walk the dog on their own.
Speaker A:I don't know how to tell you this.
Speaker A:Every animal your parents get winds up being your parents dog, your parents animal.
Speaker B:Yeah, I know, I get that.
Speaker B:But I do be your dog occasionally.
Speaker B:I want them to.
Speaker B:To do it themselves.
Speaker B:And right now I can't let them walk on the street by themselves.
Speaker A:Please don't get a golden doodle.
Speaker B:Oh, you know me so well.
Speaker A:Don't you know me so well?
Speaker B:You know me so well.
Speaker A:Don't do it.
Speaker B:Yeah, I'm going to do it.
Speaker B:No, my wife.
Speaker B:My wife wants a different one.
Speaker B:She wants a Corso.
Speaker B:No.
Speaker B:What?
Speaker B:What's that?
Speaker A:A big ass dog.
Speaker B:No, no, no.
Speaker B:No, I.
Speaker B:I want a bigger dog.
Speaker B:Adam wants a big dog.
Speaker B:But the person that's going to win in this whole scenario is Arya, who, by the way, just has no idea how April Fools works.
Speaker B:She had the cutest.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Zero understanding.
Speaker B:She goes like this.
Speaker B:She goes, dad, can we go swimming today?
Speaker B:I go, no, it's too cold.
Speaker B:April Fools.
Speaker B:I'm like, that's not how it works.
Speaker A:That's fine.
Speaker A:I mean, you know, how many.
Speaker B:What are you doing every.
Speaker A:Every single damn April for?
Speaker A:I hate this.
Speaker A:And it's not a holiday.
Speaker B:What is it?
Speaker A:Why?
Speaker B:I don't know the history behind it.
Speaker B:Who came up with.
Speaker A:I don't care.
Speaker A:I don't want to know.
Speaker A:It's the stupidest, like, thing ever.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And like, there's always everybody now on social media.
Speaker A:They put out these ridiculous ass posts.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And the problem is none of our feeds are timely anymore.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker A:So I'm still seeing these damn April fool, like, posts going, like, what the.
Speaker B:Yeah, it's April 3rd, bro.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Like, I'm like, what?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:I mean, come on, man.
Speaker A:Like this.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Minus one on the curse, too, by the way.
Speaker A:He deserved it.
Speaker A:It deserved it.
Speaker A:That was.
Speaker B:Val.
Speaker B:Is valid.
Speaker A:Anybody who listens to the show going, you know what?
Speaker A:That's the appropriate use of that word.
Speaker B:If you're down with April fool stuff.
Speaker B:Like in the feeds.
Speaker B:Like, we can't be friends.
Speaker A:Look, I'm just saying, like, there, at some point in time, you got to put, like, you know, hashtag April Fools.
Speaker A:I mean, you gotta.
Speaker A:You gotta.
Speaker A:Come on, man.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Like, you know how they do.
Speaker B:Like, Stitch incoming.
Speaker B:You gotta do, like, April Fool's incoming.
Speaker A:The one I saw today.
Speaker A:The Chargers moving back to San Diego.
Speaker A:Stop, Stop.
Speaker A:People in the comment section, like, it's just.
Speaker B:Oh, I saw another.
Speaker B:I saw one, too.
Speaker B:Like, Staples center coming back.
Speaker B:Like, construction at Staples Center.
Speaker A:It was like LeBron's hairlines going, coming back.
Speaker A:It's just like.
Speaker A:No, it's not.
Speaker B:No, it ain't.
Speaker B:Never.
Speaker A:Right now he's got all the money in the world to fix that.
Speaker A:If he ain't fixed it yet, it's cuz it ain't coming back.
Speaker B:How frustrating, right?
Speaker A:What do you mean, frustrating?
Speaker B:No, how frustrating is it?
Speaker B:If you're LeBron, you got all the money in the world, right?
Speaker B:And you're trying to become this, like, movie star after.
Speaker B:After your NBA career.
Speaker B:And it's like, could be worse.
Speaker A:You could have the homeless man ball spot like Durant does.
Speaker A:You know, he just does not care.
Speaker A:He looks homeless.
Speaker B:All he does, all he wants to do is, oh, there's such a cool documentary on Netflix right now.
Speaker B:What Court of Gold on the Olympic team that just came back from the Olympics.
Speaker A:And all he wants to do is what?
Speaker B:No, it's just he's so passionate.
Speaker B:That's all he wants to do is like, unlike these other guys, they all have other, other hobbies like fashion or like LeBron's into, like his kid sports and all that.
Speaker B:You know what I mean?
Speaker B:His media company, right.
Speaker B:Like KD is just literally hoop all day, every day.
Speaker B:I want to talk hoop all day, every day to the point where he's.
Speaker B:He's like, in the interview, he's just talking basketball and just starts crying because he loves it so much.
Speaker A:What?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:You've never been that passionate about anything in your life, right?
Speaker A:It's cry because I love it so much.
Speaker B:You love it so much you're talking about it, you just start crying.
Speaker A:No.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:You don't know what that level of passion is.
Speaker B:What's wrong?
Speaker A:No, I got.
Speaker B:I think, I think we need to have a therapy session.
Speaker A:We don't need therapy.
Speaker B:You need it.
Speaker A:You don't want to do that with me.
Speaker B:Why?
Speaker A:Because you're the kind.
Speaker A:I feel like.
Speaker B:You know what?
Speaker B:I feel like you're the kind of guy that like, walks into like a therapy session and like, you're, you're fine.
Speaker B:You're looking for all the angles.
Speaker B:Like, you're asking me this question because you want to find out about this.
Speaker B:So I'm gonna, I used to have.
Speaker B:So I'm gonna answer it this way because I, I'm, I'm just.
Speaker B:And you know what?
Speaker B:You're gonna be playing mental mind games just to mess with that person.
Speaker A:I do.
Speaker B:I know you.
Speaker A:I know because I, you know, I like, I know psychology.
Speaker A:So, like, you know, I used to have a therapist, right.
Speaker A:And I would go to the therapist under the auspice of I could talk about a lot of things that happen in the business world because a lot of it's under NDAs.
Speaker A:Some of it involves celebrities and high net worth individuals.
Speaker A:And I really can't talk about it publicly.
Speaker A:And there's very few people I talk about this stuff with.
Speaker A:Right, right.
Speaker A:And so I had a therapist one point in time.
Speaker A:This is, you know, before marriage.
Speaker A:And you know, when I was.
Speaker A:During my, like, long run of being single, like years, and I would go and this older woman and I would talk to her and I'd be like, hey, you know, blah.
Speaker A:And we have these conversations and she'd always say stuff.
Speaker A:I look at her and be like, I'm smarter than you.
Speaker A:And every once in a while I get into her, like, life, like, what's going on?
Speaker B:Yeah, you turn the table, like, let's talk.
Speaker A:Oh, we would do it all the time.
Speaker A:And then at the end of one session, I'm like, why am I having a conversation with this lady?
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:It should be like a one way street, right?
Speaker A:And sure enough, you know, three, three, four sessions in, she's like, oh, have you seen my daughter's photo over here?
Speaker A:And I'm like, oh, no.
Speaker A:You know, because we were going back and forth.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:Don't do this.
Speaker B:Oh, yeah, that's wrong.
Speaker B:That's out of bounds.
Speaker A:You try to set me up.
Speaker B:That's out of bounds.
Speaker A:Try to set me up.
Speaker A:And I'm like, if you remember, I.
Speaker B:Can'T remember who it was on Rogan, but it was somebody that's well versed in this field.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And they said that the studies are out on this to where talking about your problems constantly actually make them grow.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:You obsessively, compulsively worry about them.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:This is why I go back and people hate it when I say this trauma is relative.
Speaker B:The real thing, they.
Speaker B:The real thing a good therapist will do is try to break whatever habits you've done just to get like, something, something as simple as, like, just stop whatever you're doing and break all routines and do something else.
Speaker A:All right, I'm gonna say something.
Speaker A:It's gonna really upset some people.
Speaker B:Oh, be careful.
Speaker A:I'm gonna be this guy.
Speaker A:Have you ever tried to find a therapist for.
Speaker A:For you?
Speaker B:No, but I really, I.
Speaker B:I think at some point I probably should.
Speaker A:Have you ever tried to find a therapist for somebody else?
Speaker A:Have you ever tried to find a therapist?
Speaker B:And by the way, I want to be.
Speaker B:I want to be on.
Speaker B:Think therapy is a very, very good thing for, oh, 100.
Speaker B:For a lot of.
Speaker B:For a lot of people.
Speaker B:And that it shouldn't be taken lightly.
Speaker A:No, no therapies.
Speaker A:If you find a good therapist, which.
Speaker A:The point of this conversation and the reason why I ask.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:First of all, I.
Speaker A:So when I first tried to find a therapist, like, there, there are therapists who specialize in certain fields like child, like level abuse or, you know, marital disputes and, you know, families.
Speaker A:I just wanted to talk to somebody about life.
Speaker A:I didn't have a problem.
Speaker B:I want.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I want somebody to talk that'll listen.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:It took me three months just to find somebody that that.
Speaker A:That just felt, like.
Speaker A:Fit the description.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Like, I'm not abused.
Speaker A:I don't really think I feel like I got any underlying problems.
Speaker A:Maybe a little autistic on, you know, here and there with some traits that I have.
Speaker A:And I admit I know them.
Speaker A:But, you know, I just want to talk to somebody that apparently is a problem.
Speaker A:But just finding somebody who just.
Speaker B:Well, it's fine.
Speaker B:It's hard.
Speaker A:Like that movie therapist where you walk in, you send a couch, you just talk about your problems.
Speaker A:That isn't the way it works, 99.
Speaker B:That's not how it works.
Speaker B:No, exactly.
Speaker A:And then make matters worse.
Speaker A:They were all excited, but cool.
Speaker A:My first appointment was three months out.
Speaker A:After that.
Speaker B:Yeah, see, that's a pro.
Speaker B:And then.
Speaker A:What are you doing?
Speaker B:I think.
Speaker B:And I think the pandemic made things a lot of.
Speaker B:A lot weirder for people because they tried to.
Speaker B:They tried to get it, just zoom it.
Speaker A:I mean, this was years before the pandemic.
Speaker A:But, yeah.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:You know, it's like, now zoom it.
Speaker B:And.
Speaker B:And they want to keep it that way.
Speaker B:But I think the problem, the reason why I ultimately haven't decided to go down that path and explore.
Speaker A:That's what we're doing tonight.
Speaker B:Honestly, I do think that, you know, having good, strong lines of communications with friends does form a good.
Speaker B:A good sense of therapy.
Speaker B:Not in the sense that.
Speaker B:Not in the way that I think traditionally, like, talking about your problems that a lot of people like to do, but breaking those habits, understanding bigger pictures.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And realizing that you're just a small speck on this.
Speaker B:On this thing, and your problems aren't as big as you may think they are.
Speaker A:It's not even that, like, your lifespan is nothing in the context of the world.
Speaker B:Exactly.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:So if you can, billions of years.
Speaker A:This galaxy, these worlds have been around.
Speaker B:Not to diminish your feelings, but it's also, if you can.
Speaker B:If you can, begin to wrap your.
Speaker A:Mind relative, though, man.
Speaker A:Like, I hate to say this.
Speaker A:People hate it when I say this.
Speaker A:And I'm not talking about the extreme example.
Speaker A:So don't be that guy who gets my DMS and, like, you know, points out an extreme example.
Speaker A:But the way you feel about something has a lot to do with society's interpretation of that thing at that moment in time.
Speaker B:I see.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:So you might feel really guilty for taking Manjaro.
Speaker A:Oh, my God, I'm cheating.
Speaker B:Yeah, I'm taking the easy way.
Speaker A:Oh, my God, I'm cheating.
Speaker B:But if I'm getting all these compliments as If I've been working out and I've been on top of it and I've been eating right, but really, I know it's because of the manjaro or you're on testosterone.
Speaker A:Oh, my God.
Speaker A:Oh, you're, you're, you're, you're taking steroids.
Speaker A:Huh?
Speaker B:You're chemically enhanced.
Speaker A:But as time has gone by and all these billionaires are, you know, taking stuff and they look younger and they're living longer, you're like, oh, my God, you're on trd.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah, me too.
Speaker A:The stigma, it's for longevity.
Speaker A:The trauma and the stigma that comes with these things.
Speaker A:And this can be applied to almost all types of trauma, for that matter.
Speaker A:It really depends on the time and set of circumstances and frankly, other people's opinions around you.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I think the stuff that's hard is when it's stuff that has to do with childhood and you wonder, like, oh, man, I had to go through that or see these things.
Speaker A:But again, I'll point.
Speaker A:There are tribes in all over the world that do some pretty incendiary, unsavory things by American traditional and frankly, healthy standards.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:But they consider to be a totally normal part of their tribes.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:I remember seeing an interview with George St.
Speaker B:Pierre about this.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:He was like.
Speaker B:And not that he's a very.
Speaker B:He seems like a very.
Speaker B:A wholesome person.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And he has his head on straight, but he's like, there is no right or wrong.
Speaker B:What's.
Speaker B:What?
Speaker B:I mean, there's no.
Speaker B:There's no what.
Speaker B:What is good and bad.
Speaker A:I would say right or wrong is transitory.
Speaker B:Way to bring it back, dog.
Speaker B:That's a.
Speaker B:That's a nice callback.
Speaker A:I'm here, boy.
Speaker A:I've been doing this like a professional for a while now.
Speaker B:This is a good callback.
Speaker B:I mean, well done, sir.
Speaker A:But I mean, I mean that dead seriously too, sarcasm notwithstanding, is that.
Speaker A:That right and wrong is transitory.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:What.
Speaker B:What was right or okay 10 years ago is not.
Speaker B:Is no longer okay.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:So.
Speaker A:And vice versa.
Speaker A:There are some things today that are okay that were not okay.
Speaker B:Ten years ago, you couldn't make four year old virgin today.
Speaker A:No.
Speaker B:Couldn't do it.
Speaker A:Could not do that.
Speaker B:Why?
Speaker B:And that's a classic Wedding Crashers.
Speaker A:Can't do it.
Speaker B:Can't do it.
Speaker A:Not gonna happen.
Speaker B:No way.
Speaker A:No.
Speaker B:Tropic Thunder.
Speaker B:Can't do that.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I definitely can't do that.
Speaker B:Can't do that.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Marvel was like the number one thing in the world and now they're kind of falling off a little bit.
Speaker B:Really?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:You wouldn't know because you don't watch any movies I tell you to watch, but I mean, if you did.
Speaker B:No, no, hold on, hold on.
Speaker B:There's.
Speaker B:It's, It's.
Speaker B:It's hard for me to understand why there.
Speaker B:It's still going after end game.
Speaker A:It's literally called end game in the comics.
Speaker A:If you were a true enthusiast.
Speaker B:I'm not.
Speaker B:You were clearly not a purist.
Speaker B:No.
Speaker A:You would know that the comic books did not stop at end game.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:There was other chapters.
Speaker A:What's difficult for most people is.
Speaker A:Is when you build an emotional connection to this one universe.
Speaker B:Yes.
Speaker A:Which I have to see it change.
Speaker B:Not okay with it.
Speaker A:That it has.
Speaker A:You feel less engaged in the rest of the story.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:That's how I am.
Speaker A:The saga is less.
Speaker A:Because then you also now know the commitment that you made to the first round.
Speaker B:Exactly.
Speaker A:In hours, in time and money.
Speaker A:I mean, it's just.
Speaker A:It's.
Speaker A:It's impactful.
Speaker A:It's like with Star Wars.
Speaker A:If Star wars would have had a brand new, like, opening right away, it wouldn't have this whole hype of all the first three are coming out.
Speaker A:Oh, the last three are coming out.
Speaker A:But now all the shows afterward, they saturated the market.
Speaker A:People like, bro, I don't.
Speaker A:I don't want to see.
Speaker A:I can't.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Like, I don't.
Speaker B:You know, I saw there was a.
Speaker B:I don't know what interview it was, but it was a reel that came across my feed.
Speaker B:I'm assuming it went viral because I don't know why it's in my feed, but it was Matt Damon talking about this.
Speaker B:About.
Speaker B:About movies in general.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And how production companies can't make as many movies or take risks on movies the same way they used to.
Speaker A:It's too much of a business because.
Speaker B:The income that they used to be able to lean on, on DVDs on the back end, they.
Speaker B:It's gone.
Speaker B:So they can't lean on that any any longer.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:So it's.
Speaker B:It's hard to.
Speaker B:It's hard to make their money back from all these movies.
Speaker A:You know, I spent a decent amount of time learning and doing a little bit of light work in film production, producing.
Speaker A:I would love to talk about those economics.
Speaker A:It's surprising to most people what.
Speaker A:What really goes into producing a film.
Speaker A:The time and the span.
Speaker A:And there's a whole, like, back end of it from a business perspective that is actually really interesting.
Speaker B:Dude, we should.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:If you're interested in this, Let us know.
Speaker B:DM us.
Speaker B:Leave a comment.
Speaker B:Something.
Speaker B:Let us know if that's something you'd be interested in listening.
Speaker B:Because I would love.
Speaker B:I would love doing research on stuff like this and doing a deep dive on it.
Speaker A:We could.
Speaker A:I mean, it's really fascinating the more you start to realize how these major production houses and where the money comes from and how financed they are.
Speaker A:There are so many movies that you see that are made by individuals.
Speaker A:Individuals who literally finance and push and push us along.
Speaker B:Yeah, actually, I know there's.
Speaker B:There's one of my daughter's best friends, her dad makes short films.
Speaker B:So not these.
Speaker B:Not bigger, big productions, but it's.
Speaker B:He.
Speaker B:He makes these short films for this guy who's just ultra wealthy out of Cleveland, and he just has them do projects after project after project.
Speaker B:And if he likes it, he picks it up.
Speaker B:If not, he had him recently do something on the school system out in Akron, Ohio, and he's like, I love what you did.
Speaker B:I can't use it.
Speaker B:Because there was a lot got exposed in it.
Speaker B:Because he lets him work freely.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:That's the problem is too much creative freedom these days also creates too much stigma.
Speaker A:I mean, look what happened to Snow White, right?
Speaker A:You had Rachel's or the Zegler girl.
Speaker A:What the hell her name is that actress.
Speaker B:Oh, yeah.
Speaker A:So the first of all, they changed the Snow White story because they wanted to make it more politically correct.
Speaker A:Like a prince wasn't a prince.
Speaker A:He was poor.
Speaker A:But then in the middle of all this, you have her, the.
Speaker A:The main actress coming out.
Speaker A:What the hell is her?
Speaker A:I don't remember her name, but she's a good actress.
Speaker A:She's just stupid with the political, like, spin.
Speaker A:She politicizes the movie because she won't stop talking.
Speaker B:If people feel like I have this.
Speaker A:Platform now, it's on track to lose nine figures.
Speaker B:Oh, my God.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I mean, it's a.
Speaker A:I mean, and this is.
Speaker A:Gail Godot is, you know, is in it.
Speaker A:And you gotta.
Speaker A:You got a good cast and they spent money on it.
Speaker A:The production's there.
Speaker A:Yeah, but you're just like, damn, bro.
Speaker A:I mean, it's a whole colossal nightmare.
Speaker A:And then you look at the.
Speaker A:The way this is produced.
Speaker A:This is also why guys like the Rock are the rocks.
Speaker A:Movies are not that great.
Speaker A:I know, I know they're not that great.
Speaker A:But he has the media machine behind him.
Speaker A:And when you do.
Speaker B:Exactly.
Speaker B:He's got the following.
Speaker A:That's why him and Kevin Hart blew up, is that they monetized and built off that.
Speaker A:They built social media.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And their chemistry in the relationship.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:It was special.
Speaker A:The chemistry in the relationship was also something that was built to cross pollinate their brands.
Speaker A:And they realized that there were two massive celebrities on their own, but if they cross.
Speaker A:And this also comes from Kevin Hart being very entrepreneurial.
Speaker A:He tapped into the rock and was like, yo.
Speaker A:Like, yeah, what are we doing here?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:His team exactly knew what they were doing.
Speaker A:So.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:So it's a big deal.
Speaker A:I had a lot more to go over, but I feel like we've.
Speaker A:We've exhausted our resources and our faculties.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:So that was a good episode.
Speaker A:Let's call it.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I didn't expect to talk about tariffs tonight.
Speaker A:I wasn't.
Speaker A:It wasn't.
Speaker A:It wasn't my game.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I was actually getting kind of excited about the angel investing.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:So angel investing, venture capital, private equity.
Speaker A:There's a lot of.
Speaker A:I have to be measured around those topics just because I know so many people in the spaces personally, professionally and in the business world as well as in my personal life.
Speaker B:Exactly.
Speaker A:So I've got to be very careful in how I describe it.
Speaker A:But certainly there's a lot that people don't understand that the terms get thrown around a lot.
Speaker A:And I think there's a lot of confusion by a lot of people with that, what that means and what it looks like.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:But I'll tell you right now, it's a really important episode to have in the next couple of months because there is more money in the private markets, in the venture capital markets waiting to be deployed than I've ever seen.
Speaker A:I mean, there's just.
Speaker A:Everyone is trying to just put money out.
Speaker B:So that goes kind of into our conversation that we had earlier tonight.
Speaker B:If.
Speaker B:If stock prices in the market does on average go down 30% during a recession.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And you have these private equity firms, you got all these people on the sidelines waiting to deploy capital.
Speaker B:When they do, what do you think is going to happen?
Speaker B:Oh, yeah, they're going to buy, it's going to rebound.
Speaker B:It'll all rebound again.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:So don't freak out.
Speaker A:Meanwhile, my $500 a month dollar cost averaging.
Speaker A:We're here to stay, brother.
Speaker B:We.
Speaker B:Ouch.
Speaker B:Ya.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker B:You got anything?
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:Just make sure your listening isn't transitory.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And I'm moderate, guys.
Speaker B:I'm not one way or the other.
Speaker B:I'm very moderate.
Speaker B:He's coming at me.
Speaker A:You are.
Speaker A:Honestly, you were the most moderate Democrat I know.
Speaker A:You are.
Speaker B:Good night, everybody.
Speaker A:Goodbye, my Republican counterparts.
