Understanding Tariffs: Impact on Consumer Prices & the Risk of Stagflation
Brace yourselves—this episode is a rollercoaster of wit, wisdom, and a little bit of economic doom. Chris and Saied break down the most contentious topic in finance right now: tariffs. Are they a necessary economic weapon or a sneaky tax on the everyday American? The guys cut through the noise with a no-nonsense breakdown of how these new tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico are set to shake up prices on everything from your morning avocado toast to the car you (maybe) planned to buy next year. They also take a moment to reflect on their own economic genius—because when you call stagflation a year and a half ahead of time, you deserve some flowers.
➡️ But it’s not just economic policy that gets roasted today—Best Buy, Target, and even fresh produce take a hit as the hosts connect the dots between trade wars, inflation, and your dwindling savings account. From the absurdity of avocado pricing to the hidden costs of an iPhone made in China, this episode peels back the layers of financial jargon to show you how these decisions will hit your wallet, your weekend grocery run, and possibly even your job. Oh, and if you thought guacamole was overpriced before, just wait.
💥 Have you left your "honest ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️" review?
👕 THS MERCH: http://www.thspod.com
🔗 Resources:
Free Trade (Wikipedia)
How Uncertainty From Trump’s Tariffs Is Rippling Through the Economy (Wall Street Journal)
How scared should you be about tariffs? (VOX)
Here's how Trump's tariffs could cost you and your wallet (NPR)
Will Trump’s tariffs push the U.S. economy into recession? Many economists think so. (Market Watch)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.
Transcript
Hi, Saeed.
Speaker B:Hello, Christopher.
Speaker A:How you doing?
Speaker B:I'm doing well.
Speaker B:How are you?
Speaker A:You know, I'm just living my best life.
Speaker A:One podcast at a time.
Speaker B:The question is, how are they doing?
Speaker B:Welcome back to the number one financial literacy podcast in the world.
Speaker B:Sitting next to me on my left is my partner in crime, Christopher Nahibi.
Speaker A:Had to think about that for a second, didn't you?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Who's it sitting next to me?
Speaker A:My partner in time, the one and only Syed Omar, everybody.
Speaker B:Thank you, my man.
Speaker B:Sitting behind the ones and twos.
Speaker A:Nobody, Not a single person works there anymore.
Speaker B:Nobody.
Speaker A:Empty.
Speaker A:That's a matter of fact.
Speaker A:We actually open the windows a lot more.
Speaker A:You know, if someone were there, we probably wouldn't want to see him.
Speaker A:So we would shut the.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:The curtains, but because nobody is there.
Speaker A:Curtains open.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:We need to know, we need to do.
Speaker B:We need to understand tariffs.
Speaker A:Are you going to go right into it?
Speaker B:It's.
Speaker B:It's a hot topic right now.
Speaker A:Can we.
Speaker B:Specifically this week.
Speaker A:Can we put a pause in there for a second?
Speaker B:Oh, pause.
Speaker A:I just.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Little look.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Sound effects are good.
Speaker A:A lot of people have in.
Speaker A:In my ecosystem have listened to the show, apparently for the first time.
Speaker A:And I'm getting a lot of good comments on the last show, which to me was a bit shocking because we kind of winged that one.
Speaker B:The headlines.
Speaker A:The headlines show.
Speaker B:Yeah, I.
Speaker B:So they.
Speaker B:They complimented the show based on the headlines I brought up.
Speaker B:Damn.
Speaker A:I mean, that's one perspective.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:It's painful for you to admit a.
Speaker A:Little bit when you phrase it like, I hadn't really thought about it like that.
Speaker B:Or.
Speaker B:Or was it because you had the toes on the last one?
Speaker B:So you want to.
Speaker B:You want to repeat it tonight?
Speaker A:Only because my shoes got dirty from the construction space, not because I wanted you to look at my toes.
Speaker A:But if you do think about ET tonight, it's because the toe next to my big toe does look like ET's jigger.
Speaker A:Elliot.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:So, yeah, tariffs.
Speaker B:So people.
Speaker B:The people liked the last episode, huh?
Speaker A:They did.
Speaker A:I got a lot of good compliments from it, from a lot of people, professionals in the working environment who were like, yo, man, I like that a lot.
Speaker B:We gotta run that back then.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I'm thinking once a month.
Speaker A:No, no, no.
Speaker A:I think.
Speaker A:I think we've got two real thoughts that we could kind of go with.
Speaker B:Mm.
Speaker A:Thought number one is every week at the end of the week, we put out a what to expect next week.
Speaker A:And here are the biggest headlines, like, real quick, 15 minute podcast episode, like really targeted the people who are in the real estate space or in finance and just say, hey, look, you want to go to a cocktail party?
Speaker A:You want to sound educated, like, you know, what's up?
Speaker A:15 minutes, we'll give you everything.
Speaker B:I love this idea.
Speaker A:Just boom, done.
Speaker A:There you go.
Speaker A:That's an episode.
Speaker A:All we're going to cover is the headlines.
Speaker A:Who reports next week, what to look out for, what the Fed's going to do.
Speaker A:And then you go to any party that week, you can talk about it.
Speaker A:Because you talk to us.
Speaker B:Exactly.
Speaker B:We'll give you some good sound bites.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:We'll let you make the best impression you can.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:You know, 100%.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Or you said you had another one.
Speaker A:Or we could just put out a second episode just like we did, because it took really no prep for us to sit down and talk about it.
Speaker A:We could pump that out.
Speaker A:I mean, keep in mind, even editing this show, like there wasn't a lot of content.
Speaker A:I had to like edit in for a visual, you know, tie in for stimulation.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I mean, you guys were all mentally stimulated.
Speaker A:Simulated.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Not visually.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:Unless you watch the show on YouTube.
Speaker B:In which case you should subscribe.
Speaker B:Hit that notification bell, you know, hit that like button.
Speaker B:Make sure we get this video out to as many people as possible.
Speaker B:Leave a comment down below or if you're listening on Apple or Spotify, leave us an honest five star review.
Speaker B:Vintage can pop.
Speaker A:Yep, gotta pop the cans.
Speaker A:All right, so tonight's episode was one we felt compelled to bring you to.
Speaker B:It'd be a shame if we didn't talk about this.
Speaker B:It's.
Speaker B:It's the hottest topic right now.
Speaker B:Every financial guru is even posting on it.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:So it became really important that we talk about tariffs in a meaningful way.
Speaker A:And I recognize right out the gate most people like, ah, tariffs, I kind of know what they are, but I kind of don't.
Speaker A:So this episode has really a structured format to give you everything you need to understand them, to know what they're going to do, how they impact Canada, Mexico, China specifically, and what you should expect to be a more likely than not outcome of all these tariffs.
Speaker A:Not with a political bias, not with any particular hidden agenda.
Speaker A:Just like, hey, look, factually, this is.
Speaker B:What this means for you and how, yeah.
Speaker B:How is this going to impact your day to day or your life in the near future?
Speaker A:Yeah, that's all right.
Speaker B:See we do this, I mean, we.
Speaker A:Got a, we got a little knack for it, you know.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:So I'm gonna Do a little slight introduction to tariffs with a little bit of a free trade background.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:And then I'm ripping this straight from Wikipedia because I think it sets up the bigger, broader picture for everybody.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:So shall we dive right in?
Speaker B:Let's do it.
Speaker A:All right.
Speaker B:Let me know if you want me.
Speaker A:To read it, because my reading skills historically, not been ideal, historically speaking.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:But we'll give you a shot.
Speaker A:Thank you.
Speaker B:You got the laptop.
Speaker A:I appreciate the.
Speaker A:I do have the laptop.
Speaker A:So I can actually see it as opposed to on a screen three feet away, where I'm blind, which is always an attractive quality.
Speaker A:Free trade is a trade policy that does not restrict imports or exports.
Speaker A:Simple concept.
Speaker A:It's free trade.
Speaker A:You can do whatever you want in or out of the country.
Speaker A:If life were that simple.
Speaker A:It's not.
Speaker A:So in government, free trade is predominantly advocated by political parties that hold economically liberal positions, while economic nationalist political parties generally support protectionism, the opposite of free trade, limiting import export to try to control the economy.
Speaker A:So you could argue that if you're a pure capitalist and you're like, hey, everybody should make money, then you would say, you know what?
Speaker A:I don't really want anybody involved in import export.
Speaker A:I want the economy to speak for itself.
Speaker A:If there's demand, bring in supply, Right?
Speaker A:If there's supply, hopefully there's demand and let it all work itself out.
Speaker A:But unfortunately, people want to control the outcome of the game.
Speaker A:And politically, these can be manipulated to change the economy.
Speaker A:Historically not done in the context that we're currently seeing it.
Speaker A:So there's been a lot of stigma.
Speaker A:A lot of really well educated, smart people from an economic perspective who have said that this is an act of war.
Speaker A:That's a headline, right?
Speaker A:Ooh, terrorists.
Speaker A:These terrorists are an act of war.
Speaker A:They're different.
Speaker A:We're gonna explain if they're not or.
Speaker B:If they are and definitely can be used in a way to help one elite group of people help another.
Speaker A:Maybe.
Speaker A:But the person who suffers the most, you, me, and the general American people here.
Speaker B:Absolutely.
Speaker A:So the question of is this for the greater good or not?
Speaker A:Will remain unanswered, frankly, until the end of the show, and then I'll let you form your own conclusion.
Speaker A:Most nations are today members of the World Trade Organization.
Speaker A:Multilateral trade agreements.
Speaker A:So states can unilaterally reduce regulations and duties on imports and exports, as well as form bilateral and mutual or mutual.
Speaker A:Multilateral.
Speaker B:Mutual to multilateral.
Speaker B:That's impressive.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's impressive how you're able to do that.
Speaker B:I respect it, sir.
Speaker A:How my son learned to read with me as a father, I have no idea.
Speaker A:Multilateral free trade agreements.
Speaker A:Free trade areas between groups of countries such as the European Economic Area and the.
Speaker A:I don't even know what that is.
Speaker A:Open markets.
Speaker A:Establish a free trade zone among members while creating a protectionist barrier between that free trade area and the rest of the world.
Speaker A:And if you're listening to this going, what the hell is he talking about?
Speaker A:Bear with me.
Speaker A:I'm going to explain why none of this really matters.
Speaker A:Yep.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:Most governments still impose some protectionist policies that are intended to support local employment, such as applying tariffs to imports or subsidiaries to exports.
Speaker A:Okay, so that was the general concept of protectionism.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Hence the name is that if we do this, we can support local employment.
Speaker A:People here are gonna have jobs, and we can apply the tariffs or, you know, or imports and subsidies to exports so that we can make money off of these things that are happening and we can support the local economy.
Speaker A:So good for the jobs, good for local economy.
Speaker A:That was the thought process, the best laid plans of mice and men.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:The thought process is we can make.
Speaker B:We can control behavior, we can control.
Speaker B:We can make things so expensive to where you will opt to buy from manufacturers or products that are US made or force manufacturers from outside the country to bring those manufacturers here into the.
Speaker A:US And I think that if you ask the current administration why they're doing it would probably say.
Speaker A:They would say that we want to try to force people to build here.
Speaker A:We want to try to force people to buy homegrown products and make this country great again.
Speaker A:Right, that would probably be the pitch.
Speaker B:That's the pitch.
Speaker A:Unfortunately, there are some real world implications to doing these things.
Speaker A:Like, for example, there's a lot of people who believe that tariffs are effectively an extra tax on you, on me, and on the American people.
Speaker B:And the pitch is, though, that with this extra tax income, we'll be able to reduce the amount of income tax.
Speaker A:Well, that's certainly going to be needed if the current president and the Doge Department, Department of Government Efficiency, are successful in reducing about half the employees at the IRS.
Speaker A:I think it was like 80 or 90,000.
Speaker A:That's the new statement that's out today.
Speaker B:Initially it was like 17,000.
Speaker A:Yeah, that number has grown.
Speaker A:And I don't know how much of it is fodder for social media, you know, just shenanigans.
Speaker A:But that was the latest number that I saw was half of the irs.
Speaker B:Well, because I believe from the Inflation Reduction act that they were going to add 80, 87,000?
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:Is that a coincidence?
Speaker B:I don't know.
Speaker A:It's a, it's a pretty staggering number and I can tell you people are rattled.
Speaker A:And the way I look at this stuff is I think to myself, okay, yeah, there should be technology in place for the IRS in particular to be able to do their job more efficiently.
Speaker A:For sure.
Speaker B:But can we get the technology in place first?
Speaker A:Let's do that first.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:You know what I mean?
Speaker A:Before we start saying we're going to fire everybody, because I don't, I don't think people were going to work really well into that particular climate emotionally.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:You know, we still care about, you know, survival, so as humans.
Speaker A:So governments may also restrict free trade to limit exports of natural resources.
Speaker A:Other barriers that may hinder trade include import quotas, taxes and non tariff barriers such as regulatory legislation.
Speaker A:There's lots of ways to do this, but tariffs for the most part are the most common way.
Speaker A: substantially increased from: Speaker A: ss increased again during the: Speaker A: substantially again from the: Speaker A:Economists and economic historians contend that current levels of trade openness are the highest they have ever been.
Speaker A:So if that is true, and economists and economic historians, which got to be the nerdiest job in history, believe that trade openness, our openness to free trade is the most it's ever been, then maybe these tariffs aren't such a bad thing because you're not in such an extreme openness position and you're limiting a little bit of this, you know, free trade internationally.
Speaker A:Maybe there's an argument there.
Speaker B:You know, maybe there is an argument there.
Speaker B:However, I, I think it would be, it would be tough to sell the fact that.
Speaker B:Are you taking into account the current climate that we're in?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Is now the right time to disrupt the supply chain?
Speaker B:Potentially it could.
Speaker B:Or because, I mean, we just had a disruption in the supply chain and that was very inflationary, it wasn't transitory.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:So with what we're dealing with is now, the question has to be asked, is now the right time?
Speaker A:Well, keep in mind too, is now the right time while you're effectively laying off a lot of government employees?
Speaker A:Yeah, I mean, so we're gonna get into, towards the end of this discussion how these things are very much mixed.
Speaker A:They are completely interrelated and there is a real threat on the horizon for what this is likely to do to the economy because of the ramifications of all these things happening at once.
Speaker A:But in order to get there, I need to give you a little bit of historical context, like I did about free trade.
Speaker A:Now, let's get into the basics.
Speaker A:Let's get into the meat and potatoes.
Speaker B:Let's do it.
Speaker A:The only thing that I really eat these days.
Speaker B:Meat, potatoes.
Speaker A:Yeah, I don't do fruits or vegetables.
Speaker B:No, no vegetables.
Speaker B:I understand fruits.
Speaker A:I actually like vegetables more than fruit.
Speaker A:Fruits and sugar.
Speaker B:No, the micro sugar.
Speaker A:With you, everybody use the micronutrients.
Speaker A:Take a vitamin.
Speaker B:I'll do that.
Speaker A:You know what I mean?
Speaker A:Just go to Costco, get a multivitamin, pop that bad boy.
Speaker A:You're good, you know?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I guess if your blood work isn't deficient, you're not doing anything wrong.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Blueberries, though, Like a nice, nice handful of blueberries.
Speaker A:I.
Speaker A:I don't mind a nice handful of blueberries on, like, cottage cheese, but, like, just raw, dogging blueberries.
Speaker A:Nah.
Speaker B:Cottage cheese kind of clumpy, bro.
Speaker A:I know you like that.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:You like the clumps?
Speaker A:I like the texture of cottage cheese.
Speaker B:Really?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:My wife hates it.
Speaker A:I love it.
Speaker B:A lot of health enthusiasts like to use cottage cheese.
Speaker B:And when they're making some concoction for supplements.
Speaker A:You choose all those words on purpose.
Speaker A:Yes, I'm enthusiastic about your concoction.
Speaker B:You see what I'm doing?
Speaker B:You see what I'm doing?
Speaker B:Still keeping it fun.
Speaker A:I.
Speaker A:I am not a health enthusiast by any stretch of the imagination.
Speaker A:But I just.
Speaker A:It's a good, low fat, high protein source of sustenance, Right?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And you're really killing my tariff vibes.
Speaker A:Although all this will relate to the tariffs.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:So, okay.
Speaker A:All right, so let's start with the basics here.
Speaker A:A tariff is a kind of sales tax.
Speaker A:Effectively, the federal government levies at ports of entry that applies to imported goods paid by the entity, usually a company that imports that.
Speaker A:Good.
Speaker B:Exactly.
Speaker B:So the way it works, you want to.
Speaker B:You say you want to import something, Whoever is importing has to provide an import declaration.
Speaker A:Yes.
Speaker B:And with that import declaration, it says what it is you're bringing in and what it's worth at the time you're bringing it in.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Because that's where the.
Speaker B:How much it gets taxed is dependent on.
Speaker A:See all the.
Speaker A:See the last episode when you were like, oh, I used to work at the ports of Long beach, bro.
Speaker A:I worked in import export.
Speaker A:Now they're Going like, damn, he really did maybe this guy.
Speaker A:That sounded professional as hell.
Speaker B:Yeah, he sounds like he knows what he's talking about.
Speaker A:Unfortunately, you do know what you're talking about, which makes it hard to make fun of you.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:Study after study has shown that companies pass these costs on to their customers.
Speaker B:Of course.
Speaker B:Because how many companies out there are really going to absorb this tax just to maintain their market share?
Speaker A:Yep, that's right.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:I mean, there's not a lot of companies out there that can even weather that storm.
Speaker A:So let's just break this down to just simple logistics.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:If you Said are the Saeed Import Export Company.
Speaker B:Oh, I like it.
Speaker A:What are you importing?
Speaker B:Widgets.
Speaker A:Widgets.
Speaker B:That's not sexy, but that's law school, right?
Speaker A:Okay, you're importing widgets.
Speaker A:Said Import Export Company is importing widgets.
Speaker A:And you bank $5 in profit on every widget.
Speaker A:It is universally known that you're going to keep that $5 in profit and you're just going to raise your prices to cover the tariff that you get.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:I mean, especially if I have to answer to a board that wants to know where our earnings.
Speaker A:Exactly.
Speaker A:Now, Said from said's Import Export Co.
Speaker A:International LTD.
Speaker A:Ltd.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:Of widgets.
Speaker A:Yeah, of widgets.
Speaker A:Let's just say five years from now, the customer's gotten acclimated to your price of widgets now.
Speaker B:Absolutely.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:But the tariffs go away.
Speaker A:What do you do?
Speaker A:Do you lower your prices back down?
Speaker B:Why would I do that?
Speaker B:I just, I just stepped into more profits, more earnings.
Speaker A:Yes, you did.
Speaker A:Yes, you did.
Speaker A:And that, America, is how this works.
Speaker B:That's capitalism, though.
Speaker A:That's capitalism.
Speaker A:Tariffs are generally calculated as a percentage of the cost of a good.
Speaker A:If you have a 25 tariff, that means the cost of the tariff is 25% of the cost of the good.
Speaker A:So Saeed's widgets cost 10 bucks.
Speaker A:25%.
Speaker B:Do it.
Speaker A:Do the math.
Speaker B:Do it.
Speaker A:You can do it.
Speaker B:You got $2.50.
Speaker A:There you go.
Speaker A:It's now a $12.50 item.
Speaker A:And unfortunately, at the bare minimum.
Speaker A:Yeah, at the bare minimum.
Speaker A:Now if you're a company, you could also juice your, your price increase to, you know, get a little more profits in there.
Speaker A:You could say, you know What?
Speaker A:It's now $13.
Speaker A:America, suck it.
Speaker B:How about that?
Speaker A:Yeah, right.
Speaker A:And that, that's, that's, unfortunately, the way that this typically works is you get.
Speaker A:They go, okay, well, you know what?
Speaker A:The tariff is one part, but there's also incremental costs on US that have also now gone up because now our cost to make these widgets from other people who have tariffs has gone up.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:So it's not just as simple as a unilateral tariff to you, and it's.
Speaker B:Not just as simple as this is affecting us.
Speaker B:Canada and Mexico are going to get hit hard by this on all the US Products in China and China that are getting exported to them.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:So people over there are no longer immediately right out.
Speaker B:Right out the gate.
Speaker B:The first things that are.
Speaker B:That are getting hit are all your grocery store items.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah, we'll get into that later.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:Don't worry.
Speaker A:I got.
Speaker A:I got a whole section on all the things you can expect to cost you more money in the future.
Speaker B:This week?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:This week.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:As in, like, looming?
Speaker B:As in.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:As in.
Speaker B:As in when this episode comes out, this last week that you were just dealing with.
Speaker A:Yeah, we're basically telling the future.
Speaker B:Yeah, we're exactly.
Speaker B:We're predicting the future.
Speaker A:That's how it works.
Speaker A:Typically, a government, say the U.S.
Speaker A:government sets a tariff on a certain good or class of goods made abroad.
Speaker A:When that good reaches the US Port of entry, the company importing it has to pay the government before they can receive it.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:So somebody's got to pay.
Speaker A:Otherwise you're not getting off the ports.
Speaker A:Otherwise it's going to sit out there in a boat until such time as you agree to pay it.
Speaker A:So they have pretty damn good controls in place for this.
Speaker A:Historically, tariffs have tended to apply only to certain countries and only certain goods from those countries.
Speaker A:A great example of this, the Biden administration put targeted tariffs on batteries, electric cars, and solar panels being made in China, citing economic and national security concerns.
Speaker A:Remember that whole Huawei thing and all the phones and everything else?
Speaker A:Well, this is part of that problem.
Speaker A:So certainly you can use this to kind of control and push manufacturing into the US you don't have to worry about foreign influence or spying.
Speaker A:That makes sense.
Speaker A:Traditionally, that's kind of how you do these things.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Unfortunately, we are not in a traditional time.
Speaker A:What's unusual about Trump's proposed tariff is that they're on all goods from an entire country.
Speaker A:A little broader.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:The 25% tariff on Canada wasn't just on maple syrup to protect producers in Vermont.
Speaker A:It was on everything that country makes, with some energy products being hit with a 10% tariff instead of just 25.
Speaker B:Oh, yeah.
Speaker B:So, I mean, this is now turning into a trade war.
Speaker B:Trudeau has come out and spoken on this.
Speaker B:A lot of leaders from certain Provinces in Canada have been speaking on it.
Speaker A:And now they're all applying retaliatory tariffs.
Speaker B:Oh yeah.
Speaker B:And like in Ontario, for instance.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:They provide actually a lot of electricity to Minnesota, Michigan, New York.
Speaker B:They're already saying you can expect a 25% tariff on electricity for, for them right away.
Speaker B:And just letting you guys know if it gets out of hand will be shutting it down completely.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Oh, and shout out to our Canadian listeners.
Speaker A:I got a couple of them hitting up, hitting me up in the DMs.
Speaker B:We love you.
Speaker B:We.
Speaker B:I personally would not impose a tariff on you.
Speaker A:Yes, you would.
Speaker A:That's a lie.
Speaker B:I would not.
Speaker A:You make fun of Canadians all the time when we were not on live cameras.
Speaker B:No, I, I, I'm Drake.
Speaker B:What about last week?
Speaker A:I'm after the show.
Speaker B:I'm Drake.
Speaker A:I'll doing the whole like Canadian slang.
Speaker A:Tutus, Kroski.
Speaker B:My word.
Speaker A:That whole thing you do that.
Speaker B:That's a lie.
Speaker A:Yeah, you did, Christopher.
Speaker A:See, I wouldn't even know that stuff, man, if it wasn't for Saeed.
Speaker B:All the tangs.
Speaker A:That's a guilty pleasure of mine, by the way, is watching Canadian slang from Toronto.
Speaker B:The tings.
Speaker A:Yeah, Misk.
Speaker A:Yeah, all the words.
Speaker A:If you don't know what that means, look it up.
Speaker A:Because I can't say it on the show.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:Not anymore.
Speaker A:Anyway.
Speaker A:The other strange thing about the, the Trump tariffs, by the way, there's more here is that they don't account for what are known as de minimis exceptions and exemptions.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:They used to be, there used to be a way to carve out some of these tariffs and say, hey, it's not going to affect everything.
Speaker A:So these are carve outs on tariffs for items below a certain price point, usually cheap goods that are too small for the government to worry about.
Speaker A:And I know what you're thinking, Chris.
Speaker A:Can you give me a real world application here?
Speaker A:Because I don't fully understand.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:You have a wife.
Speaker B:I do have a wife.
Speaker A:I have a wife.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:Does your wife buy stuff from Sheen, for example?
Speaker B:She has.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:Does your wife buy stuff from temu, for example?
Speaker B:I don't know, but I would, I would like, I would assume so.
Speaker B:I know Sheen for sure.
Speaker A:My wife definitely buys stuff from temu.
Speaker A:I don't know if she's a Sheen fan, but a lot of people buy stuff from these two companies.
Speaker B:Sheen was great for like kids clothes, right?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:They go through them so fast.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:So normally done, a de minimis exception would carve out because that stuff is too cheap to really fall under the tariff.
Speaker B:Makes sense.
Speaker A:So you would just carve it out.
Speaker A:Well, those exemptions are what allowed companies like Sheen and Temu to operate.
Speaker A:Trump's new tariffs don't appear to eliminate that exemption, which means their operational cost cost to you is going to go up so big it's going to double some of the cost of the goods.
Speaker B:What, what that's gonna, what that is ultimately gonna do, though, it's gonna disincentivize that behavior of buying from them now.
Speaker B:I don't think, I don't think people are just gonna eat that cost and continue to order from them at that point.
Speaker B:If the, if the cost now becomes comparable.
Speaker B:Yeah, right.
Speaker A:Then you're effectively shutting those sites down in the U.S.
Speaker A:yes, exactly.
Speaker A:Because they're, they're not going to be as attractive.
Speaker A:Because keep in mind, you could buy a cheap item, pay more for shipping and make sense of it, but if you're paying the same amount as you would in the US for the item now, or close to it, and you're paying more for shipping, it becomes economically absurd.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And that's the whole.
Speaker B:I think we need.
Speaker B:We should pause for a second here.
Speaker A:And I don't ever pause.
Speaker A:Go, go, go, baby.
Speaker B:Oh, come on, pause.
Speaker B:I love that game pause.
Speaker B:But it's a game.
Speaker B:We can't talk.
Speaker B:We can't talk about this anymore.
Speaker A:What game do you speak of over there, boy?
Speaker B:The thing, the thing that everybody needs to remember because.
Speaker B:Yes, I know we're all concerned about ourselves and we got to take care of home base.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:However, pain that comes along with tariffs is not a zero sum game.
Speaker B:No, the pain is shared.
Speaker B:Think about how many people will be out of work in these countries.
Speaker B:China, Mexico, Canada.
Speaker B:How many jobs, right.
Speaker B:Like this is ultimately going to impact the car manufacturers in Canada, in Mexico.
Speaker A:Mexico, yeah.
Speaker B:How many thousands of jobs these people have been working at these plants, like families, generations have been working there.
Speaker A:And for those of you going like, oh, gosh, how much is this really going to affect me?
Speaker A:Can we quantify?
Speaker A:Oh, yeah, we're going to quantify it all.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:I've got numbers for you on imports from certain countries that are going to impact you.
Speaker A:And I've got the aggregate number all in which is going to impact you at least hypothetically, based on the numbers that we're seeing now.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And I got some, I got some data that CEOs from Best Buy and Target decided.
Speaker B:Decided to talk about.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah, makes sense.
Speaker A:A lot of their product is imported.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Those are places that we all shop at.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Although I don't really go to Best Buy that much unless I really need something.
Speaker B:Really need to.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And we have one right on the street from us.
Speaker B:Why?
Speaker B:Why are they so popular with, like, home appliances?
Speaker A:I think because you can go in physically touch stuff.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And people don't like to order appliances unless they can, you know, touchy feely.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Like you want to feel like the drawers feel like.
Speaker B:I want to see how.
Speaker B:How the door feels like when you open and close it.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:You use refrigerator every day?
Speaker A:Most multiple times a day.
Speaker B:Buying a fridge from Best Buy is just like, I don't know if this is the right move.
Speaker B:Costco, the way to go, bro.
Speaker A:Costco is kind of the way to go for appliances now.
Speaker B:It is, right?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Although you can go to Costco, you can check stuff out, but it's kind of hit or miss.
Speaker B:It's the return policy that does it for me.
Speaker A:And the warranty.
Speaker B:And the warranty.
Speaker A:Get a five year warranty, bruh.
Speaker B:Come on.
Speaker B:You're not being that.
Speaker A:Although I'm the guy who's like, I don't want to take it off the wall.
Speaker A:Take it back over.
Speaker A:Let me just.
Speaker A:You know, we're so lazy.
Speaker A:I'm just so lazy.
Speaker A:I can't do it.
Speaker A:I just.
Speaker A:I'm like, can y'all come get it?
Speaker B:They need to add that in there for an additional fee.
Speaker B:I'll pay that.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Take it off the wall.
Speaker A:All right, so I'm gonna cite a Wall Street Journal article coming up next, how uncertainty from Trump's tariffs is rippling through the economy.
Speaker A:It's already happening, and they're not fully in effect yet.
Speaker A:So this is what the fodder for headlines really comes down to.
Speaker A:And I would say we talked a little bit about narrative economics before on the show, about how these narratives can really be sensationalized to draw you in, but they make something that's not such a big deal seem like a big deal.
Speaker A:This is not the case here.
Speaker A:This is a big deal.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:So the US Economy entered a new era Tuesday as President Trump's tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada took effect.
Speaker A:The new tariffs on imports imported goods ended decades of free trade among the three countries and stood to disrupt entire industries.
Speaker A:Anytime you're talking disrupt entire industry, it's worthy of saying how tariffs are rippling through the economy.
Speaker A:I think it's a warranted statement.
Speaker A:The tariffs have the potential to profoundly reshape relationships with the United States and its two largest trading Partners abruptly reversing America's decades long project of expanding free trade with its allies.
Speaker A:This could also slow a US economy, and I'm telling you now, we will not, could, will slow the US economy that is already absorbing the effects of mass federal job cuts, reduced government spending and immigration restrictions, while raising prices on an array of goods as varied as autos and avocados.
Speaker A:I mean, did anybody think this through timing wise?
Speaker A:You know what?
Speaker A:Hey, we got a lot to do.
Speaker A:We should probably pick one.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And then I know that this administration is already starting to crack down on some of the Biden economics.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Although I will admit there's, there's a.
Speaker B:Lot there to unpack and some of the economic data.
Speaker B:But you can't be doing that and this at the same time and expect me to believe that everything that is about to transpire is, is due to the previous administration.
Speaker B:I mean, this is, this is effectively what's going on here right now.
Speaker B:What's going on in the stock market you probably see more so than anybody.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Today was a profound day.
Speaker A:The market has reacted to this in a meaningful, tangible way because people, it's.
Speaker B:Not even so much so because it's too early to tell how, how bad or how irrelevant this could be.
Speaker A:See, that's the problem.
Speaker A:The uncertainty.
Speaker B:That's what I was going to say.
Speaker A:The uncertainty is a huge problem.
Speaker B:The uncertainty, investors and everyone are just waiting because the uncertainty and the unpredictability behind it all is what is scaring everybody of where and how far will this go?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And the unknown here, because we're in a lot of unchartered territory, is one of those things that could be a catalyst like the fall of Lehman Brothers.
Speaker A:So I don't think you should look at this with any rosy optimism.
Speaker A:I think you should be cautious.
Speaker A:The market's being cautious.
Speaker A:The stock market's responding like a cautious market.
Speaker B:It's, you know what's scary behind it is that, that this position, his position, DJ's position, can do this at the stroke of a pen by himself.
Speaker B:He can avoid all the checks and balances of Congress.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And just, and just take matters into his own hand like this.
Speaker B:Which is pretty wild to me.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Until AI can actually be our president, in which case, you know, we'll see.
Speaker A:But yeah, no, it's a, it's a meaningful.
Speaker B:That's a lot of power, bro.
Speaker B:Yeah, right.
Speaker A:That's a CEO move, though.
Speaker A:I mean, that's a CEO.
Speaker B:It is a CEO move.
Speaker A:He is the CEO of the United States.
Speaker A:Frankly, like him or not, that.
Speaker A:That is, that is within his wheelhouse.
Speaker A:And the things that aren't will be challenged.
Speaker A:But this, unfortunately, is one of the things he can do.
Speaker A:Like it or not.
Speaker A:The 25% tariffs have been levied on imports from Mexico and Canada, with the exception of energy products such as crude oil and natural gas, which will be tariffed at a 10% rate.
Speaker A:Canada said it would impose retaliatory tariffs, while Canada's province of Ontario also said it would impose a 25% export tax on electricity.
Speaker A:Like said, it sends 1.5 million U.S.
Speaker A:homes power.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:That's a lot.
Speaker A:Mexico's president said it would also retaliate with a range of moves to be announced on Sunday.
Speaker B:So what I was reading was that the attempt.
Speaker B:And I don't know if this is true or how.
Speaker B:How accurate they can even be, but leaders of these countries are going to look to implement their version of tariffs in the trade war on specific regions of the country that support the president.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:That are more red.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:In.
Speaker B:In hopes that they will go to their elected officials and, and their elected officials can put pressure on dj And I don't know how you can necessarily do that.
Speaker B:I mean, obviously it'll be data driven.
Speaker A:I don't think I get that granular.
Speaker B:I mean, it's, it's kind of.
Speaker B:That's hard, especially when you got to move fast.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Keep in mind that these are national trade wars, so the, the state sovereignty here doesn't really play.
Speaker B:This could, that could be just a way of them trying to save a little face.
Speaker B:Like, hey, don't blame us.
Speaker B:Blame.
Speaker B:Blame your guy.
Speaker A:Yeah, I mean, you're good at that.
Speaker A:In about four years from now, when the next election comes up and they're trying to lobby for, like, this is why you guys pay so much for rice now.
Speaker A:I mean, it's going to be all sorts of fights like that.
Speaker A:But I mean, keep in mind, you know, beyond tariffs to Mexico and Canada, Trump also placed tariffs 20% on China.
Speaker A:So you got our three largest trading partners taxed with a pretty hefty tax.
Speaker A:And I mean, this is an international problem.
Speaker A:So they're going to do the.
Speaker A:All three of them are doing this exact same thing back.
Speaker A:And these are our three largest trading partners.
Speaker A:So you can expect everything as a result of this is going to get more expensive.
Speaker A:And unfortunately, because there are no limitations on it, there's no de minimis number, there's no exceptions.
Speaker A:This applies to everything.
Speaker A:And, well, that's a problem.
Speaker A:So the natural question From a Vox article that I have here, which I don't cite very often in the show, is how scared should you be about tariffs?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Like, is it a good concept or not?
Speaker A:Is it a good concept or not?
Speaker A:Well, Saeed, I have some food for thought on that.
Speaker A:So what we're going to do is we're going to talk a little bit about the article here, but then we're going to talk about some immediate economic impacts.
Speaker B:Let's do it.
Speaker A:Things you're going to feel tomorrow.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:Not next week, not next month, tomorrow.
Speaker A:Mexico has promised retaliation as we've already talked about.
Speaker A:So you know that's going to happen.
Speaker A:Canada put tariffs on 30 billion worth of US exports.
Speaker A:30 billion.
Speaker A:And as promised, tariffs on the additional 125 billion by the end of the month.
Speaker A:China announced tariffs to 10 to 15% on a wide range of US agricultural and food products.
Speaker A:Trump has long extolled the benefits of tariffs, infamously saying that tariffs are the most.
Speaker A:I'm sorry, the word tariffs is the most beautiful word in the, in the dictionary, surpassed only by God, religion and love.
Speaker A:Trump has also claimed that tariffs are going to make us rich as hell and will, quote, bring back billions.
Speaker A:Business that left us, end quote.
Speaker A:Basically, to hear the President tell it, tariffs are a magical thing that makes everyone's lives better.
Speaker A:But is this true?
Speaker A:Well, Saeed, what do you think?
Speaker B:Okay, so this is what I, this is what I genuinely think.
Speaker B:I think that I, I thought that from the very beginning when the idea of tariffs were brought up, that this was just a negotiating tactic.
Speaker B:There's no way in hell he's actually go through with it.
Speaker A:I thought it was a bit of a threat.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:You know, to open up conversations.
Speaker B:Yeah, absolutely.
Speaker A:But, yeah, I think we were wrong.
Speaker B:Yeah, I think we were wrong.
Speaker B:I do, I think that this is the soul.
Speaker B:What I'm about to say is the sole reason.
Speaker B:No, do I think that it plays a part just knowing, knowing him as the way I do know him from the outside and who he likes to help out.
Speaker B:He's got friends.
Speaker B:He's got friends in that whole.
Speaker B:Very high positions.
Speaker B:At the end of the day, this could very much benefit a lot of people in his inner circle.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Look no further than Elon.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker B:You, you impose a 20 tariff tax on China.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:A good example of something that could stop immediately.
Speaker B:That would get too expensive to manufacture in China.
Speaker B:That would have to start either being bought here or manufactured more here.
Speaker B:Solar panels and components of solar panels.
Speaker A:Have you heard the expression lithium valley before?
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:No.
Speaker A:So in Southern California, closer to the border, there is a very massive lithium mine reserve.
Speaker A:I think it's the second largest in the world outside of some foreign countries that have lithium.
Speaker A:It's mined.
Speaker A:Obviously it's cheaper to mine lithium, a very toxic substance, in foreign countries where they don't have all the restrictions.
Speaker B:Yeah, I've seen it.
Speaker B:So I've seen these photos.
Speaker B:It's pretty gnarly.
Speaker A:It's heartbreaking.
Speaker B:It's gnarly.
Speaker A:But if you own land in and around Lithium Valley, and you know that there's gonna be all these tariffs in place, you know that that might be economically viable, given the cost to bring that stuff into the United states is now 20%, 25% higher, you may be able to justify mining here in Southern California and making all the batteries from domestically sourced lithium.
Speaker A:And then in that way, you're probably helping not only the US economy, but you're probably also helping to stop a very nasty political situation with people being taken advantage of.
Speaker B:Oh, yeah, absolutely.
Speaker B:And I took the liberty of taking it a step further and looking into Tesla Solar.
Speaker A:Of course you did.
Speaker B:Of course I did.
Speaker A:You're an Elon Musk hater.
Speaker A:Quietly.
Speaker B:I think I just don't like the way that he's going about a lot of things.
Speaker B:Yeah, it's very disingenuous.
Speaker A:I know that it's disingenuous.
Speaker A:I just think that it's.
Speaker B:No, I think to position it like I'm.
Speaker B:I'm here.
Speaker B:I'm like to make it seem like you're not benefiting at the expense of the American people with any of this.
Speaker B:It's crazy, right?
Speaker B: of: Speaker B:Impose a tariff on solar panels alone.
Speaker B:Imagine what that does for him.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker B:I'm not saying this is.
Speaker B:I'm not saying it's the sole reason, but you.
Speaker B:Now, I'll take it a step further.
Speaker B:This is.
Speaker B:This.
Speaker B:This came out on X two days ago.
Speaker B:You hear about this crypto bailout?
Speaker B:I know I'm taking a hard left turn here with this, but this is just to drive the point home that it's not just earning more income in revenue for the U.S.
Speaker B:but this is to help out his people.
Speaker A:I legitimately don't know what you're talking about.
Speaker B:I know you don't know what I'm talking about.
Speaker A:That's hurtful.
Speaker B:DJ announced a crypto reserve which will be.
Speaker B:Which will include xrp, Solana and Ada, Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:He wants to create a crypto reserve funded by tax dollars, essentially to keep these cryptos safe.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Why quote, I will make sure the US Is crypto capital of the world.
Speaker A:I heard that.
Speaker A:Quote, Yeah, I heard that.
Speaker B:Ok.
Speaker B:Guess who we put in charge of this group?
Speaker B:David Sacks.
Speaker A:Of course he did.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:This is all, by the way, shout out to Sacks.
Speaker A:By the way, all in podcast.
Speaker A:One of the four hosts, him and Chmath.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:This was all uncovered, by the way, by somebody by the name of Derek Martin on X.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:So you know it's reliable.
Speaker B: ,: Speaker B:Cesar, how you pronounce that Czar?
Speaker B:Zar.
Speaker B:A newly created role with.
Speaker A:Did you really just say Cesar?
Speaker B:Cesar yeah, It's a newly created role with the goal of building a legal framework for the cryptocurrency industry.
Speaker A:I might not be able to read good, but I know the words.
Speaker B:Trump also named him to lead the President's Council of Advisers on science and technology.
Speaker A:I heard that part.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:The conflict of interest here, new level of corruption.
Speaker B: rtup called bitwise invest in: Speaker B:David Sachs is listed as the primary investor for this company.
Speaker B:Listed.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:The main crypto coins going into the reserve fund just so happened to match Bitwise's top five crypto holdings.
Speaker A:Well, you could also argue, and I'm not defending David, but I'm saying you could also argue that he's believed in those cryptocurrencies and then he's been a fan of them.
Speaker A:So it's natural that he would gravitate towards things that he liked and supported for his own investment purposes.
Speaker B:But for the reserve account to be.
Speaker A:A backstop, you can't deny he's backstopping his own investments.
Speaker B:He's backstopping his own investments.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And for a lot of people that probably have millions, if not billions of dollars into this.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:You know, and there's just not enough liquidity to go around to for them to recover some of that money.
Speaker A:Would you hear Elon Musk on Joe Rogan?
Speaker B:Bits and pieces.
Speaker B:And the only, the biggest part was how he can't reveal too much of what he knows because of.
Speaker B:He's concerned about his lifespan.
Speaker A:He's.
Speaker A:Yeah, he's concerned about people killing him.
Speaker A:He said that beyond insider trading.
Speaker A:Way beyond insider trading.
Speaker B:You're telling me to tread carefully.
Speaker A:I'm telling you Sacks got power, bro.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Be careful he has the juice.
Speaker A:No, what I'm saying is, is like look like.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Humans are inherently capitalistic and self protective, if you will.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:So it doesn't surprise me that some of these things have some self interested benefit.
Speaker A:And to your point, I don't know that these are good things.
Speaker A:So let's, let's talk about just core concepts here.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Inflation and consumer prices.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:So if businesses are raising costs and there's potential price hikes and I'm by potential, I'm using the word loosely here because we know it's certain.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:If price hikes are coming as a result of tariffs and you're Jerome Powell, you're throwing a tantrum in your house.
Speaker A:Like you're upset.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:I spent all this time, President, to try to reduce inflation from 9.1%.
Speaker A:You know, inflation is on an upward trend.
Speaker A:For the last four months it's been incrementally creeping up to where now we're effectively at 4%.
Speaker A:We're going the wrong way.
Speaker A:And here you are increasing prices intentionally.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Under the auspice of this is going to make America great again.
Speaker A:How?
Speaker B:How?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:There's no way.
Speaker B:At his next post game press conference.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:He does not cite this as an issue because he wants people to know this is not my doing.
Speaker A:He is actively being worked against by the White House which is in their own discretion, autonomy.
Speaker A:So if you're Jerome Powell, you're not happy about this.
Speaker A:But if you're Jerome Powell, there's other problems you're not happy about because guess what?
Speaker A:Gross domestic product growth typically slows due to reduced trade volume.
Speaker A:If we're reducing our import exports.
Speaker A:Right, right.
Speaker A:People got to manufacture here domestically.
Speaker A:That's going to slow manufacturing down.
Speaker A:It's going to increase cost and it's going to, it's going to slow.
Speaker A:Gross domestic product, a very, very big metric which is really important for.
Speaker A:Wait for it, two successive quarters of negative GDP growth is known as a recession.
Speaker B:A recession.
Speaker A:Recession.
Speaker A:If you're a no real Roubini guy who's gotten no airtime since he sold out the crypto, by the way.
Speaker B:Yeah, rightfully so.
Speaker A:He got dropped.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:The media was like, okay, I've had enough of the hot tub guy.
Speaker A:Like just get him out of here.
Speaker A:He was on cnbc.
Speaker A:He was everywhere.
Speaker A:Then as soon as he co signed crypto Dr.
Speaker A:Doom.
Speaker A:Yeah, Dr.
Speaker A:Doom went bye bye right now Robert Downey's Dr.
Speaker A:Doom Adidas ever.
Speaker B:Sent him those kicks.
Speaker B:Remember we had that on the show?
Speaker A:Yeah, we did have that on the show.
Speaker B:That was so cool.
Speaker A:Yeah, I almost got those.
Speaker A:I'm glad I didn't, because he sold out.
Speaker A:But there's also a third problem for the Fed.
Speaker A:So now you got inflation, gross domestic product, that are both going to go the way, the other way.
Speaker A:I mean, this is not, hey, hypothetically.
Speaker A:No, that's going to happen.
Speaker B:And why you need to care about that is because we've been fighting this inflation problem for a long time.
Speaker B:Jerome Powell and the FOMC have said we're gonna keep rates higher for longer, AKA making it more expensive for us, for all the things that we want to do, we want to buy.
Speaker B:Also limit how fast companies want to continue to grow, slowing economic growth.
Speaker A:And this is all before tariffs were even announced.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:If, if you were one of those companies that this year didn't get a bonus, let's just say it's going to get, it's going to get harder to get one next year.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Because it's, it's going to be eating into profit margins even more.
Speaker B:So these are things that.
Speaker B:This is why these things are such a big deal.
Speaker A:And the trifecta of problems here, the pyramid, if you will, of problems.
Speaker B:You just hold the rock.
Speaker A:The rock?
Speaker A:Yeah, the pyramid of problems.
Speaker A:Well, the last one is jobs.
Speaker A:Unemployment will rise because guess what?
Speaker A:The government is laying off employees through vis a vis doge.
Speaker A:That's happening.
Speaker A:But these companies are now going to work to be more streamlined and efficient from a cost perspective.
Speaker A:And efficiency in companies typically means reducing the size of their force of labor force.
Speaker A:So you can expect that to happen.
Speaker A:And you're already seeing it.
Speaker A:I think I saw Starbucks was laying people off.
Speaker A:I saw.
Speaker A:Who was it?
Speaker B:I saw Disney's laying people off to streamline the process.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:So a lot of these companies are gonna say, okay, look, we need to be more efficient.
Speaker A:Okay, everything's gonna cost us a little bit more.
Speaker A:We can pass some of that on to the consumer.
Speaker A:But a lot of these companies are really technically savvy.
Speaker A:So if you're Apple, you don't just price a phone at 700 bucks.
Speaker A:You got a lot of market research behind that.
Speaker A:And you know what the consumer is willing to pay for your product.
Speaker A:And you know, in order to raise the prices, it has to be incremental over time, otherwise you're going to just deter people and they're going to go straight to Samsung.
Speaker B:Right, Very true.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:So they know that they can raise prices a little bit due to tariffs, but it won't be near term.
Speaker A:It has to be A little bit longer of a game.
Speaker A:So how do you maintain profitability while your cost today, your import, export cost today is going to go up literally the day these tariffs are announced?
Speaker B:It would be, it actually would be pretty interesting to see which companies that are, I guess, have a bigger market share of customers in their industry that maybe absorb this just to gain more market share during this time while other companies are forced to go down.
Speaker B:I mean, this was, this was Amazon's business model for the longest time.
Speaker B:Yeah, right.
Speaker B:Literally we'll just do it and sell it way cheaper than everyone, take a loss, have everyone come here, everyone else fails, and now we have the entire market share.
Speaker A:This was LendingTree's model for the broker community for a long time.
Speaker A:They were doing loans at, damn near break even because they could do loans at bargain barrel pricing, take up all the volume, take basically suck all the air out of the environment.
Speaker A:All these small mom and pop real estate brokers would die out and then when they were gone, there was less competition and they could start charging more reasonable prices and they'd make all the money.
Speaker A:Yeah, and they worked.
Speaker A:It worked.
Speaker A:It worked exceptionally well.
Speaker A:Shout out to Anthony Shea.
Speaker A:He's retired now, but he was crushing it for the longest time.
Speaker A:So let's talk about sector specific effects.
Speaker A:We're talking a little bit, you know, fluffy and oh yeah, let's do it cerebrally, if you will.
Speaker A:But there are some sector specific effects.
Speaker A:Let's talk about China first.
Speaker A:China, right.
Speaker A:How'd I do?
Speaker B:Good, Very good.
Speaker A:An analyst by the nonpartisan Tax foundation found that tariffs now imposed on three countries would amount to an average tax increase of $1,072 per US household.
Speaker A:So you know that $5,000 they told us they were going to send us, but we both know they're never going to send us.
Speaker A:Yeah, the savings from the government efficiency work.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:Well, I mean, 20 of that is already gone right there.
Speaker B:Exactly.
Speaker A:So the U.S.
Speaker A:imports a lot from China, as we all know, because guess what happened, not a secret.
Speaker A:Years and years and years ago, we decided that we were going to take all this menial work and we were going to pass it off manufacturing work, we're going to pass it off the Chinese because Americans are going to be smarter, more intelligent, more creative, more creative, more mentally focused, less physically focused, innovative.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Did not happen.
Speaker A:And, well.
Speaker A:So Trump's 20% tariffs could hit more than $450 billion worth of imports from China.
Speaker A:Just China.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's a lot.
Speaker A:The tariffs Trump imposed during his first term were more Targeted this time around, more Americans will feel the impact.
Speaker A:Among the imports affected are a whole slew of consumer goods, including footwear, toys, video game consoles and electronics.
Speaker B:Okay, so speaking on that electronics piece, we got the CEO of Best Buy who came out and had a few words to say about the tariffs from China.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:55% of their products are sourced from China in some way or another.
Speaker A:Yeah, I'm actually shocked that it's that low.
Speaker B:Yeah, right.
Speaker B:Yeah, 55%, 20% are from Mexico.
Speaker B:Best Buy expects the impacts to be felt in Q2, 3 and 4 of.
Speaker A:This year, which for clarity, Q2 is next month.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's beginning next month.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:So for Best Buy products, okay, maybe it gets pushed out a little bit.
Speaker B:Maybe you can, you know, exercise a little bit of restraint and not go buy the fancy new model of something that you want to buy.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Hopefully that's the case.
Speaker B:Now, Target, on the other hand, because this stuff's going to impact the consumer goods.
Speaker B:Like, you know, your, your food, Food.
Speaker A:Is going to, you're going to feel, you're going to feel it in the food checkout lines immediately.
Speaker B:Immediately.
Speaker A:Because keep in mind your shelf life for like, like fresh produce, right?
Speaker A:It's like a week or two.
Speaker A:So they're going to import new produce to the harbors, which makes its way to your stores literally in a couple of weeks.
Speaker B:And that's just, and that's just us.
Speaker B:And I, I want to also think about.
Speaker B:You got to also, in this context, when it comes to food, think about these other countries that we're exporting food to.
Speaker B:Like.
Speaker B:Okay, I get it.
Speaker B:They're.
Speaker B:They're not, they're Canadian citizens, let's say, right?
Speaker B:They're not us, but you.
Speaker B:We should still care about them at the end of.
Speaker B:They can't.
Speaker B:They don't have the climate to grow their own stuff.
Speaker B:So that's the, that's the shitty part.
Speaker A:I did not.
Speaker B:Bad words.
Speaker A:Minus one flagging, bro.
Speaker B:Come on, beep it.
Speaker B:We got the timer.
Speaker A:I can't believe it.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's the, that's the bad part.
Speaker A:That's the poopy part.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's the not so fun part.
Speaker B:They don't have the climate and you got to feel bad for them.
Speaker A:Yeah, look, I feel bad for everybody who's going to have increased costs.
Speaker A:People were already stretched thin.
Speaker A:Consumer discretionary spending's already coming down.
Speaker A:We got the highest non household debt in history.
Speaker A:The highest household debt in history.
Speaker A:People were already stretched thin.
Speaker A:This is not good.
Speaker A:And keep in mind, with Inflation.
Speaker A:We've already said that most of us are paying somewhere between 20, 25% more for the exact same lifestyle we had four or five years ago.
Speaker A:Yeah, because we have not seen a deflationary.
Speaker A:We've seen.
Speaker A:We have seen disinflation where inflation has come down, but it's still growing.
Speaker A:But we've not seen a deflationary economy where inflation is actually going the other way.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:So, unfortunately, people are paying about 20, 25% more now.
Speaker A:Now you're going to lay on tariffs, layer on tariffs of 20 to 25% more.
Speaker A:It's going to be expensive.
Speaker A:So let's get into this.
Speaker A:The tax foundation I talked about earlier, they estimated that tariffs on Chinese goods will add 329 doll per US household annually.
Speaker A:That's just China.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:This doesn't include Mexico and Canada.
Speaker A:And there's no exception for Apple this time, unlike Trump's first term.
Speaker A:Trump's first term, he said, you know what, Apple, you guys are good.
Speaker A:You're Gucci, import expert all you want.
Speaker A:You guys are.
Speaker A:You guys are good.
Speaker B:You guys are fine.
Speaker B:Yeah, especially because you, you know, you're helping out the cause here.
Speaker A:Yeah, just throw me a free iPhone 17 when it comes out.
Speaker B:You know, come on, Tim.
Speaker A:We'll work it out, Timmy.
Speaker A:Well, so iPhones, iPads, tablets, laptops, and all of that from Apple would now be hit, which is kind of a big escalation compared to how consumer goods were shielded from most of the first trade wars.
Speaker A:Tariffs, Erica York, vice president of the Federal Tax Policy at the Tax foundation, told NPR last month.
Speaker A:Does this mean that Apple will now raise the price of iPhones by 20% due to 20% tariffs on goods from China?
Speaker A:Not necessarily.
Speaker A:Remember how I talked about earlier, how they can't just unilaterally raise the price?
Speaker A:It's not quite so simple because they're much more sophisticated.
Speaker A:On food, you can pretty much expect it to be right away unilateral.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:On electronics, not so much.
Speaker A:For one thing, importers pay a tariff based on the cost of the price of the item, not the full retail price.
Speaker A:So if it cost Apple 100 bucks per iPhone to make, then the tariff is about 20 bucks per iPhone, which is not a full 20% increase from the retail price.
Speaker A:It's more like a couple percentage points.
Speaker A:Okay, so not quite so unilateral.
Speaker A:So a little bit of hysteria off there.
Speaker A:And Apple might try to pump or ramp up its production in other countries like India, which ironically and shockingly has not been talked about in the trade War.
Speaker B:Interesting.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:Yeah, I know, I know.
Speaker B:They.
Speaker B:We do a lot with them as far as medicine goes.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, sure.
Speaker A:You know, obviously not one of our three largest trade partners, but certainly there's a lot manufactured in India and Pakistan.
Speaker A:Or Pakistan, if you prefer the right language.
Speaker A:I got you that.
Speaker B:I'm impressed.
Speaker A:Thank you.
Speaker A:I got you.
Speaker B:Yeah, I know the Pakistani listeners will appreciate that.
Speaker A:Trying to respect my peoples, bro.
Speaker A:Yeah, there you go.
Speaker B:There you go.
Speaker A:So.
Speaker A:Or it could decide to eat the cost of the tariffs entirely, meaning Apple, especially since competitor Samsung produces many of its phones in South Korea or Vietnam and won't feel the same blow.
Speaker A:So think that through.
Speaker A:If you're a South Korean company and you manufacture your products in Vietnam, okay.
Speaker A:And you import your products from Vietnam or South Korea to the United States, right now, none of this impacts you, but Apple will be impacted because a lot of its suppliers are from China.
Speaker A:So now Samsung's going like, aha.
Speaker B:I got it.
Speaker A:I got you.
Speaker B:This is it.
Speaker B:This is our time.
Speaker A:Take over, bro.
Speaker A:Make that folding iPhone.
Speaker A:I dare you.
Speaker A:Yeah, I mean, it's.
Speaker A:It's a big deal.
Speaker A:So there's lots of idiosyncratic things here that could wind up benefiting one company or another for reasons that are frankly unclear.
Speaker A:Why are we.
Speaker A:Why are we not just tariffing everybody?
Speaker A:Why are we picking our three largest trade partners?
Speaker A:Because we want to bring business back here.
Speaker A:That's out there.
Speaker B:It's concerning.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:It just seems.
Speaker A:It seems a little directed.
Speaker A:That's all I'm saying.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:I'm not saying anything malicious or nefarious.
Speaker A:I'm just saying, you know, I would like to get a little more clarity as to how somebody made the decision.
Speaker A:That's all I'm saying.
Speaker A:So.
Speaker A:But even if Americans don't see an increase in the actual sticker price of an item, there is still pain being inflicted in the US Economy.
Speaker A:It means incomes and returns to shareholders in the U.S.
Speaker A:economy are lower instead.
Speaker A:Because if businesses have to eat those higher costs, it means they have less to pay their workers, says York.
Speaker A:It means they have less to hire and expand employment or less to invest.
Speaker A:So no matter what channel the price impact takes, it's Americans who are hurt by the tariffs.
Speaker B:Yeah, I mean, we do definitely get hurt, but like I said, like I said, the big key takeaway is in the way it's being presented.
Speaker B:Okay?
Speaker B:It'll bring us more revenue, it'll create more jobs, it'll help out American businesses.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:All things that sound really great and.
Speaker B:But the huge misconception is we're the big country.
Speaker B:We're the big dog in the play yard.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So we can do what we want.
Speaker B:We can suffer a little bit of blow for now.
Speaker B:We know you can't.
Speaker B:And ultimately we're going to come out on top.
Speaker A:But do we really think we can suffer that kind of blow right now?
Speaker A:I mean, no.
Speaker A:Jerome Powell here, he'd be like, no, no, no.
Speaker A:What are you doing?
Speaker B:No, we cannot.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:But here's the problem.
Speaker B:Like I said earlier, the pain is not a zero sum game and it's not asymmetrical.
Speaker A:Well, he's throwing all these SAT vocabularies at me like I know what you're talking about.
Speaker B:It's just not going.
Speaker A:I'll go ahead and assume you insulted, bro.
Speaker B:You're not going to just be able to inflict the pain on them.
Speaker B:It's going to come back.
Speaker A:You're asymmetrical.
Speaker B:I am asymmetrical.
Speaker A:Thanks, Cesar.
Speaker B:Cesar.
Speaker B:That's the new term, bro.
Speaker B:It's Cesar.
Speaker A:Wacko.
Speaker A:Cesar, no.
Speaker A:You went to law school.
Speaker A:You got no excuse.
Speaker A:I know you know this.
Speaker A:So for Mexico, the tariffs on Mexican imports will cost the average U.S.
Speaker A:household $435 per year.
Speaker A:Ask me why.
Speaker B:Why?
Speaker A:Because fresh produce, groceries you buy more often than not come from Mexico.
Speaker A:Everybody's got to eat.
Speaker A:That's where you're going to feel it the most.
Speaker A:We don't have to buy electronics all the time that come from China.
Speaker B:People want to give up their freshly squeezed orange juice, bro.
Speaker A:We cover.
Speaker A:This is why I don't drink juice.
Speaker B:This is why.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:This is why.
Speaker A:Monsters only.
Speaker A:You thought I was crazy.
Speaker B:I win.
Speaker A:I'm basically a modern day Einstein.
Speaker A:That's all I'm saying.
Speaker A:You know what I mean?
Speaker A:I've figured out a way to never drink water again.
Speaker B:I mean, that'd be some dark humor, right?
Speaker B:For monster to release a beverage labeled.
Speaker A:Terror free, sugar free, and terror free named Orange juice.
Speaker B:Get your new orange juice.
Speaker A:Modern day orange juice.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, I got you.
Speaker B:Oh, it's so good.
Speaker A:So, unfortunately for us, that's a big number.
Speaker A:And according to the tax foundation, again, tariffs on Canadian importance, meanwhile, will cost the average U.S.
Speaker A:household $309 per year.
Speaker A:So 435, 309, 329.
Speaker A:You wind up at $1,072 in just those three countries alone having tariffs.
Speaker A:That's a lot for most American citizens.
Speaker A:But let's talk about fresh produce.
Speaker A:Let's talk about cars and gas prices.
Speaker A:Let's talk about Construction materials, because all three of them are going to be impacted lumber.
Speaker A:Somebody's got to lay some wood.
Speaker A:And as a guy who's been laying a lot of wood lately.
Speaker A:Okay, you've been laying wood, framing the studio up.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:Drywalling some work.
Speaker A:I can tell you I have felt the pain of the cost of lumber.
Speaker B:Okay, I got it.
Speaker B:It's.
Speaker B:It's expensive, man.
Speaker A:It hurts.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:When you lay wood as much as I do.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Not.
Speaker B:Not doing this with you.
Speaker A:Honestly, the two by sixes were much more expensive than the two by fours.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:The bigger ones, the beams.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker A:It was shocking how much more expensive they were.
Speaker B:Yeah, they gotta, they gotta start making these homes that you can't even make them steel framed.
Speaker A:Actually.
Speaker A:You know, Europe does that.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Like most, most countries outside the United States don't use wood frame anymore.
Speaker A:They use steel frame.
Speaker A:We have steel frame in the US for commercial.
Speaker B:What's the thought?
Speaker B:I know, but what's the thought process behind that?
Speaker A:Durability.
Speaker A:It's much more durable.
Speaker A:You know, wood can, you know, basically crack in half.
Speaker A:Metal tends to not do that.
Speaker A:But if you're a commercial building, that's why you require metal.
Speaker A:But we've just had a history of doing things and a lot of people don't change that.
Speaker A:So for example, there's a lot of things with the commercial building code which are like, you have to have metal around your pipes.
Speaker A:So you use conduit, or you could use the hard metal rod, or you can use a flexible metal encasing and you run your wires through that.
Speaker A:So if your wires catch on fire, they're inside a metal tube.
Speaker A:Basically.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:So you're fine, you're protected, you're more fire protected.
Speaker A:But in the US and residential, you just run wire in the wall.
Speaker A:I mean, it's got, you know, some, some insulation around it, but it's not metal.
Speaker B:But you, but you could do it here if you wanted to.
Speaker B:It's just more expensive that way.
Speaker B:What do you mean to run it through a metal conduit?
Speaker A:Oh, yeah, you.
Speaker A:Nobody would do that in the residential setting.
Speaker A:It's just more expensive.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:The electrician that I had install my level two car charger.
Speaker A:Oh yeah.
Speaker A:You run those through a conduit.
Speaker B:Use a metal conduit.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Because those are 220 volt.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:So not that I do this for a living every once in a while, you know.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Ironically, out of all the things we've done in the new studio space, the pony wall, the framing, the Drywall, the insulation, which, God, you got the vernacular down to.
Speaker B:You sound like you could really sell this thing.
Speaker A:What?
Speaker B:You're actual contractor.
Speaker A:I mean, it's good.
Speaker A:It's good lie, right?
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:The best kind of lie.
Speaker B:It's good.
Speaker A:Those leds have been the death of me because.
Speaker A:Yeah, it's supposed to be.
Speaker A:I.
Speaker A:I'm an idiot.
Speaker A:So I got.
Speaker B:It looks so cool, though.
Speaker A:You think it looks that cool?
Speaker B:I think it does.
Speaker B:You walk.
Speaker B:You walk in and you've posted it, right?
Speaker A:Yeah, people seen it.
Speaker B:You.
Speaker B:You walk in, and it literally, like you said, it's like the batcave.
Speaker A:It does have that.
Speaker A:And it highlights the green in the front room real nice.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:Which, by the way, the room, when you walk in the light.
Speaker B:I can't wait for the listeners or the viewers to see it.
Speaker A:So what I want to do is I want to put a TV on the wall on the left.
Speaker A:I want it to be like a grass wall.
Speaker A:On the right, I want it to be like a concrete wall.
Speaker A:So the only thing that's gonna be green is kind of the outline of the door.
Speaker B:But you want to sit on the couch and just.
Speaker B:And just feel the grass wall, rub the fuzzy.
Speaker A:Wall, rub the fuzzy.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:But, yeah, I got lots of fun, but none of that stuff will happen right away.
Speaker A:It's just I'm not spending any more money in this space for a while.
Speaker A:All right, so let's talk fresh produce real quick.
Speaker A:We got a lot to get through and not a whole lot of show left, But I promise you the crescendo.
Speaker A:It's worth it.
Speaker B:Okay?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:So stay tuned for the music at the end.
Speaker A:It's beautiful.
Speaker A:All right, so fresh produce.
Speaker A: In: Speaker A:S.
Speaker A:Vegetable imports and about half of the u.
Speaker A:S.
Speaker A:Fruit and tree nut imports, according to u.
Speaker A:S.
Speaker A:Agricultural department.
Speaker A:So expect everything to be more expensive.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:That's just real.
Speaker B:Every.
Speaker B:Like.
Speaker B:Yeah, what's this?
Speaker B:What's the substitute?
Speaker B:And the pitches that.
Speaker B:Oh.
Speaker B:Consumers will substitute certain items for other items.
Speaker B:We're talking about two thirds, man.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Tariffs mean prices for those groceries may and will rise.
Speaker A:Not.
Speaker A:Not may.
Speaker A:They will rise.
Speaker A:Including for imported tomatoes, raspberries, bell peppers, and strawberries, Given that Mexico is the leading supplier of each of them.
Speaker B:Also.
Speaker B:Also making a very strong case why the fomc likes to exclude food and energy.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:From their.
Speaker B:From their inflation.
Speaker A:Ding.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And then there are avocados.
Speaker A:You like guacamole?
Speaker A:Side.
Speaker B:Not anymore.
Speaker A:Can't afford it.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:90% of the avocados consumed the United States come from Mexico, so expect to pay a lot more for those bad boys.
Speaker B:Yeah, I feel like spinach artichoke is going to have to.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Every Mexican restaurant you've ever gone to in order to bowl of guacamole is now a high end treat.
Speaker B:What's that?
Speaker B:You buy avocados on the regular.
Speaker B:No, no, you can never time it.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:I.
Speaker A:First of all, you know, it's.
Speaker B:It's always like, wait, wait, wait.
Speaker B:And then I'm.
Speaker B:Every time I want to use it.
Speaker B:Oh, too late.
Speaker A:I don't fully understand the squeezing.
Speaker B:What do you mean?
Speaker A:I don't.
Speaker A:I don't understand.
Speaker B:No, to predict, like four days out is really hard.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:But I can predict, like the next day pretty good.
Speaker A:You're never gonna eat one the next day.
Speaker A:You're gonna eat it that night when you get home.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:Or you're not gonna eat at all because by the time you get to it, it's gonna be wrong.
Speaker B:That's rough.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:It's not good.
Speaker A:Avocados are tricky.
Speaker B:Mm.
Speaker A:It's okay.
Speaker A:We can't afford them now anyway.
Speaker A:It's also winter when more of the produce consumed.
Speaker A:The United States comes from Mexico because their climate's a little more stable.
Speaker A:So tomatoes are a crop the US Produces a lot of in the summer, but not so much in the winter.
Speaker A:So your imported tomatoes will cost more too.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Notice a recurring theme here.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:All right.
Speaker A:Cars and gas prices.
Speaker A:Shall we?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:But you thought those were not going to be that bad.
Speaker A:Well, you'd be wrong.
Speaker A:Okay, so North American car production is highly integrated among the U.S.
Speaker A:mexico and Canada.
Speaker A:Parts go back and forth between the countries throughout the production process.
Speaker A:So you're going to pay tariffs when parts go there, Right?
Speaker A:When parts come back across, double.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Double whammy back over there for assembly.
Speaker A:When the cars come back across, triple, quadruple whammies.
Speaker A:Multiple whammies.
Speaker A:Everybody's getting whammied.
Speaker A:It's a whammy party because parts will go over there, get assembled for just that piece, come back over, get some work done, go back over, be put on a car.
Speaker B:Didn't we?
Speaker B:Didn't we.
Speaker B:The last time we.
Speaker B:We had a.
Speaker B:An episode on.
Speaker B:On new cars, used cars and prices.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:I think the average price of a new car was like 48 grand.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:What's that going to be like now?
Speaker A:It's going to go up.
Speaker B:Oh, my God.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And these things aren't made to last anymore.
Speaker A:You were like in the 60s and 70s where every model year they had a new model that came out.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Now they hold models like three, four years, five years, six years.
Speaker A:You know, they keep them the same because I can, you know, mass produce them a little better.
Speaker B:Right, I know that.
Speaker B:And I gotta, I got that promo for the Model 3, which 1 0%.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:It's hard.
Speaker A:It's hard to argue the promo, man.
Speaker B:You know what I mean?
Speaker A:I got one for the cybertruck for unlimited charge supercharging on it.
Speaker A:And you know, I've been waiting for that.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:I didn't, I didn't want to tell my wife because she can't park that in the garage anyway.
Speaker B:That's going to be tough.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:If it was a Model X, we'd probably do it.
Speaker A:So as NPR has reported.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:You like that news outlet, huh?
Speaker A:NPR can be good from time to time.
Speaker A:It's usually boring, but every once in a while.
Speaker B:Used to be in my go to on the way to work.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:The tariffs are likely to raise costs on vehicles like the Toyota Tacoma which is imported from Mexico and the Chrysler Pacifica which is imported from Canada.
Speaker A:Cars assembled in the United States would also see their prices rise as many of their parts are sourced from companies in Canada and or Mexico.
Speaker A:Analysts at investment bank Jefferies shout out to Jeffries.
Speaker A:Lots of friends over there.
Speaker A:Love you guys.
Speaker B:Me too.
Speaker A:Estimate that the proposed tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China would add about 6% or $2,700 to the average US vehicle.
Speaker A:So now if you're the average US citizen and you buy the average US.
Speaker B:Car, average US citizen makes how much per year?
Speaker B:60 grand?
Speaker B:70 grand?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:You're now going to be spending approximately $1,072 more on just living.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:And you're going to be spending now $2,700 on that new car.
Speaker A:So your, your whole life expense went up $3,700 if you buy a new car.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Meanwhile, I bet you majority of these people did not get a pay increase last year.
Speaker A:That's right.
Speaker A:Construction materials.
Speaker A:You want to talk about construction materials?
Speaker A:Since we're doing a little bit of construction on our own here.
Speaker A:The US is struggling with a housing shortage as of, as of right now.
Speaker A:You may not have heard.
Speaker B:Yeah, I've heard.
Speaker B:I've seen it.
Speaker A:You may have talked about that a couple shows, like every show for the last two years, maybe a little bit.
Speaker A:Well, I would say we have a problem.
Speaker A:And the new housing is expensive to build.
Speaker B:Oh my God.
Speaker B:I have a whole Topic about this to bring up that I've have had happened to me and witnessed in real time at my kids public school that I feel like it's worth mentioning on.
Speaker A:The show and somehow housing brought this up.
Speaker B:Housing brought this up.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:With what's going on with housing shortage.
Speaker B:This is, this is worth listening to.
Speaker B:I know we're late in the show.
Speaker A:No, no, it's fine.
Speaker B:So recently, this past week, this mind you, we bought our house where we did because the school at the time when we bought it, super close.
Speaker B:Super close.
Speaker B:10 out of 10, blue ribbon.
Speaker B:Meaning I didn't even know what this meant.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:On the presidential list.
Speaker A:So is it not that way now?
Speaker B:No, now it's an eight out of ten.
Speaker B:Really drop like that in just a span of two, three years.
Speaker B:Okay, what did you do now?
Speaker B:Now I'll say this.
Speaker B:It does make me feel a little bit better about schools that are rated at 8 out of 10 because I'm so like involved the school that I know what's going on like, okay, this is not really an 8 out of 10 school.
Speaker B:I don't know what's going into this rating.
Speaker B:This is actually much higher.
Speaker B:But what happened this week, this past week, all the moms are in uproar.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:They don't have a librarian right now.
Speaker B:The librarian was out on maternity leave.
Speaker B:The substitute librarian came in, was on maternity, now is also on maternity leave.
Speaker B:And they don't have another one to.
Speaker A:Put in place as librarians.
Speaker A:We have babies.
Speaker A:Huh.
Speaker B:I'm saying.
Speaker B:And people are freaking out.
Speaker B:Problem number one, Problem number two, no PE teachers.
Speaker A:How do you not have a PE teacher?
Speaker B:They don't have a.
Speaker B:They don't have any PE teachers right now.
Speaker B:So they're freaking out.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:So the problem is.
Speaker B:And also, you know, a lot of, a lot of the funding that the school gets has to do with attendance, Right?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And how many kids are enrollments and how many kids are coming to the school.
Speaker B:So apparently I found out that enrollment is way down.
Speaker B:And what it's being attributed to mainly is people that have bought homes in those areas that had young kids have now grown up and are no longer in the school and they haven't moved out and they haven't moved elsewhere.
Speaker B:So new families aren't coming in.
Speaker A:Yeah, there's a whole ecosystem.
Speaker B:So the school is not.
Speaker B:So the school's not getting the funding it needs anymore because in large part because of this.
Speaker A:So I had a conversation with two of some of the most prominent recruiters in Southern California and we Were talking in general about, you know, some of the age trends that they're seeing.
Speaker A:It was more like a casual conversation, like, hey, what do you see in the market?
Speaker A:Blah, blah, blah.
Speaker A:We were thinking about using them for some from people that we want to search for.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And they were saying that there is a trend that is very palpable where they're seeing people who would normally be of retirement age who are no longer retiring.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And it's not because they need the money.
Speaker A:It's because they're living a higher quality of life.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:For longer.
Speaker A:So it's, it's a, it's created a very different ambiance.
Speaker A:And because of like this hustle culture, like work, ego, where I am a banker, I am a lawyer, I'm a doctor.
Speaker A:They're so ingratiated into this Persona.
Speaker B:It's so much of their personality that.
Speaker A:They can't leave it.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So people can easily see that people.
Speaker A:Keep working to keep doing these things.
Speaker A:And as a result of.
Speaker A:I mean, look, I'll.
Speaker A:I'm all for living longer, working longer.
Speaker A:I love work.
Speaker A:I love being active, I love being engaged.
Speaker A:Keeps you sharp, keeps you sharp, keeps you practiced.
Speaker A:Not a knock on anybody wants to work.
Speaker A:But there are ramifications to this change in American culture.
Speaker B:Absolutely.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:If everybody used to retire at 65, take a pension and roll on and they're not doing that now, and they're working in their 70s and they're fully functional and capable of doing it, there are going to be trickle down ramifications.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:But their mindset is not my problem.
Speaker A:But.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:I mean, why would they care?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:I mean, look no further.
Speaker B:Look no further than, you know, who, who, who's been running for president and who is the president?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:I mean.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:I mean, I think I've said it before on this show, like Bill Clinton, who was president over 20 years ago.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Is younger than our current president.
Speaker A:I know.
Speaker B:Right now.
Speaker B:Which is wild to think about.
Speaker A:Wild.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:You know what I mean?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:J.D.
Speaker A:vance, man.
Speaker A:The homie got a job though.
Speaker B:He got it.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:You see him going in on Zelensky.
Speaker B:Yo.
Speaker B:The ME, bitch.
Speaker B:Oh, yeah.
Speaker B:I don't even know.
Speaker A:He came in the back door and was like, you could just say thank you to America, bro.
Speaker B:That's wild.
Speaker A:Why don't you say thank you?
Speaker A:I haven't said.
Speaker A:You have said a positive thing about America yet.
Speaker B:Why?
Speaker A:Why?
Speaker B:This is not the venue.
Speaker A:JD Came hard.
Speaker B:That was so, like too much.
Speaker A:You gave him the Vance.
Speaker B:Too much.
Speaker B:By the Way.
Speaker B:These some of my favorite meme pages on.
Speaker B:On the gram.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Are.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Politic Politics.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:Of course they are.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And Wall.
Speaker B:And Wall street meme pages, they're all.
Speaker A:They'Re all Wall street meme pages are my favorite.
Speaker B:Yeah, they're the best.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:But the, the politics one that came up today, I actually have it.
Speaker B:I have, I've just been sitting here that I had to read.
Speaker B:I.
Speaker B:The best part about the Internet is that it keeps receipts.
Speaker A:It does keep receipts.
Speaker B:And when people post the receipts.
Speaker B:That's the best part.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:I got to say, people have to.
Speaker B:I want people to have to answer to the receipts.
Speaker A:I heard about a job that involves this that I got to tell you about afterwards.
Speaker A:Go ahead.
Speaker B:So this right here, somebody pulled up the receipt of D.J.
Speaker B: ,: Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:If the Dow drops 1,000 points in two days, the President should be impeached immediately.
Speaker A:The last two days weren't so good for you, chief.
Speaker B:The Dow tumbles again.
Speaker B: Loses more than: Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Answer, bro.
Speaker B:The Dow, that's in large part due to your tariffs.
Speaker A:My favorite, my favorite way of looking at the Dow is you put an end on the end of it.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And that's what you got today.
Speaker A:It went down.
Speaker A:So I was talking to an attorney friend today.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And I was in the office and, you know, we were.
Speaker A:And for reasons that I can't get into, we were talking about, you know, hey, I gotta see what's on someone's social media page.
Speaker B:Okay, gotcha.
Speaker A:And he's like, oh, you know, there's a firm I can refer you to.
Speaker A:I'm sorry, what?
Speaker B:A firm?
Speaker A:Yeah, he's like, we use them all the time.
Speaker A:He's like, think about, like, think about it as like a digital private investigator.
Speaker B:So I call because the account's private, you mean?
Speaker A:Yeah, the account's private.
Speaker A:So I call.
Speaker A:And this company specializes in.
Speaker A:They keep receipts, so.
Speaker A:And he didn't explain the entire process, but I, I kind of assume that what he does is he creates an account that he knows you're likely to accept a follow request from.
Speaker B:Oh.
Speaker A:And keeps it innocuous and high level.
Speaker A:But his whole job is to spy on you for whoever is requesting the information.
Speaker B:That is wild.
Speaker A:And you think about if you have a private account, most people will accept.
Speaker A:So what he went, he went to the detail where he went back to like high school, got names about similar ages, and he created like multiple accounts and, and found Photos of people and just create people.
Speaker B:People, people.
Speaker B:Get creative and look.
Speaker B:Look what?
Speaker B:Look what you can start.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's a.
Speaker B:That's a wild business.
Speaker A:We got to do that for a living.
Speaker A:What are we doing?
Speaker B:I feel like we would be really good at it.
Speaker A:We would be really good and really petty.
Speaker A:Very petty.
Speaker B:Like, you know what this reminds me of?
Speaker B:This reminds me of that Norm MacDonald movie Dirty Work.
Speaker A:Great movie.
Speaker B:Great.
Speaker A:One of the great rip, Norm.
Speaker B:Yeah, I met him at an airport.
Speaker A:He's.
Speaker B:He's just as cool as you think he is, if not more.
Speaker A:Was.
Speaker B:Was.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Nobody.
Speaker A:Nobody's put some respect on my name, Saeed.
Speaker A:He would ever get somebody in here that mad at us.
Speaker B:What's the respect?
Speaker B:Well, that'd be a dream that come out on top.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Somebody be that mad at us.
Speaker B:Grand opening, grand closing.
Speaker A:Getting your fight in the new studio at the drywall again.
Speaker A:Yeah, drywall I can do, just not the LEDs.
Speaker A:I never want to do LEDs again in my life.
Speaker B:Just keep some spare drywall in case we need to use it for self defense.
Speaker A:Did you see it in there?
Speaker A:It's in there.
Speaker A:We can do have a SmackDown WWE style.
Speaker A:All right, so construction materials are a problem.
Speaker A:Tariffs on building materials will make home building even more expensive.
Speaker A:The national association of Home Builders, who always has a comment here, well, they warned for over 70% of the imports of two essential building materials, softwood, lumber and gypsum.
Speaker A:Used to make drywall come from Canada and Mexico respectively.
Speaker A:So guess what, kids?
Speaker A:All those costs are going up too.
Speaker A:Oh, my God.
Speaker A:So expensive.
Speaker B:I mean, yeah, you're not going to build your own home anytime soon.
Speaker A:So Saeed and I, I've only got one more article, but I do want to give you a shout out and kudos here.
Speaker B:Me?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Far and few in between.
Speaker A:Look, I've got to get you the laureate.
Speaker A:This is how I get you the Nobel.
Speaker A:I got to keep complimenting you.
Speaker B:You're lobbying.
Speaker A:About a year and a half ago, you started talking about stagflation.
Speaker B:Oh, yeah.
Speaker A:Where it's a combination of stagnant economic growth and high inflation and a rise in unemployment.
Speaker A:Everything we just described to you talks about stagnant economic growth, if not weakening economic growth in the form of gdp, high inflation.
Speaker A:Well, it's got only one direction to go now.
Speaker A:Yes, we know it's going to go up.
Speaker A:Okay?
Speaker A:And well, if we have a job problem here, well, that's stagflation, kids.
Speaker B:Yeah, we called it.
Speaker B:I did.
Speaker B:See, I can't remember who it was, but it was someone in the current administration almost knowing that this was going to be a problem.
Speaker B:And they said we also want to relook at how GDP is calculated.
Speaker A:Yeah, you saw that, right?
Speaker A:I don't like that.
Speaker B:I mean, it's.
Speaker A:No, I agree with the fact that it needs to be relooked at.
Speaker A:Relooking at a time where it's going to go the opposite direction seems a little self serving.
Speaker A:It's kind of like a previous administration saying two successive quarters of negative GDP growth is not a recession unless you have negative GDI growth, gross domestic income.
Speaker A:And oh, by the way, you got.
Speaker B:To average the two.
Speaker A:You got to ignore all the stimulus checks we passed everybody to make that GDI positive.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:Ignore that.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:Don't look at that.
Speaker A:Exactly.
Speaker A:That's not part of the definition, Saeed.
Speaker B:Yeah, it's.
Speaker A:Did it go up or down?
Speaker A:Yeah, nobody cares why it went up.
Speaker B:Yeah, it's like you're.
Speaker B:It's like your boss saying it looks like your production has been down back to back quarters.
Speaker B:You're like, no, you can't look at it like that.
Speaker B:You got to look at it like with everything else too.
Speaker B:You got to average it.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:You got to average the quarters.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:And look, even though my production went down for two quarters, my attendance has been up.
Speaker A:So technically I'm still performing.
Speaker B:I've been performing, I've been here working.
Speaker A:Look at the averages.
Speaker B:Doing work.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Why are you looking at the results?
Speaker B:You start thinking yourself, man.
Speaker A:That's two for two, bro.
Speaker A:Good job, too.
Speaker B:We're getting late in the show, man.
Speaker A:Two poopy bombs in the same show.
Speaker B:10:40.
Speaker A:Would you drink tonight?
Speaker A:You can't drink that anymore.
Speaker B:Celsius.
Speaker A:Celsius.
Speaker A:You can't bring more Celsius.
Speaker B:Come on.
Speaker A:You all hyped up.
Speaker B:Can you flag it?
Speaker A:No, I'm not flagging a damn thing.
Speaker A:You, you like, you.
Speaker A:We have to own it.
Speaker B:It's when I get too excited.
Speaker A:I know.
Speaker A:Look, it looks good on you.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Unfortunately, I'm classier than you.
Speaker B:The energy's there.
Speaker B:Yeah, but you're also.
Speaker B:You're so like Christopher, like scaled back.
Speaker B:It's like, come on, I need to give it a little bit more.
Speaker A:You can put me behind a paywall.
Speaker B:Oh, yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:It'll be expletive field rages.
Speaker B:If you wanted us behind a paywall, let us know in the comment section.
Speaker A:Can't afford it.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:All right.
Speaker A:This last article from Market Watch, will Trump's tariffs push the US Economy into recession.
Speaker A:Many economists think so.
Speaker A:I'm not advocating that it will, but I'm saying a lot of the things we spoke about on this show, just statistically, mathematically, they're not good.
Speaker A:So I'm going to read you some of this article, and it is a little bit lengthy, but it's got some valuable information in it, insights that I would like everybody to take home and think about.
Speaker A:Let it marinate and then drop me a comment.
Speaker A:Hey, man, recession.
Speaker A:Nah.
Speaker A:Hey man, recession.
Speaker A:Yeah, hey man, problems.
Speaker A:Or you know what?
Speaker A:SAE can't control his potty mouth.
Speaker A:Whatever you want to say.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker A:Simulations have been done on the full tariffs against China, Canada and Mexico.
Speaker A:And if you believe them, we'll be in a recession in nine to 12 months.
Speaker A:Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust, said in an interview with MarketWatch.
Speaker A:That's a pretty aggressive stance, Carl.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Greg Dacko can't be funny.
Speaker B:Name.
Speaker A:Chief economist at financial and accounting advisory firm EY, Ernst & Young.
Speaker A:He agreed.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker A:Gotta back his boy up, Carl.
Speaker B:He did.
Speaker A:So, Greg and Carl, they have an opinion on this?
Speaker A:Well, you can't underplay the potential drag on economic damage.
Speaker A:This is a recession for North America, he said.
Speaker A:Just calling it already recession, though, not them hard Rs.
Speaker A:Trump's 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada went into effect on Tuesday.
Speaker A:The US also added an extra 10% tariff on Chinese imports.
Speaker A:The end result is a tax on $1.4 trillion in imports, representing 5% of US gross domestic product, according to DACO.
Speaker A:Brian Bethane or Bethune.
Speaker A:Bethune.
Speaker B:Bethune.
Speaker A:Bethune.
Speaker A: iffs were put in place in the: Speaker B:Yes.
Speaker B:You question Smoot Howley.
Speaker B:How are we going to get one of these professor jobs at one of these universities?
Speaker B:We could be.
Speaker B:This.
Speaker B:This could be us teaching.
Speaker B:We could be in front of a classroom teaching the same thing.
Speaker B:I could have said that to the fine people over at Boston College.
Speaker A:Okay, say.
Speaker A:I don't know how to.
Speaker A:I'm just gonna say it.
Speaker A:All right.
Speaker A:I don't.
Speaker B:I'm a laureate in the making, though.
Speaker A:But you can't do with a potty mouth.
Speaker B:Why they.
Speaker B:No, it resonates with the kids.
Speaker A:Clearly, it worked for Norio Roubini, but then it didn't work.
Speaker A:He's still teaching.
Speaker B:He's still teaching.
Speaker A:He's still teaching in hot tub somewhere by himself.
Speaker B:And you know what's?
Speaker B:What's the, what's the other guy's?
Speaker B:Name?
Speaker B:Is his.
Speaker B:Is that the person who goes up against the most?
Speaker B:Spiegel.
Speaker A:Jeremy Siegel.
Speaker A:Siegel, yeah.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Desert, you know, he.
Speaker B:Desert Eagle.
Speaker B:You, you know, he's got a potty mouth.
Speaker B:Oh.
Speaker A:First the two of them hang out.
Speaker B:Yeah, I know.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:They sip Cognac, smoke cigars.
Speaker B:100.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And talk about the recessions.
Speaker A:So economists believe that those tariffs exasperated the Great Depression by spurring other countries to set up their own trade barriers, leading to a sharp decline in global economic activity.
Speaker A:In response to the Trump administration's actions, Canada and China have already announced retaliatory tariffs.
Speaker A:As we talked about earlier, Mexico said that it would announce in response on Sunday, like we talked about, Bethune said that tariffs will disrupt supply chains and put US manufacturers that have global operations in a very difficult position.
Speaker A:The first thing is there will be an absolute hiring freeze as firms try to figure out how this is going to impact businesses.
Speaker A:So impact on jobs, which will only get worse by the government job cuts you're already seeing.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Which.
Speaker B:Which puts the Fed in a very difficult position.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Bethune said, adding that manufacturers will have to reorganize their production, which they can't do in a day or a week.
Speaker B:Now, time to put a tinfoil hat on, get a little conspiratorial.
Speaker A:Let's get to it.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker B:Let's say this does impact jobs immediately.
Speaker A:I think you've got some pretty significant job impacts coming as it is now already.
Speaker A:It's a bit of a lagging indicator.
Speaker A:I think everything that you've seen is going to be significant.
Speaker A:I know I said last week on the show, and I meant it, that I know a lot of government workers that have taken this buyout.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:I've heard several more since just last week's show to now people that I love, that I've been around for years, that I highly respect.
Speaker B:So are retiring when.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So when the, when the current administration took over, I remember reading multiple articles that said, almost like, understanding we can't force Jerome Powell to do what we want him to do.
Speaker B:So we're going to try to attack the Treasuries.
Speaker B:We're going to try to focus on the Treasuries because the Treasuries will.
Speaker B:The impact rates.
Speaker A:And the Treasuries are down.
Speaker B:And the Treasuries are down.
Speaker A:Mortgage rates as a result of that are also down.
Speaker B:Hard down.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I think I saw 6.19 today or yesterday.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Which I think is a fantastic rate.
Speaker B:By the way, if you can actually get that right.
Speaker B:But doing something like this, imposing the tariffs, that can immediately impact jobs.
Speaker B:The Fed has a dual mandate to protect and give people maximum employment.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's not going to happen.
Speaker B:This is one way to make, to get Jerome to be like, hey, you have a dual mandate, bud.
Speaker B:You have to cut rates.
Speaker A:I don't know how they can do that.
Speaker A:Now, if I'm sitting in the FOMC and I'm not advocating politically, what does.
Speaker B:Unemployment need to get to.
Speaker B:To where Jerome Powell and the FOMC need to be like, ok, look, historically speaking, we're still relatively low, but they have to.
Speaker B:Their job is to try to catch it before it is on a downward spiral and it goes from 5% to 6 to 7 to 8.
Speaker B:Quickly.
Speaker A:There isn't enough consistent data that has come in under the auspice of being data dependent at this particular juncture for I think him or anybody in the FOMC to definitively say that they know that unemployment is going to rise in a meaningful way.
Speaker B:I think that there is, I think them, I think that them.
Speaker A:That's speculative at this point.
Speaker A:You don't have any data that supports.
Speaker B:No, we do, we do.
Speaker B:We've talked about it on this show.
Speaker A:You've got unemployment that, you know, we.
Speaker B:Know the government, we're were propping up jobs and they were the ones skewing the numbers.
Speaker A:You want the bbls?
Speaker B:The bbls?
Speaker B:No, we're government jobs.
Speaker A:But labor statistics.
Speaker B:Yeah, the bls, literally government jobs were propping up all those numbers.
Speaker A:No, no, we, we.
Speaker B:That data is out there.
Speaker A:Yeah, we know that to be true.
Speaker A:So the job numbers, they don't interpret data like that.
Speaker A:They don't go like.
Speaker A:They're not in there going like, oh my God, Neil, look at this.
Speaker A:The government's been propping this up, man.
Speaker B:They know, they know.
Speaker B:If we know, they know.
Speaker A:But that's never, they're never going to dissect that and say if you remove this and you look at the data this way, then the data says this.
Speaker A:So we're going to.
Speaker B:That's sad.
Speaker A:They're going to wait for the headline figure to pivot.
Speaker B:Yeah, they need.
Speaker B:Exactly.
Speaker B:They want the headlines.
Speaker B:And you know, they're really.
Speaker B:What they're ultimately doing and this showcases it more than anything else is they're really just managing the optimism and the pessimism out there.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And that's all they're doing, bro.
Speaker A:Perception becomes a reality.
Speaker A:Robert Shiller's narrative economics the narrative defines how people buy, sell and trade.
Speaker A:If you went out tomorrow and Warren Buffett came out and said, hey, America, buy now.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:He went full Dave Ramsey on America.
Speaker A:Americans would buy.
Speaker A:Oh my God.
Speaker A:Warren Buffett, the single greatest investor alive, you know, spent decades just recreating more and more wealth for all of his investors and himself.
Speaker A:He's telling me to buy, I gotta buy, baby.
Speaker A:It's go time.
Speaker B:Let's go time.
Speaker B:But that's just a narrative time to deploy.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And so many people would take just the word of mouth in and of itself and move on it rather than do their own research.
Speaker A:To go.
Speaker A:Is Warren right here?
Speaker B:Well, we have, we talked about it.
Speaker B:A good chunk of our base, our listener base are people in the real estate market even.
Speaker A:Yeah, a lot of Realtors.
Speaker B:A lot of Realtors, yeah.
Speaker B:How do you see these tariffs ultimately trickling down and impacting them?
Speaker A:Oh, man.
Speaker A:Meaningfully in a lot of ways.
Speaker A:First of all, your, your product price for a home is going to go up.
Speaker A:So if home values go up, even if rates stay where they are today in the 6% range, which I don't believe they will, I think as you get more and more uncertainty, the treasury is going to continue to rise back up.
Speaker A:I think you've seen some incremental down, downward trends in the last couple weeks, but, and you've effectively erased all the growth since probably pre election to now.
Speaker A:So, I mean.
Speaker A:Okay, but I think the Treasury's gonna go back up and I think if you're a real estate agent, you're gonna have some tougher times ahead.
Speaker A:It's gonna be harder to sell a home because it's gonna be hard people to qualify.
Speaker A:Harder to, harder to buy.
Speaker A:And I don't think that that's going to change anytime soon.
Speaker A:And if lumber costs and gypsum costs, you know, sheetrock are going up, then any new construction is going to be impacted in a meaningful way.
Speaker A:Legacy.
Speaker A:You know, existing homes are going to have a tough time being sold because people are now having to pay more for their everyday cost of living because of the tariffs.
Speaker A:So their discretionary disposable income to qualify for a loan is going to be down.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:So yeah, it's going to have a meaningful impact to, to real estate agents.
Speaker A:And then obviously you look at, at their quality of life, they're gonna have to spend more to, I mean, so yeah, there's already been a pretty good exodus from the real estate space because people just can't live.
Speaker A:It's, it's just there's not enough transactions going on right now to consistently support the.
Speaker A:The ether of real estate agents that are out there.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:As a primary gig, right?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I mean, certainly as a look, I think everybody should have real estate license.
Speaker A:I have a broker's license.
Speaker A:I'm a realtor myself.
Speaker A:Do I use it?
Speaker A:Not really.
Speaker A:I use it when I buy a property, which hasn't really happened a whole lot lately.
Speaker A:I've been in the cell trend, which sucks.
Speaker A:Oh, I shouldn't say that.
Speaker A:I bought a property two months ago.
Speaker A:Yeah, I'm a liar.
Speaker A:Never mind.
Speaker A:I'm stupid.
Speaker A:Don't listen to stupid people saying you're not.
Speaker B:You're not on the selling trend, bro.
Speaker B:You sold one.
Speaker B:That's not a trend.
Speaker A:It was really painful for me.
Speaker B:That's not a trend, though.
Speaker A:It was very painful for me.
Speaker B:I get it.
Speaker A:And I.
Speaker A:And I bought this one and.
Speaker A:And I've been remodeling ever since.
Speaker A:This remodel is going to kill me.
Speaker A:But have you seen my knuckles, by the way?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:What's going on?
Speaker A:Because I was trying to cram the stupid light diffuser for the led.
Speaker A:Those leds are the worst decision I ever made.
Speaker A:They look great.
Speaker A:They're super cool and they're cool.
Speaker B:It's what makes the space though.
Speaker A:You haven't seen the stuff I want to do.
Speaker A:Like, I want to put LEDs in the ground and the walls.
Speaker A:Like there's a lot.
Speaker A:And I know so much about LEDs.
Speaker A:I never thought I'd million years.
Speaker B:Now you're gonna go LED overload.
Speaker A:Yeah, dude, I, I know so much about voltage amperage.
Speaker A:You know, I know that for example, a high quality LED can run about 5 meters or 16.4ft before it needs an extra voltage input.
Speaker A:I know that if you have a power source, you should get a power source that can at least have three or four voltage outputs.
Speaker A:Because at first I was like, why would you need like three or four more voltage outputs?
Speaker A:Now I know now, you know, I, I know now that like the.
Speaker A:The highest quality LED strip you can get in the market has 784 LEDs per like, you know, unit cob is circuit on board.
Speaker A:I know way too much about this.
Speaker A:RGB lights are not to be confused with RGBW lights, which has a dedicated white channel, which is lower power outage for the dedicated white channel.
Speaker B:Feel like we need to start our own company.
Speaker A:It's.
Speaker A:Dude, we could do a whole YouTube channel on LEDs alone.
Speaker B:We should.
Speaker A:And don't be stupid like me.
Speaker A:If you ever do an LED project and you buy channels that you're going to drywall permanently into your ceiling?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Get them wider than your LED strip.
Speaker A:I'm like, oh, it's 12 meter, 12 millimeter channel.
Speaker A:I'll get a 12 millimeter light switch.
Speaker A:That would look narrower, but it'll make the ceiling look taller.
Speaker A:I'm like, oh, I'm being artsy.
Speaker A:No, I'm being an idiot.
Speaker A:I am a dumb person.
Speaker A:Because the only way to connect those with connections.
Speaker B:There's not enough YouTube videos on this.
Speaker B:I know you do your deep dive before you actually.
Speaker A:So some fun facts.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:There are no good YouTube videos on H Vac.
Speaker B:Oh, that's right.
Speaker B:You said that.
Speaker B:That's right.
Speaker A:There are very, very little YouTube videos on commercial cons construction.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:I'm lucky in that the space that we're in is grandfathered in building, so it uses wood frame construction.
Speaker A:So I was able to do like the pony wall and the framing with wood frame.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:But there's very little about commercial projects.
Speaker B:Hey, you didn't know that though, until you opened it up, right?
Speaker B:That it was wood framed?
Speaker A:No, I didn't know.
Speaker A:Yeah, I.
Speaker A:I kind of had a feeling.
Speaker B:But got lucky.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:Yeah, I got lucky.
Speaker A:But no insulation between the wood frames.
Speaker A:Can you imagine that?
Speaker A:All these offices in this space.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And it's literally one half inch drywall.
Speaker A:Wood frame, open space, nothing in between, no insulation, and then another half inch drywall.
Speaker A:The walls are 10ft high and they all have drop ceilings that are shared.
Speaker A:So the space next to you can hear everything you're saying with your potty mouth.
Speaker A:We can't have that.
Speaker B:That's the problem.
Speaker A:Yeah, So I had it.
Speaker A:That was.
Speaker B:I did so good last episode.
Speaker B:Then two strikes on this.
Speaker A:You did a good.
Speaker A:Every episode since.
Speaker A:Since we started.
Speaker B:No, we have.
Speaker B:We both.
Speaker B:There was that first one, first episode.
Speaker A:We both slipped up a little bit.
Speaker A:But I mean, that was, you know.
Speaker B:Tariffs got me riled up.
Speaker A:Man, you are a little saucy.
Speaker A:Zesty.
Speaker A:Zesty.
Speaker B:A little salt bay.
Speaker B:Okay, I'll take that.
Speaker A:How long before he shuts down all of his restaurants?
Speaker A:No, like three months.
Speaker B:I remember back in the day.
Speaker B:Is this.
Speaker B:Is that stat still true?
Speaker A:What?
Speaker B:90% of all restaurants fail?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:So true.
Speaker A:They don't feel like immediately, but yeah, I think there's a significant but not that high number of them that fail in the first year.
Speaker A:And then ultimately, like over the course of like 10 years.
Speaker B:So you gotta.
Speaker B:You gotta build it, sell, and get out.
Speaker A:It's really, really hard to run.
Speaker A:So I should say I would carve out that some restaurants, like a pizza place or a donut shop, if you're serving a community with like an essential, like, thing that people get every single day.
Speaker A:Those last long.
Speaker B:That's different.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:But if you're starting a restaurant and you're serving burritos.
Speaker B:We had that great idea, though.
Speaker B:Have a.
Speaker B:Have a restaurant that served burritos of, like, all the different foods out in the world.
Speaker B:Imagine a chicken tikka masala burrito.
Speaker A:Well, I had a chicken bro.
Speaker A:What?
Speaker A:I had a chicken tikka pizza the other day.
Speaker B:Geez.
Speaker A:It was a little salty, but it was fire.
Speaker B:I mean.
Speaker B:I mean, I'm not even the.
Speaker B:The biggest, like, orange chicken fan, but give me an orange chicken burrito.
Speaker B:I'm all in.
Speaker A:They make those.
Speaker A:They have noodles inside of them too.
Speaker A:Look, orange chicken noodles.
Speaker A:And there was, like some veggies inside of it too.
Speaker A:Yeah, I've had one of those.
Speaker B:Amazing.
Speaker A:It was every bit of amazing as you think it was.
Speaker B:Or what's the other one at those Peruvian restaurants?
Speaker B:The Saltado.
Speaker A:Oh, saltado.
Speaker A:Burrito with some fries inside of it.
Speaker A:Game over steak.
Speaker B:Just take out the California burrito right away.
Speaker B:We're just replaced it.
Speaker A:You don't need that.
Speaker A:Yeah, so many.
Speaker B:So many options.
Speaker B:That's it.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I would do a Korean kimchi burrito.
Speaker B:How about a chicken coo today?
Speaker B:Burrito.
Speaker A:They had those.
Speaker B:I'm just.
Speaker B:I'm just saying shout out to my.
Speaker A:Guys in the kebab shop.
Speaker A:They got those all day long.
Speaker B:They have those, huh?
Speaker B:Burrito.
Speaker B:Look at that.
Speaker A:You know you've never eaten it at Omar's place?
Speaker B:No.
Speaker A:You never been to the kebab shop?
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:We gotta support the brother, bro.
Speaker B:He's.
Speaker B:Oh, yeah.
Speaker B:Okay, let's go down.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Omar.
Speaker A:Nazi, bro.
Speaker B:How close is he?
Speaker A:Him and his family?
Speaker A:Huh?
Speaker B:They got one in Oz.
Speaker A:There's like three.
Speaker B:I know, I know that.
Speaker B:Is he from sd, though.
Speaker A:He lives in Austin now, but he has.
Speaker A:They have several in San Diego.
Speaker A:There's one here, you know, by the office where that car wash is off Maine.
Speaker A:Yeah, one there.
Speaker A:There's one by the gym here off Irvine.
Speaker B:So they all just run on his own?
Speaker B:They all function on their own.
Speaker B:And he's out in Austin.
Speaker A:Well, I mean, he has partners in.
Speaker A:In San Diego still.
Speaker B:Oh, he's got partners.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:And they all, like, own them jointly?
Speaker A:They don't, like, own them, like, unilaterally, but yeah, they do.
Speaker A:They do good work.
Speaker A:They Grew that business very well.
Speaker A:Very, very well.
Speaker A:I was worried they were growing too fast in the beginning, but.
Speaker A:No, they were fine.
Speaker B:Yeah, we could start the burrito shop.
Speaker A:We have the higher standard.
Speaker A:Why don't you focus on this for a little bit?
Speaker B:You know, I'm hungry.
Speaker A:You are hungry.
Speaker B:It's the food.
Speaker A:Is that why you're a potty mouth tonight?
Speaker B:They.
Speaker B:They stop.
Speaker B:They still do that.
Speaker A:They know the burritos across street?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:They do it in the rain or shine.
Speaker B:They're back.
Speaker A:That man dedicated.
Speaker A:No, he.
Speaker A:No permits.
Speaker B:People.
Speaker B:People were complaining about them.
Speaker A:So somebody owns that lot right next to the side of the road.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:So they just took the chain link off and let them go into the lot.
Speaker A:And it's the exact same.
Speaker A:It's literally like three feet over and in, like, a little, like, lotted area.
Speaker A:People can drive into now.
Speaker B:Good for them.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I was really pissed off in the city.
Speaker A:Was going to kick them out because, I mean, if you're a street vendor and you're coming out every single night, setting up a tent, setting up a.
Speaker B:Grill, they were doing the Lord's work.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Oh, man.
Speaker A:Good for you.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:All right, man.
Speaker B:An hour and 31 minutes.
Speaker A:Tariffs get you going.
Speaker B: That and it's time is it: Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Let's get a burrito in your mouth.
Speaker B:Good night, everybody.
Speaker A:Bye.
