Why Government Spending Is Soaring & How Elon Musk Plans to Fix It
In this episode, hosts Chris, Saied, and Haroon tackle the behemoth that is U.S. government spending. With deficits skyrocketing 287% year-over-year and the national debt now exceeding $33 trillion, the hosts break down how this level of fiscal mismanagement impacts everything from mortgage rates to Social Security. They also delve into Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy's bold new roles in the Department of Government Efficiency, dissecting what their proposed agency cuts mean for the average American. Spoiler: The Department of Education and IRS might be on the chopping block.
➡️ As always, the conversation is packed with sharp humor and insightful analysis. Whether you're intrigued by the $250 billion deficit balloon in just one month, or curious about how Treasury bond issuance influences your car loan, this episode has you covered. By the end, you'll have a deeper understanding of why "balancing the budget" isn't just a catchy slogan—it's a necessity. Plus, a sprinkle of conspiracy theories and Musk's Dogecoin-inspired department name makes this one a must-listen.
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🔗 Resources:
Deficit spending surges to $250 billion in one month (The Kobeissi Letter via X)
What Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy could abolish in the name of government efficiency (Yahoo! Finance)
Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy appointed to lead Trump’s “Department of Government Efficiency” (CNN)
Federal deficit reaches alarming new heights (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)
How government spending affects you (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)
Americans fall further behind on debts as household debt reaches all-time high (Yahoo! Finance)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.
Transcript
Let's go, baby.
Speaker A:We got Arun's live on the show.
Speaker A:First of all, welcome back to the number one financial literacy podcast in the world.
Speaker A:Sitting next to me on my left is my partner in crime, Chris Nahibi.
Speaker B:We're really going to try to do the intro after.
Speaker B:He said he's got an announcement.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah, we got to do this.
Speaker A:He's got an announcement sitting.
Speaker B:My rival partner in town, the one only side, Omar.
Speaker A:Thank you, everybody.
Speaker A:And behind the ones and twos, DJ Arun with a big announcement.
Speaker C:I believe Saeed, like, really fucked this whole thing up.
Speaker A:No, I didn't.
Speaker A:I believe Arun had something that he would like to announce.
Speaker C:Yeah, but you up the whole thing.
Speaker C:Usually there's a lot of, like, banter to start off the show.
Speaker A:No, no, you it up.
Speaker A:You told him you got it.
Speaker B:You can't.
Speaker B:You.
Speaker A:You can't put this on me.
Speaker B:No, you did this to.
Speaker B:You.
Speaker A:You did this.
Speaker B:Don't put that on him.
Speaker C:No, no, no.
Speaker C:Of course I was gonna make the announcement, but, like, the whole introduction to the show, that usually happens 10 minutes into the show.
Speaker B:You told us right before we hit the record button that you had a big announcement.
Speaker A:Yeah, it's just naturally human.
Speaker B:Like, I want to know what that is.
Speaker A:Yeah, no, he.
Speaker A:Let's preface it for the listeners.
Speaker A:He said, I have a big announcement.
Speaker A:Would you like it before the show or live on the show?
Speaker B:Always live on the show.
Speaker A:Live on the show.
Speaker B:Mike's only.
Speaker A:Exactly.
Speaker A:All right.
Speaker A:Like.
Speaker A:Like, did it like Diddy's house?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Hot mics only.
Speaker B:All these cameras are on.
Speaker B:All right, what you got?
Speaker C:I am going to go on parental leave in June and July, but.
Speaker B:What?
Speaker C:I need some pto, bro.
Speaker A:They're expecting baby number three, bro.
Speaker B:You're shitting me.
Speaker C:Nope.
Speaker A:I just found out, too.
Speaker B:Baby number three.
Speaker A:We got a.
Speaker C:Yes, sir.
Speaker A:We got a new baby coming to the family.
Speaker B:Congratulations.
Speaker A:Congratulations are in order.
Speaker B:I've got a lot of questions.
Speaker B:Legit.
Speaker A:This is going to be, I guess, technically speaking, if I'm right, based on the due date.
Speaker A:Is that three under three?
Speaker C:No, unfortunately.
Speaker A:No.
Speaker C:Unfortunately, I didn't want to say three under three.
Speaker C:Unless, like.
Speaker C:Unless baby number three comes really early.
Speaker B:So were you guys trying.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Huh.
Speaker A:Likes to live in organized chaos, bro.
Speaker B:This is why this PTO is not a good idea.
Speaker A:This is organized chaos for him.
Speaker A:He likes organized chaos.
Speaker B:My harassment about PTO was justified.
Speaker B:I was trying to help you help yourself.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker C:No, we wanted this.
Speaker B:You don't even have three bedrooms, bro.
Speaker C:Oh, we have one, two, three, four bedrooms.
Speaker C:We're going to convert one of the office.
Speaker C:We're going to one of the offices.
Speaker C:We're going to convert the office into another bedroom.
Speaker A:He's going to convert the east wing into a bedroom.
Speaker C:We're going to move the office into the garage.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker B:So many.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker C:Keep asking.
Speaker B:No, I just.
Speaker B:I.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker B:Are you ready for three?
Speaker C:I don't know, man.
Speaker C:I mean, who's ever ready?
Speaker C:But we're excited.
Speaker C:That's all that matters.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker B:So you were.
Speaker B:You guys talk.
Speaker B:Us guys had this conversation and you were like, honey, you want to have a third?
Speaker B:And she was like, yay.
Speaker B:And you were like, yay.
Speaker B:And you guys, you know, went and did the thing.
Speaker C:Yeah.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker A:Would I do three if.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:So my wife and I were very fortunate to have a lot of help early.
Speaker A:Early on in our marriage to have the babies that we did.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Given where our parents lives are at now and, you know, their age, unfortunately, I don't see us getting that same level of help that we did.
Speaker A:And without that help, I don't think we could.
Speaker B:You don't like.
Speaker B:You play zone, though, man.
Speaker B:Like, you're man to man right now.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:You can call it.
Speaker A:No, no.
Speaker A:But in an ideal world.
Speaker A:Yeah, for sure.
Speaker A:We would have had three for really.
Speaker B:For sure.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker C:So the thing what we want, especially the age gap.
Speaker A:The age gap.
Speaker A:I like our age gap.
Speaker A:And I've seen my kids with his kids and they're amazing.
Speaker A:So they would.
Speaker A:They actually help out a lot.
Speaker C:Boy.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:That's for you.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker B:Um, so June, July, you're going to be out for some.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker C:Yeah.
Speaker B:I.
Speaker B:I did not.
Speaker B:You haven't even been talking about kids.
Speaker C:Yeah, no, I mean, we're excited.
Speaker C:We've known for a month now.
Speaker C:We were hoping to get the gender reveal, but I couldn't hold it in anymore.
Speaker C:I just was like, all right, guys, we got.
Speaker A:Yeah, we're gonna do a general reveal on the show.
Speaker C:Oh, that's a good way of doing it.
Speaker B:I'm pretty sure your wife's not gonna agree with that, but now that the.
Speaker A:Listeners are bought in, dude, Jesus, they gotta know.
Speaker B:I hope you guys get twins.
Speaker A:Oh, my God.
Speaker B:Nothing would make me so much happier.
Speaker B:It would make me happy.
Speaker A:Twins run in his family too.
Speaker B:I know, I know.
Speaker B:I hope.
Speaker B:I sincerely am gonna pray.
Speaker A:Multiple.
Speaker B:No, no.
Speaker A:Multiple cases of twins.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Not just one you know about.
Speaker B:I know.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah.
Speaker B:You've had this conversation before.
Speaker B:The last time.
Speaker B:I was hoping it had twins?
Speaker A:Yeah, bro.
Speaker A:Going from two to four, that's just like.
Speaker A:I don't even know how to process that shit.
Speaker C:Like that happens.
Speaker C:We're gonna move to Frisco.
Speaker B:No, Briscoe, you get all the help you need.
Speaker B:They just won't talk to you.
Speaker B:Listen, I know you ain't talking to me, but watch these kids.
Speaker B:I'm gonna go watch a movie by myself.
Speaker B:Wow, man.
Speaker B:Well, congratulations.
Speaker B:We're gonna miss you.
Speaker B:When you're not here for a brief period of time.
Speaker B:Are you planning on coming back?
Speaker B:Cause I feel like with three, you're not ever getting out of the house again.
Speaker C:I don't know, man.
Speaker A:That's gonna be pretty tough.
Speaker B:I don't know.
Speaker A:That's gonna be a hard sell.
Speaker A:Like, come on.
Speaker A:Two is.
Speaker A:I mean, three is another level.
Speaker B:We might need you to train your replacement before you leave.
Speaker C:If anyone's looking for a video editor role, please reach out to Horizon.
Speaker B:I got AI for that.
Speaker B:I just need somebody to be thick and talk on the mic while we're talking.
Speaker B:Maybe I'll just call him while he's at home.
Speaker A:I'll just work remote.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's probably.
Speaker B:Probably possible these days.
Speaker B:All right, well, we've got an interesting show this week, and for the purposes of context, I thought an explanation was in order.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Number one, obviously, some of us have been making babies.
Speaker B:The rest of us have been trying to program shows.
Speaker B:You know, I've come to the realization that as much as we wanted to keep the show outside of the political sphere and focus solely on the economics, certain events have happened which mean that the political environment are going to have heavier impacts than normal on the economy.
Speaker A:Yep, absolutely.
Speaker B:And I'm not saying that because I have a favoritism towards one president or another or one campaign or another.
Speaker B:It's just this particular.
Speaker B:President Trump, in his second term, has announced some pretty unique things.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:And those unique things are going to impact the way you interact with the government.
Speaker A:All right?
Speaker B:They're going to impact the way you think about your finances in the government.
Speaker B:But before we go too far down this path, I thought it'd be a good point to say the government spending is going out of control, and we're going to talk about where it's at.
Speaker B:Then we're going to talk about some of the things that Trump has already, before he's even taken office, said that he's going to do an announce just this week.
Speaker B:And for Context, this is November 13th as we're recording this, and then we're going to lay out the framework for what this really means for your wallet.
Speaker B:Sound like a good trip to you?
Speaker A:I think it sounds like a great trip.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Did you read the show notes at all?
Speaker A:Yeah, absolutely.
Speaker A:Did you really?
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker B:When?
Speaker A:Today, after you put them in.
Speaker B:Oh, that's convenient.
Speaker A:In the late afternoon.
Speaker B:Late afternoon.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Did you have any concerns over the content?
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:Zero concerns, really.
Speaker A:I like it.
Speaker A:I like the structure.
Speaker B:I took away the words fun fact and just put them in there.
Speaker B:Bullet points so you fuckers can't make fun of me.
Speaker B:And Arun, you are going to be reading tonight, so whatever you got to do to warm up your vocals.
Speaker B:Yeah, get that going.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:I feel like he's going to have a better performance.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's good.
Speaker B:You can't have a worse performance.
Speaker A:No, come on, be nice.
Speaker A:His first definitely, definitely wasn't as bad as my first performance.
Speaker B:You mean looking at Tim Chia Sano and not saying anything?
Speaker A:Exactly.
Speaker B:He viewed my stories the other day and I thought to myself, like, I should actually put a reel of you talking for 45 seconds in my story the next time he looks so that he knows you speak.
Speaker A:Because yeah, all I said was, thanks, Tim.
Speaker B:It's funny for context, but if you haven't seen that episode, go back and listen to Tim Chiasano's episode where he interviewed him and about we.
Speaker B:I mean, me and say, listen, thank.
Speaker A:God that it was audio only.
Speaker B:It was audio only.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker B:This from the Kabisi letter.
Speaker B:Another month, another 250 billion in deficit spending.
Speaker B:And no, I didn't say billion on accident.
Speaker B:I mean, they spent $250 billion in a single month.
Speaker B:That's a lot of money.
Speaker A:It is.
Speaker B:And it was actually more than the government economists were expecting.
Speaker B:But we'll get into that shortly.
Speaker B: billion in October of: Speaker B:By comparison, last October, the US budget deficit came in at 67 billion, marking a 287% year over year increase in one year of spending.
Speaker B:This puts the actual budget deficit at 252% higher than what economists had projected.
Speaker B:So we are way outside the realm of what anybody who specializes in looking at this type of data and looking at what the government spending historically has been and saying, okay, I think this works.
Speaker B:We are over 200 times that.
Speaker B:Yeah, I mean, we are way higher than that.
Speaker B:This puts the actual budget deficit in a place where I think is untenable long term.
Speaker B:And that means there's going to be Significant ramifications to the economy.
Speaker B:Imagine a public company taking on a 250% more debt per month than they expected to.
Speaker A:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker A:Well, they don't have the U.S.
Speaker A:no company has the U.S.
Speaker A:economy like behind it the way the U.S.
Speaker A:government does.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Well, the Arun brought up the Kobe Letters data from this and this basically gives you the summary of receipts outlays and the deficit surplus.
Speaker B: The US government fiscal year: Speaker B:And that is billions of dollars, kids.
Speaker B:There's a lot of zeros built in behind that.
Speaker B:That is a huge problem.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:And one that is going to set the tone for a lot of what we're going to talk about tonight and why some of these radical ideas that Trump is throwing out there might actually be the only solution to this problem.
Speaker A:I mean, we've talked about it.
Speaker A:We haven't gone into the amount of detail that we will be getting into later in the show.
Speaker A:But there's different kinds of spending that the government does.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:There's mandatory spending that they have to do.
Speaker A:For instance, the interest payment on their debts.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Which makes it a viable investment for investors, corporations or other countries to buy our debt because we always pay our debts.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:We've never missed a payment.
Speaker B:I mean, we are risking it.
Speaker B:We are risking downgrades, too, of the US Government debt, which could cause some cataclysmic effects.
Speaker B:Rating agencies rate our debt.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:It's generally considered among the highest or the best debt to hold because it always gets paid back.
Speaker B:And we're considered such a superpower and all these things.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:But if we're downgraded and we can, you know, we're considered to be lower on the spectrum of good and bad, if you will, in the debt world, that could have significant ramifications for how other countries interact with our debt.
Speaker A:Absolutely.
Speaker A:And then you have your discretionary spending.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So things like that.
Speaker A:And when you actually boil it down, it's going to be really, really difficult to make a large impact to the spending that the government does without, you know, certain sectors really feeling the pain.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So Arun, if you can make the text on that bigger, I want to, I want to touch on some of these additional notes that I included, largely because I think that some of the data here is important for setting up the context of what is planned for the future of government, at least on the surface, anyway.
Speaker B:So I'm going to read one of these.
Speaker B:Say you're going to read one and then, Arun, you're going to read the last one.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:The US national debt has surpassed $33 trillion, setting a record.
Speaker B:This increased debt burden amplifies concerns about future fiscal policy and potential tax implications.
Speaker B:This means that interest on the national debt alone is projected to exceed $1 trillion per year within the next decade, which could lead to further spending cuts or tax increases to manage this interest payment burden.
Speaker B:And just for context, the last presidential campaign or last presidency that had a relatively balanced deficit budget was Bill Clinton.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:Yeah, that was a long time ago.
Speaker B:Long time ago.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And a completely different economy and landscape.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:But yeah, just to gloss over the idea of, you know, this could have ramifications to, you know, further spending cuts or like, tax increases.
Speaker A:I mean, this, these are things that, like, we're talking about Social Security programs, Medicare, medical things that people have relied on their entire lives that when I get to a certain age, I'm banking on this.
Speaker A:Otherwise there's not much else for them to fall back on.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Social Security is a huge part of this problem.
Speaker A:Is a huge part of this problem.
Speaker A:And because a lot of people we've, we've done the numbers, so many people don't have a retirement account.
Speaker B:And the worst part about it is Social Security is effectively meaningless for most Americans.
Speaker B:And when they consider their cost, cost of living, if you have to pay rent or your mortgage payment still, then your Social Security isn't going to take you very far.
Speaker B:No.
Speaker B:Add in health care costs at an older age.
Speaker B:It's unless you happen to work someplace that had a pension or had some health care benefits that last longer than you, or maybe you were a government employee, for example, you're going to have a whirlwind of hurt when it comes to retirement age if you don't have retirement.
Speaker A:And this is what people mean when, if you've ever heard somebody say, oh, by the time I get older, Social Security is going to be wiped away because they know it's inevitable that at some point in time it's going to go away.
Speaker B:You know, we haven't talked about this in the show, but you know, if you have.
Speaker B:Let's just take this extreme example.
Speaker B:If you have AI become sentient and we start to have better advances in technology and all these things are allegedly in the next five years.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Let's say you have Elon Musk's robots rollout.
Speaker B:At what point in time do you, do you need some type of general income for all Americans?
Speaker A:Oh, universal base income.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:Like A universal basic income concept for Americans.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And if that is needed, where are you going to fund it from?
Speaker B:We're already in debt with Social Security, which doesn't provide you universal basic income, but that seems to be on the horizon as a needed element to keep, I guess, people afloat.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:And on one hand I'm like, okay, look, humans need to be working towards a goal.
Speaker B:Like we need to have things we're working towards.
Speaker B:But if a lot of the physical tasks are now taken over by robots and AI, and I know it sounds like this dystopian future, but it's really not that far away from where we're at today.
Speaker B:How do we solve for this problem to get Americans more money as opposed to Americans paying more money?
Speaker B:Because right now the only solution to this is Americans pay more money or we cut back on a lot of what are deemed to be essential items.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:Well, I want to get into that.
Speaker B:I want to get into the agencies a little bit.
Speaker B:Why don't we reach the bullet points here?
Speaker B:Let's get into the number of agencies next, because that's a really important of this.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker A:Bullet point number two.
Speaker A:Comparative deficit trends this year over year.
Speaker A:Deficit spike of 287% marks one of the largest increases in recent history.
Speaker A: ignificant crisis such as the: Speaker A:We are constantly talking about recession on the show.
Speaker B:So you've heard us say over and over again, people call me Peter Schiff every once in a while on social media because we're calling this recessionary economy.
Speaker B:And I thought to myself for a long time that, damn it, I'm becoming the negative guy.
Speaker B:But the reality, good, bad or ugly as it may be, is that there are a lot of alarming trends out there that have gone ignored because there's so many other indicators which are positive.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:To me, these mixed signals are scary.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:So, yeah, we tend to say a recession is a good thing and necessary.
Speaker B:And when we get to the interest rate portion of this conversation, we start talking about some of the things we're seeing.
Speaker B:You'll see how there's a very conflicting message when it comes to interest rates.
Speaker B:Arun, are you ready?
Speaker C:Before.
Speaker B:Come on, Daddy.
Speaker A:Before you get into that, because this tails right into what I just read.
Speaker A:Sorry, Odun.
Speaker B:So the guy off for even starts.
Speaker A:US national debt for everyone out there has started back since the country began, right?
Speaker A: So back in: Speaker A:OK.
Speaker A:Obviously big number for back then, 75 million.
Speaker A:Check this out.
Speaker A:We're at how much?
Speaker A:33 trillion.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:OK, 33, 34 trillion.
Speaker A:Right, right around there.
Speaker A: Pre: Speaker A:Yeah, we talked about it right here.
Speaker A: The: Speaker A: Post: Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:That took us to 13 and a half trillion.
Speaker A:Yeah, just like that.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Then you go all the way up to pre.
Speaker A:Covid.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A: Right up until: Speaker A:Post Covid, 28 trillion.
Speaker A:And now we're sitting at 33, 34 trillion.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So it's like think about interest at its most basic concept.
Speaker B:It's escalating much faster.
Speaker A:Much faster.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:The problem is going to spiral out of control to the point where we're literally spending $6 trillion a year and we're making $4 trillion a year.
Speaker A:And then those debt payments are just going to get to a point where inflation is just going to have to spike in order just to keep up.
Speaker B:That's a good chart.
Speaker B:So external debt by country.
Speaker B:Number one, United States of America, 34 and a half trillion dollars.
Speaker B:Percentage of GDP, 91.96.
Speaker B:European Union, 17.8 trillion.
Speaker B:That's 100.15% of GDP.
Speaker B:United Kingdom 142, 909 per capita, which is about $9.82 trillion.
Speaker B:So by far and away we are, we are way higher than anybody else.
Speaker B:The closest, European Union.
Speaker B:United Kingdom and European Union is half.
Speaker B:And that's multiple countries.
Speaker B:To be clear.
Speaker B:United Kingdom is 9.82 trillion.
Speaker B:That's a third.
Speaker A:But the percent of GDP is a, is an important factor, right?
Speaker A:Yeah, we might have the, you know, the highest amount total, but it's, it's no different than like if somebody can afford a higher mortgage payment but you're making more money.
Speaker B:Yeah, but that only lasts so long.
Speaker A:It only.
Speaker A:Exactly.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:At some point you're going to have to address the issue.
Speaker B:It becomes very cataclysmic.
Speaker B:Arun, if you don't mind, to cover.
Speaker C:The deficit section Deficit financing via treasury assurance to cover the deficit.
Speaker C:The US treasury has had what?
Speaker B:We're supporting you, bro.
Speaker B:You are, you laughed.
Speaker B:You're kind of lipping his words, bro.
Speaker A:You're my mouth.
Speaker A:I know.
Speaker C:Will Smith.
Speaker A:Yeah, he said, he said, he said insurance is issues.
Speaker A:I let it go, though.
Speaker B:I know But I let it go though.
Speaker B:You were big digging him the whole time.
Speaker A:I was nodding his head.
Speaker C:I'm looking at the words, but I'm seeing your face.
Speaker A:Okay, okay, I'm looking.
Speaker A:I'm, I'm locked in.
Speaker A:I'm locked in.
Speaker C:To cover the deficit, the US treasury has had to increase the issuance of bonds, which affects the interest rates.
Speaker C:As the market absorbs more government debt.
Speaker C:This increased supply can lead to higher borrowing costs across the board, impacting consumer loans, mortgages and credit cards.
Speaker A:You're such an asshole, bro.
Speaker B:He said borrowed.
Speaker A:You wanted to say broad, man.
Speaker C:It is one of the several reasons that the FOMC rate cuts to the Fed fund bonds has not resulted in lower mortgage rates.
Speaker B:So that's an important statement and I want it to be clear because again, this does work with all the rest of the conversation tonight.
Speaker B:If the US treasury has had to increase its issuance of bonds and this all affects interest rates and everybody was saying, hey, normally when the Fed Funds rate gets cut, mortgage rates go down and we're not seeing that happen, it's not acting as it, quote, normally would.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:You could argue that something is wrong simply if things don't go the way they normally would, something is wrong or something is different.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:From an economic perspective at least.
Speaker B:Anyway.
Speaker B:So one of the salient take home points here is that the bond market and the FOMC response acting opposite of the way it normally would is a very scary and volatile piece of information that I don't think enough people are covering with the news.
Speaker B:And yeah, it affects realtors, it affects the home mortgage market, but it also affects every single one of us.
Speaker B:Because if the Treasuries are rising, the debt that we pay on our government bonds, that's also rising.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Because who's paying those?
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah, we are.
Speaker B:We are.
Speaker B:So there's lots of trouble here and a lot of seasoned bankers that are far frankly more intelligent than I am are very, very worried about what they're seeing in the bond market right now.
Speaker B:It's not just coming out of yield curve inversion anymore.
Speaker B:It's the entire treasury curve is rising.
Speaker B:And I don't think it's coming down.
Speaker B:We've seen three rate cuts now and you haven't seen Treasuries come down.
Speaker B:So something has got to correct right now.
Speaker B:What that something is could be any one of the next issues we're going to talk about here.
Speaker B:Let's talk about what I like to call Doge Doge, which I have to think is a little tip of the Hat by Elon.
Speaker A:Honestly, he named it, right?
Speaker B:He had to, right?
Speaker A:He's like, hey, hey, Trump, I know you want to appoint me to some position.
Speaker A:Listen, I got the name.
Speaker A:Don't even worry about it.
Speaker B:So I'm going to butcher Vivek's last name here, but this from Yahoo.
Speaker B:Finance.
Speaker B:What?
Speaker B:Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, the greatest.
Speaker A:Last name of all time, could abolish.
Speaker B:In the name of government efficiency.
Speaker B:Obviously a reference to the Department of Government Efficiency, which Donald Trump has said he's going to put these two gentlemen in charge of.
Speaker B:And both of them are brilliant men.
Speaker A:Because they have diamond hands.
Speaker B:Diamond hands.
Speaker B:They hold.
Speaker A:They hold, bro.
Speaker B:They hold those dojis for a long time.
Speaker A:Yeah, they do.
Speaker B:So this quoting directly From Yahoo.
Speaker B:Finance, 99 federal agencies is more than enough, Musk said when he posted Tuesday night after Trump's announcement was made official.
Speaker B:That suggests a massive culling of the hundreds of existing agencies, with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms, ATF, and the Education Department already in focus.
Speaker B:But it's not just them, and we'll cover the rest of the agencies that could be at risk here shortly.
Speaker B:Musk later amended his count even lower, overlooking how a government database shows there are 80 agencies that begin with the letter U alone.
Speaker B:I.
Speaker B:What?
Speaker B:What?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Between them, Musk and Ramaswamy have also directed discussing eliminations, eliminating high profile areas like the Education Department and the FBI and the Internal Revenue Service.
Speaker A:Bro, the Education Department.
Speaker B:So I've got.
Speaker B:When I first read this, I thought the same thing, but let me get to the next.
Speaker B:The next paragraph here, and then I will give you some thought points on these three, okay?
Speaker A:Please, because.
Speaker A:Yeah, we.
Speaker B:I know it sounds bad at first.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:But Daddy's got answers for you, okay?
Speaker B:I'm coming here.
Speaker B:I'm coming with the heat.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker A:Come with me.
Speaker B:You want to hold my hand?
Speaker A:No.
Speaker B:Make you feel more comfortable?
Speaker B:No.
Speaker C:No.
Speaker B:I can walk through this dark experience together.
Speaker A:Let's go.
Speaker A:No, it's dark.
Speaker B:All right, so Vivek promised the elimination of at least five larger agencies during his run for president last year.
Speaker B:He also discussed cutting 90% of the staff at the Federal Reserve during the campaign.
Speaker A:You know why he did that, right?
Speaker A:Because your boy Musk bought Twitter and he let go 80%, he said.
Speaker A:Look, I know you think you're a badass, but listen, my name is Ramaswamy and I'm a cut.
Speaker A:90%.
Speaker A:90%.
Speaker B:Okay, well, so let's go agency by agency, arguably understaffed.
Speaker A:People working there could probably argue that they're understaffed.
Speaker B:Well, let me, let me throw some food for thought.
Speaker B:I'm not disagreeing with you.
Speaker B:I'm not in support of any of these things per se, but I think there's some ideas that are worth that merit a discussion.
Speaker A:Let's do it.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:So the Department of Education.
Speaker B:I have long criticized the education in this country as being established during the Industrial revolution.
Speaker B:When families like, and I'm not saying, well, I will say all of them, families like the Rothschilds of Vanderbilts, these very high net worth families were part of the people that put together their needs with the then president to say, hey, we need workers that are going to follow instructions, that want to grow in our company, that want to take on more responsibility.
Speaker B:But we don't want them to be entrepreneurs.
Speaker B:We don't want them to leave.
Speaker B:We want the educational criteria to teach them to follow directions.
Speaker B:And they have their classes start when the bell rings and classes end when the bell rings.
Speaker B:These make for ideal workers.
Speaker B:I don't know the education system was ever really built to make people successful.
Speaker B:No, it was built to make them good employees.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:But if you also buy into that whole concept, then you, then you can see why they take the tack that they do with student loans in the way they do.
Speaker A:It's a way to keep people working.
Speaker A:Working.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And in that middle class.
Speaker B:Well, in most, these, most of these schools, particularly the private ones, have such significant endowments.
Speaker B:Now your tuition doesn't do anything to move their needle financially.
Speaker B:They make more an interest alone from the investments in their large endowment funds.
Speaker A:Absolutely.
Speaker B:That your tuition doesn't even pay their operating costs.
Speaker A:That's crazy.
Speaker A:Just think about that.
Speaker B:And many schools have already contemplated, some have already positioned to.
Speaker B:If you get admitted to our school, you're not paying tuition.
Speaker B:We're picking who we want now.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's the move.
Speaker B:That's, that's where this is going ultimately for a lot of these larger schools.
Speaker B:So that's one.
Speaker B:The irs.
Speaker B:I have long said the way the IRS conducts business is strange.
Speaker A:Okay, bro, be careful.
Speaker B:No, no, I know.
Speaker B:I don't want to get anybody.
Speaker B:Nobody wants to get audited.
Speaker B:Room got real quiet back there.
Speaker B:Hey, listen, he's like, fuck that.
Speaker B:I am not with him.
Speaker A:You thought the crypto bros are bad?
Speaker A:Yeah, These guys.
Speaker B:I'm not criticizing the IRS employees, but I'm saying there has to be a better way.
Speaker A:There should be.
Speaker A:I mean, where we are with technology, where we're at today, Come on.
Speaker B:The Blockchain has public records that are out there.
Speaker A:We talk about this all the time.
Speaker A:Hey, irs, you know how much I owe in taxes?
Speaker B:Yes, we do.
Speaker A:Yes.
Speaker B:No.
Speaker A:Yes, we do.
Speaker A:Can you tell me?
Speaker B:Nope.
Speaker A:Why not?
Speaker A:Figure it out yourself.
Speaker A:But what if I underpay you?
Speaker A:Then we're going to hit you with a penalty.
Speaker A:What if I overpay you?
Speaker A:Then I'll give it to you a little bit later with no interest.
Speaker A:It's like.
Speaker A:It's a fucked up system.
Speaker B:It's a fucked up system.
Speaker B:No question about it.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:So again, I understand the criticism.
Speaker B:The Federal Reserve.
Speaker B:There's a lot of people out there, I'm not one of them, who do not like the idea of a Federal Reserve.
Speaker B:There's a whole conspiracy theory about how that was originally implemented, going all the way back to the Titanic and one particular wealthy banker who died on it.
Speaker B:If you want to Google that, I would suggest.
Speaker B:It's a fascinating read where it suggested some of the highest.
Speaker A:He owned like 40% of the mortgages in the country, right?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And he.
Speaker B:All the bankers were all scheduled to go on, but this was the only one that actually made it.
Speaker B:And everybody else, you know, obviously lived.
Speaker B:And he died on the Titanic a little sussy.
Speaker B:He was the one who was pushing against the Federal Reserve.
Speaker B:So there's a whole lot of conspiracy out there.
Speaker B:Now these are obviously, you know, 100 plus years old or whatever it might be at the time, but, you know, it's a real problem.
Speaker B:Yes.
Speaker B:A wealthy banker died on the Titanic.
Speaker B:John Jacob Astor iv.
Speaker B:God, sounds like a rich guy.
Speaker B:Already was the richest passenger on the ship and was thought to be one of the world's wealthiest people.
Speaker B:At the time.
Speaker B: sank on its maiden voyage in: Speaker B: billion in: Speaker A:But it's not even just that, Right?
Speaker A:He had a greater influence.
Speaker B:Oh, yeah.
Speaker B:He was an aide to Taft at the time, the president.
Speaker B:He had a whole mix there.
Speaker B:So, federal workforce and budget scope.
Speaker B:These are more of my fun facts, but bullet points for my two asshole friends here.
Speaker B:The federal government currently employs around 2.11 million civilian workers across 400 agencies.
Speaker B:400.
Speaker B:This workforce represents a significant portion of the US employment sector, impacting both economic stability and government oversight functions.
Speaker B:I'm going to be the asshole who says this, and I do not mean to disrespect government employees, okay?
Speaker B:This is by no means focused on them.
Speaker B:This is true for any business.
Speaker B:At some point in time, if you have employees that are not producing efficiently, you gotta get a way to motivate them or change employees.
Speaker B:And the problem with pensions, in some cases, once they get them, they can say, well, my working days are done.
Speaker B:I'm just collecting a check.
Speaker B:And they've gotta find a way to incentivize government employees because obviously they're not the highest paying jobs.
Speaker B:The private sector pays more.
Speaker A:Yeah, but the reason why you do it is to.
Speaker A:You get that pension, right?
Speaker A:Oh, that's the goal for most people.
Speaker B:So doesn't it make sense to pay them better?
Speaker A:I mean, in an ideal world, yeah, but then doesn't it make sense to pay teachers more that are literally, you know, teaching our kids?
Speaker A:That's the future of our.
Speaker B:Hence the Department of Education overhaul, hence the IRS overhaul, hence the.
Speaker B:When you walk into DMVs, for example, these are state and local governments.
Speaker B:I understand that.
Speaker B:It's not federal.
Speaker B:There's gotta be a better way.
Speaker B:I mean, come on.
Speaker B:Meow.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:There's gotta be a better way.
Speaker B:Yeah, like that system, like, take a ticket, sit down.
Speaker B: What is this,: Speaker B:Fucking bingo.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:C14.
Speaker B:We'll see you now.
Speaker B:Really, bro, we can't do this by appointment.
Speaker B:This is where we're at, right?
Speaker B:I mean, come on.
Speaker A:Yeah, If I can reserve a slot with my barber.
Speaker A:Come on, I should be able to reserve a spot.
Speaker B:Y'all can't just simply download an appointment setting program, right?
Speaker C:They have one.
Speaker C:It's just weeks in advance.
Speaker B:Yeah, that could be.
Speaker B:Wonder why it's not efficient.
Speaker C:Yep.
Speaker B:How much of that shit should be done online?
Speaker A:Correct.
Speaker A:It's going to take a lot.
Speaker A:But yeah, not everybody is adapted to the times.
Speaker A:And they should.
Speaker A:I get it.
Speaker A:They should, right?
Speaker A:And.
Speaker A:But not even everybody has smartphones.
Speaker A:That's the sad part.
Speaker B:No, I get that.
Speaker B:But look, like, okay, a bank.
Speaker B:You can do almost all your banking online now.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:Almost all of it.
Speaker A:You should know you need to go.
Speaker B:And talk to somebody, schedule an appointment.
Speaker B:If you, if you don't go in, there's not a lot of like, activity in banks anymore.
Speaker B:The same way there used to be.
Speaker B:That should be the way the DMV is.
Speaker B:It's not rocket science.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:And yet there's so many.
Speaker B:The irs, why is it I got to tell you about my donations?
Speaker B:Don't.
Speaker B:The people I make donations to report the donation that I made to you?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:You know, they just Want to confirm, though?
Speaker B:Why do you need me to confirm what you should already know, Right, Exactly.
Speaker B:Like, I don't want to be the bad guy here.
Speaker A:Don't make me that asshole.
Speaker B:Yeah, but it just.
Speaker B:It just seems.
Speaker B:The whole system seems off.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker B:So, yeah, a Department of Government efficiency sounds kind of needed.
Speaker B:If you do the honor here.
Speaker A:The total federal budget is approximately $6.4 trillion.
Speaker B:That's a problem.
Speaker A:It's a problem when you know you're only making four or five.
Speaker A:Yeah, right.
Speaker B:You're spending.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Way too much.
Speaker A:Way too much.
Speaker A:With roughly $2 trillion allocated toward mandatory spending.
Speaker A:Things like Social Security and Medicare.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And around 1.5 trillion toward discretionary programs, which would include many of the agencies under scrutiny.
Speaker A:Also not included in this of the mandatory spending is the interest payments that we talked about at the top of the show.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Which is over a trillion dollars.
Speaker B:So I can do maths here.
Speaker A:Yeah, these are easy numbers.
Speaker A:Round down.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:We got.
Speaker A:You got.
Speaker A:What is that, $2 trillion of the.
Speaker A:Let's just say 4 trillion that you make every year from taxes.
Speaker A:Two trillions going to Social Security, Medicare.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:You got another trillion.
Speaker A:What's ODIN pulling up here?
Speaker B:This is the.
Speaker B:Where it all goes.
Speaker A:Oh, okay.
Speaker A:Oh, there you go.
Speaker B:I put a chart in here for you.
Speaker A:That's right.
Speaker A:You did.
Speaker A:I did.
Speaker A:See this?
Speaker A:I didn't know if this was my own research.
Speaker A:No, get the picture of it right below the.
Speaker C:I was wondering where he's coming with the numbers.
Speaker C:The numbers are right here.
Speaker B:I tried to serve it up for you on a cloud.
Speaker A:I'm going straight.
Speaker A:Straight from the dome, bro.
Speaker B:Don't give me the dome.
Speaker A:The dome.
Speaker B:All right, fine.
Speaker A:If you want the mellow, you want.
Speaker B:To give me dome on the show.
Speaker A:Give me dome straight off the dome.
Speaker A:The mellow, wherever you want it.
Speaker A:All right, here we go.
Speaker A:How the U.S.
Speaker A:spends our tax dollars.
Speaker A: This is based on: Speaker A:1.4 billion goes to Social Security.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:850 billion to Medicare.
Speaker A:820 billion to Defense off the top.
Speaker A:You can't cut any of that, right?
Speaker A:I mean, if you start cutting that, people are going to feel the pain right away.
Speaker B:Well, I would like to object, your honor.
Speaker B:Please tell me we're spending fucking way over budget and we're missing money on accounting audits at the Pentagon.
Speaker B:Stop failing your audits, bro.
Speaker B:Yeah, I'm not saying you got to not spend the money.
Speaker B:I'm just saying you got to prove up where that money went.
Speaker B:They have lost.
Speaker B:And I'm not overstating billions of dollars.
Speaker B:They don't know where the money went.
Speaker C:Who'S going to count them?
Speaker A:So that, that goes where, that goes to the defense spending.
Speaker B:You're saying just the defense.
Speaker A:The Pentagon, you know, I have, I have.
Speaker A:So the Pentagon spending goes towards defense.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Man.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:That's a hard one.
Speaker A:That's a hard one to explain.
Speaker B:There's billions of dollars here.
Speaker B:This is not like small change.
Speaker B:There's lots of money missing, right?
Speaker B:And okay, fine, you're secretly paying to harbor aliens or some shit.
Speaker B:Like, fine, whatever, all good.
Speaker B:Like don't tell me there's aliens out there, but at least say going to secret alien department or something, you know what I mean?
Speaker B:Like tell me what you're finding with it.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:Ok, but then here, here's the problem with this, with this chart here, right?
Speaker A: This is based on: Speaker B:These numbers all gone up, I get.
Speaker A:OK, yeah, these interest payments of 658 billion.
Speaker A:Yeah, probably double that, Chief.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:OK.
Speaker A:And that's a mandatory bill.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's a problem, right?
Speaker A:We got 633 billion towards Medicaid.
Speaker A:We got, let's see, economic security programs.
Speaker A:That's the one where Trump's gonna come.
Speaker A:Or Trump's gonna come in.
Speaker A:Elon and Ramaswamy, they're gonna come in and say, come on, what's going on here?
Speaker A:Economic security programs.
Speaker A:It just blows me where.
Speaker A:What are you guys spending on?
Speaker B:It blows me away that this is the first president who was like, you know what, let's just have some smart rich guys come in here and fucking do this.
Speaker B:Like, why is this like a mind blowing idea?
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker B:Like no one was like, you know what?
Speaker B:This is a fucking problem.
Speaker B:I should probably fix this.
Speaker A:Yeah, I'm sure AI can do some of this.
Speaker A:Come on, Elon, fix this.
Speaker B:First question to Elon's Q for chatgpt.
Speaker B:How do I fix the national budget?
Speaker A:You know what's gonna happen?
Speaker A:Elon's gonna come in, he's like, you know, I could do this.
Speaker A:And I'm pretty sure I could subconscious subcontract this out to Lex Friedman.
Speaker A:Lex, get your ass in here.
Speaker B:I know, right?
Speaker B:We should, we should have really kissed his ass.
Speaker A:We should have kissed his ass.
Speaker B:Arun, save us with a potential saving from downsizing quote.
Speaker B:Downsizing quote.
Speaker B:If you don't mind.
Speaker C:The cost of operating federal agencies can be immense.
Speaker C: billion in: Speaker A:I love that he owns it.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So, yeah, so now you have defense spending at the Pentagon off by billions of dollars.
Speaker B: billion of: Speaker B:Where is that money going?
Speaker B:It's not going to the teachers.
Speaker A:I remember, I remember when the lady heading it under Trump, I can't remember her name, but she was getting grilled by Elizabeth Warren.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Oh, that was a.
Speaker A:That was one of the, like, if you want a highlight reel of all.
Speaker A:Of all the times Elizabeth Warren has grilled people on.
Speaker A:Dude, she's like, she'll ask you the question.
Speaker A:And she already made you look stupid.
Speaker A:She won't even let you answer.
Speaker A:She's going to the next question because she knows she's.
Speaker A:She's got five minutes to roast you.
Speaker B:I got five minutes to roast you.
Speaker B:And we're going all, yeah, I gotta.
Speaker A:Get through all these bullet points.
Speaker B:Your answers are irrelevant.
Speaker B:Just not.
Speaker A:It's rough, bro.
Speaker A:It's like you couldn't pay me enough to sit there.
Speaker B:Oh, I can do it.
Speaker B:I would love to do it.
Speaker A:Just sit there and take it from her.
Speaker B:Oh, yeah.
Speaker B:Oh, yeah.
Speaker A:What's her name?
Speaker A:Betsy.
Speaker A:That's right.
Speaker A:Betsy DeVos.
Speaker A:I remember thinking, devils.
Speaker A:I'm like.
Speaker A:She would ask her, like, have you.
Speaker A:Have you ever managed a trillion dollar fund?
Speaker B:No.
Speaker A:How about a billion dollar fund?
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:How about a couple hundred million dollar fund?
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:How can you run the Department of Education if you've never managed to fund this?
Speaker B:Big valid question, man.
Speaker B:And that's valid question.
Speaker B:That's a crazy thing about a lot of the people in government is a lot of them, like, have these jobs and you're going like, why are you the person that was chosen?
Speaker B:Why?
Speaker B:Why you?
Speaker A:How did you get this?
Speaker B:Yeah, like, I'm going to be.
Speaker B:I don't want to be accusatory, but if you're not qualified, right, and you're in the job and you're doing what outwardly looks like a shit job, and you still have your job, right?
Speaker B:Like, don't make me the bad guy here for asking the question because you.
Speaker A:Got to think too, right?
Speaker A:Like, you got this job and I know you've had other jobs that pay way more.
Speaker A:Why do you want this job?
Speaker A:Oh, yeah, why do you want this Is like, this would be such a headache.
Speaker B:And some of these jobs do pay pretty well, which is also kind of weird.
Speaker B:I don't know, man.
Speaker B:It's all smoke and mirrors, ruins.
Speaker B:Let's go down the next article.
Speaker B:I think we got a little more on Trump and Vivek here and Elon.
Speaker B:President elect Donald Trump announced Tuesday that Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will lead the new Department of Government Efficiency, AKA Doge, in his second administration.
Speaker B:This is a quote.
Speaker B:Because sometimes you just need quotes to really convey the levity.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Together, these two wonderful Americans will pave the way for my administration to dismantle government bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure federal agencies.
Speaker B:Trump said in a statement.
Speaker B:And I gotta be honest, during his first term, I was not a huge Trump supporter.
Speaker A:No, no, no, I wasn't either.
Speaker A:Especially for all the amount of hate that incited.
Speaker B:I didn't.
Speaker B:I didn't hate him per se, but there was a lot of things that I felt were very over stigmatized.
Speaker B:But this, all this, I can get with this.
Speaker A:Oh, I can get behind this.
Speaker A:I can.
Speaker A:I'm curious to see.
Speaker A: y I think they have until mid-: Speaker A:I think that's like the rollout or they have to actually come up with a plan and lay the groundwork.
Speaker B:It's not like I would venture to guess.
Speaker B:These gentlemen have already had conversations with Trump and I've already told him what they have in mind.
Speaker A:Damn, you put a lot of faith in Ramaswamy.
Speaker B:No, I just think Elon Musk didn't back Trump the way that he did and give him.
Speaker B:Because you have to understand, Elon Musk was a Democrat.
Speaker B:No.
Speaker B:Yeah, he has a history of being a Democrat.
Speaker A:Yeah, but he was raising a shit ton of money, bro, to get his boy elected.
Speaker B:And Elon Musk doing what he did and being visibly part of the Trump campaign was such a swerve.
Speaker B:And he, in interviews, he was calling, he was basically saying something effective, that he had serious concerns over what America was going to be if Kamala Harris had won.
Speaker B:And he had a lot of criticisms of her.
Speaker A:I know we don't like to get political on this show, but can I just say that I saw the video today with Trump sitting next to Biden and they were talking.
Speaker A:Did you see this?
Speaker B:Because he was the White House.
Speaker A:Yeah, he was at the White House.
Speaker A:Did you see it?
Speaker B:No, I didn't see it.
Speaker A:I'm not going to lie.
Speaker A:It gave.
Speaker A:It gave.
Speaker A:It was very warm and fuzzy the way, the way Joe handled it.
Speaker A:He was talking about, I want there to be a smooth transition.
Speaker A:And you could tell, you honestly could tell in that moment.
Speaker A:Trump was shocked at the way he handled it.
Speaker A:And he was very, like, complimentary and very appreciative.
Speaker A:It was like, you can see through Trump's a lot of times, but this one, I was like, damn, this.
Speaker A:This was giving out all the warm and fuzzies.
Speaker B:You think?
Speaker B:Joe leaned over midway through it and was like, yo, Donald, I don't like you, man.
Speaker B:I'll be honest with you.
Speaker B:But I like you more than I like Kamala.
Speaker A:Yeah, I've seen you.
Speaker A:I've seen you more in the last Warriors.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Yo, I thought she was dead, too.
Speaker B:Yeah, everybody's worried about me, apparently.
Speaker B:Oh, man, I'm a terrible human being.
Speaker B:All right, so, public support for smaller governments.
Speaker B:According to Gallup polls, around 52% of Americans prefer smaller government providing fewer services, while 43% support a larger government with more services.
Speaker B:I think the key distinction here is we are not getting a larger government with more services.
Speaker B:We are getting a larger government with the same amount and frankly, shitty quality services as of right now.
Speaker B:So that 43% is a bit deceiving.
Speaker B:In actuality, 52%.
Speaker B:The.
Speaker B:The more than half of Americans, just call it half, would prefer a smaller government.
Speaker B:Now, that's to say that you wouldn't have the government functions.
Speaker B:That's just to say that the federal government would not be leading the way.
Speaker B:The states would go back to their sovereignty and a lot more of the local governments, the cities, the counties, the states would have more control than the federal governments would.
Speaker B:And that might actually be more in line with what the founding fathers meant when they established the country with these separate sovereign states.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:So there is an argument that the federal government has gone a little bit over the top.
Speaker B:Now, all of this comes back to one central financial point.
Speaker B:It is a financial literacy podcast.
Speaker A:Let's do that.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Yahoo.
Speaker B:Finance.
Speaker B:Well, we got some inflation numbers that came out and where inflation is and isn't.
Speaker B:You've heard us talk about this on the show for quite some time.
Speaker B:Auto insurance still leading the way at 14%.
Speaker B:But notable call outs from Wednesday's inflation print include the Shelter index, which grew 4.9% over last year and contributed to over 50% of the monthly increase overall.
Speaker B:Meanwhile, the energy index held steady month over month after decreasing by 1.9% in September.
Speaker B:On a yearly basis, the energy index was down 4.9%.
Speaker B:So we're seeing some.
Speaker B:Some things I think, that are pretty similar.
Speaker B:But there is a reoccurring theme here with inflation, and that's auto insurance being by far and away the highest 14%.
Speaker B:Below that, rent, housing, airfare, restaurants, education, medical care, earnings, household energy, all above.
Speaker B:Overall inflation's numbers of 2.6%, which actually rose from 2.4%, which.
Speaker A:But that came in at the expectation.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:It was expected for it to rise to.
Speaker B:It was expected to rise.
Speaker A:But after this print came out, I think believe we're now sitting at an 80% chance at a rate cut in December and actually a slight, like a 10% increase.
Speaker A:Was that like 14 to now 24, 25% chance at a rate cut in January.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And look, you know, which, which makes you think like, wait, inflation went up from 2.4 to 2.6%.
Speaker A:That's the headline figure.
Speaker B:I mean, problem is jobs are getting a little weird now.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:What do you mean?
Speaker B:The job economy.
Speaker B:So the Fed has dual mandates.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And very prominently, one of those mandates is jobs.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:Stability of the job environment.
Speaker A:And that in that and no.
Speaker A:Yeah, Providing maximum employment and that jobs.
Speaker A:That last jobs print came out only.
Speaker B:Added 12,000 jobs, which was wildly lower than expectations.
Speaker A:Exactly.
Speaker A:All the other expectations always had gone the other way.
Speaker A:And this, that is almost like that's the print that they needed to allow them to continue to, you know, keep their like, foot on the gas with cutting the rates.
Speaker A:Otherwise, if, you know, if the expectation of this inflation report is that it will rise, that goes against any reasoning or rationale.
Speaker A:You should have to cut rates.
Speaker A:If anything, you stay packed.
Speaker B:So government spending can inflate gdp.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:But shelter, housing and rent, which are the number two and number three components contributing to inflation here, have been a large part of the problem.
Speaker B:That being said, if mortgage rates aren't going down because the bond market is acting in a very unusual way and they're going up, which we predicted on the show and we're seeing now, then that's going to drive rent and housing down and it might actually drive inflation down despite the FOMC cutting the fed funds rate.
Speaker A:Interesting.
Speaker B:And we have a chart, if you scroll up to the next chart on the next page there.
Speaker B:Thank you very much.
Speaker B:Housing costs are keeping inflation over 2%.
Speaker B:This again from Yahoo.
Speaker B:Finance.
Speaker B:The latest consumer price index.
Speaker B:CPI report out Wednesday showed that housing costs accelerated in October, posing a lingering challenge to the Federal Reserve's inflation fight.
Speaker B:Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed shelter costs, the largest component of CPI, ticked up 0.4% compared to the previous month in October.
Speaker B:Thank you, Arun.
Speaker B:This was higher than September's 0.2% increase and accounted for over half of October's overall monthly increase.
Speaker B:On an annual basis, shelter costs rose 4.9% in October, matching September's year over year gain of 4.9%.
Speaker B:Directing a direct quote here from Robert Frick.
Speaker B:Falling inflation hit a snag in October with the usual culprits rising shelter and food costs, something that we're all paying.
Speaker B:Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union wrote in a note after the release.
Speaker B:Given food, transportation and shelter are the top three pain points for consumers, this report didn't ease the burden of high prices.
Speaker B:Economists have been long anticipating a slowdown in rent increases, which has been reflected in other data.
Speaker B:But a widespread cooldown in rents hasn't yet shown up in the CPI report.
Speaker B:Keep in mind this is a lagging indicator.
Speaker B:Usually takes about six months before you see it.
Speaker B:So if you take that assumption and you push it forward, then you are at the Fed's overall inflation target.
Speaker B:Now once that lagging data comes in, yeah, jobs are already below their mandate so they're already thinking, okay, we have some instability in the job market.
Speaker B:So if we remove for these costs, which we know are lagging indicators and we know that the mortgage market isn't going down, we should align to our target inflation point even while we're cutting the fed funds rate.
Speaker A:Absolutely.
Speaker A:And also I know that they've said all along that we will try to hit our 2% target, but prior to this cycle that they're currently going through, the range was always 2 to 3%.
Speaker A:They did themselves no favors really calling out that 2%.
Speaker A:Early on they went for the gold.
Speaker A:Personally I didn't understand the tactic, but if you align it with what the FOMC has always done, historically speaking, you're right there.
Speaker A:So I mean not core inflation.
Speaker A:Core inflation, you're still sitting at 3.3% which that's what they say they like to allude to.
Speaker A:But to your point, like you just mentioned, these inflation numbers with food and energy is stuff that we all have to deal with.
Speaker B:That's the real cost to us.
Speaker A:That's the real cost.
Speaker A:And we know it's more.
Speaker A:We know that it's really more than 2.6%.
Speaker A:My wages and everyone else's wages has, have not kept up with the compounding interest of inflation.
Speaker B:There's new data coming out suggesting that wages are actually moving faster, which I call bullshit.
Speaker B:On.
Speaker B:Arun highlighted the part in the article where it says the discrepancy can be partly explained by how the BLS collects rental data every six months which causes a lag.
Speaker B:So lagging indicators.
Speaker C:I just highlighted the part that you left off.
Speaker A:Oh well he, he also mentioned it.
Speaker A:He did mention that there is A lag.
Speaker B:And when this is the problem between you taking literal commentary and me being, you know, a little artsy.
Speaker A:Artsy commentator, the pumpkin for the listeners out there that are new.
Speaker A:And haven't we used to really dive in and break down the granular data on inflation?
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So this, the BLS collecting the rental data, and it lags every six months.
Speaker A:It's not even in total.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:It's per region.
Speaker A:So.
Speaker A:And it's not even market leases, it's executed leases, which makes the problem even that much worse.
Speaker A:Yeah, Right.
Speaker A:So they go region by region, and it's every six months.
Speaker B:So why do you make it sound like it's over?
Speaker B:Like we're never doing that again?
Speaker A:No, I mean, we should.
Speaker A:We could always do it.
Speaker A:But I know that for some people, it's just kind of like.
Speaker A:Just give me the highlight, bro.
Speaker A:So I've gotten that from some listeners.
Speaker A:Tell me, is it good?
Speaker A:Is it bad?
Speaker A:Why is it like this?
Speaker B:I'm sorry, you're so much smarter than everybody said.
Speaker A:No, no, the listeners say they don't.
Speaker B:They.
Speaker A:They want us to just get straight to it.
Speaker B:Arun, have you ever heard that?
Speaker C:All the time.
Speaker A:Arun himself is like, you guys just go right to it.
Speaker B:He tells me all the time.
Speaker B:He wants to foreplay.
Speaker A:He.
Speaker B:He needs to get moist.
Speaker A:He wants to talk his dollars.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:By the way, I got people from BYU hit me up.
Speaker A:Now I'm pissed off because I.
Speaker A:That was my fault too.
Speaker A:I called out byu.
Speaker B:No, you got to stop doing this.
Speaker B:You get me in trouble.
Speaker A:Social media, that's the only way, bro.
Speaker B:We got it.
Speaker A:I had a guy, we got to make national headlines.
Speaker B:I had a guy hit me up on X today saying, bro, BYU loves the show.
Speaker B:Why are you doing this to me?
Speaker A:I love BYU too.
Speaker B:That's what I said.
Speaker B:And I said, obviously, say's racist.
Speaker B:Here's my Mormons.
Speaker A:No, I love Jim for that.
Speaker A:What is that?
Speaker A:That's where he played, right?
Speaker A:Odin?
Speaker C:Yes, he did.
Speaker C:Mountain west legend.
Speaker A:Yeah, bro.
Speaker A:Hey, you know, they call him.
Speaker A:What do they call him?
Speaker A:So he plays over in.
Speaker A:He plays over in China.
Speaker A:The fact in China, the fact that he does not play in the league is crazy because he's like arguably the best player to ever play in China.
Speaker A:Like he's had like 73, 75 point games.
Speaker A:Like, he's like, ridiculous.
Speaker B:I didn't even know he was playing China.
Speaker A:Oh, they.
Speaker A:They call him.
Speaker A:They call him the goat out there.
Speaker A:It's like some name that symbolizes like the man on top of the hill with nobody around him.
Speaker A:Like I've watched.
Speaker C:What the fuck?
Speaker A:I know what is wrong.
Speaker A:I don't know how I know this.
Speaker B:So much waste space.
Speaker A:I don't know how I know this.
Speaker B:Why would you.
Speaker C:The lonely, lonely master.
Speaker B:That sounds like Said's personal problem.
Speaker A:I am a lonely master.
Speaker B:Vader.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Jimmer, bro.
Speaker A:God damn.
Speaker A:He was a legend.
Speaker B:Jim.
Speaker B:Or for dead.
Speaker B:I haven't heard that name in forever.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:The non sports listeners for the people.
Speaker A:That don't know do yourself favorite.
Speaker A:Go check it out.
Speaker B:I'm.
Speaker B:I'm gonna look that up later on, by the way.
Speaker A:Yeah, you have to.
Speaker A:The documentary was great.
Speaker B:You watched a documentary on that?
Speaker A:On Jim.
Speaker A:It was.
Speaker A:It was hard to pass, man.
Speaker B:I can't get you to watch Loki.
Speaker B:But that's the.
Speaker B:You're watching.
Speaker B:It's hard to pass up.
Speaker A:It's real.
Speaker B:A document.
Speaker B:It's.
Speaker B:What the fuck does that have to do.
Speaker A:Oh, by the way.
Speaker A:So that's a segue.
Speaker A:We just.
Speaker A:We just.
Speaker A:We just introduced Harry Potter.
Speaker B:No, no, I don't want to hear about it.
Speaker B:You're not allowed to talk about any TV related content until you watch Loki.
Speaker B:It's been over a year, dude.
Speaker A:Is Harry Potter better than the Marvel?
Speaker A:I'm asking.
Speaker A:I'm asking.
Speaker B:Arun.
Speaker A:I don't know.
Speaker A:I don't know.
Speaker A:What about you?
Speaker B:Why.
Speaker A:Why genuinely speaking?
Speaker A:Is there an even.
Speaker A:Is there even an argument?
Speaker C:It's Harry Potter.
Speaker A:What does that mean?
Speaker A:I don't know what that means.
Speaker A:What does that mean?
Speaker A:Is.
Speaker A:Could.
Speaker A:Could an argument be made that Harry Potter is better than Marvel?
Speaker C:Yes.
Speaker A:Oh, I'm ruffling feathers, baby.
Speaker A:Let's go.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:You can make an argument for a lot of things.
Speaker C:Yeah.
Speaker A:Wait, but come on.
Speaker B:That doesn't make you not a friend.
Speaker A:It's Christopher.
Speaker B:You didn't watch Loki.
Speaker A:You literally haven't watched.
Speaker B:We both co signed it.
Speaker B:We asked you nicely, politely, you literally to watch it.
Speaker B:We both told you how much you would enjoy it.
Speaker A:I'm going to watch it.
Speaker B:No, you're not going to.
Speaker B:At this point in time.
Speaker B:Fuck you is what you're saying to me right now.
Speaker B:Why.
Speaker B:Why is it so hard for you to commit to watching one series?
Speaker A:I'm just being 100% dead ass, okay?
Speaker A:As the kids say, dead ass.
Speaker A:We don't watch any TV at home.
Speaker B:You just said you're watching Harry Potter.
Speaker A:No, that's a documentary.
Speaker B:And the jimmy for that.
Speaker A:That was.
Speaker A:Bro.
Speaker A:How long ago was that?
Speaker C:Last year.
Speaker B:No, it wasn't.
Speaker C:Same time as Loki.
Speaker A:That's a lie.
Speaker A:You're lying.
Speaker A:He's just trying to give me trouble.
Speaker A:Come on now.
Speaker B:A man who has three kids, no TV shows.
Speaker A:No TV shows.
Speaker A:It's like whatever's on.
Speaker A:Yeah, why don't you have Loki on Soon, man.
Speaker A:Soon.
Speaker A:We'll get back on the TV trend right now.
Speaker B:What does that even mean?
Speaker A:What do you mean?
Speaker A:When?
Speaker A:At some point in time.
Speaker B:When you still have Disney plus.
Speaker A:Yes, we do.
Speaker C:Lonely Island.
Speaker C:What's that stupid show you guys watching?
Speaker C:Are you watching?
Speaker A:No, no, no, we did not watch that.
Speaker B:No.
Speaker A:How was.
Speaker B:No, no, your wife was watching it.
Speaker B:You were watching it too.
Speaker A:No, no, she was watching on night so I'd come to the podcast.
Speaker B:No, that's not true.
Speaker B:Oh, yeah, that's why you lying.
Speaker B:He knows.
Speaker A:I watched.
Speaker A:I watched, I watched.
Speaker A:I'll be honest.
Speaker A:One and a half episodes.
Speaker B:Okay, One and a half means you watched two.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:No, no, I came.
Speaker B:Just because you caught yourself being a complete asshole doesn't mean that you didn't watch two.
Speaker A:Can I be honest?
Speaker A:You don't know why I watched the first one?
Speaker B:Nope.
Speaker B:Don't care.
Speaker B:No, don't care.
Speaker B:Hold on.
Speaker B:Nothing you say is going to invalidate the fact that you watched two episodes of that.
Speaker A:All of these shows.
Speaker A:I've never watched one of those, like dating shows.
Speaker A:Bachelor, Bachelor, none of that shit.
Speaker B:Until you watch these two.
Speaker A:Until I watched.
Speaker A:Until I watched one and a half and two.
Speaker B:I.
Speaker A:When I.
Speaker A:When I jumped in, I was like, I have to try to see.
Speaker A:I'm trying to understand the draw.
Speaker A:What's the draw?
Speaker A:I'm looking for it.
Speaker A:I'm like, this is all so bad.
Speaker A:It's like.
Speaker A:It's like watching a car wreck.
Speaker A:You can't turn away.
Speaker B:And yet you still preferred to watch that instead of watching a show that me, your friend, who cares about your well being and knows what you like, told you to watch.
Speaker A:Because I knew I was only going to watch one and I wasn't committing to two seasons.
Speaker C:What is.
Speaker B:What does your commitment to a season have to do with it?
Speaker A:It's a lot.
Speaker A:It's a lot.
Speaker A:It's a huge commitment.
Speaker B:You just told me you started watching Harry Potter.
Speaker B:There's like a thousand of those.
Speaker B:They're two hours each.
Speaker A:No, but we're doing no.
Speaker A:It's the rule of thumb.
Speaker A:No, no, no.
Speaker A:This is the rule.
Speaker A:This is the rule we made, okay?
Speaker A:We watched the first one.
Speaker A:He's intrigued.
Speaker A:Adam and Arya are both intrigued.
Speaker A:Arya can't read a chapter books like that yet.
Speaker A:But Adam can.
Speaker A:So he checked out the Harry Potter one, which, what's it called?
Speaker A:Sorcerer's Stone.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Checked it out like, okay, we are gonna watch the second one after you finish reading the first book.
Speaker A:So he's like now reading about.
Speaker A:That's what we're doing.
Speaker B:Arun, how do you tolerate this every week?
Speaker A:Tolerate what every day?
Speaker B:Yeah, everywhere.
Speaker B:Every day.
Speaker A:What did I do?
Speaker B:The fact that you don't know.
Speaker A:I have no idea what I just did.
Speaker A:What's going on?
Speaker A:What we got next?
Speaker A:Let's keep this thing moving.
Speaker B:I don't even want to do a show with you anymore.
Speaker A:Come on.
Speaker A:By the way.
Speaker B:No.
Speaker A:If you're listening to Apple, listening to us on Apple or Spotify, please head over, leave us an honest five star review.
Speaker A:We will read it right here on the show.
Speaker A:If you're watching us over on YouTube, please make sure you smash that like button, ring that notification bell.
Speaker A:Let's get this video out to as many people as possible.
Speaker A:Do all the moist goody good stuff.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And certainly don't watch Loki.
Speaker B:So all this data and all this positioning to talk about where you Americans are right now.
Speaker B:Americans fall Further behind on debts New York Fed Fines this according to Yahoo Finance As I take off a bit of a elbow brace I'm wearing all night long, cutting off my blood circulation.
Speaker B:Sorry about that.
Speaker B:Americans fell a bit further behind on their credit card debts and other loans last quarter as household debt reached an all time high, the Federal Reserve bank of New reported on Wednesday.
Speaker B:This Before Elon Musk and Vivek come in with the kitchen sink, the numbers offered a mixed overall picture of how borrowers are faring in the face of lingering high interest rates.
Speaker B:Mortgage delinquencies bumped up slightly but remained near their two decade lows as homeowners continue to benefit from low locked in monthly payments.
Speaker B:But there were signs of stress everywhere.
Speaker B: %, the highest since early: Speaker B:The total share of debt in delinquency inched up to 3 inch, up by 3.5% from 3.2% in the spring.
Speaker B:The country's overall debt load reached a new peak of $17.9 trillion thanks to across the board growth in mortgage, auto, credit card, education and other consumer debt.
Speaker B:Every single one of those categories went up in a positive development because we're not all negative here.
Speaker B:Incomes have grown faster than borrowing, the New York Fed research noted in a blog post, meaning that most households may be better positioned to handle their obligations.
Speaker B:I Disagree with that, but whatever.
Speaker B:The country's collective debt to income ratio in the third quarter was 82% compared to 86% pre pandemic.
Speaker B:Neither one of those in my mind are good numbers, but we have a chart here to show it to you from Yahoo.
Speaker B:Finance.
Speaker B:Everyone's going to bring it up here.
Speaker B:You got a bar chart with yellow bars and a red line.
Speaker B:The red line is the debt to income ratio and the yellow bars are the total debt by year.
Speaker B:You bring it up on screen or did you just click it to make it look like a weird color?
Speaker C:I was going to bring it up, but it was pretty big.
Speaker B:That's what she said.
Speaker B:I had to.
Speaker A:I mean, it was right there.
Speaker B:There you go.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker B:So as you can see here, the total debt to income ratio is kind of floated up and then floated slightly back down.
Speaker B:In my mind.
Speaker B:These are not significant departures.
Speaker B:What is important is the total debt has crept up.
Speaker B:So the debt to income ratio in my mind here again is a little bit swayed by the fact that the cost of living has increased by about 20%.
Speaker A:Cost of living.
Speaker A:Exactly.
Speaker A:It has increased.
Speaker A:And a big reason as to why this household debt has increased upwards of 150% is it's the compound interest, right?
Speaker A:It's, you know, the interest adding on top of the interest and that.
Speaker A:And that's what's really going up and people needing to use their credit to make ends meet.
Speaker B:So I would say that inflation is having a bigger bite out of most Americans wallets and that yeah, they might have a little more income, but they're also paying a whole hell of a lot more in credit card debt.
Speaker B:Delinquencies are creeping up even though the home delinquencies are not.
Speaker B:Which is fine.
Speaker B:Not all recessionary economies have to be housing recessions.
Speaker B:But we do need a housing correction in value in order to get us back to what I would call normalized affordability, which we are far, far away from now.
Speaker B:We are in the midst of an affordability crisis.
Speaker B:And Roon, if we can go down to the next article while we're here.
Speaker C:Well, I have a question, man, we've been doing this for two years now.
Speaker C:Everything just keeps going up, up, up, you know, debt, debt to income ratio, everything.
Speaker C:Like what does that mean for the Americans?
Speaker C:Like what does that mean for me five years from now?
Speaker C:What does that mean for me ten years from now?
Speaker B:Well, do you want the positive spin or the negative spin?
Speaker C:The actual facts?
Speaker A:It depends.
Speaker A:It depends on your situation, right?
Speaker A:If you're one of These people that has, you know, the high debt, like if and if you're lucky enough to have some assets that have increased, you might have to sell off some of your assets in order to pay off some of these debts.
Speaker A:If you're not one of those people that have assets, then you can expect bankruptcies to increase.
Speaker A:You know, there's going to be an affordability issue.
Speaker A:There already is an affordability issue with houses.
Speaker A:You might see some correction there.
Speaker B:So I will give you a couple different perspectives.
Speaker B:You can adopt whichever one you think is more applicable to your life.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:If I were an older American, and I would say I've been in this country for 70 years, I've seen a lot in my lifetime.
Speaker B: I was born in the: Speaker B:That's just the nature of life.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Homes just cost $10,000, $15,000.
Speaker B:Now they cost hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars.
Speaker A:My neighbor reminds me all the time.
Speaker B:Yeah, I mean, you could take the perspective that, look, life just costs more, and you guys are now seeing it in real time.
Speaker B:I would also argue a counter argument to that would be, yeah, sure, life costs more.
Speaker B: as when you were Young in the: Speaker A:And we've already gone through all the data points that have shown that the wages have not kept up with the increases that we've seen everywhere else.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So, yeah, sure, things typically cost more, but they haven't gone as fast as they're increasing now.
Speaker B:And look, we are this weird animal.
Speaker B:We like to innovate and create.
Speaker B:And we do this right.
Speaker B:We as humans, we do this.
Speaker B:All this innovation, all this creation takes a toll.
Speaker B:And the economies over time have started to accelerate, just like the national debt into the trillions.
Speaker B:And what took decades to get to a couple trillion took no time at all to bump up $5 trillion more.
Speaker B:If you look at the national debt on the chart, it looks like it's going straight up now.
Speaker B:I mean, I'm not overstating.
Speaker B:It looks like it's going straight up because it is.
Speaker B:And that's also what's happening with the cost of living.
Speaker B:The cost of living in this country is effectively going on a hockey stick straight up.
Speaker B:And we've had no pressure relief.
Speaker B:And people are like, oh, my God, Chris, you call for these recessions because you're like, oh, you're negative.
Speaker B:You want this.
Speaker B:I don't want It.
Speaker B:But God damn, we need it.
Speaker A:Oh, we needed it a long time ago.
Speaker A:We talked about it.
Speaker A:The government made their bed and now we're being forced to lay in it.
Speaker B:It's always going to be sexual with you, bro.
Speaker A:Wait, holding made the bed?
Speaker A:They made it clean?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I mean, nobody has sex on dirty beds.
Speaker A:Yeah, they made their bed.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And I won't say that you've had sex recently.
Speaker A:You know what I'm talking about.
Speaker A:You know what I'm talking about.
Speaker B:You know, it's been at least three times.
Speaker A:Jesus, man.
Speaker A:It's true.
Speaker A:Stay on track.
Speaker B:You got.
Speaker B:Look, you brought it up at the top of the show.
Speaker A:Oh, me?
Speaker B:Yeah, well, he.
Speaker B:And you brought it up.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:You were told before me.
Speaker B:Shame on you, by the way.
Speaker B:Just because what, he's related to you?
Speaker B:Racist.
Speaker A:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker A:So I forgot what I was saying.
Speaker A:God damn it.
Speaker A:They made their bet and now they're being forced to lay in it.
Speaker A: e problem started back at the: Speaker A:And that has now accelerated the problem ever since then.
Speaker A:That's accelerating this problem.
Speaker A:And now there's no turning back.
Speaker A:Because if you were to force a deep recession, if you wanted to.
Speaker A:If you wanted to cause a double dip recession.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Like our boy in the 80s did.
Speaker A:What's his name?
Speaker A:Volker.
Speaker A:Right, Paul Volcker.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:If you wanted to do that, it would be so unbelievably painful that people couldn't even fathom it.
Speaker A:I feel like it would make the Great Depression look silly.
Speaker B:Well, there's, there's.
Speaker B:There are naysayers out there who believe that that's, That's a real.
Speaker B:That's a real possibility.
Speaker B:I don't know that.
Speaker B:That I.
Speaker B:I see something on the horizon that triggers that, but there's certainly no.
Speaker A:There's.
Speaker A:That's what I'm saying.
Speaker A:It's not going to trigger that.
Speaker A:So they bought in the other way.
Speaker B:There are some people who think that it might.
Speaker A:It's like they're.
Speaker A:They're so pot committed.
Speaker A:If we want poker terms, chips are in and we're just going to keep playing.
Speaker A:I got to see this hand play out.
Speaker B:The problem is there's so many red flags now that you have to address.
Speaker B:You can't just ignore the national deficit.
Speaker B:We've got to find a way to handle that debt load.
Speaker B:Otherwise you just wind up in a situation where we can't repair debt.
Speaker B:And the entire country has a ratings downgrade and it has ramifications for the entire country, every single American.
Speaker B:We can't get there.
Speaker B:You got to make sure that you have an ability to repay that stuff back.
Speaker B:And right now, based on the way the government spending is going and has gone, there's, there's no answer there.
Speaker B:So as much as you go, oh my God, Trump's bringing in a billionaire and Vivek, who's a brilliant man in his own right to be this newly formed Department of Government Efficiency or what.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And you're just like, why does that make sense?
Speaker B:And it's like it's such a, he.
Speaker A:Was supposed to take, he was supposed to take J.D.
Speaker A:vance's spot right.
Speaker A:In the Senate, Right.
Speaker A:As a senator.
Speaker A:Vivek.
Speaker B:I don't know.
Speaker A:That's what he.
Speaker A:Look, because I think he also lives out of Ohio.
Speaker A:So like it made sense, but now he's got this position which is like, kind of weird, but I don't think it's weird.
Speaker B:I think it's a radically different idea, but probably at the right time.
Speaker A:Yeah, I mean, definitely something that absolutely needs, needs to be addressed.
Speaker A:But I mean, look, we, we've, we've talked about, on the show, we've always talked about the FOMC and how even though, you know, they're a federal, they're called the federal Department.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:It's, they're not part of the government.
Speaker A:But if you, if we're talking about our expenses, what's one way to really bring down our expenses is lowering the interest payments.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And cut, cutting the federal interest rate.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And it's like, okay, by the way, I'm getting sidetracked here because I'm just thinking about Jerome Powell's post game press conference.
Speaker A:We didn't even get into that.
Speaker A:You see how, how they asked him, they, how Trump wanted him to get kicked out.
Speaker B:Oh, yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:He's like not permitted under the law.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And it doubled down.
Speaker A:And he doubled down on his answer.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I would say it's probably a stupid ass bet.
Speaker A:Yeah, that was bad.
Speaker B:That's a, that's a bad take, Jerome.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:You're like daring him to.
Speaker B:He should have, he should have just said some of the effect of, look, my term is up in 26.
Speaker B:And yeah, we'll visit the situation.
Speaker B:We'll revisit it when, when, if the time comes.
Speaker B:And I would just say I'm a public servant here.
Speaker A:I would have gone a step further if I'm so Bad.
Speaker A:Why'd you nominate me?
Speaker A:You nominated me.
Speaker B:Yeah, I get it.
Speaker B:I.
Speaker B:Look, there's clearly some, some type of animus there, which doesn't make any sense to me at all, but we might never know.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Or maybe Trump just needs a scapegoat to say, hey, look, like, this is not my guy.
Speaker B:I don't want anybody to think that I had any, anything to do with where we're at today.
Speaker B:This is not my guy.
Speaker A:Yeah, but then, you know, the real problem here is sitting presidents always get too much credit for things that are going good and too much blame for when things go bad.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I mean, even if you're in the office for eight years, like, a lot of these problems aren't going to be solved in four years.
Speaker B:He's got one half of what would be a two term presidency left.
Speaker B:He hasn't taken office yet.
Speaker B:Fine.
Speaker B:But he's got basically four years.
Speaker B:Four years to completely overhaul 2.1 million government employees and their infrastructure around them and trillions of dollars.
Speaker B:I know.
Speaker B:People are like, oh, I could do it.
Speaker B:No, man, it's not easy.
Speaker A:It's.
Speaker A:No, it's not that easy.
Speaker B:You're not even.
Speaker B:They're not even moving the Titanic.
Speaker B:You're moving the iceberg.
Speaker B:They hit the Titanic.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:I mean, it's just, it's so monumental of a task.
Speaker B:And look, I truly believe that those two men at the helm could probably figure out efficiency, put together a plan.
Speaker B:Put together a plan.
Speaker B:Now, whether it gets approved, whether it gets done, how much pushback politically.
Speaker B:But we're also in a very interesting time, too.
Speaker B:The Republicans won the House and the Senate and the presidency.
Speaker B:They have a clear path.
Speaker B:If that team gets together, right.
Speaker B:If that political party decides to actually be united, put aside their anger towards the president and say, we are going to be the group that changes this country for the good.
Speaker B:They could catapult the Republican Party into position that they probably haven't really seen ever in history.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:You know the problem there.
Speaker A:The problem there is they know that they won't get any of the credit and other individuals will.
Speaker A:And that's not what they want.
Speaker A:It's a dirty game.
Speaker A:House of Cards, bro.
Speaker B:Never saw the show.
Speaker A:You can't, you can't start watching now.
Speaker B:Have you seen the show?
Speaker A:No.
Speaker B:Lies.
Speaker A:Swear.
Speaker B:Son of a bitch.
Speaker A:Even though, even though I wanted back then, I used to love Kevin Spacey.
Speaker A:Not, not so much.
Speaker B:I still think Kevin Spacey is a fun.
Speaker A:I don't know.
Speaker A:I don't know how that all his whole Situation played out.
Speaker B:Don't be.
Speaker B:Oh, no, we're not gonna do this.
Speaker B:Yeah, let's skip that one.
Speaker B:I was gonna do a whole like apartment vacancies in Q3 are more.
Speaker B:You know, they rise.
Speaker B:They fell for the first time.
Speaker B:So it's just the whole thing.
Speaker B:I was basically getting into the economic stress.
Speaker B:But you know what?
Speaker B:I don't feel like playing an audio clip.
Speaker B:And I'm still.
Speaker B:I'm still kind of struggling with something that we talked about in the show earlier.
Speaker B:Arun, where did this.
Speaker B:No, where are you going?
Speaker B:No, not physically.
Speaker B:Where did it happen?
Speaker B:That's what I thought you were going.
Speaker B:Where?
Speaker B:Where.
Speaker B:At what point were you guys like, we want a third.
Speaker C:Earlier in the year, Zara was.
Speaker C:She just got her cochlear.
Speaker C:So.
Speaker C:Yeah, I think it was like March, April.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Huh.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker B:You guys were going through a lot then and you guys were thinking about a third then.
Speaker B:That's.
Speaker B:That's kind of wild.
Speaker C:We wanted to do it sooner rather than later.
Speaker C:We.
Speaker C:We looked at our one Saeed situation and we're just like, dude, if we wait four or five years like we initially want, they have a routine.
Speaker C:The kids are active.
Speaker C:They're always out and about.
Speaker C:You can't bring in a new kid to that lifestyle.
Speaker A:You'd definitely be missing out on way more.
Speaker A:But yeah, you're in baby mode.
Speaker A:Stay in baby mode.
Speaker A:And then once you're out, you never don't want to go back.
Speaker C:Exactly.
Speaker B:Yeah, man.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I mean, I could see us having a third, given the way my kids have interacted with his kids.
Speaker B:You guys should.
Speaker B:Yeah, we should totally.
Speaker B:You should go home right now.
Speaker C:Well, it's not like they watch tv.
Speaker B:I know.
Speaker B:What else are you doing?
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker B:Clearly not watching Loki.
Speaker A:Not watching Loki.
Speaker B:You got a while to.
Speaker B:The kid reads the book.
Speaker C:Do you guys still have tea and sit in front of the fireplace and chit chat?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:You guys still do.
Speaker A:We still do.
Speaker A:We still do the tea thing.
Speaker A:We still.
Speaker B:How many nights a week?
Speaker A:Maybe a handful.
Speaker A:Not as much as we used to do.
Speaker A:Not as much as we would like, but.
Speaker B:So like what, three?
Speaker C:A handful is five.
Speaker B:It's five.
Speaker B:Like how many?
Speaker A:Like maybe like two.
Speaker B:So whenever she wants to, you do this.
Speaker A:It's not very long.
Speaker A:Sometimes it's literally just a 30 minute conversation.
Speaker B:No one asked how long it was.
Speaker B:Just, do you do it?
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:It's not enough to watch a full Loki episode instead.
Speaker B:So for like 30 minutes, you sit there and you're just like, so tell me about your day.
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:It's not.
Speaker A:Just tell me about your day.
Speaker A:I see what you're doing here.
Speaker A:I listened to the Fargo Talks episode.
Speaker B:Okay, so you manifesting during this time?
Speaker B:You guys, do you have a dream board?
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:Do you know anybody that has a dream board?
Speaker B:No.
Speaker B:Not an adult, anyway.
Speaker A:I feel like people that have dream boards are not telling you.
Speaker C:I feel like Joanna has one.
Speaker B:I'm the wrong person to tell.
Speaker B:You have a dream board.
Speaker B:And trust me, if my wife had one, she better hide it from me because I will put penises all over it.
Speaker A:Eggplants.
Speaker B:I had a sibling, a younger sibling whose name shall not be mentioned.
Speaker B:The youngest one you had.
Speaker B:I still have her, unfortunately.
Speaker B:And she.
Speaker B:She had a dream board on it.
Speaker B:And it was like, Hermes, Birkin, birkin bags, Mercedes G55, AMG.
Speaker B:Like, a whole, like, pictures of Travis Scott.
Speaker B:And I'm like, you like him or the shoes?
Speaker B:No, it was him, apparently.
Speaker B:And I'm like, all right, cool.
Speaker B:Like, you know, whatever.
Speaker B:And I'm like, why can't it just be, like, a good looking guy?
Speaker B:Why is it got to be Travis Scott?
Speaker B:Man?
Speaker B:I feel like you aim a little high, you know, but, like, what he symbolizes.
Speaker A:Aim for the stars.
Speaker A:Land on the clouds.
Speaker B:And I'm like, what does he symbolize?
Speaker B:You know, he's rich and famous.
Speaker B:And I'm like, okay, like, that.
Speaker B:These are not.
Speaker B:These.
Speaker B:These are not the things you should be targeting for, like, dream board.
Speaker A:There's a whole.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's a.
Speaker A:There's a much bigger conversation to be had.
Speaker B:There's a much bigger conversation.
Speaker B:You know, like.
Speaker B:And then I was like, okay, well, am I being an asshole?
Speaker B:Because, like, we all had, like.
Speaker B:Well, some of us.
Speaker B:Most of us not YouTube, but, you know, most men had pictures of, like, Victoria's Secret models on posters in the room and stuff.
Speaker B:Really?
Speaker A:You did?
Speaker B:I had Cindy Crawford in the back of my door.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:Tell you the story.
Speaker B:No, this is a fucked up story.
Speaker B:This is like most of my stories.
Speaker B:So I grew up with a very open mom and a dad who, like, celebrated sexuality in, like, a weird way.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:So my mom would always tell me, hey, son, when I was a kid, like, I was, you know, high school, like, junior elementary school, you know, if you ever want to get, like, a magazine or something, just let me know and I'll buy one for you.
Speaker B:And she used to always say it when.
Speaker B:Cause she would go in.
Speaker A:Did you know what she meant by that?
Speaker B:Well, she would go in to get, like, Diet Coke in the stores, and back then they Would sell like, you know, Playboy and you know, whatever on.
Speaker B:And what was the other one besides Playboy?
Speaker B:That was really big for a while, maximum or something.
Speaker B:No, come on.
Speaker A:I don't know.
Speaker B:No, it was.
Speaker A:Oh, Penthouse, Penthouse.
Speaker B:Thank you.
Speaker B:Yeah, see, I knew you knew?
Speaker B:Yeah, you gotta act like you don't know for the show because the wrong one.
Speaker B:First I thought it was Maxim.
Speaker B:Honey, I didn't know, so.
Speaker B:But she, she was like everyone.
Speaker B:Because we walk by and they'd be on his like magazine racks, you know, as a young boy, you like, look over like, ooh, hot girl.
Speaker B:Right on the back of my door was a picture of Cindy Crawford in Jean short.
Speaker B:It was a poster.
Speaker B:Jean shorts, no top on, but covering her chest and like the arms crossed position on a beach.
Speaker B:She's beautiful, right?
Speaker B:And my mom would always say these things to me, right?
Speaker B:And one day I got so tired of her saying it that I called her out.
Speaker B:I'm like, yeah, mom, I want to buy one.
Speaker B:Because we were going to get a bottle of a 2 liter bottle of diet Pepsi from liquor store, right?
Speaker B:We go in.
Speaker B:She's like, let's pick one out.
Speaker B:I'm like, what do you mean let's.
Speaker B:What do you mean, let's pick one out?
Speaker B:She's like, just which one do you want?
Speaker B:And I was like so embarrassed when I thought of let's pick one out that I just pointed at one.
Speaker B:Well, it happened to be Penthouses, like anniversary edition.
Speaker B:Instead of being one or two models, it was like page to page, like naked models, right?
Speaker A:She, she like, let's go through this.
Speaker A:Let's go through this together.
Speaker B:My mom gets in the car.
Speaker A:No way.
Speaker B:Opens it and starts looking at it in front of me.
Speaker B:No way.
Speaker B:Yeah, she's on my left in the driver's seat.
Speaker B:I'm in the passenger seat.
Speaker B:I was mortified, bro.
Speaker B:Like, yes.
Speaker B:Next.
Speaker A:I don't want to watch.
Speaker A:I don't want to look at this thing.
Speaker B:Next level mortify.
Speaker B:I took it home, I put it in a drawer.
Speaker B:I never, I never brought it out.
Speaker A:What a move, right?
Speaker A:So that's a power move me, bro.
Speaker B:She did, yeah, it.
Speaker A:Did you ever speak to her about it?
Speaker A:Was that the intention?
Speaker B:Oh, I talked about it when I was an adult.
Speaker B:She thought it was hilarious.
Speaker B:My mom's just very like lazy.
Speaker B:Like, she's like, she even.
Speaker A:Oh, you don't think that there was like a lot of thought that went behind it.
Speaker A:It was just more like, like she's just like, oh, I'll do this with you.
Speaker B:Yeah, she wanted to know what was in it.
Speaker B:She doesn't want me.
Speaker B:Just give me something so she knows.
Speaker B:She was just trying to like.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:And she wanted to say, like, these are like normal things to be looking at.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Oh, that, yeah, that on the right.
Speaker B:That was the same shoot as the first Cindy Crawford, but she was on the beach on her knees.
Speaker B:But the same shoe, like jeans and no top on.
Speaker B:Right, Right.
Speaker B:So that was in the back of my door.
Speaker B:And the reason why I bring this up was after that, like, it was like, this is the only, like, wholesome stuff I.
Speaker B:I, you know, I really had as a boy.
Speaker B:Well, flash forward.
Speaker B:And a friend of mine, his older sister is friends with her.
Speaker A:Oh, really?
Speaker B:At the time.
Speaker B:They're in their 40s and I'm in my 20s, I think.
Speaker B:I think that's about right.
Speaker B:Somewhere in there.
Speaker B:And I knew they were friends.
Speaker B:Blah, blah, blah, whatever.
Speaker B:I get invited over for Thanksgiving.
Speaker B:I'm in the house and like, I was really close to this family.
Speaker B:And we're over Thanksgiving, we're cooking everything else.
Speaker B:In walks fucking Cindy Crawford.
Speaker A:Come on, bro.
Speaker A:What is it?
Speaker A:How have I not heard this story?
Speaker B:Oh, yeah.
Speaker B:She walks in with her husband, who I think was a plastic surgeon or something like that, and it's Thanksgiving.
Speaker B:And the whole time I'm going like, do I fucking tell her?
Speaker A:Yeah, Do I tell her?
Speaker B:Do I feel like I owe this to you to tell you that this is.
Speaker A:Honestly, she knew she could tell the second you looked at her, the look you gave her.
Speaker A:She's like, oh, man, this kid.
Speaker B:And she was, to this day, she's a beautiful woman.
Speaker B:Like, you cannot take that away from her.
Speaker B:So we're having dinner and I say, look, Yeah.
Speaker B:I want to say something to you in the most non creepy way possible.
Speaker B:And she's like, what's that?
Speaker B:And I said, you probably hear this a lot, but as a young boy in my house, like, I had a poster of you in my wall.
Speaker B:And she's like, oh, my God, which photo was it?
Speaker B:And I'm like, you were in a jean pair of shorts to the top.
Speaker B:And she's like, oh, you like this?
Speaker B:And she.
Speaker B:And she's like, the one on the beach.
Speaker B:I'm like, yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:She's like, that one.
Speaker B:She's like, there was a lot of people that had that one.
Speaker B:And I'm like, is that weird for you?
Speaker B:She's like, no.
Speaker B:She's like, it's not like, it's, you know, like Playboy or something.
Speaker B:She's like, oh, okay.
Speaker B:She's like.
Speaker B:And, you know.
Speaker B:So was I like your fantasy?
Speaker B:And I'm like, that's a weird way to put it.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:You know, I mean, now.
Speaker A:You've now crossed the line.
Speaker B:And she looked at me.
Speaker B:She's like.
Speaker B:She's like, there's no harm in saying that.
Speaker B:You know, when you were a kid.
Speaker B:And I said.
Speaker B:I said, I very much like the image, I think.
Speaker B:I don't know how to say this without being weird.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:This has gotten very awkward now.
Speaker A:Everyone's just listening to our conversation.
Speaker B:And she was the nicest person ever.
Speaker A:Oh, that's cool.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's cool.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:She was incredibly sweet.
Speaker B:And I totally get why she was my friend's older sister.
Speaker B:Friend.
Speaker B:Like, she was actually a very nice lady.
Speaker A:And then you were never invited to Thanksgiving dinner again.
Speaker B:No, I was.
Speaker B:She was never invited Thanksgiving again.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:You know, women sometimes have a falling out.
Speaker B:They had some kind of falling out.
Speaker B:They never spoke again.
Speaker A:Oh, okay.
Speaker B:So.
Speaker B:But yeah.
Speaker A:Oh, wow.
Speaker A:Interesting story.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Life's first full circle, bro.
Speaker A:Wow, look at that.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:All right.
Speaker B:Look at the clock.
Speaker A:No, I'm looking.
Speaker A:Just making sure.
Speaker A:Arun has to say.
Speaker A:Come on, boys, wrap it up.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Is this because you're trying to enjoy your last time, last days here?
Speaker B:I mean.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:I had to joke.
Speaker A:I'll leave it alone.
Speaker A:Come on, boys, Wrap it up.
Speaker A:Because I don't.
Speaker A:Wrap it up.
Speaker C:It's pretty good.
Speaker B:No, that.
Speaker B:That's.
Speaker B:That's not a.
Speaker B:That's a pity clap.
Speaker A:Petty pity.
Speaker A:Oh, pity.
Speaker C:I'll see if I got this right.
Speaker C:Nope, nope.
Speaker A:Go beep it out.
Speaker A:All right, man.
Speaker A:Odin, you got anything?
Speaker C:No, sir.
Speaker B:No.
Speaker A:Poppy culture?
Speaker B:No.
Speaker A:Christopher.
Speaker B:He doesn't have time pop culture anymore.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah.
Speaker B:He's got a feeder pregnant wife.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:How's she doing?
Speaker A:How's she doing this time around?
Speaker A:How's baby number three?
Speaker A:Cheating her.
Speaker C:Bad as always.
Speaker C:Nauseous again.
Speaker A:Oh, really?
Speaker C:Yep.
Speaker C:Morning sickness, nauseous, vertigo, all that good stuff.
Speaker B:And you're here still.
Speaker A:Look at that.
Speaker A:Look at the level of daddy would.
Speaker C:Get mad at me daddy.
Speaker A:Look at the level.
Speaker C:You like that?
Speaker A:Yeah, he did.
Speaker A:He did like it.
Speaker B:Yeah, you did.
Speaker A:You're sick.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's the same that Diddy used to get off on the fact that you admit to liking that kind of shit.
Speaker B:What?
Speaker C:Mixtape.
Speaker C:Right before you walk.
Speaker B:My white parties are just close off.
Speaker B:Parties with no tan lines.
Speaker B:Different.
Speaker B:Different parties altogether.
Speaker B:I don't know how you even aligning the two.
Speaker A:Come on, man.
Speaker A:What?
Speaker A:Go buy yourself an ice barrel.
Speaker A:The links the links down below support the show.
Speaker B:You can't throw in a sponsor.
Speaker B:Jesus Christ.
Speaker A:All right.
Speaker A:Got anything else?
Speaker B:Oh, I'm good.
Speaker A:All right, good night, everybody.
Speaker B:That was the worst plug ever.
Speaker B:Bye.
