Markets Melt Up, The Fed Melts Down: Geopolitical Conflict Ignites a Different War
Episode 331 is classic The Higher Standard chaos with a purpose: Chris, Saied and Rajeil take a world that feels like it is being held together by ceasefire headlines, oil volatility and pure market delusion, then translate it into plain English for the people actually paying the price. They unpack the Fed getting boxed in by sticky inflation, war driven energy shocks and a market still partying like rate cuts are around the corner, while housing stays brutally unaffordable and AI quietly starts showing up in real job losses. It is equal parts macro reality check and group chat energy, with enough jokes, side quests and liquid natural gas immaturity to make the medicine go down easy.
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🔗 Resources:
Wall Street ends sharply higher on US-Iran ceasefire (Reuters)
Fed minutes show growing openness to rate hikes at March meeting (Reuters)
US mortgage rates edge down to 6.51%, MBA says (Reuters)
Gulf conflict has already laid a Fed trap (Reuters Breakingviews)
US banks could release $320 billion in capital with new draft rules (Reuters)
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Transcript
They're done.
Speaker A:You know what we got them on Mr.
Speaker A:Beast, family matters, Home Improvement.
Speaker B:They're watching that?
Speaker A:Oh, yeah.
Speaker B:The old school sitcoms.
Speaker B:Love it.
Speaker A:But I'll say it's edgy.
Speaker B:It is edgy.
Speaker B:When you go back to it.
Speaker B:It's.
Speaker B:It's edgy that I did that the other day, remember?
Speaker A:I mean, Tim Allen is very straightforward with him loving his wife and wanting alone time with his wife.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And Adam's looking at me.
Speaker A:This appropriate.
Speaker B:What was he talking about, dad?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Is he talking about booty holes?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Who's that weird neighbor all the time looking over Wilson?
Speaker A:I know.
Speaker A:No, man.
Speaker A:The teacher from Boy Meets World.
Speaker B:That's why I said he's talking about the wrong shock show.
Speaker A:No, he said the guy looking over the fence, his home improvement.
Speaker A:Yeah, Wilson.
Speaker B:Oh, yeah, the old dude.
Speaker B:That's right.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And they.
Speaker A:They show his face on the final episode.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's right.
Speaker A:That was the emotional episode, man.
Speaker B:It was.
Speaker A:It's all sad.
Speaker A:So many years watching it.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:The older son just recently got in trouble.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:He gets in trouble all the time.
Speaker B:He was in Fast and Furious, Tokyo Drift.
Speaker B:Was he like a small cameo?
Speaker B:Oh, yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:They're just trying to revive his career a little bit.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:It did not work.
Speaker B:Ah, epic fail.
Speaker A:Brad.
Speaker A:Brad was the name.
Speaker B:Is.
Speaker B:We seen a scan line on the screen.
Speaker B:I think we are.
Speaker B:Do me a favor.
Speaker B:Take this.
Speaker A:We are.
Speaker B:Second one.
Speaker B:Not that one.
Speaker B:Not that one.
Speaker A:Second one.
Speaker B:There you go.
Speaker B:Turn it off.
Speaker B:Turn it back on.
Speaker B:There you go.
Speaker A:When he turns it off and he.
Speaker B:Turns it back on, it's brighter.
Speaker A:We'll be live on location.
Speaker B:We always live on location.
Speaker A:Obey.
Speaker B:I like that one.
Speaker B:PC in the bottom left.
Speaker A:Oh, you want to watch FOX Live now?
Speaker B:No, I watch FOX Live all day and I watch.
Speaker B:Well, this screen's Bloomberg all day.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker B:Slap it, slap it, slap it.
Speaker B:Oh, God.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Welcome back to the number one financial literacy podcast in the world.
Speaker A:This is the higher standard.
Speaker A:Sitting in front of me in the all facts, no cap merch that you can find@thspod.com is Christopher Nahibi.
Speaker A:I think I've.
Speaker A:We've gone away from partner in crime.
Speaker A:My partner in crime, Christopher Nahibi.
Speaker B:Did you want to go back to that?
Speaker A:Yeah, I like that.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:The quarter zip king who sometimes makes up his mind on the intro and sometimes just goes with a seat of his quarter zip pants.
Speaker A:There you go.
Speaker B:You wearing quarters at pants?
Speaker B:Is that a thing?
Speaker B:I can make it a thing.
Speaker B:I Would love to see what that looks like.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:Just needs a collab with Sakai Assless chaps.
Speaker B:Brought to you by SAR Purple Rain, the one and only Sideomar, everybody.
Speaker A:Thank you, my man.
Speaker A:And sitting behind the desk in the production suite, the fine Fijian Slim Rajil.
Speaker A:What's up, my guy?
Speaker A:What's up everyone?
Speaker A:What's up, dude?
Speaker A:Welcome back to the show.
Speaker B:Yeah, got a lot of positive feedback in the last episode.
Speaker B:Not the.
Speaker B:Well, we are recording this on Wednesday the 8th.
Speaker B:So by the time you hear that last episode will be the one with Sheriff Bianco.
Speaker B:But the episode 329 where we talked a lot about AI and MEDV and TVPN, we got a lot of, A lot of love on that one.
Speaker A:A lot of love.
Speaker B:Yes.
Speaker A:And I got some special love from some of the listeners too.
Speaker A:Shout out to you, Don, for listening, reaching out.
Speaker A:Yeah, he was like unemployed.
Speaker A:What's going on?
Speaker B:Yeah, people are very concerned about your well being.
Speaker B:I don't know why it happens.
Speaker A:It happens to the best of us.
Speaker A:Look, we got, we got a great episode today.
Speaker A:We're going to be talking some like high level stuff.
Speaker A:You know, we got.
Speaker A:What do you got here?
Speaker A:The Fed meltdown, right.
Speaker A:The market melt up and a lot of still geopolitical conflict.
Speaker A:Even though we're currently.
Speaker A:I mean, as when we started the show, it was the ceasefire.
Speaker B:Are we really though?
Speaker A:I don't know what's going to happen by the end of the show, but as of right now, we're in a ceasefire.
Speaker B:We're going to, we're going to have this conversation from an educational place.
Speaker B:Unfortunately, this is going to be a heavy macro environment episode because it does affect, affect all of our wallets.
Speaker B:And we're going to talk about how and why.
Speaker B:Not really negative per se, but certainly seeing through the headlines and the rhetoric.
Speaker B:And I should give some context, I typically do for conversations like this.
Speaker B:Today I was doing the live show and I noticed the market was in a broad rally, you know, kind of a crazy turnaround from where it was a couple days ago.
Speaker B:And to think that just the President making a statement as a potential ceasefire in and of itself could cause.
Speaker B:That got me in my feels.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Started thinking a lot about the markets in general and the volatility.
Speaker B:And I thought, okay, let's talk about the paths that come from this current time that are unavoidable.
Speaker B:Okay, so we know what comes next, right?
Speaker B:So we're gonna do a little bit of that today in today's episode.
Speaker B:But for first I had a little impromptu topic since you brought up our boy Don.
Speaker B:Don said that the episode that we did on 329 really motivated him to understand AI.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:He said that it's astonishing that we could see somebody turn that large of a profit in such a narrow window of time.
Speaker B:And I think that this is an opportunity.
Speaker B:This is one of those markets where we focus so much on the negative and the displacement that comes from these technologies that we're not focusing on the opportunities that are coming from them.
Speaker B:And the opportunities right now are literally limitless because such a. I mean, I know a lot of people are talking about these things, but so few people are actually implementing them.
Speaker A:Mm.
Speaker B:But that isn't what I wanted to talk about with you.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Don and I were exchanging back and forth, you know, making fun of the two of you behind your backs like we normally do, and.
Speaker A:Well deserved.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:He said that he didn't know if you saw this as the opportunity that it was, that you losing your job was an opportunity to fully ingrace yourself, ingratiate yourself into the show, into, you know, whatever's next, opportunity wise.
Speaker B:And it might be something you look back on and you're very thankful for.
Speaker A:No, that's the exact conversation him and I had to.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:It's like this could be one of those turning points that could be.
Speaker A:You know, when you look back 10, 15, 20 years from now, it's like that was.
Speaker A:That's the inflection point, and you made something out of it, so.
Speaker A:Yeah, no, I'm fully aware.
Speaker B:May the wind always be at your back.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah, that's good.
Speaker B:But I think that.
Speaker B:I hope that it is.
Speaker B:I mean, I'm spending a lot of time myself on things like AI.
Speaker B:On things like technology and understanding the.
Speaker B:The economic climate in a much more broad way that.
Speaker B:Than I had before.
Speaker B:I think it's important that we all understand it because so many things that are happening, moving all at once are changing a lot of the paradigm.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And may, you know, the wings of destiny carry us aloft to dance with the stars.
Speaker B:Ah.
Speaker B:Full blow.
Speaker B:Quote, everybody.
Speaker B:Yeah, you're welcome.
Speaker B:Yeah, I know it's one of your favorite.
Speaker B:It's.
Speaker A:Yeah, it's up there.
Speaker A:Top three.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:May he rest in peace, however.
Speaker B:Yeah, it's kind of sad.
Speaker A:Frank Ab.
Speaker A:Not Frank.
Speaker B:Abigail.
Speaker A:What's his name?
Speaker A:Sorry, I'm thinking about.
Speaker A:Catch me if you can.
Speaker B:Yeah, you are?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Come on, man.
Speaker B:Ray Liotta.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:Ray Liotta.
Speaker B:The actor?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:The dad?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:I Got it.
Speaker B:All right, so according to Reuters, Wall street ends sharply higher on U. S. Iran ceasefire.
Speaker B:But is there really one though?
Speaker A:Remains to be seen.
Speaker B:I started the live show a little late today because Carolyn Bessette, I think we know Carolyn.
Speaker B:What's her last name?
Speaker B:The Levitt.
Speaker B:Levitt.
Speaker B:Carolyn Levitt.
Speaker B:Thank you so much.
Speaker B:She was talking press secretary of the White House, she was talking live and then there was also some headlines that came about regarding some of the oil pass through.
Speaker B:So I'm going to give you some, some context before I read this because this is all after these things happen.
Speaker B:The White House comes out with some explicit statements vis a vis Carolyn.
Speaker B:And about last night which whereas was supposed to be at 8pm Eastern Time, Eastern Time, 5pm Pacific Time, there's supposed to be an obliteration that took place and it didn't happen.
Speaker A:An end of a civilization.
Speaker B:Yeah, we got a two week long extension and now there's this talks of a ceasefire.
Speaker B:Now I don't know if the political zeitgeist is such where this is positioning to get some type of negotiation to happen and I don't think that anybody outside of the administration actually knows that.
Speaker B:What I do know for a fact is that JD Vance is going to go this weekend to negotiate with the Iranians in the Middle east and allegedly Pakistan is in that mix somewhere as part of an intermediary.
Speaker B: some consternation about the: Speaker B:But right before I went live and these headlines kind of took over, Israel had come out and said that there is no ceasefire in their mind and the US is not going to tell them when there's a ceasefire.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And part of the original plan with Iran is that the bombing in Lebanon would stop.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Which was an interesting counterculture.
Speaker B:I did not expect the negotiation for others to be on the table.
Speaker B:But it's a fascinating geopolitical conversation.
Speaker B:Not saying that I'm taking a stance on any side because I know someone's gonna try to do that, but I did not expect the Iranians to step in and take that position, which was very.
Speaker A:Yeah, it's all very odd.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:I mean you've heard out of the Israel side that they're not gonna tell us when the war is gonna be over.
Speaker A:Meaning us, the U.S. yeah.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:And they've also said that if there's go troops on the ground that it won't be our troops.
Speaker A:And you're like, I Don't really understand what's going on here.
Speaker B:There's a lot of confusing rhetoric and that, that's the part that I'm trying to get to.
Speaker B:Not so much what was said, but just that what was said was not what the US Was saying.
Speaker A:It doesn't feel like it's aligned.
Speaker B:Doesn't feel like it's aligned.
Speaker B:And, and again, that's why I look at some of the consternation of some of these, like, hyperbole, like statements.
Speaker B:You know, I don't want to call it hyperbole, but they're kind of adjacent where we're making these big grandiose statements.
Speaker B:And maybe that's to pressure things from maybe one end or the other.
Speaker B:Maybe they're trying to pressure Israel.
Speaker A:Maybe, maybe the art of the deal, man.
Speaker B:Perhaps, I don't know.
Speaker B:But then you saw a lot of conversation about, oh, well, there's, you know, oil tank is going to the straight.
Speaker B:Well, we know that Iran has been requesting that they get like a $2 million tariff paid in cryptocurrency or yuan.
Speaker B:And now I go on to Live Tracker.
Speaker B:I look at the straight.
Speaker B:There's only two ships that pass through today, and both those ships were dry ships not carrying oil.
Speaker A:Yes.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:So.
Speaker B:And then shortly, whose ships they were, I remember there was somebody ambiguous.
Speaker B:But the largest ship of oil through the region came out and made a statement today saying that they still did not feel comfort traversing the.
Speaker B:The.
Speaker A:Yeah, I would, I would not feel comfortable.
Speaker B:So you're getting all these counter messages to the idea of things having meaningfully improved.
Speaker B:But then I log on to the show and I check the market status and the market is doing like raging, phenomenal numbers.
Speaker B:Everybody's up except for the, for the energy sector, which is down.
Speaker A:Interesting.
Speaker B:It's not interesting because, you know, this is kind of behavior you should expect.
Speaker B:So anytime that any type of time of oil crisis like this in history, oil prices rise, energy companies rise, benefit because of it.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker A:That's right.
Speaker B:So if oil comes down because they think this conflict is going down and these energy companies are going to suffer because there's a return to normalization of price, I wouldn't look at the price going down.
Speaker B:I look at it as a price normalizing.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:But I wouldn't expect the swings to be happening this quickly all at once.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:And that's the irrational volatility that we're seeing.
Speaker B:And that's why we're having tonight's conversation.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:These swings are in fact, too wild.
Speaker B:You had the vix start off the day at around 25 and anything above 20 in our mind is heightened.
Speaker B:It came to all the way down about 20 in the middle of the day, largely based on nothing besides the rhetoric that a, or the hope that a ceasefire was going to happen.
Speaker B:I'm sitting here thinking to myself, okay, let's just say hypothetically a ceasefire happens, okay?
Speaker B:And I'm all for peace, I'm all for that.
Speaker A:And remember guys, when the VIX comes down, that's people putting their money where their mouth is.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:That's them literally pulling, pulling away from like, let's say shorting stocks.
Speaker B:That's right.
Speaker B:Although I would say there are some interesting things that happen here.
Speaker B:So one of the things that we've been monitoring closely is we got today an alert that CPI inflation is likely to come in hotter.
Speaker B:And this is going to be kind of the.
Speaker A:Which I think is to be expected given everything that's going on.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Oil prices have gone up and this, so this is the baseline for the show.
Speaker B:So this part, pay attention to everybody.
Speaker B:Okay?
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Oil prices go up.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Even if they came back down now, right now, today, the inflation pattern is still going to be an impact for the foreseeable near term future.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And just like tariffs, so you don't really feel them go through the system until months and, you know, maybe a year later.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:The impacts of this financially are going to take that long or more to get there, push their way through the system 100%.
Speaker A:I think you and I were having a conversation.
Speaker A:I think the reason why we all haven't seen an impact as severe as, you know, you would think, given everything going on, is because there's a month's supply of oil that they have that's in the system already.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Give it another month or two.
Speaker A:And that's why it was always the case.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:When, when everything started off, it was somewhere between four to six weeks.
Speaker B:That's right.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:We'll know we'll be in and out of there within four to six weeks.
Speaker A:Well, that's because you got a month's supply already.
Speaker B:So all this, I'm trying to calibrate a model and one of the things our model has been echoing for weeks is that inflation is going to come in higher.
Speaker B:Now if inflation comes in higher, you can expect the long end of the curve, the treasury curve, to come down the 10, the 20, the 30 year bond.
Speaker B:Treasury numbers are gonna come down.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Inflation comes in hot.
Speaker B:The Fed has really no room to move because unemployment 4.3% just came in, which is lower.
Speaker B:Which is lower.
Speaker B:And again, healthy.
Speaker B:Stabilized to them now is 4.5%.
Speaker B:Used to be 5% unemploy.
Speaker B:So you're below that number, which is good.
Speaker B:In their eyes.
Speaker A:In their eyes.
Speaker A:As far as the data point goes in, they've said over the past several meetings that the data point, as far as what comes out of the jobs.
Speaker A:Job reports, is the unemployment numbers.
Speaker A:That's what we're going to be looking at.
Speaker B:That's right.
Speaker B:That's been a huge focus for them.
Speaker B:And I do think that AI and that disruption is going to trickle in more and more into the conversation.
Speaker B:The Fed has been very late to mention the influence of AI when we.
Speaker A:If at any point we do decide to go over the jobs numbers.
Speaker A:I took a look into the Challenger report that dove in, that dives in a little bit deeper and goes actually into the job cuts and the percentage of job cuts coming from certain sectors and why.
Speaker A:And I think those numbers are going to surprise everybody.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And I was, I was really surprised with the service sector stuff, but we can get into that, too.
Speaker B:And that actually parlays pretty well in some of the topics.
Speaker B:But just to set the final stage here, inflation is likely to come in hotter on Friday of this week.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:And if it does come in hotter, we know those things are likely to happen.
Speaker B:And you know, the Fed's dual mandate is at a quandary.
Speaker B:There is no data point for them to look to to cut interest rates, which means you're going to have a prolonged period of holding.
Speaker B:Chicago Mercantile Exchange, as of this morning, is over 99% probability of holding rates at the April meeting towards the end of April.
Speaker B:Mm.
Speaker B:And it's got a very, very slim chance of rate increases, not cuts.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:It's crazy because actually, a month ago almost to the day, there was an 11 chance at a rate cut.
Speaker A:Now, I know 11% does not mean that it's going to happen, but just it gives you insight into how, you know, how things are looking.
Speaker B:That's right.
Speaker A:There was an 11% chance of a rate cut at this upcoming meeting.
Speaker A:Now it's at 0%.
Speaker A:There's a 99% of no movement at all.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:To swing 11% from just a month ago.
Speaker B:It's.
Speaker A:That's, that's telling.
Speaker B:It's volatility in a deeper way than we've experienced historically.
Speaker B:Yep.
Speaker B:So then you have to look at the minutes that came out this morning for the Fed, and those came out this morning, and I looked at that Slightly before the show as well.
Speaker B:The only one on the FOMC who wanted rate cuts was Baron.
Speaker A:Yeah, I mean, well, he has to.
Speaker B:And he's always been the outlier who wanted two cuts, everybody wanted one.
Speaker B:And he's always been very hawkish on the idea of cuts.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:But outside of him, there was nobody else.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And what I would say is no matter how the Lisa Cook federal court opinion and Supreme Court comes down, there is not a consensus of people who are going to swing the votes towards rate cuts anytime soon.
Speaker B:So you can expect that, that the original prediction by JP Morgan Chase, assuming nothing else changes now, and that's a big assumption, volatility we're experiencing would be that you get no rate cuts throughout the year and then possibly a rate increase by November or December.
Speaker A:And what, what's scary is, and we've been actually hinting at all of this now for the greater portion of a year and a half.
Speaker A:The, the scary word stagflation.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:I think we're in stagflation currently, 100%.
Speaker A:We're there because there's, there's not, there's no room to cut rates and there's no room to increase rates.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:When the last time we were in a similar situation like this in the 70s and 80s, in order to, you know, get out of this problem, the Fed had to raise their rates up to like 18 to 20%.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Which you can't do that now because of where our debt levels are.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:I got to hear back then, back then, our total debt as a nation, 900 billion.
Speaker A:I'll say that again.
Speaker B:Manageable.
Speaker A:Manageable, right.
Speaker A:That's a 32% debt to GDP ratio.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:It's actually manageable.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Very manageable.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:It's now we're at 38 trillion.
Speaker A:So we're not only from billion to trillions, but 38 trillion.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And our debt to GDP is 120%.
Speaker A:So you couldn't raise it that high even if you wanted to because the US wouldn't be able to service their debts.
Speaker A:We collect $5 trillion in tax revenue every year.
Speaker A:The debt payment alone on, or the interest payment on your debt alone would be $5 trillion.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:So that's not even an option anymore.
Speaker B:No.
Speaker A:So I don't know.
Speaker A:So that's why you're just going to continue hearing like we're going to hold for longer short term pain, for long term gain and that whole narrative that, you know, all the media outlets are running with.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Because that's all they can do is hold and like it's,.
Speaker B:I don't know,.
Speaker A:Die by a thousand cuts.
Speaker B:Yep.
Speaker B:And all of this as we're walking into a conversation today about a ceasefire.
Speaker B:Reuters, of course, posting the article.
Speaker B:US stocks closed sharply higher on Wednesday after a last minute two week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran lifted investor sentiment.
Speaker B:All three major US stock indices, frankly, all the things we track, nasdaq, qqq, everything was popping.
Speaker B:It was just.
Speaker B:Is pop an appropriate financial term?
Speaker A:Honestly, I'm for it.
Speaker A:We're not.
Speaker A:We're 90s kids.
Speaker B:Come on.
Speaker A:Why not?
Speaker B:Now we can, we can limit the popping.
Speaker B:No coochie popping.
Speaker B:That's no, no booty popping.
Speaker B:But let's say popping.
Speaker A:Booty poppins are selling you coochie popping is wild.
Speaker B:Is it?
Speaker A:You can't.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's wild.
Speaker B:What if I call it Tamaguchi popping, That's throwback.
Speaker A:That's completely different.
Speaker B:Makes you Google it.
Speaker B:I'm giving you cerebellum.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:So anyway, all three major US stock indices surged at the opening bell, muscled higher by a broad relief rally after a deal brokered by Pakistan resulted in a two week suspension.
Speaker A:Yeah, I'm fanatically correct job, you know, because you know I'm calling you out.
Speaker B:Shout out to the Pakistani homies, bro.
Speaker A:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker B:I got your back, guys.
Speaker B:Of the war.
Speaker B:The conflict, which began with joint US Israel strikes on Iran in February 28, has sent world markets reeling, disrupted global oil supply and sparked fears of rising inflation.
Speaker B:A senior Iranian official told Reuters that the crucial straight of hormoz, through which one fifth of the world's oil is shipped, could be reopened on Thursday or Friday ahead of peace talks if the countries agree upon a framework for the ceasefire.
Speaker B:So this was the rhetoric and it sounds really optimistic.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:You're like, okay, well, I mean, damn.
Speaker A:I mean, but given everything that's going on there, it's like if I had a ship out there, I'm gonna need to see a handful of ships go through before I send mine through.
Speaker B:And that's just me personally, but again, this also, I'm not buying it predicts some of the narrative, right?
Speaker B:Like, I mean, okay, fine, this is Reuters and I, they are a reliable news outlet.
Speaker B:I'll read this guy had last had dick in his last name, so I gotta read his quote.
Speaker B:It's an expected move today and there's still a lot of work to do, but I think the market is quite relieved.
Speaker B:Relieved, said Mike Dixon, head of portfolio management at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carol, Carolina, home of the Dixon.
Speaker B:The other side of this coin could have been a lot worse.
Speaker B:And frankly there's a good reason to think that it was possible to.
Speaker B:So you were seeing that relief rally in the hardest hit areas of the market?
Speaker B:I saw it in the entire market.
Speaker B:3, 3 To 5%.
Speaker B:Except again, except for the oil.
Speaker B:You know, the oil companies, the energy companies in particular, they got, they got hammered back down by.
Speaker B:But only 2%.
Speaker B:They were up on these massive swings.
Speaker B:So yeah, I don't look at that as a huge thing.
Speaker B:The CBOE market volatility index vix, a barometer of investor anxiety dipped to its lowest level since the beginning of the war.
Speaker B:And I'm sitting here going like, okay, but based on what, what tangent?
Speaker B:Israel has put out conflicting statements today.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:You've not seen tankers go through today.
Speaker B:What are we celebrating?
Speaker A:I think that we're, we're getting to a point.
Speaker A:Rajeel, do me a favor.
Speaker A:Can you look this up?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Say no.
Speaker B:Please.
Speaker B:Just say no.
Speaker A:Please.
Speaker A:I said please.
Speaker A:Hell no.
Speaker A:It depends.
Speaker A:Can you?
Speaker A:Yeah, can you please?
Speaker A:What?
Speaker A:What?
Speaker A:I'm your homie.
Speaker A:Look up how many countries utilize the straight of hormones for.
Speaker A:To get their fertilizer.
Speaker B:Oh yeah, this is a real, this.
Speaker A:Is a real problem.
Speaker A:Fertilizer is not something that you can store, right?
Speaker A:So.
Speaker A:And it's.
Speaker A:We're currently in planting season all around the world.
Speaker B:You're going to make me do this?
Speaker A:Hold on.
Speaker B:You can't store.
Speaker A:You can't store.
Speaker A:So you literally.
Speaker B:Thank you.
Speaker B:I appreciate you.
Speaker A:Countries around the world will begin to starve if you don't take care of this problem.
Speaker A:Like this is a real issue.
Speaker B:It's the urea, isn't it?
Speaker B:Isn't that the, the biggest component over here?
Speaker A:What countries?
Speaker A:About onethird of global seaborne fertilizer passes through the straight with dozens of countries relying on these shipments.
Speaker A:Key producers exporting through the strait include Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, uae, Bahrain and Oman.
Speaker A:Major importing nations is what I wanted to know.
Speaker A:India, Brazil, Australia, Sudan, Tanzania and Sri Lanka.
Speaker B:See, you're going to make me do this and I don't want to do that.
Speaker B:This is, this is a dick move by you.
Speaker A:I did this intentionally.
Speaker A:We are not mature enough to have.
Speaker B:This conversation fucked up, dude.
Speaker B:So you're telling me.
Speaker B:You're telling me ok, you're telling me.
Speaker A:These are people's lives, Chris.
Speaker B:That India, Brazil and Australia are importing Saudi shit?
Speaker B:Like I gotta be the guy who.
Speaker A:Says that they are.
Speaker B:And why do all the Qatar, Iran, Saudi and UAE have so much shit.
Speaker A:Why they gotta think of all this?
Speaker B:Like, why.
Speaker B:Why are they so full of shit?
Speaker A:There's some.
Speaker B:I feel so much better.
Speaker B:I got that out.
Speaker B:I couldn't.
Speaker B:I couldn't hold it in.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Deep breaths.
Speaker A:Specific exposure studies indicate high reliance, such as Australia sourcing 72% of their.
Speaker B:Of their.
Speaker A:From the Gulf.
Speaker A:And India having high.
Speaker A:Oh.
Speaker A:A higher dependence.
Speaker A:Other affected nations include Sudan, Sri Lanka.
Speaker B:Man, Sudan.
Speaker B:54.
Speaker A:This is a problem, bro.
Speaker A:This is what I'm trying to say.
Speaker B:Malawi.
Speaker B:52.
Speaker A:Listen, at some point these countries are gonna be like, send the tanker.
Speaker B:It's not really, though.
Speaker B:It's like ammonia and like urea and like those byproducts, right?
Speaker A:Doesn't matter.
Speaker A:You need it to.
Speaker A:You need it for your fertilizer.
Speaker B:I am.
Speaker B:Fertilizer is getting through.
Speaker B:The fertilizer isn't getting through the straight of her mose.
Speaker B:Click on the top right.
Speaker B:From Carnegie Endowment.
Speaker B:They sound pretty reliable.
Speaker A:That's in March.
Speaker B:The Gulf region is a key producer not only of liquid natural gas, LNG and oil products, but also a fertilizer.
Speaker B:About one third of the global seaborne trade in fertilizers typically passes through the Strait of Hermos, which has been nearly entirely closed since the United States and Israel's attack on Iran on February 28th.
Speaker B:In particular, Gulf countries are importing producers of nitrogen fertilizers which depend primarily on natural gas burned at high.
Speaker B:Okay, that makes sense.
Speaker B:Burned at high pressure in the presence of hydrogen to synthesize ammonia.
Speaker B:The hydrogen usually comes from natural gas as well.
Speaker B:So, okay, so they're synthesizing the chemicals as part of their oil and gas production to distribute as a natural byproduct.
Speaker B:Brilliant.
Speaker B:By the way.
Speaker B:These guys are literally making all sorts of shit.
Speaker B:All sorts of shit.
Speaker B:I can't do it.
Speaker A:And then.
Speaker A:And then the other problem here for us, and why this is which one?
Speaker B:But it's not just that the Gulf fertilizer can't make it to the export market, such as Sudan, Brazil or Sri Lanka.
Speaker B:It's also that fertilizer producers elsewhere lack the key ingredients.
Speaker B:This is where the second order effects of a supply chain crisis appear.
Speaker B: ssia's invasion of Ukraine in: Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Wow.
Speaker B:Yeah, I learned a lot from you today.
Speaker A:And look, this is a lot of talk.
Speaker A:This is only going to trickle down into the CPI and the right PCE numbers down the road.
Speaker A:Isn't it crazy, by the way, like all we've been hearing lately Is like cpi.
Speaker A:Cpi.
Speaker A:When, like when, when this all first started, the only talk of the town was pce.
Speaker A:And I'm not even hearing about PC.
Speaker B:Yeah, we monitor core inflation.
Speaker A:We exclude.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And our preferred gauge is pce, not cpi.
Speaker B:We like the jolts report for jobs.
Speaker A:Yeah, they really get you to hyper, hyper focus over here.
Speaker A:Don't look this one cuz we don't care about this.
Speaker A:And you're like, okay dude, like I'm, I'm understanding the big picture here.
Speaker A:And it looks like we're all screwed.
Speaker B:Cuz the, these are all the same strategies I used to deploy when I was single and dating, by the way.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Please don't look the hairline.
Speaker A:Look over here.
Speaker A:Look at the wallet.
Speaker B:Why you got to make it personal, dog?
Speaker B:You too.
Speaker B:You, you would want to make an opening joke.
Speaker B:I know.
Speaker B:Chris, don't move that light.
Speaker B:It makes you look bald.
Speaker B:No, I am bald.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:And you're like, okay.
Speaker A:So then I, I, I looked in deeper to this too.
Speaker A:So another huge problem for you know the here in the US with this, right.
Speaker A:Is the entire market.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Has been propped up with with these tech companies like the Max 7 and AI.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And a lot of it is dependent on cheap energy.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:If we had to start producing more liquefied natural gas here, right.
Speaker A:To make up a difference, okay.
Speaker A:That would only increase the cost of energy on home base.
Speaker B:I am not mature enough to have this conversation.
Speaker B:Dude.
Speaker B:I can't do it.
Speaker B:You said liquefied natural gas.
Speaker B:I thought diarrhea.
Speaker A:Yeah, For this dude.
Speaker A:Lng.
Speaker B:This is why we can't get sponsored.
Speaker A:This is your fault.
Speaker B:I know.
Speaker B:I can't.
Speaker A:I'm here trying to be professional.
Speaker B:You look good.
Speaker A:Hey, TVPN got 200 million.
Speaker B:I'm trying to get.
Speaker B:I just can't.
Speaker A:I'm trying to get 1%.
Speaker B:My perverted mind is costing us hundreds of millions of dollars to son of a.
Speaker A:Try to teach people.
Speaker A:But yeah, anyways, so that's, that's a huge problem.
Speaker A:So AI needs cheap energy and everything that's happening right now is you're only antagonizing China with everything that's going on.
Speaker B:And China's moving warships into Taiwan.
Speaker B:They're like, hey, what's that ship doing here?
Speaker B:Why is it 26 of them out in the harbor?
Speaker B:I don't know.
Speaker A:Everyone's having fun.
Speaker A:We're gonna have some fun too.
Speaker B:You know the part that bothers me the most about this is we're just, first of all, we are.
Speaker B:We just all not Going to talk about the fact that Israel is still.
Speaker B:Still going after Gaza and the whole strip today.
Speaker B:Yeah, I mean, we're just.
Speaker B:We're just gonna not talk about that.
Speaker B:We're not gonna talk about Russia and Ukraine anymore.
Speaker A:So.
Speaker B:Wrong, man.
Speaker B:We're just gonna all, like, turn a blind eye to it.
Speaker B:Does anybody know what Putin's doing over there anymore?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:How is he like that exactly?
Speaker B:I literally know Ukrainians who move to the United States and live with, like, adoptive, like, families to get away from what was going on over there.
Speaker B:And it's still going on.
Speaker A:Yeah, it's wild.
Speaker B:And we're.
Speaker B:We're so egocentric as a culture.
Speaker B:So.
Speaker A:Tinfoil hat.
Speaker A:I can't remember.
Speaker A:It was.
Speaker A:I can't remember which podcast it was.
Speaker A:It probably was one of Rogan's podcasts,.
Speaker B:But I can't believe you listen to other podcasts.
Speaker A:Joe Rogan, Joe Rogan, Joe Rogan.
Speaker A:Shout out to the old.
Speaker A:Put the tinfoil hat on.
Speaker A:It was like, maybe this is all part of the plan to go.
Speaker A:It's so much chaos going on.
Speaker A:We all should just rely on AI to just run everything.
Speaker B:Oh, no, that was actually brought up to.
Speaker B:On today's episode.
Speaker B:Well, that was.
Speaker B:The thing was yesterday, but it was Bob Lazar, the alien guy, who I love.
Speaker B:I adore Bob Lazar.
Speaker B:Yeah, right.
Speaker B:And he came up and Joe Rogan have a conversation about this.
Speaker B: was actually a movie from the: Speaker B:Where somebody launched AI inside of, like, a mountain right in the US and.
Speaker B:And then another country, like, Russia launches AI in their, like, computer system.
Speaker B: These big: Speaker B:And then like, oh, well, we should have the two systems talk to one another.
Speaker B:You know, they can talk to each other for us.
Speaker B:And then these pseudo AIs from 70s are talking to each other.
Speaker B:And then like, oh, well, they can't give away trade secrets, so we'll just stop ours from talking.
Speaker B:The other one.
Speaker B:The other one got pissed off and fired nukes.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:But I. I think if you were to argue the AI.
Speaker B:Here's my problem is before I got deep into the AI, like, area, I was like, oh, AGI is like, around the corner.
Speaker B:I'm like, nah, nah, this dog.
Speaker B:This guy's stupid.
Speaker A:There's some.
Speaker A:Yeah, but you got to think, okay, so some of the mistakes like that I'm seeing, and we talked about it before the show, and I had seen other people make these reels.
Speaker A:It's like, just make the thing count to 200.
Speaker A:Watch it make mistakes.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:And it's like I did, but I feel like, okay, that's going, that's going to be an easy fix.
Speaker B:It is.
Speaker B:So if you go to a better model, like Opus 4.6 can handle that easily.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So it's like I don't.
Speaker A:I'm not too concerned with some of these like basic issues, but like at some point there are going to be people needed to look over.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Well, I think also it's our problem too.
Speaker B:Like, so as a society we expect AI to be superhuman.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:But that is not AGI.
Speaker B:Artificial general intelligence is just about as intelligent as a human, if not a little bit better.
Speaker B:Asi, artificial super intelligence is when you get there.
Speaker B:So why would we expect AI?
Speaker A:Yeah, I know.
Speaker B:To be perfect when we are not perfect.
Speaker A:I had a conversation with.
Speaker A:I had a conversation.
Speaker A:Oh, by the way, I ran into my first person that said, oh, man.
Speaker A:I listened to the show and I.
Speaker B:Was like, oh, really?
Speaker B:What's weird, right?
Speaker B:That's very off putting, you know, do.
Speaker A:The hands like, do I say I'm sorry?
Speaker B:I always do.
Speaker B:I always leave.
Speaker A:I'm sorry.
Speaker B:I'm sorry you wasted two hours.
Speaker A:I'm sorry if I offended you.
Speaker A:I'm sure I did.
Speaker B:Was it the dick joke?
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:My wife sometimes will drop in and listen.
Speaker A:She's like, I can't believe you said.
Speaker A:I'm like, I don't remember what I said.
Speaker A:Don't, like, don't think that I'm just storing everything that I'm saying.
Speaker B:Oh, I know.
Speaker B:It comes out because I edit the shows, right?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:So I know.
Speaker B:And I make your stuff purposely embarrassing.
Speaker B:Louder, louder.
Speaker B:Increase the volume on that joke.
Speaker A:Yeah, but what is this Colossus?
Speaker B:The Four Bin project?
Speaker B:Yeah, it's the one.
Speaker A:This was the movie.
Speaker B:How did you find that?
Speaker A:Google God to use AI.
Speaker A:Yeah, good job.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker A:Actually, if I go back right there,.
Speaker B: Project from: Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Young Jamie, often cited as the definitive AI gone rogue film of the era.
Speaker B:This cold war era theory era thriller focuses on American supercomputer Colossus that is given control of the nation's nuclear arsenal.
Speaker B:Colossus quickly becomes sentient, links up with its Soviet counterpart, Guardian.
Speaker B:Shouldn't they have like a Russian name, whatever.
Speaker B:And decides to take over the world to ensure peace by eliminating human warfare, forcing humanity to submit to its authority.
Speaker A:Yes.
Speaker B:So it's like my wife.
Speaker A:All of our wives.
Speaker A:No, so back, back to your point about like, this is just.
Speaker A:It's not supposed to be a superhuman.
Speaker A:It's just, it's just like any other human.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And I had this conversation with this guy who listens to the pod and.
Speaker B:Wait, what was the context, one more context of how he, like, approached you?
Speaker B:This guy know you?
Speaker A:Yes, he, he, or kind of, he ran into me at a basketball tournament.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:We had seen each other in passing.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:But he's like, he just came to, by the way.
Speaker A:I, I listen, I didn't know he even knew my name.
Speaker B:How did he find out?
Speaker A:It was one of the.
Speaker A:I don't know.
Speaker A:You must.
Speaker A:I didn't ask.
Speaker A:I'm not asking.
Speaker A:I'm not.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:I'm not asking, like, oh, how'd you find it?
Speaker B:Is it the marketing is Googled, Assholes and quarters.
Speaker B:And your picture came up with a podcast.
Speaker A:But he's a trial attorney, right?
Speaker A:Yeah, and a really successful one at that.
Speaker A:And he says, I'll tell.
Speaker A:I was telling him about the show and, like, what were they doing?
Speaker A:I was like, hey, like, I led with I'm sorry.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And I'm like, listen, the show is really targeted to make, like, learning for, you know, for everybody, but for, like, the younger demographics to keep them engaged.
Speaker A:And that's why we talk the way that we talk.
Speaker A:And he's like, dude, you don't need to explain to me.
Speaker A:I understand.
Speaker A:I tell everybody that, like, works with me as a trial attorney.
Speaker A:You need to talk like you're talking to a fifth grader.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:That's the way to be the most successful.
Speaker B:It's athletes.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:And it's like.
Speaker B:Which is why my jokes are relevant.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:So.
Speaker A:So there's a method to the madness.
Speaker B:Yeah, I, I, I was in la viewing properties with Sarah.
Speaker B:Was it yesterday day before?
Speaker B:It was.
Speaker B:I don't even know what day of the week it is.
Speaker A:It's Wednesday.
Speaker B:Yeah, yesterday.
Speaker B:Yesterday.
Speaker A:Hump day.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Thank you very much.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:The unemployed guy knows hump day.
Speaker A:Every day that goes by, I'm like, damn, damn.
Speaker B:Two shows in a row, another day, negative cash flow.
Speaker B:So I was, I walk up to the guy and he's like, oh, hey, Chris.
Speaker B:Huh?
Speaker B:Never met him before in my life.
Speaker B:I don't know.
Speaker B:And I'm like, what?
Speaker B:And I'm like, oh, so, you know, somebody told him that I was coming.
Speaker B:Like, he's like.
Speaker B:He starts talking about finance right away, and I'm like, oh.
Speaker A:Oh, damn.
Speaker B:Yeah, I know it's going on here.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I'm so sorry, dude.
Speaker B:I was wearing the merch too.
Speaker B:Like, I was all merged out.
Speaker B:Yeah, he's like, you wearing your own product.
Speaker B:I'm like, bro, I'm a walking billboard around this place.
Speaker B:I've been to four properties that everyone's gonna be like, why is the higher standard property inspecting?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Guess you'll never know.
Speaker A:That's good.
Speaker B:All right, I probably should get us back on topic because we're about half an hour in.
Speaker B:We only covered 11 of like 40,000 articles.
Speaker A:Oh, but it's all relevant.
Speaker B:Yeah, it's all relevant.
Speaker B:Root, Reuters, Reuters, Rooters.
Speaker B:What are you thinking about?
Speaker B:I just.
Speaker B:What are you thinking about?
Speaker A:Christopher Roto Rooter.
Speaker B:He's such a good guy on the other end of things.
Speaker B:Yeah, you know what I'm talking about.
Speaker B:According to Reuters, Fed minutes show growing openness to rate hikes at the march meeting.
Speaker B:Regil pulling it up on the screen like the sexy man that he is.
Speaker B:Fijian style, baby.
Speaker B:Stay sexy.
Speaker B:What?
Speaker A:Bula bula means all greetings like, hello.
Speaker A:Bula bula.
Speaker B:B U L A.
Speaker A:B U L A.
Speaker A:Get hip to it.
Speaker A:Don't.
Speaker A:You don't gotta say it like that.
Speaker B:It sounds scary when you say like that.
Speaker A:No, that's not how he said it even.
Speaker A:Why are you adding an accent to it?
Speaker B:Because I feel like in the islands, they're, like, authoritative with it.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Is that how they say it?
Speaker B:So it's like Thai sadiqa.
Speaker A:Okay, well, I mean, look, Uniqlo ads, huh?
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:No, you guys, that's you.
Speaker B:I'm not even here.
Speaker A:I'm not even.
Speaker B:No.
Speaker B:No what?
Speaker B:Ever since your goddamn cowboy hat, L.A. goggle conversation, I get non stop fucking cowboy hats.
Speaker A:Stop it.
Speaker B:I guarantee you if Virgil keeps going around, we're gonna get a cowboy hat ad every fucking time.
Speaker B:Uniqlo ads get crazy cowboy hat sports themed.
Speaker B:You know how niche that is.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:It's gotta be you two and your bullshit search.
Speaker B:And I blame him for searching the stuff that you talk about on this show.
Speaker B:So now I get nothing besides Uniqlo and cowboy hats?
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:It's a terrible problem.
Speaker B:And I honestly thought about buying some unique logo today until I realized they don't sell stuff for people of my size.
Speaker A:Oh, that's true.
Speaker B:Stop.
Speaker B:I don't need you to confirm that.
Speaker B:Okay, Dick?
Speaker B:A growing group of Federal Reserve policymakers felt last month that interest rate hikes might be needed to counter inflation that continued to exceed the central bank's 2% target, particularly given the inflationary impact of the US Israel war with Iran, according to the minutes of their March 17th through 18th meeting.
Speaker B:So this happening literally Almost a month ago they were already talking about, hey, we're probably gonna need some hikes here in the future, guys.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And they hadn't seen where the market was going, where we, where we see it today.
Speaker B:This is a quote here.
Speaker B:No, Dick.
Speaker B:In this quote, some participants judge that there was a strong case for a two sided description of the Federal Open Market Committee's future interest rate decisions in the post meeting statement reflecting the possibility that upwards adjustments to the target range for the Federal Reserve Funds Federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation were to remain at above target levels.
Speaker B:Why should I believe.
Speaker A:Why should people care about this?
Speaker A:So why should people care about this?
Speaker A:Like if we're currently going through what we're seeing with all the revisions to the job numbers, all the layoffs that we're seeing.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:With a potential rate increase, what do you think that would do a number of things.
Speaker B:Okay, so I think right now we have a sentiment in the economy that's been unable to be broken.
Speaker B:Broken.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And the reason why is you've had this prolonged period of artificial interest rate deflation.
Speaker B:This is probably a deeper answer than you wanted, but bear with me.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:I go deep sometimes, but it feels good.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker B:Come on.
Speaker B:It's just really.
Speaker A:I think so.
Speaker A:I don't believe it.
Speaker B:I didn't believe it.
Speaker B:I did it.
Speaker A:I didn't believe that.
Speaker A:You go, you literally sometimes or figuratively?
Speaker A:No, no, literally.
Speaker B:The answer is absolutely.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:So I'm saying literally, averagely.
Speaker A:I know, I know.
Speaker B:Figuratively, that's what I'm saying.
Speaker B:I didn't buy it.
Speaker A:You didn't sell it.
Speaker B:Very average.
Speaker A:Yeah, you go deep sometimes in topics.
Speaker B:I can't.
Speaker B:It's.
Speaker B:There's a wall there if you want.
Speaker A:No, it's just there's a lot of empty space.
Speaker B:Actually there's a limitation.
Speaker B:Proximity bias.
Speaker A:And that right there is a clip.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:We can't air because he does want a job one day.
Speaker A:I know.
Speaker A:Damn it.
Speaker B:All right, so back on topic.
Speaker B:Yes.
Speaker B:The problem here is, is a monumental one that people don't see coming.
Speaker B:We had 15, almost 20 years.
Speaker B:Artificial interest rate deflation, prolonged period of interest rates being held down and the market is rallying, rallying, rallying on the sentiment.
Speaker B:You need something to cement over that feeling.
Speaker B:And the only way you really get there is to have rates go up near term.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:I think the fed funds rate's going to move up and as that happens, I think you're going to get a longer interest in the longer end of the curve.
Speaker B:The 20, 30 year curve, right.
Speaker B:I think that's going to happen over time.
Speaker B:But first you're going to have those things come down.
Speaker B:As inflation goes up, the long end of the curve is going to come down.
Speaker B:The short end of the curve is going to rise a little bit.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:And as this happens, it's going to put upward pressure on rates.
Speaker B:I do think you're going to see mortgage rates go higher than where they are today.
Speaker B:Where I think we were at 6.4 something earlier.
Speaker B:I think it's back down a little bit.
Speaker B:6.18 Somewhere in that range.
Speaker B:It's fluid, right.
Speaker B:But it's been following the 10 year a little bit over 2% over the 10 year.
Speaker B:I think the way this plays out is it's going to diffuse this optimism that has been almost pervasive in the markets.
Speaker B:And I think people have gotten so used to it, they think that, hey, we should go, go, go, go.
Speaker B:Optimism, optimism, optimism.
Speaker B:That is not a nor.
Speaker A:But as, as, as a former executive at a publicly traded company, right?
Speaker A:And you start to hear, you know, this type of rhetoric, how do companies like, what would companies naturally do to position themselves if, okay, there's going to be a credit squeeze, right?
Speaker B:I don't know that.
Speaker B:First of all, there's no signs of credit weakness other than the private credit markets, right?
Speaker B:Yeah, I do think the private credit markets could trigger something larger.
Speaker B:But for right now, it's seems like it might be contained, which is a lot of why you're seeing this kind of like me attitude with talking heads.
Speaker B:But again, the subprime mortgage crisis looked like it could be contained until it couldn't.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker B:There was trickle down effects that we didn't see coming.
Speaker B:And if we did, there's only a couple people in their movies about those people because they saw those trickle down effects.
Speaker B:And that's why everybody sees all these like adverse recessionary talking heads that are like, you know, pundits of recessions.
Speaker B:They go, should I listen to this guy?
Speaker B:Should I not?
Speaker B:Is he another Michael Burry?
Speaker B:Is he not?
Speaker B:Like you don't know?
Speaker B:Because there were people who got it right last time, right?
Speaker B:So look, the number one thing you're going to look at here is the cost to borrow is going to increase for companies, okay?
Speaker B:That's going to happen.
Speaker B:And companies on the fringe of profits are going to have to pay more.
Speaker A:And what does that mean for most companies?
Speaker A:Less expansion, less growth, less opportunity.
Speaker A:Like less opportunities, Right.
Speaker B:But let's not confuse ourselves with where the market's at today.
Speaker B:And this is a very valid point that I saw.
Speaker B:I think it was Carl Quintilla talking about this on the cnbc and he was absolutely right.
Speaker A:Gangster name.
Speaker B:Gangster name, bro.
Speaker B:And he's also.
Speaker A:I dropped the.
Speaker A:My name is Quintilla.
Speaker B:Yo, Carl on X.
Speaker B:Respect, bro.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Gangster Love it.
Speaker B:I, I never tell just by the name maybe.
Speaker B:But dude, on him on X, man, he comes out, he, he, he chirps.
Speaker B:Look at that.
Speaker B:We got the Wall Street Journal.
Speaker B:Like, look, Carl Quintillo, Carl con.
Speaker B:Whatever he, he's gangster on.
Speaker B:Look at this.
Speaker B:This is just, I'm just gonna read the first one that came off top.
Speaker B:He pinned this.
Speaker B: This is X in: Speaker B:Crying at other potentially fake accounts that they aren't all real.
Speaker B:All while refusing to acknowledge that they themselves aren't who they say they are.
Speaker B:A Russian nesting doll of bullshit.
Speaker B:Shout out to Carl Quintel, everybody.
Speaker B:He out here.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:He does not have a girth problem.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:He does not.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:But no, he's got sensational stuff here.
Speaker B:And I, I would, I would have thought.
Speaker B:I like this because from a political standpoint, from a corporate standpoint, a traditional media personality like him who's not afraid to say some pretty pointed stuff on social media is the right move.
Speaker A:Yes.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:They're not worried about him being inflammatory and he's not going to cross any lines.
Speaker B:He's going to call it what it is.
Speaker B:He said the word bullshit and nobody lost their minds.
Speaker B:Nobody died.
Speaker A:Can we just go back to that, please?
Speaker A:Yeah, I want to go back to, back to those times.
Speaker B:Oh, I thought you were looking for jewelry.
Speaker A:No.
Speaker B:Yeah, well, and I.
Speaker B:Both of you.
Speaker B:What, yeah.
Speaker B:Was that what?
Speaker B:What?
Speaker A:Oh, yeah, no.
Speaker A:He seems like the Theo Vaughn of X Journal.
Speaker B:Yeah, well, I mean he's got professional Xavier up in the top too.
Speaker B:Like we just pretty gangster.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:When you got the leader of the X Men in your top of your profile, Patrick Stewart over there looking sexy.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:You know him and I have the same haircut.
Speaker A:You wish, bro.
Speaker B:I do.
Speaker B:I wish I had that dome.
Speaker A:No, so, I mean, given this whole topic around jobs, I think, I think it's a good time just to quickly drop in some of these job numbers that just came out.
Speaker A:So we had 178, 000 net jobs being added in March and unemployment trick.
Speaker B:Went down to 4.3 as my guy Carl would say.
Speaker B:That is.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Quintanilla says I'm saying too.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So here's the thing.
Speaker A:I believe it was the last last month they had reported 90.
Speaker A:There was a loss of 92, 000.
Speaker B:Revised it down.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:And they revised it.
Speaker A:So as they always do and they went even further downwards about it.
Speaker A:Yeah, 133,000 jobs lost.
Speaker A:So we're going from.
Speaker A:Wait, we.
Speaker A:You revised it down to 133,000 and now you're saying you added 178,000.
Speaker B:Let me reframe it because I can do a little thing called math.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:In two months we gained 40,000 jobs.
Speaker B:That's what you're saying.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:If, if maybe.
Speaker A:I mean, this is going to get revised down for sure.
Speaker A:It'll get revised.
Speaker A:It'll get revised down.
Speaker A:And so the jobs added was mainly boosted by healthcare workers coming back from the strike.
Speaker A:So that was 76,000 jobs.
Speaker B:I try to get that mosquito.
Speaker A:76, 000 Jobs in healthcare.
Speaker A:Construction added 26, 000.
Speaker A:Transportation warehousing added 21, 000.
Speaker B:So, oh, yeah, he pulled it.
Speaker B:Look at that.
Speaker B:Virginia's on point today, boy.
Speaker A:Young Jamie out here working, right.
Speaker A:It's the C4, man.
Speaker B:C4.
Speaker B:I could.
Speaker A:So the FOMC said that the most important data point, as we mentioned earlier in the show, was the unemployment rate.
Speaker A:So it's now at 4.3%, which is an improvement from 4.4%.
Speaker A:And it was 4.6% not too long ago in November.
Speaker B:So.
Speaker A:So now you really don't have a leg to stand on if you want to cut rates.
Speaker B:I'm going to get that.
Speaker B:Oh, so I got it.
Speaker B:Good job, boy.
Speaker A:You got to get that mosquito right here.
Speaker B:I'm right here.
Speaker A:Saeed Miyagi.
Speaker B:Remind me, remind me at the end of the show to give you a mosquito story.
Speaker B:It's going to make you question why.
Speaker A:I don't want to do this.
Speaker B:Just smush it.
Speaker B:I can't smush it.
Speaker B:Oh, why the table, bro?
Speaker A:I wasn't even there.
Speaker A:Anyway, it's on the floor.
Speaker A:So the next part of this was the challenger report, right.
Speaker A:Which is a little bit of a deeper dive.
Speaker A:And this is the part where I really think.
Speaker B:I've always thought the challenger report was superior, frankly.
Speaker B:Yeah, me too.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:And because when you get data that really like it hurts a little, you're like, this is probably real, like.
Speaker A:Yeah, you know, job cuts in March are up 25% when compared to February.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:Job cuts.
Speaker A:US based employers announced 60,000 job cuts in March.
Speaker A:The leading reason.
Speaker A:So they actually look over all the reasons for the job cuts.
Speaker A:All right.
Speaker A:I think for the first time, the leading reason is AI really with 15, 000 jobs?
Speaker B:Well, I'm glad to see somebody finally came to a bit of reality there.
Speaker B:I mean it took, it took long enough.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:This is going to blow you away though.
Speaker A:All right, so let's cap off the rest of those.
Speaker A:The other leading reasons were store closings was at roughly 14, 000, restructuring was 8, 700 and market and economic conditions only made up 6, 500.
Speaker B:All right, store closings is not a good omen.
Speaker B:Not good.
Speaker B:That's not good sign, kids.
Speaker A:So now, so 15,000 of these 60,000 jobs.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So 25% was due to AI.
Speaker A:That's wild.
Speaker B:That's, that's a big number.
Speaker B:But, and that, that sounds like what we're experiencing though, that, that's the part like where if you're the FOMC and you're, you're talking about, we haven't seen the impact of job AI on jobs.
Speaker B:Like I'm looking at this number and I'm going like, how are they saying 25?
Speaker B:And they're saying, I don't, I don't see it.
Speaker A:And this is, and this is my exact problem with all this.
Speaker A: So in: Speaker A: % in: Speaker B:Yeah, I believe that.
Speaker A:Okay, so you see the hockey stick and, and it's, it's starting to go up.
Speaker A:And how is the FOMC not mentioning any of this great data work, by the way.
Speaker A:Thank you, appreciate it.
Speaker A:And it's like, okay, all the reports of all the job cuts have been, you know, tech companies and the excuse has been, oh, this is probably a one off this.
Speaker A:We got, we had Amazon, right.
Speaker A:We had all these other companies, right.
Speaker A:And you're like, okay, these are probably one offs, but when you look at all them together, right, in aggregate, you have to start asking yourself, remember, these are the same companies that have been propping up the entire economy.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:So that should be a major concern.
Speaker A:If these companies were propping everything up and they're the ones cutting, you know, laying off people, then that should be an area of concern.
Speaker B:But if Carl were here, he would tell you that, look, you got company's all time high earnings, their multiples been beating the shit over the last couple of months, particularly some of the, some of the tech sector guys.
Speaker B:And this is, this could be a buying opportunity.
Speaker A:I mean, I mean look, the system is designed for the debt bubble to continue to blow up and grow.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:That's what inflation is.
Speaker A:That's what inflation is for.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Inflation is so that all these assets will eventually continue to, you know, grow over time.
Speaker A:So do I think that you should still continue to dollar cost average?
Speaker A:Yes.
Speaker A:Will you, will that, you know, will you be buying at the absolute bottom?
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:But you also won't be buying at the absolute top either.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So you will be, over time it will grow and that's why you need to continue to dollar cost averaging if you can.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's right.
Speaker B:And answer your previous question about the Fed.
Speaker B:Should the higher energy prices persist, higher input cost could and would be more likely to pass through to core inflation.
Speaker B:The minute said this is minutes from a month ago.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Some participants highlighted the possibility that after several years of the above target inflation, longer term inflation expectations could become more sensitive to energy price increases.
Speaker B:I think we're seeing that right now.
Speaker B:Participants noted that the progress towards the committee's 2% objective could be slower than previously expected and judged that the risk of inflation running persistent above the committee's objective had increased.
Speaker B:These are the minutes from the FOMC meeting from a month ago.
Speaker B:And nothing that's happened from then till now has disproven that discourse.
Speaker B:The Fed watch tool, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, a separate entity than the Fed who monitors these probabilities, is in alignment with this rhetoric a month later.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And just because we've now seen this geopolitical construct, if you want to call it that, come to a situ, a point where we're calling for a ceasefire does not mean that you can ignore what these people have been talking about for a month behind the scenes.
Speaker B:And this information was made public this morning right before enduring this rally.
Speaker B:And we still had some asinine, positive, bullish run right back.
Speaker B:Yeah, that is hard to trade if you're a day trader right now.
Speaker B:You must be going like, damn it, you get.
Speaker A:I don't know how you make sense of trading on any news right now unless you're just going the opposite.
Speaker B:Unless you're the trying to build a model during.
Speaker B:Oh, hey, that's me.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah, my bad.
Speaker B:So let's turn to mortgage rates.
Speaker B:U.
Speaker B:S mortgage rates edged down according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Speaker B:I gotta be honest with you, the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Speaker B:And you know what, God damn it.
Speaker B:I think I talked about this in the last show.
Speaker B:You know when you go to Google search, you search your name.
Speaker A:Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:You search my name, you know who comes up.
Speaker A:Yeah, Lawrence Yun.
Speaker B:Fucking Lawrence Yoon.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I'm glad you guys are tied at the hip.
Speaker A:Dude.
Speaker B:Why do I talk that much trash that Google's like these guys like each other.
Speaker B:Is that what it is?
Speaker A:Yeah, I would think it would be Zandy.
Speaker B:We say Joe Rogan like six.
Speaker B:Zaddy and I are cool.
Speaker B:It could be Zaddy.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Zaddy.
Speaker B:You know what I mean?
Speaker B:Like, but like you, you gotta Lawrence you.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:They're antagonizing.
Speaker B:We say Joe Rogan 5,000 times a show to trigger the algorithm.
Speaker B:And somehow Lawrence ones.
Speaker B:You and I are the ones that are connected.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:They want you to be homies.
Speaker B:I'm not homies with him.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:In the national association of Realtors, by the way.
Speaker A:I mean you are no member.
Speaker B:I am a member.
Speaker A:You had.
Speaker A:So there you go.
Speaker B:That's why I can talk trash.
Speaker B:I'm not only a client.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:The interest rate on the most popular US home loaned 30 year project, by the way, ticked down last week for the first time since the start of the Iran war.
Speaker B:But not enough to rejuvenate a housing market that's pricing out many.
Speaker B:I'm going to say all buyers with a combination of elevated borrowing costs and expensive homes.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:The Mortgage bank association said Wednesday that the contract rate on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage fell 6 basis points to 6.51 for the first week ended April 3rd.
Speaker B:Retreating from the seven month high hit the prior week almost 7% by the way.
Speaker B:Even so, refinance applications sank 2.8% and purchased applications were up about 1% from the previous week.
Speaker B:Were 7% lower than a year ago.
Speaker B:So the NBA said mortgage rates have climbed by 42 basis points since the US and Israel launched the war on February 28th, driving up yields on the treasury bond.
Speaker B:Lenders use to set mortgage rates 10 year treasury, by the way, if you're.
Speaker A:Anybody that's like have been on the sidelines, you know, waiting to get into a homeowner, I don't understand how you can justify this.
Speaker A:So just for what, buying a home?
Speaker B:It's utility, baby.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I mean if you can, but.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A: I got some numbers for you in: Speaker A:A home that costs $328,000.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:You put 20% down with a mortgage rate of sub 3%.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:That gets you for a monthly payment of eleven hundred dollars a month.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Reasonable still.
Speaker A:Yeah, reasonable.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:I mean I know we're dealing with California numbers, so.
Speaker A:But we're talking about, you know, the median price.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Still reasonable relative to where they are.
Speaker A: Well, that was in: Speaker A:2026.
Speaker A:That same home is now $420,000.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:20% Down at a six and a half percent rate gets you a monthly mortgage payment of $2,200 twice double 100% increase.
Speaker B:Not reasonable.
Speaker A:Not reasonable.
Speaker A:Now, wages went up 22% between now and then, but that's not enough to make up the difference when you pre tax wages.
Speaker A:Pre tax wages.
Speaker A:And when you factor in insurance, property taxes, and the cost of everything that.
Speaker A:To maintain a home.
Speaker A:I don't understand how you can justify doing it.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:I'll be honest.
Speaker B:I wouldn't do it, man.
Speaker B:It's a fundamental problem.
Speaker B:And it's.
Speaker B:It's like the haves and the haves nots.
Speaker B:And it's a terrible.
Speaker B:Yeah, terrible divide.
Speaker A:You know why home price Brazil pulled this up?
Speaker B:Why?
Speaker A: % since: Speaker A:If you're an American looking to buy a home and feel like your money isn't going as far as it did a few years ago, you're not imagining things.
Speaker A: since: Speaker A:Yep.
Speaker A:It's facts.
Speaker A:That is a significant price increase by any standard, making life difficult for most.
Speaker A:And this is supposed to be the dream.
Speaker A:This is supposed to be like what you wake up every day and strive to go get.
Speaker A:It's like, come on, dude.
Speaker B:Yep.
Speaker A:I'm just seeing more and more people.
Speaker A:My own algorithm is seeing it.
Speaker A:I'm seeing more and more people like millennials making reels.
Speaker A:Like, how am I?
Speaker A:Like, how have I had to deal with as much as I've had to deal with in my lifetime to get to.
Speaker A:To get to this point?
Speaker A:I bought into the system.
Speaker A:I went to school, I got the student loan debt, and now I'm supposed to be at a time where I'm supposed to start a family and, you know, buy a home, and I can't.
Speaker A:I did everything you wanted me to do.
Speaker B:I mean, but here.
Speaker B:So I'm not playing devil's advocate, but.
Speaker A:Feel like you are.
Speaker B:That's.
Speaker A:That's your way of saying I'm not, but I am.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B: hat was set, you know, in the: Speaker A:That's like a mark.
Speaker A:I feel like it was all a marketing plan.
Speaker A:Me personally, I feel it was all marketing.
Speaker B:But is that still the American dream?
Speaker B:Or is the American Dream I want to be rich.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:I mean, I'm not, I'm not being, you know, I'm not trying to downplay the value of these things.
Speaker B:I'm not at all.
Speaker B:But if you went to most Americans and you said, what's a greater proxy for your happiness?
Speaker B:Owning a home or being rich?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Having a stress free life right.
Speaker A:Where you're, where you're comfortable every single month.
Speaker B:How many influencers do you see that are living this vagabond like, lifestyle where they're in a, in a, in a vehicle and they're running, rolling around.
Speaker B:You're like, damn, that's cool.
Speaker B:You know, I don't know that I would do it, but I get it.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker B:Like, and then you see less people having kids and I think about myself like where humanity is going, where we're just procreating less and the sex drive of the younger demographic because of these sharp decline, hormonal differences.
Speaker B:Very sharp decline.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And I don't know, I mean, and then people aren't drinking as much, which is.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's like, there's a whole relationship bonding thing.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So like people are just becoming more and more distant from one another.
Speaker B:Well, and then what used to be social media is now attention media.
Speaker B:So now all we're doing is chronically using attention and we're all in front of these screens all the time.
Speaker B:And I'm just looking at, I mean, we were talking early in the show about the old sitcoms that your kids are watching.
Speaker B:Yeah, right.
Speaker B:And what were they?
Speaker B:What are they watching?
Speaker A:They're watching Family Matters, Home Improvement.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Both all surprisingly edgy in modern day times.
Speaker A:Yeah, I'm watching.
Speaker A:I'm like, really?
Speaker A:I.
Speaker A:My parents were cool with this.
Speaker B:Okay, you want to know what was wild to me?
Speaker B:So my mom and I, when I was a kid, we used to watch that show Dinosaurs.
Speaker B:About Dinosaurs.
Speaker B:Oh yeah, Remember that show?
Speaker B:Not the mama.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I don't know this, but okay.
Speaker B:I watched the first episode of this show again recently I found on YouTube and my mom came to visit me and I was like, this will be a dope surprise.
Speaker B:Like reminisce about when I was a kid.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:We were very poor.
Speaker B:We could barely afford anything.
Speaker B:Every once in a while we get a pizza and a 2 liter bottle of soda and I mean, dude, this was like the Friday night.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Oh, wow.
Speaker A:Oh, I remember this.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So we watched the first episode and I mean, this is, this is a show about dinosaurs.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:You could not play that episode today without being fucking Racist.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I mean, it was.
Speaker B:It was.
Speaker B:And this is a Jim Henson product.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:But I mean, just so much.
Speaker B:And I don't know if it's because my social.
Speaker B:My social norms have.
Speaker B:Have changed.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Or if it's society is different or if we were just a lot looser, but I don't know.
Speaker B:But like, I mean, it wasn't just racism.
Speaker B:It was like an insensitivity to women.
Speaker B:It was like, women are in the home, men are cooking.
Speaker B:I mean, it was very.
Speaker B:You could not play this on television today.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:I mean, I don't know if it was.
Speaker A:I don't think a lot of stuff back then was done, you know, to being with the idea of we're being insensitive.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:It.
Speaker A:I think it was.
Speaker A:There was a lot of social norms and traditional norms back then that a lot of people live by.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And that was just what everyone kind of knew.
Speaker A:I don't know.
Speaker A:There's something to be said about, like, how easy, how sensitive we all are nowadays.
Speaker A:Way too sensitive, honestly.
Speaker A:It's.
Speaker A:It's too much.
Speaker B:And I catch myself sometimes.
Speaker B:I'm like, damn, why are you talking like that in front of kids?
Speaker B:And I'm like, ah.
Speaker A:Like, can you imagine?
Speaker A:Can you imagine, like, being at a park and somebody telling your kid, like, if your kid was acting out and like, back then, another adult could tell your kid.
Speaker A:Ace, cut it out, bro.
Speaker B:I lost it on my neighbor a couple days ago, Taylor, for doing something like that.
Speaker B:She comes downstairs, she's like, we have a narrow walkway and it is love 100.
Speaker B:She's like, it was seven, like 50.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:She's like, it's almost eight o' clock and I have to get up early tomorrow.
Speaker B:Oh, boy.
Speaker B:And I let her go because, like, I get it.
Speaker B:Like, you know, sometimes you got good days and bad days.
Speaker B:We all got bad days.
Speaker B:Like, I'm like, whatever.
Speaker B:Like I'm.
Speaker B:I respect it.
Speaker B:And I was cool right up until the end.
Speaker B:She goes, I don't know what you guys are teaching your kids.
Speaker B:I looked at her, I'm like, stop right there.
Speaker B:Stop right there.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:I said, I've never disrespected you.
Speaker B:She was literally right across from me.
Speaker B:I've never disrespected you.
Speaker B:I'm not going to tolerate you disrespecting me or my family.
Speaker B:Okay?
Speaker B:You could have just came down here and asked us nicely.
Speaker B:I understand that, I said, but when you come out here, you start questioning my ability to parents.
Speaker B:You're too young to have kids.
Speaker B:Number one, right?
Speaker B:Number two, it's eight o', clock.
Speaker B:Okay?
Speaker B:It's not like it's 10pm City curfew.
Speaker B:I said it's loud.
Speaker B:I understand that, but don't disrespect me.
Speaker B:Don't disrespect my family, and don't.
Speaker B:Don't ever do this in front of my son again.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's uncalled for.
Speaker B:Yeah, right?
Speaker A:I mean, nowadays, like, I was when.
Speaker A:I remember when I was 10 years old, right?
Speaker A:And my son's approaching 10 at the end of this month, and I was having this conversation with the barber, and he were like, it's so crazy that during the summer now, like, I have to enroll them in camps, right?
Speaker A:All day long because they're not allowed to be home alone, right?
Speaker A:I remember when I was 10 years old.
Speaker A:Hey, don't open the door for anyone.
Speaker A:Don't pick up the phone if you hear.
Speaker A:Because you know when they use.
Speaker A:When they would leave a voice message or a voicemail, right?
Speaker A:Like, it would, come on, be like, hey, it's me.
Speaker A:Pick up the phone.
Speaker A:And then I'd pick it up, bro.
Speaker B:I used to walk to school in the middle of, like, gang territory of Santa Ana, back in his bed.
Speaker A:You know what I mean?
Speaker B:They were literally prostitutes walking up on the street that knew my mom by name, right?
Speaker B:Like, aren't you Susan's kid?
Speaker B:I'm like, what the.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:You know what I'm saying?
Speaker B:My mama talked.
Speaker B:My mom's from the Midwest.
Speaker B:She talked to everybody.
Speaker A:Talk to everybody.
Speaker A:And I'm like, dude, if I.
Speaker A:If I even insinuated or like, you know, started fix my lips to say I was gonna leave my kids home alone.
Speaker B:Oh, my God.
Speaker A:CPS at the house tomorrow.
Speaker B:Hey, bro, you a terrible parent.
Speaker A:Burn.
Speaker B:Yeah, bro, I can tell you so many stories.
Speaker B:I was in fourth grade.
Speaker B:That's how I got, like, third degree burns.
Speaker B:Just echo your sentiment of probably not leaving me.
Speaker B:Good.
Speaker B:That was a good idea.
Speaker B:But, you know, like, I was at home by myself.
Speaker B:Yeah, right?
Speaker B:I was taking care of my sister.
Speaker B:Like, when I.
Speaker B:She was 6, I was 12.
Speaker A:But, dude, there's something to be said about.
Speaker A:Okay, and then parents now and.
Speaker A:And all the helicopter parents that are going on, like, what?
Speaker A:The independence that the kids are losing.
Speaker A:How are they ever gonna gain it?
Speaker A:At what.
Speaker A:At what stage are they gaining it?
Speaker B:I don't even know.
Speaker B:You can't, man.
Speaker B:And here, you know, you gotta pay for the bus now to pick a kid up.
Speaker B:No, you pay for that.
Speaker A:Oh, man.
Speaker B:Here, right?
Speaker A:I don't know.
Speaker B:Yeah, you gotta.
Speaker B:If your kid rides the bus, you gotta pay now.
Speaker A:So the way, the way my kid's school works, okay, is there's the school, and it's a massive school compared to the old one because you just transfer schools and there's a park attached to it.
Speaker A:Okay, that's cool.
Speaker A:I don't, I'm not gonna wait in this long line to, like, wait so I can pick my son up at.
Speaker A:In front of the gate.
Speaker A:I go park at the park.
Speaker A:He doesn't have to cross any streets, right?
Speaker A:And he walks to me like a lot of other kids.
Speaker A:I told a couple parents that I do this.
Speaker A:You don't pick your kid up at the gate.
Speaker A:I'm like, man, can he not walk, like, from there to there without somebody judging me?
Speaker A:Like, I don't understand.
Speaker A:Like, let the kid, Let the kid have a little bit of independence.
Speaker B:I used to believe you do that.
Speaker A:I used to.
Speaker B:Terrible.
Speaker A:I used to pick him up at the gate until he was like 7, 8.
Speaker B:But something happens to him, dog.
Speaker A:Let him talk to his friends on the way out.
Speaker B:Up.
Speaker A:What if you know something happens to him?
Speaker A:No, it's like, come on, man.
Speaker A:Like, we gotta give these kids a little bit of freedom.
Speaker A:Wow.
Speaker B:There you go.
Speaker A:Whether you, whether you have to pay for a school bus depends entirely on your school district, as policies vary significantly.
Speaker A:While many districts provide free transportation, others charge fees, often 200 to 500 annually.
Speaker B:Yeah, man, there you go.
Speaker A:Pay up.
Speaker B:You're in the ones that pay annually, by the way.
Speaker B:Just full disclosure.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Guess what?
Speaker A:You're gonna pay.
Speaker A:You're gonna pay to ride.
Speaker B:Yeah, it's a problem.
Speaker B:All right, I want to wrap this show up in the meaningful way because get back to where we were at here.
Speaker B:All right?
Speaker B:This is from Reuters.
Speaker B:Breaking views.
Speaker B:Gulf conflict has already laid up a Fed trap.
Speaker B:And I'm going to go ahead and paraphrase this because we're running out of time.
Speaker B:The core argument is that even if Iran's ceasefire holds, the Fed may still be stuck with the inflation fallout from the energy shock that has already happened.
Speaker B:So this plan has been set in motion.
Speaker B:There's not much we can do to really deviate from what comes after.
Speaker B:Afterward.
Speaker B:It's like tariffs.
Speaker B:Hit us with tariffs, there's a trickle down effect.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:You are now being effectively hit with the tariffs.
Speaker B:That is war.
Speaker B:And because of the volatility in pricing and the oil and the region ceasing, you're going to see the impacts of this, whether it's Fertilizer, whether it's gas prices, whether that's just overall economic disaster that's coming.
Speaker A:Helium.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Reuters Breaking View says the gasoline prices jumped fast, but any relief will likely come much more slowly.
Speaker B:While higher energy costs keep filtering into transportation, manufacturing, other parts of the economy, airlines for example, and travel.
Speaker B:The article's bigger point is that it's it.
Speaker B:This is a familiar Fed problem.
Speaker B: compares the current setup to: Speaker B:So again, that it's stickier than we thought it was.
Speaker B:It would be around for a long time.
Speaker B:Yeah, same problem just four years ago.
Speaker B:Okay, this is not revolutionary yet.
Speaker B:We're all like, what is new, huh?
Speaker B:In that earlier episode, the Fed reversed course and raise rates aggressively.
Speaker B:And the price.
Speaker B:The piece that I read, like I should say here, argues that today's Gulf crisis, conflict, risk.
Speaker B:Recreating another version of that same trip also pushes back on the idea that lower oil headlines automatically mean lower inflation.
Speaker B:I don't think so.
Speaker B:I think it's going to be a persisting issue.
Speaker B:The author of the article noted that even if the energy prices ease later, the second order effects may already be embedded.
Speaker B:Petroleum dependent sectors can still pass along higher cost to the consumer.
Speaker B:You, me, Regil, everybody.
Speaker A:Yep.
Speaker B:Bank of America Economist cited the piece in.
Speaker B:The piece projected a sharp monthly CPI increase in March with core prices still rising as well.
Speaker B:There you go.
Speaker B:So that's a show, kids.
Speaker B:That's the show we out here putting into twerks.
Speaker A:Hopefully everybody enjoyed that episode.
Speaker A:You could, if you really enjoyed it, and you wanna, you wanna help, help your boys out over here at the higher standard.
Speaker A:What you could do is send this episode, you know, to a family member, a friend, a colleague, a fellow investor.
Speaker B:No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
Speaker B:What are you gonna do?
Speaker A:You're gonna leave us an honest five star review?
Speaker B:No, you're gonna go into your email, okay, and you're gonna select all and you're gonna send it to all your contacts.
Speaker B:Okay?
Speaker A:I don't understand why they haven't done it.
Speaker A:Honestly, if you're.
Speaker B:I inadvertently sent you guys two newsletters this week.
Speaker A:I know.
Speaker A:You did.
Speaker B:I did.
Speaker B:I did that because.
Speaker B:So this is a true story.
Speaker B:I was in LA looking at properties and the AI sent the newsletter and I'm like, hey, man, yeah, the goddamn merch stuff didn't show up again.
Speaker B:And my thoughts didn't roll into this.
Speaker B:You were supposed to Fix that.
Speaker B:And he goes, oh, my bad.
Speaker B:And I put the phone down, right, yeah.
Speaker B:He goes, my bad.
Speaker B:I'll send another one and send another one.
Speaker B:I'm like, no.
Speaker B:Bastard.
Speaker B:No.
Speaker B:But he did fix it the second time.
Speaker A:It did.
Speaker A:I noticed.
Speaker A:Or.
Speaker A:Or you could be a walking billboard for us and head over to thspod.com.
Speaker A:Buy yourself some merch.
Speaker A:Get your merch.
Speaker A:Get your merch.
Speaker A:I gotta buy some new merch.
Speaker B:Yeah, I do too.
Speaker B:It's been a while.
Speaker B:I gotta.
Speaker B:I gotta create some new merch.
Speaker B:I'm gonna get maybe an LN LNG Liquid Natural Gas shirt.
Speaker B:I like it.
Speaker A:I like it.
Speaker B:We give you the.
Speaker A:You should put your tushy affiliate code on there too.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:I haven't actually.
Speaker B:I've been really upset with them because they spam me, but it's all different.
Speaker A:Tushy, tushy.
Speaker A:That's right.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Liquid natural gas sponsored by the higher standard.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:All gas, no facts.
Speaker A:That's also good.
Speaker B:It's fitting.
Speaker A:It is fitting because I know you'd be dropping bombs in here and I just don't.
Speaker A:Just because I don't call them out does not mean I don't actually am.
Speaker B:Not a daytime farter of a nighttime farter.
Speaker A:Is that why we record at night?
Speaker B:Yeah, I try to entrap you guys.
Speaker B:That's why this room is hot boxed every single night.
Speaker B:You know what I would love to do?
Speaker B:I don't smoke cigars, but I don't drink anymore.
Speaker B:We should have like a cigar episode in here.
Speaker A:A cigar.
Speaker A:I've never enjoyed a good cigar.
Speaker B:Really?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Is it the big brown thing in your mouth or what?
Speaker A:I'm not used to having big brown.
Speaker B:Things in my mouth.
Speaker B:Yeah, I get it.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Okay, well, I mean, if you're.
Speaker A:I'll.
Speaker A:I'll try anything.
Speaker A:I am.
Speaker A:I am still very much like.
Speaker A:I do hookah.
Speaker A:I love it.
Speaker A:I can make a good hookah.
Speaker A:Oh, my dad too.
Speaker A:Do every.
Speaker A:Every night, man.
Speaker B:Yeah, we could do hook in here.
Speaker B:There's no.
Speaker B:There's no fire alarms.
Speaker B:I built this place.
Speaker A:Yeah, we could do.
Speaker A:We could do that.
Speaker A:I caught a mosquito.
Speaker B:You really?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:What are you doing over there?
Speaker B:What is.
Speaker B:What's going on?
Speaker A:I'm showing the camera the mosquito.
Speaker B:That makes sense.
Speaker A:I feel like an influencer.
Speaker A:Shows off the rails.
Speaker A:All right, you got anything else?
Speaker B:We were on the rails.
Speaker B:Was it a liquid natural gas section?
Speaker A:It was your immaturity, sir, that.
Speaker A:Calm down, hunter.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:Been a while since we haven't had a hunter.
Speaker B:Reference in a while.
Speaker B:Makes sense.
Speaker B:Before tomorrow's podcast.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker A:Hopefully everybody enjoyed that episode with Chad Bianco.
Speaker B:Sheriff Chad Bianco to you, sir.
Speaker A:Sheriff.
Speaker A:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker B:Thank you.
Speaker A:Thank you for his service.
Speaker B:Hey, look, look.
Speaker B:He's not listening.
Speaker A:He's.
Speaker A:Honestly.
Speaker A:He ain't paying attention.
Speaker B:Let me say this.
Speaker B:When he came in, I did not know what to expect.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:I hadn't done a lot of due diligence because I wanted.
Speaker B:I like interviewing people fresh.
Speaker A:I'm not gonna lie.
Speaker A:Everybody, when you.
Speaker A:When you meet somebody for the first time, I have my own judgments, my own reservations immediately.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:That dude could not have been a nicer, more charismatic guy.
Speaker B:I did not see that coming.
Speaker A:He was unbelievably likable.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I don't know if it's media training.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Or if just two faces.
Speaker A:I don't think so, man.
Speaker A:He seemed very authentic.
Speaker A:Tick.
Speaker B:He was nice.
Speaker B:I liked him.
Speaker B:I did not expect to like him.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:He was good.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:It was crazy having somebody here with a Glock on there.
Speaker A:There's something.
Speaker A:All right, man.
Speaker B:Bro.
Speaker B:I don't want to give away the details of a security team, but there's background checks, weapons.
Speaker A:Yeah, look, I'm good, man.
Speaker A:Go ahead.
Speaker B:Yeah, it's.
Speaker A:Pat me down.
Speaker B:His last name is Omar.
Speaker B:You should arrest him.
Speaker B:Yeah, I don't trust him at all.
Speaker B:Yeah, I got it.
Speaker A:I guess I didn't pass the rap sheet.
Speaker B:You did not pass the rap sheet.
Speaker B:Your.
Speaker B:Your name did not get the.
Speaker B:The background check.
Speaker B:They're like, he's For.
Speaker B:What are you Him.
Speaker A:He's probably just misspelled your name.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:He's half the man he used to be, guys.
Speaker B:Yeah, it don't look like him, Right?
Speaker B:Speaking of which, go to joinfridays.com.
Speaker B:Use code higher.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:How about the show?
Speaker A:How about your boys?
Speaker B:I'm gonna change the code to regil.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Make it spell it the right way, too.
Speaker B:Make everybody understand how fighting Fijian.
Speaker A:That might be too long.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I'm looking into getting to the nads.
Speaker A:The nad plus nad.
Speaker B:It's good.
Speaker B:I mean, I don't.
Speaker B:I don't like.
Speaker B:It's supposed to be better for sailor.
Speaker B:Health and young.
Speaker B:Young.
Speaker B:Young.
Speaker B:Like longevity, I guess.
Speaker B:Youth or whatever.
Speaker A:Talent of youth.
Speaker A:Is that what that is?
Speaker B:I don't want to go that far, but it will make you all look 10 years younger.
Speaker B:You should do it.
Speaker B:Oh.
Speaker B:Joinfride.
Speaker B:Com.
Speaker B:Hash Code higher.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Code higher.
Speaker B:All right, everybody.
Speaker A:Good night, everybody.
Speaker A:Bye.
Speaker B:It's a whiny buy.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Whiny by.
